Impact of the disability trajectory on the mortality risk of older adults in China

Trajectories and influencing factors of cognitive function and physical disability in Chinese older people

Introduction

Dementia and physical disability are serious problems faced by the aging population, and their occurrence and development interact.

Methods

Based on data from a national cohort of Chinese people aged 60 years and above from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey from 2011 to 2018, we applied the group-based trajectory model to identify the heterogeneous trajectories of cognitive function and physical disability in participants with different physical disability levels. Next, multinomial logistic regression models were used to explore the factors affecting these trajectories.

Results

The cognitive function trajectories of the Chinese older people could be divided into three characteristic groups: those who maintained the highest baseline level of cognitive function, those with a moderate baseline cognitive function and dramatic progression, and those with the worst baseline cognitive function and rapid-slow-rapid progression. The disability trajectories also fell into three characteristic groups: a consistently low baseline disability level, a low initial disability level with rapid development, and a high baseline disability level with rapid development. Compared with those free of physical disability at baseline, a greater proportion of participants who had physical disability at baseline experienced rapid cognitive deterioration. Education, income, type of medical insurance, gender, and marital status were instrumental in the progression of disability and cognitive decline in the participants.

Discussion

We suggest that the Chinese government, focusing on the central and western regions and rural areas, should develop education for the older people and increase their level of economic security to slow the rate of cognitive decline and disability among this age group. These could become important measures to cope with population aging.

Deep learning model for the prediction of all-cause mortality among long term care people in China: a prospective cohort study

This study aimed to develop a deep learning model to predict the risk stratification of all-cause death for older people with disability, providing guidance for long-term care plans. Based on the government-led long-term care insurance program in a pilot city of China from 2017 and followed up to 2021, the study included 42,353 disabled adults aged over 65, with 25,071 assigned to the training set and 17,282 to the validation set. The administrative data (including baseline characteristics, underlying medical conditions, and all-cause mortality) were collected to develop a deep learning model by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. After a median follow-up time of 14 months, 17,565 (41.5%) deaths were recorded. Thirty predictors were identified and included in the final models for disability-related deaths. Physical disability (mobility, incontinence, feeding), adverse events (pressure ulcers and falls from bed), and cancer were related to poor prognosis. A total of 10,127, 25,140 and 7086 individuals were classified into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, with actual risk probabilities of death of 9.5%, 45.8%, and 85.5%, respectively. This deep learning model could facilitate the prevention of risk factors and provide guidance for long-term care model planning based on risk stratification.

Comparing a new multimorbidity index with other multimorbidity measures for predicting disability trajectories

BACKGROUND

The optimal multimorbidity measures for predicting disability trajectories are not universally agreed upon. We developed a multimorbidity index among middle-aged and older community-dwelling Chinese adults and compare its predictive ability of disability trajectories with other multimorbidity measures.

METHODS

This study included 17,649 participants aged ≥50 years from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey 2011-2018. Two disability trajectory groups were estimated using the total disability score differences calculated between each follow-up visit and baseline. A weighted index was constructed using logistic regression models for disability trajectories based on the training set (70 %). The index and the condition count were used, along with the pattern identified by the latent class analysis to measure multimorbidity at baseline. Logistic regression models were used in the training set to examine associations between each multimorbidity measure and disability trajectories. C-statistics, integrated discrimination improvements, and net reclassification indices were applied to compare the performance of different multimorbidity measures in predicting disability trajectories in the testing set (30 %).

RESULTS

In the newly developed multimorbidity index, the weights of the chronic conditions varied from 1.04 to 2.55. The multimorbidity index had a higher predictive performance than the condition count. The condition count performed better than the multimorbidity pattern in predicting disability trajectories.

LIMITATION

Self-reported chronic conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

The multimorbidity index may be considered an ideal measurement in predicting disability trajectories among middle-aged and older community-dwelling Chinese adults. The condition count is also suggested due to its simplicity and superior predictive performance.

Adverse Childhood Experiences and Trajectories of ADL Disability among Middle-Aged and Older Adults in China: Findings from the CHARLS Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

There is little evidence on the association between adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and disability trajectories among middle-aged and older adults. This study aimed to investigate the association between ACEs and activities of daily living (ADL) trajectories over eight years of follow-up and the mediation role of different chronic diseases on this relationship.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study, eight-year follow-up.

SETTING

China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS).

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 10651 participants age 45 and over from CHARLS 2011 to 2018 were included in this study.

MEASUREMENTS

Five ACEs exposure groups were formed based on the cumulative ACE scores. A 6-item ADL score was used, including bathing, dressing, eating, getting in/out of bed, using the toilet, and controlling urination, to measure the ADL disability, and the group-based trajectory model (GBTM) was used to identify the ADL disability trajectories. Multinomial logistic regression was performed to investigate the association between ACEs and ADL disability trajectory memberships, and KHB-method was used to estimate the contribution of different chronic diseases on this relationship.

RESULTS

Of the 10651 participants, 9.64% showed a mild-increasing trajectory in terms of change in ADL score during follow-up, followed by the low-mild trajectory (32.00%) and low-low trajectory (58.36%). Compared with those without ACEs exposure, participants who had ≥4 ACEs were associated with an increased risk of being on low-mild trajectory (OR 1.32, 95%CI:1.11-1.57) and mild-increasing trajectory (OR 1.41, 95%CI: 1.06-1.89), respectively. Besides, mediation analysis revealed chronic diseases had a mediation effect in this association, with the largest effect from arthritis or rheumatism (over 60%), followed by digestive system disease (around 14%), respiratory disease (around 12%), and cardio-metabolic disease (around 5%).

CONCLUSION

This study suggested that exposure to ACEs was associated with a higher risk of being worse ADL disability trajectories. Moreover, chronic disease accounts for a meaningful proportion of this association. Further studies are needed to clarify how chronic diseases mediate the association between ACEs and ADL disability trajectories.

Physical frailty and health-related quality of life among Chinese rural older adults: a moderated mediation analysis of physical disability and physical activity

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study is to explore the mediating effect of physical disability as well as the role of physical activity (PA) as a moderator in the relationship between physical frailty and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among rural older adults in China.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional analysis.

SETTING

Rural households in Shandong of China (Rushan, Qufu, Laolin).

PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS

A survey was conducted among 3243 rural older adults. The data were collected using questionnaires measuring physical frailty, physical disability, HRQoL and PA. Bootstrap analyses were employed to explore the mediating effect of physical disability and also the moderating role of PA on physical frailty and HRQoL.

RESULTS

After controlling for age and education, physical disability partially mediated the effect of physical frailty on HRQoL (indirect effect=-0.143, 95% CI -0.175 to -0.113), with the mediating effect accounting for 33.71% of the total effect. PA moderated the relationship between physical frailty and physical disability as well as the relationship between physical disability and HRQoL. Specifically, the interaction term between physical frailty and PA significantly predicted physical disability (β=-0.120, t=-7.058, p<0.001), and the interaction term between physical disability and PA also had a significant predictive effect on HRQoL (β=0.115, t=6.104, p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

PA appears to moderate the indirect effect of physical disability on the association between physical frailty and HRQoL. This study provides support for potential mechanisms in the association between physical frailty and HRQoL. Encouraging rural older adults to increase PA appropriately might improve HRQoL for older adults with physical frailty and physical disability problems.

Cross-sectional association of residential greenness exposure with activities of daily living disability among urban elderly in Shanghai

AIM

Residential greenness exposure is associated with many health outcomes, including obesity, cardiovascular disease, and mental disorders. However, few studies have assessed the effects of greenness exposure on activities of daily living (ADL). This study evaluated the relationship between greenness and ADL among elderly residents with long-term care insurance (LTCI) in Shanghai, China.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional survey using stratified random sampling among elderly residents with LTCI in six districts of Shanghai in August 2018. We quantitatively assessed residential greenness using satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values with 250-, 500-, and 1000-m buffers around each participant's residential address. We calculated the walk score to assess neighborhood walkability. Physical function was assessed using basic ADL (BADL) and instrumental ADL (IADL). We performed binary logistic regression and restricted cubic splines with R software.

RESULTS

The study participants were 1067 adults with a mean age of 82.40 years (standard deviation, 7.68 years). The mean NDVI value was 0.311. In the fully adjusted model, being in the highest-tertile NDVI_500-m had a significant protective effect on BADL mild to none disability (odds ratio, 2.143; 95% confidence interval, 1.489-3.084) compared with participants in the lowest-tertile NDVI_500-m. Restricted cubic spline showed a non-linearity association between NDVI values and BADL and IADL mild to none disability.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate the importance of residential greenness exposure to physical function-especially for BADL disability. Well-designed longitudinal studies are needed to confirm our findings and investigate the underlying mechanisms.

Disability trajectories in activities of daily living of elderly Chinese before death

This study aims to analyze the changes in activities of daily living (ADL) of the Chinese elderly before death, and to explore the heterogeneity in this process. Using data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS), we quantify disability trajectories of ADL using a group-based trajectory model and find that there are three types of disability trajectory for ADL. The elderly who differ by socioeconomic status, childhood experiences, health behaviors, ages and birth cohorts show significant differences in their disability trajectories. Long duration of disability is found to be more prevalent in older females and people with high socioeconomic status. Good and stable status of ADL is more common among males and people of low socioeconomic status, while the elderly in an early cohort who died at older ages were more likely to have experienced a long duration of disability. Selective and protective effects contribute to the observed differences in trajectories.

Analysis of Risk Factors for Cognitive Dysfunction in Disabled Elderly Patients in Chengdu, China

Background

With the aging population comes an increase in functional disability that leads to dependency and institutionalization, as well as social, medical, and economic challenges. This study aimed to classify and assess the factors affecting cognitive deficits in disabled elderly people.

Material/Methods

Disabled patients ≥60 years old were assessed by face-to-face cross-sectional surveys, which were conducted using advanced peer-to-peer software. The ability to perform daily life tasks was assessed using the Modified Barthel Index. Cognitive function was evaluated with the Mini-cognitive assessment instrument. Using these surveys, 9471 individuals were included in this study. The rank-sum test was used to investigate differences between groups. Disordered multi-class logistic regression was used to correct related confounding factors for multivariate analysis.

Results

The ratios of normal cognitive function, cognitive impairment, and dementia were 3.71%, 38.59%, and 57.70%, respectively. The univariate analysis and multivariate analysis showed that older individuals (≥80 years), women, illiterate individuals, and lonely persons were more prone to dementia. Moreover, a history of hypertension, diabetes, osteoporosis, and fractures were significantly associated with dementia.

Conclusions

The proportion of dementia in the elderly disabled patients is very high (57.7%) in Chengdu City. Age (≥80 years), female sex, education level (illiterate individuals), living conditions, and chronic disease were closely correlated with cognitive functions.

Physical activity is associated with functional capacity of older women with osteosarcopenic obesity: 24-month prospective study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Physical activity (PA) could be effective in the prevention of functional disability in older women, especially for those with body composition abnormalities. The aim this study was to analyze the association of total PA and in different domains with physical function and functional capacity in older women with or without osteosarcopenic obesity (OSO), as well as to assess the risk of functional disability in osteosarcopenic obesity older women insufficiently active.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

The study included 152 Brazilian older women, aged 60 years and older. Body composition was measured by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and physical function by physical tests. Functional capacity and PA were self-reported.

RESULTS

In older women without OSO, the practice of leisure-time exercise (β:-0.23; 95%CI -0.40 to -0.06) and total PA (β:-0.40; 95%CI -0.57 to -0.23) is inversely associated with dependence in ADL. In older women with OSO, the practice of leisure-time exercise was inversely associated with physical function (β:0.88; 95%CI 0.31-1.46) and functional capacity (β:-1.05; 95%CI 1.64 to -0.45), while total PA (β:-1.03; 95%CI -1.93 to -0.13) was inversely associated with functional capacity, independent of control variables. In addition, older women with OSO who remained insufficiently active in leisure-time exercise (HR:2.28; 95%CI 1.04-4.99) and locomotion (HR:2.62; 95%CI 1.28-5.36) domains presented risk for functional disability.

CONCLUSIONS

PA is inversely associated with physical function and functional capacity in older women with or without OSO, and older women with OSO who are insufficiently active in leisure-time exercise and locomotion domains presented a higher risk for functional disability.

Cross-sectional and Longitudinal Associations of Environmental Factors with Frailty and Disability in Older People

PURPOSE

To determine cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of environmental factors with frailty and disability.

METHODS

This study was conducted in a sample of Dutch citizens. At baseline the sample consisted of 429 subjects (aged ≥ 65 years); a subset of this sample participated again two and half years later (N = 355). The participants completed a web-based questionnaire, "the Senioren Barometer", comprising seven scales for assessing environmental factors, and the Tilburg Frailty Indicator (TFI) and the Groningen Activity Restriction Scale (GARS), for assessing frailty and disability, respectively. Environmental factors of interest were: nuisance; housing; facilities; residents; neighborhood; stench/noise; and traffic.

RESULTS

Sequential regression analyses demonstrated that all environmental factors together explained a significant part of the variance of physical and social frailty and disability in performing activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), measured at Time 1 (T1) and Time 2 (T2). These analyses also showed that four of the environmental factors were associated with at least one of the outcome measures: housing, nuisance, residents, and neighborhood. Housing was the only environmental factor associated with three different outcome measures (social frailty, ADL disability, IADL disability), assessed at T1 and T2.

CONCLUSION

The findings offer health-care and welfare professionals and also policymakers starting points for interventions. These interventions should focus, in particular, on housing, nuisance, residents, and neighborhood, because their impact on frailty and/or disability was the largest.