Risk factors for three-month mortality after discharge in a cohort of non-oncologic hospitalized elderly patients: Results from the REPOSI study

Prognostic models and factors identifying end-of-life in non-cancer chronic diseases: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Precise prognostic information, if available, is very helpful for guiding treatment decisions and resource allocation in patients with non-cancer non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs). This study aimed to systematically review the existing evidence, examining prognostic models and factors for identifying end-of-life non-cancer NCD patients.

METHODS

Electronic databases, including Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, PsychINFO and other sources, were searched from the inception of these databases up until June 2023. Studies published in English with findings mentioning prognostic models or factors related to identifying end-of-life in non-cancer NCD patients were included. The quality of studies was assessed using the Quality in Prognosis Studies tool.

RESULTS

The analysis included data from 41 studies, with 16 focusing on chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD), 10 on dementia, 6 on heart failure and 9 on mixed NCDs. Traditional statistical modelling was predominantly used for the identified prognostic models. Common predictors in COPD models included dyspnoea, forced expiratory volume in 1 s, functional status, exacerbation history and body mass index. Models for dementia and heart failure frequently included comorbidity, age, gender, blood tests and nutritional status. Similarly, mixed NCD models commonly included functional status, age, dyspnoea, the presence of skin pressure ulcers, oral intake and level of consciousness. The identified prognostic models exhibited varying predictive accuracy, with the majority demonstrating weak to moderate discriminatory performance (area under the curve: 0.5-0.8). Additionally, most of these models lacked independent external validation, and only a few underwent internal validation.

CONCLUSION

Our review summarised the most relevant predictors for identifying end-of-life in non-cancer NCDs. However, the predictive accuracy of identified models was generally inconsistent and low, and lacked external validation. Although efforts to improve these prognostic models should continue, clinicians should recognise the possibility that disease heterogeneity may limit the utility of these models for individual prognostication; they may be more useful for population level health planning.

Long-term care status for the elderly with different levels of physical ability: a cross-sectional survey in first-tier cities of China

BACKGROUND

Long term care (LTC) services for functionally impaired senior citizens are crucial for addressing the challenges of aging. However, research on eligibility criteria and coverage of LTC in China is lacking. Our objective is to assess the current status of LTC and explore eligibility criteria and coverage for the elderly.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional study conducted in two first-tier cities in China. Residents aged 65 or over were recruited from a nursing home and four primary hospitals. Participants were divided into three groups (bedridden, domestic, and community), then six grades (grade one to six) according to the Longshi Scale, and their functional ability was assessed using the Modified Barthel Index. Information such as diseases, complications, and daily care needs were collected. Nursing staff were invited to indicate patients' needs for care. A one-way ANOVA test, Kruskal Wallis H test and Mann-Whitney U test were used to explore the differences of variables in three Longshi groups or Longshi grades.

RESULTS

Among all 1157 participants, with an average age of 80.54, 69.3% were in the bedridden group. The most common diagnosis was stroke (71.4%), with the most prevalent complication being pulmonary infection (25.2%). In the nursing assessment, basic health care, disease care, activity care, complication prevention care and psychosocial care were summarized as the five main aspects of LTC for the elderly. Feeding, bathing, drinking, bowel management and bladder management were identified as the basic care which fulfills participants' basic physical needs in each Longshi group. Mouth care, artificial airway management, and body reposition, which can prevent immobility complications, were highly demanded by bedridden elderly.

CONCLUSIONS

The elderly in grade one to three are the ones in need of LTC most. The content of LTC for elderly should include basic care which fulfills their basic physical needs and complication care which can prevent immobility complications. The evidence of this research may contribute to the design of LTC in China.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study design was registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR-2000034067, Registered 22 Jun 2020, http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=54770 ).

The role of geriatricians in hospital palliative care units for elderly patients affected by end stage diseases

OBJECTIVE

To show the importance of geriatricians in the assessment and treatment of patients with terminal illnesses requiring palliative care.

METHODS

This was a retrospective epidemiological study, in which the authors used data relating to 229 patients with terminal stage cancer/advanced chronic diseases, which were evaluated by a palliative care team and collected from January to December 2018.

RESULTS

The average age of the sample was 72 years. The sample was divided into two groups, called 'advanced cancer' (N=161, 70.3%) and 'advanced chronic diseases' (N=68, 29.6%). The authors found that patients with advanced chronic diseases had the highest age, highest number of comorbidities and higher indicators of complex care. The authors also showed that, in advanced chronic diseases, the factors that are associated with increased hospital death are: bedridden (OR=3,778; 95% CI=1,371-10,409), dysphagia (OR=2,038; 95% CI=1,005-4,133) and a higher number of diseases (OR=1,446; 95% CI=1,179-1,774).

DISCUSSION

Given these findings, there is a high prevalence of elderly hospitalised patients with advanced chronic end-stage disease, a classic geriatric condition, who need access to palliative care services.

CONCLUSION

The authors believe that an increase in geriatricians dedicated to palliative care services is needed to ensure that these patients have equal access to continuity of care services and optimal treatment.

Frailty in Acute and Chronic Coronary Syndrome Patients Entering Cardiac Rehabilitation

Worldwide population ageing is partly due to advanced standard of care, leading to increased incidence and prevalence of geriatric syndromes such as frailty and disability. Hence, the age at the onset of acute coronary syndromes (ACS) keeps growing as well. Moreover, ageing is a risk factor for both frailty and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Frailty and CVD in the elderly share pathophysiological mechanisms and associated conditions, such as malnutrition, sarcopenia, anemia, polypharmacy and both increased bleeding/thrombotic risk, leading to a negative impact on outcomes. In geriatric populations ACS is associated with an increased frailty degree that has a negative effect on re-hospitalization and mortality outcomes. Frail elderly patients are increasingly referred to cardiac rehabilitation (CR) programs after ACS; however, plans of care must be tailored on individual's clinical complexity in terms of functional capacity, nutritional status and comorbidities, cognitive status, socio-economic support. Completing rehabilitative intervention with a reduced frailty degree, disability prevention, improvement in functional state and quality of life and reduction of re-hospitalization are the goals of CR program. Tools for detecting frailty and guidelines for management of frail elderly patients post-ACS are still debated. This review focused on the need of an early identification of frail patients in elderly with ACS and at elaborating personalized plans of care and secondary prevention in CR setting.

Three-month mortality in permanently bedridden medical non-oncologic patients. The BECLAP study (permanently BEdridden, creatinine CLearance, albumin, previous hospital admissions study)

OBJECTIVE

To predict the 3-months mortality in permanently bedridden medical non-oncologic inpatients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

2788 consecutive patients admitted in 5 Italian Internal Medicine units from January 2016 through January 2017 were prospectively screened; 644 oncologic patients were excluded; 2144 non-oncologic patients (1021 female) were followed-up for mortality for 6 months. Main outcome was 3-months mortality in permanently bedridden inpatients with at least 2 of: creatinine clearance <35 ml/min; albumin < 2.5 g/dl; at least 2 hospital admissions in the previous 6 months. Advanced dementia and dysphagia were also recorded.

RESULTS

Mean age of the 2144 patients was 73.9 (SD, 14.9) years; 374 (17%) were permanently bedridden, 435 (20%) had a creatinine clearance <35 ml/min, 217 (10%) albumin <2,5 g/dl, 112 (5%) at least 2 hospital admissions in the previous 6 months. Seventy-seven (4%) patients were permanently bedridden with at least 2 of the above mentioned items, and 48 of them died within 3 months (62%) (p < 0.001;95% CI 51-73%). Regression coefficients of the variables associated with 3-months mortality in multivariate analysis in 998 patients of unit 1 (training cohort) were used to create a simple score, which was validated in the 1146 patients of the other units (validation cohort) and performed well in predicting the 3-months mortality (https://www.ejcrim.com/beclap/).

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately two out of three non-oncologic medical patients permanently bedridden having 2 of the abovementioned items are dead 3 months after index admission; a simple score including bedridden status, creatinine clearance, albumin, dysphagia, age and sex may help discuss management priorities.

Factors associated with death in bedridden patients in China: A longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Immobility is common and associated with adverse outcomes in hospitalized patients, especially older people. However, the factors contributing to mortality in bedridden patients are not well known. This study aimed to estimate short-term mortality and analyze risk factors that affect the prognosis of bedridden patients.

METHODS

This was a multicenter study in China involving 23,738 patients admitted to 25 hospitals between November 2015 and June 2016. All-cause mortality was recorded for 90 days after enrollment regardless of whether death occurred before or after discharge. Socio-demographic and clinical information was obtained from an electronic database. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with mortality.

RESULTS

In total, 23,738 hospitalized bedridden patients, there were 1,114 (4.7%) observed deaths. The overall mortality rate was therefore 4.7%. Of these, 318 (1.4%) died while hospitalized and 796 (3.4%) after discharge. The univariate Cox regression analysis showed that variables significantly associated with 90-day mortality included total time spent bedridden, urinary tract infection and pulmonary infection (p<0.05). The multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the independent risk factors for death were age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.006, 95% CI 1.000-1.011), and pulmonary infection (aHR 1.439, 95% CI 1.266-1.635). The hazard ratios for mortality were reduced with urinary tract infection and more time spent bedridden.

CONCLUSIONS

The mortality after discharge was significantly higher than mortality in hospital. The factors affecting short-term mortality in bedridden patients included age, time spent bedridden, urinary tract infection and pulmonary infection. This suggests these factors may be potential predictors of mortality in bedridden patients. It is essential for medical staff to improve health education of patients and family members, pay more attention to follow up after discharge and meet care needs at home.

Alzheimer's disease medication and outcomes of hospitalisation among patients with dementia

AIMS

The use of Alzheimer disease medication for the treatment of dementia symptoms has shown significant benefits with regards to functional and cognitive outcomes as well as nursing home placement (NHP) and mortality. Hospitalisations in these patient groups are characterised by extended length of stays (LOS), frequent readmissions, frequent NHP and high-mortality rates. The impact of Alzheimer disease medication on the aforementioned outcomes remains still unknown. This study assessed the association of Alzheimer disease medication with outcomes of hospitalisation among patients with Alzheimer disease and other forms of dementia.

METHODS

A dynamic retrospective cohort study from 2004 to 2015 was conducted which claims data from a German health insurance company. People with dementia (PWD) were identified using ICD-10 codes and diagnostic measures. The main predictor of interest was the use of Alzheimer disease medication. Hospitalisation outcomes included LOS, readmissions, NHP and mortality during and after hospitalisation across four hospitalisations. Confounding was addressed using a propensity score throughout all analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 1380 users of Alzheimer disease medication and 6730 non-users were identified. The use of Alzheimer disease medication was associated with significantly shorter LOS during the first hospitalisations with estimates for the second, third and fourth showed a tendency towards shorter hospital stays. In addition, current users of Alzheimer disease medication had a lower risk of hospital readmission after the first two hospitalisations. These associations were not significant for the third and fourth hospitalisations. Post-hospitalisation NHP and mortality rates also tended to be lower among current users than among non-users but differences did not reach statistical significance.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that Alzheimer disease medication might contribute to a reduction of the LOS and the number of readmissions in PWD.

Validation of the PROFUND index to predict early post-hospital discharge mortality

BACKGROUND

The PROFUND index (PI) is a prognostic scale for polypathological patients at 12 months. The objective of the study was to validate the PI as a predictor of 1-year mortality in a current cohort of polypathological patients and analyse its prognostic usefulness in the short-term (1 month and 3 months) after discharge from Internal Medicine.

DESIGN

We conducted a prospective observational study and all polypathological patients discharged from an Internal Medicine Department between 01 March 2016 and 28 February 2017 were enrolled.

METHODS

The variables recorded for each patient were age, sex, diseases and diagnostic categories defining patients as polypathological patients, PI at discharge, number of hospital admissions, length of stay, vital status at 1 year, and date and place of death if applicable. Follow-up lasted 1 year from the time of enrolment.

RESULTS

Six hundred and ten polypathological patients were enrolled. Mortality was 41% and the patients who died were older, their length of stay was longer and their PI was higher compared with those who survived. The discrimination of the PI for predicting mortality was good, with a C-statistic of 0.718 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67-0.76]. In addition, a subgroup of patients with early mortality after discharge was identified, with a C-statistic of 0.74 (95% CI 0.67-0.80) at 30 days and 0.73 (95% CI 0.68-0.78) at 90 days.

CONCLUSIONS

The PI is a valid tool for predicting early and 1-year mortality in polypathological patients after discharge from Internal Medicine.

Clinico-pathological Features of Colon Cancer Patients Undergoing Emergency Surgery: A Comparison Between Elderly and Non-elderly Patients

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common cancers in patients older than 65 years. Emergency presentation represents about 30% of cases, with increased morbidity and mortality rates. The aim of this study is to compare the perioperative outcome between elderly and non-elderly patients undergoing emergency surgery.

METHOD

We retrospectively analysed CRC patients that underwent emergency surgery at the Departments of Surgery of the Sapienza University Sant'Andrea Hospital in Rome, and at San Donato Hospital in Arezzo, between June 2012 and June 2017. Patients were divided into two groups: non-elderly (< 65 years) and elderly (≥ 65 years). Variables analysed were sex, onset symptoms, associated disease, ASA score, tumor site and TNM stage, surgical procedures and approach, and morbidity and mortality.

RESULTS

Of a total of 123 patients, 29 patients were non-elderly and 94 patients were elderly. No significant differences were observed in sex, onset symptoms and tumor site between the two groups. Comorbidities were significantly higher in elderly patients (73.4% vs 41.4%, p<0.001). No significant differences were observed between the two groups in surgical approach and the rate of one-stage procedures. Elderly patients were more frequently treated by Hartmann's procedure compared to non-elderly patients (20.2% vs 6.9%). Left colorectal resection with protective ileostomy was most frequent in the non-elderly group (27.6% vs 11.7%). No significant differences were found in the pT and pN categories of the TNM system between the two groups. However, a higher number of T3 in non-elderly patients was observed. A consistent number of non-oncologically adequate resections were observed in the elderly (21.3% vs 3.5%; p<0.03). The morbidity rate was significantly higher in the elderly group (31.9 % vs 3.4%, p<0.001). No significant difference was found in the mortality rate between the two groups, being 13.8% in the elderly and 6.9% in the non-elderly.

CONCLUSIONS

Emergency colorectal surgery for cancer still presents significant morbidity and mortality rates, especially in elderly patients. More aggressive tumors and advanced stages were more frequent in the non-elderly group and as a matter it should be taken into account when treating such patients in the emergency setting in order to perform a radical procedure as much as possible.

High delayed mortality after the first episode of Clostridium difficile infection

Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is characterized by a high delayed and unrelated mortality. Predicting delayed mortality in CDI patients could allow the implementation of interventions that could reduce these events. A prospective multicentric study was carried out to investigate prognostic factors associated with mortality. It was based on a cohort (July 2015 to February 2016) of 295 patients presenting with CDI. Logistic regression was used and the model was calibrated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The mortality rate at 75 days in our series was 18%. Age (>65 years), comorbidity (defined by heart failure, diabetes mellitus with any organ lesion, renal failure, active neoplasia or immunosuppression) and fecal incontinence at clinical presentation were associated with delayed (75-day) mortality. When present, each of the aforementioned variables added one point to the score. Mortalities with 0, 1, 2 and 3 points were 0%, 9.4%, 18.5% and 38.2%, respectively. The area under the ROC curve was 0.743, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test p value was 0.875. Therefore, the prediction of high delayed mortality in CDI patients by our scoring system could promote measures for increasing survival in suitable cases.

Polypharmacy in older people: lessons from 10 years of experience with the REPOSI register

As a consequence of population aging, we have witnessed in internal medicine hospital wards a progressive shift from a population of in-patients relatively young and mainly affected by a single ailment to one of ever older and more and more complex patients with multiple chronic diseases, followed as out-patients by many different specialists with poor integration and inevitably treated with multiple medications. Polypharmacy (defined as the chronic intake of five or more drugs) is associated with increased risks of drug-drug interactions and related adverse effects, prescription and intake errors, poor compliance, re-hospitalization and mortality. With this background, the Italian Society of Internal Medicine chose to start in 2008 a prospective register called REPOSI (REgistro POliterapie SIMI, Società Italiana di Medicina Interna) in internal medicine and geriatric hospital wards. The country wide register is an ongoing observatory on multimorbidity and polypharmacy in the oldest old, with the goal to improve prescription appropriateness and, thus to avoid potentially inappropriate medications. The main findings of the register, that has accrued so far, 7005 older patients throughout a 10 year period, are summarized herewith, with special emphasis on the main patterns of poor prescription appropriateness and related risks of adverse events.