Development and validation of novel scoring system for the prediction of disease recurrence following resection of colorectal liver metastasis

Patterns of recurrence after curative intent hepatic resection for colorectal liver metastasis

BACKGROUND

Improved surgical techniques and more intensive systemic therapy have increased the number of patients with oligometastatic colorectal cancer eligible for resection, but a significant percentage of these cases will ultimately recur. Furthermore, distinct recurrence patterns have been associated with different outcomes.

METHODS

Data for 195 patients who underwent curative-intent colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) resection between 2016 and 2022 at Johns Hopkins Hospital were retrospectively collected. Cox regression univariate and multivariate analyses identified features associated with survival outcomes. Association between risk factors and site of recurrences was conducted via logistic regression with initial recurrences grouped into intrahepatic-only, extrahepatic-only, and concurrent intra- and extrahepatic recurrence.

RESULTS

The 1- and 2-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates were 46% and 22%, respectively. The 1- and 2-year overall survival (OS) rates were 95% and 88%, respectively. The median OS was 71.7 months. Multivariate analysis identified age <60 years, N2 nodal status, R1 liver margin, and higher preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen as top prognostic factors for worse RFS. Additionally, patients with left-sided primary tumors had a higher risk of intrahepatic-only recurrence, whereas mutant KRAS was associated with a higher risk of extrahepatic recurrence with or without liver recurrence.

CONCLUSION

These results from a recent cohort of patients treated with current standard-of-care therapies identify features associated with elevated risk and specific patterns of recurrence. These insights into CRLM recurrence patterns support a larger prospective study to identify subgroups of patients who may require additional therapies to prevent recurrence.

Clinical Prediction Models for Prognosis of Colorectal Liver Metastases: A Comprehensive Review of Regression-Based and Machine Learning Models

Colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) is a disease entity that warrants special attention due to its high frequency and potential curability. Identification of "high-risk" patients is increasingly popular for risk stratification and personalization of the management pathway. Traditional regression-based methods have been used to derive prediction models for these patients, and lately, focus has shifted to artificial intelligence-based models, with employment of variable supervised and unsupervised techniques. Multiple endpoints, like overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS) and development or recurrence of postoperative complications have all been used as outcomes in these studies. This review provides an extensive overview of available clinical prediction models focusing on the prognosis of CRLM and highlights the different predictor types incorporated in each model. An overview of the modelling strategies and the outcomes chosen is provided. Specific patient and treatment characteristics included in the models are discussed in detail. Model development and validation methods are presented and critically appraised, and model performance is assessed within a proposed framework.

RAS mutation status in combination with the JSHBPS nomogram may be useful for preoperative identification of colorectal liver metastases with high risk of recurrence and mortality after hepatectomy

PURPOSE

To investigate the prognostic impact of RAS mutations on the Japanese Society of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgeons (JSHBPS) nomogram score in patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRLM) following hepatectomy.

METHODS

We included 218 consecutive patients undergoing hepatectomy for CRLM between 2004 and 2020. The JSHBPS nomogram score was calculated using six preoperative clinical factors. The score ranged from 0 to 25, and higher scores indicated greater tumor burden. Associations of RAS mutations with disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) by the JSHBPS nomogram score were examined. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

RAS mutations were detected in 72 (33%) of the 218 patients. Multivariate analyses revealed that RAS mutations were independently associated with poor DFS (HR, 1.93; 95% CI: 1.20-3.10; p = .007) and OS (HR, 2.65; 95% CI: 1.59-4.71; p = .001) compared with wild-type RAS with JSHBPS nomogram scores ≤ 10. However, in patients with scores ≥ 11, the association of RAS mutations with DFS or OS was not statistically significant (p > .08).

CONCLUSION

RAS mutation status in combination with the JSHBPS nomogram may be useful for preoperatively identifying CRLM with high risk of recurrence and mortality after hepatectomy.

Prognostic value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in colorectal cancer liver metastasis: A meta-analysis of results from multivariate analysis

We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRLM). A comprehensive search was conducted across PubMed, MedLine, and the Cochrane Library databases for articles published from January 1, 2000 to April 30, 2022 that investigated the long-term prognostic value of NLR in CRLM; only studies with multivariate analyses were enrolled. Hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was used to determine the effect size. A total of 2,522 patients in 12 studies were selected; the meta-analysis demonstrated that elevated NLR correlated with poor overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) (HR, 1.95, 95%CI, 1.698-2.223, P < 0.01; HR, 1.80, 95%CI, 1.363-2.363, P < 0.01; respectively). The 5-year OS and disease-free survival rates were higher in the patients with normal NLR than in patients with high NLR (47% vs. 27%, P < 0.01; 37% vs. 6%, P < 0.01, respectively). Further analysis of clinicopathological parameters indicated no significant difference between the patients with and without elevated NLR. Begg's and Egger's tests for publication bias revealed no significant publication bias (P = 0.891 and P = 0.926, respectively). Multivariate analysis revealed that NLR had an excellent prognostic ability in CRLM, which can be used in deciding the treatment and predicting the clinical outcomes. Further multicenter randomized controlled trials are required to verify this conclusion.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio as a prognostic factor for survival in patients with colorectal liver metastases: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

The inflammatory response to tumor has been proven to be closely related to the prognosis of colorectal cancer. Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a widely available inflammatory biomarker that may have prognostic value for patients with colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM).

AIM

To assess the role of NLR as a prognostic factor of survival and tumor recurrence in patients with CRLM.

METHODS

A systematic literature search of PubMed, Cochrane Library and clinicaltrials.gov was conducted by two independent researchers in order to minimize potential errors and bias. Conflicts were discussed and settled between three researchers. Studies including patients undergoing different types of medical interventions for the treatment of CRLM and evaluating the correlation between pretreatment NLR and disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were included in the review. Nineteen studies, involving 3283 patients matched our inclusion criteria.

RESULTS

In the studies included, NLR was measured before the intervention and the NLR thresholds ranged between 1.9 and 7.26. Most studies used 5 as the cut-off value. Liver metastases were treated with hepatectomy with or without chemotherapy regimens in 13 studies and with radiofrequency ablation, radioembolization, chemoembolization or solely with chemotherapy in 6 studies. High NLR was associated with decreased OS and DFS after liver resection or other medical intervention. Moreover, high NLR was associated with poor chemosensitivity. On the contrary, CRLM patients with low pretreatment NLR demonstrated improved OS and DFS. NLR could potentially be used as a predictive factor of survival and tumor recurrence in patients with CRLM treated with interventions of any modality, including surgery, chemotherapy and ablative techniques.

CONCLUSION

NLR is an inflammatory biomarker that demonstrates considerable prognostic value. Elevated pretreatment NLR is associated with poor OS and DFS in patients with CRLM who are submitted to different treatments.

Characterization of Genomic Alterations in Colorectal Liver Metastasis and Their Prognostic Value

Colorectal liver metastases (CRLMs) are clinically heterogeneous lesions with poor prognosis. Genetic alterations play a crucial role in their progression. The traditional Fong clinical risk score (Fong-CRS) is commonly used for risk stratification and prognosis prediction. By identifying the genomic alterations of CRLMs, we aimed to develop a mutation-based gene-signature-based clinical score (mut-CS) system to improve clinical prognostication. Tumour tissues from 144 patients with CRLMs were analysed with next-generation sequencing (NGS). A mut-CS scoring system considering the unique mutation-based gene signature, primary site, and Fong-CRS was developed and could identify CRLM patients with poor prognosis. The mean time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve AUC value of the mut-CS system was greater than that of previously established scoring measures (the Fong-CRS, the e-clinical score, the presence of concomitant RAS and TP53 mutations, and other clinical traits). Taking together, we identified a mutant signature that exhibits a strong prognostic effect for CRLMs. Traditional clinical scoring system characteristics were incorporated into the new mut-CS scoring system to help determine the appropriate treatment for CRLMs.

High Neutrophil-To-Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) and Systemic Immune-Inflammation Index (SII) Are Markers of Longer Survival After Metastasectomy of Patients With Liver-Only Metastasis of Rectal Cancer

Background: The literature data regarding colon cancer patients with liver-only metastases (CLM) show that NLR determined before metastasectomy is a prognostic marker of shorter relapse-free survival (RFS), but no results has been reported to date for rectal cancer patients with liver-only metastases (RLM). This study aimed to investigate the NLR and SII in CLM and RLM.

Methods: Relapse-free (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were evaluated in 67 CLM and 103 RLM patients with a median follow-up of 46.5 and 59.8 months, respectively. Pre- and/or postoperative chemotherapy ± targeted treatment was applied in 96% and 87% of CLM and RLM patients, respectively. The cut-off level for hematologic parameters were determined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Univariate analysis was performed by Kaplan-Meier method and log rank test. For multivariate analysis Cox regression was applied.

Results: In univariate analysis low NLR (cut-off 2) and SII (535) were predictors of longer RFS in case of CLM (p < 0.01). In contrast, for RLM high NLR (2.42) and SII (792) were predictors of longer RFS (p < 0.001). For RLM both NLR and SII proved to be independent markers of RFS (HR 0.66 (95% CI 0.52–0.84) and 0.73 (0.57–0.91), respectively) and OS (0.76 (0.58–0.99) and 0.66 (0.5–0.87), respectively). Only NLR (1.44 (1.04–1.99)) was independent marker of RFS for CLM. The preoperative treatment has not influenced the role of NLR or SII.

Conclusion: In contrast to CLM, in RLM the high NLR or SII determined before metastasectomy proved to be independent prognostic factors of longer RFS and OS.

Hepatic Steatosis Predicts Higher Incidence of Recurrence in Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastasis Patients

Purpose: Colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) is the major cause of death due to colorectal cancer. Although great efforts have been made in treatment of CRLM, about 60–70% of patients will develop hepatic recurrence. Hepatic steatosis was reported to provide fertile soil for metastasis. However, whether hepatic steatosis predicts higher incidence of CRLM recurrence is not clear. Therefore, we aimed to determine the role of hepatic steatosis in CRLM recurrence in the present study.

Methods: Consecutive CRLM patients undergoing curative treatment were retrospectively enrolled and CT liver-spleen attenuation ratio was used to detect the presence of hepatic steatosis. In patients with hepatic steatosis, we also detected the presence of fibrosis. Besides, a systematic literature search was performed to do meta-analysis to further analyze the association between hepatic steatosis and CRLM recurrence.

Results: A total of 195 eligible patients were included in our center. Patients with hepatic steatosis had a significantly worse overall (P = 0.0049) and hepatic recurrence-free survival (RFS) (P = 0.0012). Univariate and multivariate analysis confirmed its essential role in prediction of RFS. Besides, hepatic fibrosis is associated with worse overall RFS (P = 0.039) and hepatic RFS (P = 0.048). In meta-analysis, we included other four studies, with a total of 1,370 patients in the case group, and 3,735 patients in the control group. The odds ratio was 1.98 (95% CI: 1.25–3.14, P = 0.004), indicating that patients with steatosis had a significantly higher incidence of CRLM recurrence.

Conclusion: In summary, patients with hepatic steatosis had a significantly worse overall and hepatic RFS and it's associated with higher incidence of CRLM recurrence.

Development of a Metastasis-Related Immune Prognostic Model of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer and Its Usefulness to Immunotherapy

Background: Post-surgical recurrence of the metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) remains a challenge, even with adjuvant therapy. Moreover, patients show variable outcomes. Here, we set to identify gene models based on the perspectives of intrinsic cell activities and extrinsic immune microenvironment to predict the recurrence of mCRC and guide the adjuvant therapy.

Methods: An RNA-based gene expression analysis of CRC samples (total = 998, including mCRCs = 344, non-mCRCs = 654) was performed. A metastasis-evaluation model (MEM) for mCRCs was developed using the Cox survival model based on the prognostic differentially expressed genes between mCRCs and non-mCRCs. This model separated the mCRC samples into high- and low-recurrence risk clusters that were tested using machine learning to predict recurrence. Further, an immune prognostic model (IPM) was built using the COX survival model with the prognostic differentially expressed immune-related genes between the two MEM risk clusters. The ability of MEM and IPM to predict prognosis was analyzed and validated. Moreover, the IPM was utilized to evaluate its relationship with the immune microenvironment and response to immuno-/chemotherapy. Finally, the dysregulation cause of IPM three genes was analyzed in bioinformatics.

Results: A high post-operative recurrence risk was observed owing to the downregulation of the immune response, which was influenced by MEM genes (BAMBI, F13A1, LCN2) and their related IPM genes (SLIT2, CDKN2A, CLU). The MEM and IPM were developed and validated through mCRC samples to differentiate between low- and high-recurrence risk in a real-world cohort. The functional enrichment analysis suggested pathways related to immune response and immune system diseases as the major functional pathways related to the IPM genes. The IPM high-risk group (IPM-high) showed higher fractions of regulatory T cells (Tregs) and smaller fractions of resting memory CD4+ T cells than the IPM-low group. Moreover, the stroma and immune cells in the IPM-high samples were scant. Further, the IPM-high group showed downregulation of MHC class II molecules. Additionally, the Tumor Immune Dysfunction and Exclusion (TIDE) algorithm and GDSC analysis suggested the IPM-low as a promising responder to anti-CTLA-4 therapy and the common FDA-targeted drugs, while the IPM-high was non-responsive to these treatments. However, treatment using anti-CDKN2A agents, along with the activation of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class-II response might sensitize this refractory mCRC subgroup. The dysfunction of MEIS1 might be the reason for the dysregulation of IPM genes.

Conclusions: The IPM could identify subgroups of mCRC with a distinct risk of recurrence and stratify the patients sensitive to immuno-/chemotherapy. Further, for the first time, our study highlights the importance of MHC class-II molecules in the treatment of mCRCs using immunotherapy.

miR-210 is a Serological Biomarker for Predicting Recurrence and Prognosis of Colon Carcinoma Patients with Liver Metastases After Radiofrequency Ablation Treatment

Purpose

Hepatic metastasis of colon carcinoma seriously affects the prognosis of patients, and miRNA has attracted much attention in predicting hepatic metastasis of colon carcinoma (CC). This research aimed to explore the predictive role of miR-210 in serum for recurrence and prognosis of CC patients with hepatic metastasis.

Methods

Altogether, 150 patients with liver metastases of CC (research group, RG) and 130 patients with non-metastatic of CC (control group, CG) admitted to People’s Hospital of Deyang City from March 2012 to March 2015 were obtained and their serum was collected. miR-210 in the RG and the CG, and miR-210 in the RG after radiofrequency ablation treatment were detected, the relationship between miR-210 and pathological parameters of CC patients with hepatic metastasis was analyzed, and patients in the RG were followed up for 5 years to analyze the recurrence, overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). The area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was applied to test the predictive value of miR-210. Cox regression was applied to analyze the independent prognostic factors of patients.

Results

miR-210 in the RG was evidently higher than that in the CG, and AUC for distinguishing hepatic metastasis of CC was 0.907. miR-210 had a close correlation with lymph node metastasis, distant metastasis and pathological differentiation. After treatment, miR-210 in the RG was evidently reduced, and the serum was higher in patients with recurrence and with poor prognosis. AUC for predicting recurrence was 0.858, and AUC for predicting poor prognosis was 0.843. High miR-210 was closely related to lower 5-year OS and DFS and is also an independent prognostic factor affecting patients’ 5-year OS.

Conclusion

miR-210 is enhanced in hepatic metastasis of CC, which is a serological biomarker for predicting recurrence and prognosis of patients with hepatic metastasis of CC after radiofrequency ablation, and has great clinical application value.