A multimodal approach for regional GDP prediction using social media activity and historical information

Assessment of regional economic restorability under the stress of COVID-19 using the new interval type-2 fuzzy ORESTE method

The economic implications from the COVID-19 crisis are not like anything people have ever experienced. As predictions indicated, it is not until the year 2025 may the global economy recover to the ideal situation as it was in 2020. Regions lacked of developing category is among the mostly affected regions, because the category includes weakly and averagely potential power. For supporting the decision of economic system recovery scientifically and accurately under the stress of COVID-19, one feasible solution is to assess the regional economic restorability by taking into account a variety of indicators, such as development foundation, industrial structure, labor forces, financial support and government's ability. This is a typical multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem with quantitative and qualitative criteria/indicator. To solve this problem, in this paper, an investigation is conducted to obtain 14 indicators affecting regional economic restorability, which form an indicator system. The interval type-2 fuzzy set (IT2FS) is an effective tool to express experts' subjective preference values (PVs) in the process of decision-making. First, some formulas are developed to convert quantitative PVs to IT2FSs. Second, an improved interval type-2 fuzzy ORESTE (IT2F-ORESTE) method based on distance and likelihood are developed to assess the regional economic restorability. Third, a case study is given to illustrate the method. Then, robust ranking results are acquired by performing a sensitivity analysis. Finally, some comparative analyses with other methods are conducted to demonstrate that the developed IT2F-ORESTE method can supporting the decision of economic system recovery scientifically and accurately.

Nowcasting unemployment rate during the COVID-19 pandemic using Twitter data: The case of South Africa

The global economy has been hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Many countries are experiencing a severe and destructive recession. A significant number of firms and businesses have gone bankrupt or been scaled down, and many individuals have lost their jobs. The main goal of this study is to support policy- and decision-makers with additional and real-time information about the labor market flow using Twitter data. We leverage the data to trace and nowcast the unemployment rate of South Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic. First, we create a dataset of unemployment-related tweets using certain keywords. Principal Component Regression (PCR) is then applied to nowcast the unemployment rate using the gathered tweets and their sentiment scores. Numerical results indicate that the volume of the tweets has a positive correlation, and the sentiments of the tweets have a negative correlation with the unemployment rate during and before the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the now-casted unemployment rate using PCR has an outstanding evaluation result with a low Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Symmetric MAPE (SMAPE) of 0.921, 0.018, 0.018, respectively and a high R²-score of 0.929.

A Novel Multi-Factor Three-Step Feature Selection and Deep Learning Framework for Regional GDP Prediction: Evidence from China

Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important index reflecting the economic development of a region. Accurate GDP prediction of developing regions can provide technical support for sustainable urban development and economic policy formulation. In this paper, a novel multi-factor three-step feature selection and deep learning framework are proposed for regional GDP prediction. The core modeling process is mainly composed of the following three steps: In Step I, the feature crossing algorithm is used to deeply excavate hidden feature information of original datasets and fully extract key information. In Step II, BorutaRF and Q-learning algorithms analyze the deep correlation between extracted features and targets from two different perspectives and determine the features with the highest quality. In Step III, selected features are used as the input of TCN (Temporal convolutional network) to build a GDP prediction model and obtain final prediction results. Based on the experimental analysis of three datasets, the following conclusions can be drawn: (1) The proposed three-stage feature selection method effectively improves the prediction accuracy of TCN by more than 10%. (2) The proposed GDP prediction framework proposed in the paper has achieved better forecasting performance than 14 benchmark models. In addition, the MAPE values of the models are lower than 5% in all cases.