Interplanetary crew doses and dose equivalents: variations among different bone marrow and skin sites

Predicting chromosome damage in astronauts participating in international space station missions

Space radiation consists of energetic protons and other heavier ions. During the International Space Station program, chromosome aberrations in lymphocytes of astronauts have been analyzed to estimate received biological doses of space radiation. More specifically, pre-flight blood samples were exposed ex vivo to varying doses of gamma rays, while post-flight blood samples were collected shortly and several months after landing. Here, in a study of 43 crew-missions, we investigated whether individual radiosensitivity, as determined by the ex vivo dose-response of the pre-flight chromosome aberration rate (CAR), contributes to the prediction of the post-flight CAR incurred from the radiation exposure during missions. Random-effects Poisson regression was used to estimate subject-specific radiosensitivities from the preflight dose-response data, which were in turn used to predict post-flight CAR and subject-specific relative biological effectiveness (RBEs) between space radiation and gamma radiation. Covariates age, gender were also considered. Results indicate that there is predictive value in background CAR as well as radiosensitivity determined preflight for explaining individual differences in post-flight CAR over and above that which could be explained by BFO dose alone. The in vivo RBE for space radiation was estimated to be approximately 3 relative to the ex vivo dose response to gamma irradiation. In addition, pre-flight radiosensitivity tended to be higher for individuals having a higher background CAR, suggesting that individuals with greater radiosensitivity can be more sensitive to other environmental stressors encountered in daily life. We also noted that both background CAR and radiosensitivity tend to increase with age, although both are highly variable. Finally, we observed no significant difference between the observed CAR shortly after mission and at > 6 months post-mission.

Predicting >10 MeV SEP Events from Solar Flare and Radio Burst Data

The prediction of solar energetic particle (SEP) events or solar radiation storms is one of the most important problems in the space weather field. These events may have adverse effects on technology infrastructures and humans in space; they may also irradiate passengers and flight crews in commercial aircraft flying at polar latitudes. This paper explores the use of ≥ M2 solar flares and radio burst observations as proxies for predicting >10 MeV SEP events on Earth. These observations are manifestations of the parent event at the sun associated with the SEP event. As a consequence of processing data at the beginning of the physical process that leads to the radiation storm, the model may provide its predictions with large anticipation. The main advantage of the present approach is that the model analyzes solar data that are updated every 30 min and, as such, it may be operational; however, a disadvantage is that those SEP events associated with strong well-connected flares cannot be predicted. For the period from November 1997 to February 2014, we obtained a probability of detection of 70.2%, a false alarm ratio of 40.2%, and an average anticipation time of 9 h 52 min. In this study, the prediction model was built using decision trees, an interpretable machine learning technique. This approach leads to outputs and results comparable to those derived by the Empirical model for Solar Proton Event Real Time Alert (ESPERTA) model. The obtained decision tree shows that the best criteria to differentiate pre-SEP scenarios and non-pre-SEP scenarios are the peak and integrated flux for soft X-ray flares and the radio type III bursts.

Solar Energetic Particle Forecasting Algorithms and Associated False Alarms

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are known to occur following solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). However, some high-energy solar events do not result in SEPs being detected at Earth, and it is these types of event which may be termed "false alarms". We define two simple SEP forecasting algorithms based upon the occurrence of a magnetically well-connected CME with a speed in excess of 1500 km s - 1 (a "fast" CME) or a well-connected X-class flare and analyse them with respect to historical datasets. We compare the parameters of those solar events which produced an enhancement of > 40 MeV protons at Earth (an "SEP event") and the parameters of false alarms. We find that an SEP forecasting algorithm based solely upon the occurrence of a well-connected fast CME produces fewer false alarms (28.8%) than an algorithm which is based solely upon a well-connected X-class flare (50.6%). Both algorithms fail to forecast a relatively high percentage of SEP events (53.2% and 50.6%, respectively). Our analysis of the historical datasets shows that false-alarm X-class flares were either not associated with any CME, or were associated with a CME slower than 500 km s - 1 ; false-alarm fast CMEs tended to be associated with flare classes lower than M3. A better approach to forecasting would be an algorithm which takes as its base the occurrence of both CMEs and flares. We define a new forecasting algorithm which uses a combination of CME and flare parameters, and we show that the false-alarm ratio is similar to that for the algorithm based upon fast CMEs (29.6%), but the percentage of SEP events not forecast is reduced to 32.4%. Lists of the solar events which gave rise to > 40 MeV protons and the false alarms have been derived and are made available to aid further study.

ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11207-017-1196-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Simulated Response of a Tissue-equivalent Proportional Counter on the Surface of Mars

Uncertainties persist regarding the assessment of the carcinogenic risk associated with galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposure during a mission to Mars. The GCR spectrum peaks in the range of 300(-1) MeV n to 700 MeV n(-1) and is comprised of elemental ions from H to Ni. While Fe ions represent only 0.03% of the GCR spectrum in terms of particle abundance, they are responsible for nearly 30% of the dose equivalent in free space. Because of this, radiation biology studies focusing on understanding the biological effects of GCR exposure generally use Fe ions. Acting as a thin shield, the Martian atmosphere alters the GCR spectrum in a manner that significantly reduces the importance of Fe ions. Additionally, albedo particles emanating from the regolith complicate the radiation environment. The present study uses the Monte Carlo code FLUKA to simulate the response of a tissue-equivalent proportional counter on the surface of Mars to produce dosimetry quantities and microdosimetry distributions. The dose equivalent rate on the surface of Mars was found to be 0.18 Sv y(-1) with an average quality factor of 2.9 and a dose mean lineal energy of 18.4 keV μm(-1). Additionally, albedo neutrons were found to account for 25% of the dose equivalent. It is anticipated that these data will provide relevant starting points for use in future risk assessment and mission planning studies.

Shielding evaluation for solar particle events using MCNPX, PHITS and OLTARIS codes

Detailed analyses of Solar Particle Events (SPE) were performed to calculate primary and secondary particle spectra behind aluminum, at various thicknesses in water. The simulations were based on Monte Carlo (MC) radiation transport codes, MCNPX 2.7.0 and PHITS 2.64, and the space radiation analysis website called OLTARIS (On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation in Space) version 3.4 (uses deterministic code, HZETRN, for transport). The study is set to investigate the impact of SPEs spectra transporting through 10 or 20 g/cm(2) Al shield followed by 30 g/cm(2) of water slab. Four historical SPE events were selected and used as input source spectra particle differential spectra for protons, neutrons, and photons are presented. The total particle fluence as a function of depth is presented. In addition to particle flux, the dose and dose equivalent values are calculated and compared between the codes and with the other published results. Overall, the particle fluence spectra from all three codes show good agreement with the MC codes showing closer agreement compared to the OLTARIS results. The neutron particle fluence from OLTARIS is lower than the results from MC codes at lower energies (E<100 MeV). Based on mean square difference analysis the results from MCNPX and PHITS agree better for fluence, dose and dose equivalent when compared to OLTARIS results.

ICRP, 123. Assessment of radiation exposure of astronauts in space. ICRP Publication 123

During their occupational activities in space, astronauts are exposed to ionising radiation from natural radiation sources present in this environment. They are, however, not usually classified as being occupationally exposed in the sense of the general ICRP system for radiation protection of workers applied on Earth. The exposure assessment and risk-related approach described in this report is clearly restricted to the special situation in space, and should not be applied to any other exposure situation on Earth. The report describes the terms and methods used to assess the radiation exposure of astronauts, and provides data for the assessment of organ doses. Chapter 1 describes the specific situation of astronauts in space, and the differences in the radiation fields compared with those on Earth. In Chapter 2, the radiation fields in space are described in detail, including galactic cosmic radiation, radiation from the Sun and its special solar particle events, and the radiation belts surrounding the Earth. Chapter 3 deals with the quantities used in radiological protection, describing the Publication 103 (ICRP, 2007) system of dose quantities, and subsequently presenting the special approach for applications in space; due to the strong contribution of heavy ions in the radiation field, radiation weighting is based on the radiation quality factor, Q, instead of the radiation weighting factor, wR. In Chapter 4, the methods of fluence and dose measurement in space are described, including instrumentation for fluence measurements, radiation spectrometry, and area and individual monitoring. The use of biomarkers for the assessment of mission doses is also described. The methods of determining quantities describing the radiation fields within a spacecraft are given in Chapter 5. Radiation transport calculations are the most important tool. Some physical data used in radiation transport codes are presented, and the various codes used for calculations in high-energy radiation fields in space are described. Results of calculations and measurements of radiation fields in spacecraft are given. Some data for shielding possibilities are also presented. Chapter 6 addresses methods of determining mean absorbed doses and dose equivalents in organs and tissues of the human body. Calculated conversion coefficients of fluence to mean absorbed dose in an organ or tissue are given for heavy ions up to Z=28 for energies from 10 MeV/u to 100 GeV/u. For the same set of ions and ion energies, mean quality factors in organs and tissues are presented using, on the one hand, the Q(L) function defined in Publication 60 (ICRP, 1991), and, on the other hand, a Q function proposed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Doses in the body obtained by measurements are compared with results from calculations, and biodosimetric measurements for the assessment of mission doses are also presented. In Chapter 7, operational measures are considered for assessment of the exposure of astronauts during space missions. This includes preflight mission design, area and individual monitoring during flights in space, and dose recording. The importance of the magnitude of uncertainties in dose assessment is considered. Annex A shows conversion coefficients and mean quality factors for protons, charged pions, neutrons, alpha particles, and heavy ions(2 < Z ≤2 8), and particle energies up to 100 GeV/u.

Dose estimation for astronauts using dose conversion coefficients calculated with the PHITS code and the ICRP/ICRU adult reference computational phantoms

Absorbed-dose and dose-equivalent rates for astronauts were estimated by multiplying fluence-to-dose conversion coefficients in the units of Gy.cm(2) and Sv.cm(2), respectively, and cosmic-ray fluxes around spacecrafts in the unit of cm(-2) s(-1). The dose conversion coefficients employed in the calculation were evaluated using the general-purpose particle and heavy ion transport code system PHITS coupled to the male and female adult reference computational phantoms, which were released as a common ICRP/ICRU publication. The cosmic-ray fluxes inside and near to spacecrafts were also calculated by PHITS, using simplified geometries. The accuracy of the obtained absorbed-dose and dose-equivalent rates was verified by various experimental data measured both inside and outside spacecrafts. The calculations quantitatively show that the effective doses for astronauts are significantly greater than their corresponding effective dose equivalents, because of the numerical incompatibility between the radiation quality factors and the radiation weighting factors. These results demonstrate the usefulness of dose conversion coefficients in space dosimetry.

The effect of anatomical modeling on space radiation dose estimates: a comparison of doses for NASA phantoms and the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile male and female astronauts

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) performs organ dosimetry and risk assessment for astronauts using model-normalized measurements of the radiation fields encountered in space. To determine the radiation fields in an organ or tissue of interest, particle transport calculations are performed using self-shielding distributions generated with the computer program CAMERA to represent the human body. CAMERA mathematically traces linear rays (or path lengths) through the computerized anatomical man (CAM) phantom, a computational stylized model developed in the early 1970s with organ and body profiles modeled using solid shapes and scaled to represent the body morphometry of the 1950 50th percentile (PCTL) Air Force male. With the increasing use of voxel phantoms in medical and health physics, a conversion from a mathematical-based to a voxel-based ray-tracing algorithm is warranted. In this study, the voxel-based ray tracer (VoBRaT) is introduced to ray trace voxel phantoms using a modified version of the algorithm first proposed by Siddon (1985 Med. Phys. 12 252-5). After validation, VoBRAT is used to evaluate variations in body self-shielding distributions for NASA phantoms and six University of Florida (UF) hybrid phantoms, scaled to represent the 5th, 50th, and 95th PCTL male and female astronaut body morphometries, which have changed considerably since the inception of CAM. These body self-shielding distributions are used to generate organ dose equivalents and effective doses for five commonly evaluated space radiation environments. It is found that dosimetric differences among the phantoms are greatest for soft radiation spectra and light vehicular shielding.

Implications of the space radiation environment for human exploration in deep space

Human exploration of the solar system beyond Earth's orbit will entail many risks for the crew on these deep space missions. One of the most significant health risks is exposure to the harsh space radiation environment beyond the protection provided by the Earth's intrinsic magnetic field. Crew on exploration missions will be exposed to a complex mixture of very energetic particles. Chronic exposures to the ever-present background galactic cosmic ray (GCR) spectrum consisting of all naturally occurring chemical elements are combined with sporadic, possibly acute exposures to large fluxes of solar energetic particles, mainly protons and alpha particles. The background GCR environment is mainly a matter of concern for stochastic effects, such as the induction of cancer with subsequent mortality in many cases, and late deterministic effects, such as cataracts and possible damage to the central nervous system. Unfortunately, the actual risks of cancer induction and mortality owing to the very important high-energy heavy ion component of the GCR spectrum are essentially unknown. The sporadic occurrence of extremely large solar energetic particle events (SPE), usually associated with intense solar activity, is also a major concern for the possible manifestation of acute effects from the accompanying high doses of such radiations, especially acute radiation syndrome effects such as nausea, emesis, haemorrhaging or, possibly, even death. In this presentation, an overview of the space radiation environment, estimates of the associated body organ doses and equivalent doses and the potential biological effects on crew in deep space are presented. Possible methods of mitigating these radiations, thereby reducing the associated risks to crew are also described.