Protected area connectivity: Shortfalls in global targets and country-level priorities

Establishing a protected area network in Xinlong with other effective area-based conservation measures

Protected areas (PAs) are pivotal to biodiversity conservation, yet their efficacy is compromised by insufficient funding and management. So-called other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs) present a paradigm shift and address PA limitations. Such measures can expand conservation areas, enhance connectivity, and improve the existing system. To assess the conservation status of biodiversity in Tibetan cultural areas in China, we investigated the spatial distribution of wildlife vulnerable to human disturbance (large- and medium-sized mammals and terrestrial birds) in Xinlong, a traditional Tibetan cultural area. In particular, we compared a PA (Xionglongxi Nature Reserve) and OECMs targeting species conservation. We also investigated the relationship of wildlife with human temporal and spatial activities. The OECMs complemented areas not covered by PA, especially in rich understory biodiversity regions. More species in OECMs tolerated human presence than species in the PA. Existing biodiversity reserves failed to cover areas of high conservation value in Tibet and offered limited protection capacity. Expanding PAs and identifying OECMs improved Xinlong's system by covering most biodiversity hotspots. Building on the tradition of wildlife conservation in Tibet, harnessing OECMs may be an effective means of augmenting biodiversity conservation capacity. We recommend further evaluation of OECMs effectiveness and coverage in Tibetan area as a way to enhance the current PA system.

Proximity among protected area networks promotes functional connectivity for wintering waterfowl

The equilibrium theorem provided a fundamental framework for understanding species' distributions and movement in fragmented ecosystems. Wetland-dependent avian species are model organisms to test insular predictions within protected area networks because their mobility allows surveillance of isolated patches without landscape barriers. We hypothesized size and isolation would influence functional connectivity of sanctuaries by GPS-marked wintering mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) within a mesocosm protected sanctuary area network. We evaluated functional connectivity and sanctuary use, measured by movements between sanctuaries, using a multistate modeling framework. Proximity drove connectivity, underscoring that patch isolation-not size-influenced connectivity, even for an avian species with no ascertainable landscape resistance or barriers. We also found that sanctuary use increased overwintering survival by reducing harvest mortality. Our test of equilibrium theory predictions demonstrated that isolation of protected sanctuary areas supersedes their size in determining functional connectivity for mallards and access to these areas may have direct fitness consequences. Our findings could refine land acquisition, restoration, and management practices with equal or greater emphasis on adjacency in protected area network design, especially for wetland-dependent migratory gamebirds.

Effects of protected area coverage and research on conservation status of primates globally

Conducting conservation research and establishing protected areas (PAs) based on research results are critical to biodiversity conservation. However, the effect of research and PAs on conservation of threatened species has rarely been evaluated simultaneously. We collected data on PAs from 2000 for 2021 and determined the number of publications on global primates (published from 1950 to 2021) to assess the effect of PAs, research, and biological and socioeconomic factors on the current International Union for Conservation of Nature endangered status and change in status. We used the MCMCglmm package to conduct a phylogenetic comparative analysis to control the phylogenetic relationship of primate species. The status of 24.6% (82 of 333) of species assessed at least twice declined. Only the black lion tamarin (Leontopithecus chrysopygus) had an improved status. Species with status declines mostly occurred on the south coast of West Africa and in Madagascar. PAs covered 22.1% of each species' range. Forest loss in PAs (5.5%) was significantly lower than forest loss within 5 km outside PAs (13.8%), suggesting PAs effectively mitigated forest loss. Both the median number of total publications and conservation publications on critically endangered species were higher than those of other categories. Models showed that PA coverage and number of publications or conservation-focused publications were not related to current status or change in status over time. A decline in status was not related to creation of PAs or increase of research since the last assessment. Our results suggest that current PAs and research are not reversing the extinction crisis of global primates. Doing more conservation-oriented research, strengthening management of current PAs, and expanding PAs will be needed to protect primates globally.

Can large-scale tree planting in China compensate for the loss of climate connectivity due to deforestation?

Extensive deforestation has been a major reason for the loss of forest connectivity, impeding species range shifts under current climate change. Over the past decades, the Chinese government launched a series of afforestation and reforestation projects to increase forest cover, yet whether the new forests can compensate for the loss of connectivity due to deforestation-and where future tree planting would be most effective-remains largely unknown. Here, we evaluate changes in climate connectivity across China's forests between 2015 and 2019. We find that China's large-scale tree planting alleviated the negative impacts of forest loss on climate connectivity, improving the extent and probability of climate connectivity by 0-0.2 °C and 0-0.03, respectively. The improvements were particularly obvious for species with short dispersal distances (i.e., 3 km and 10 km). Nevertheless, only ~55 % of the trees planted in this period could serve as stepping stones for species movement. This indicates that focusing solely on the quantitative target of forest coverage without considering the connectivity of forests may miss opportunities in tree planting to facilitate climate-induced range shifts. More attention should be paid to the spatial arrangement of tree plantations and their potential as stepping stones. We then identify priority areas for future tree planting to create effective stepping stones. Our study highlights the potential of large-scale tree planting to facilitate range shifts. Future tree-planting efforts should incorporate the need for species range shifts to achieve more biodiversity conservation benefits under climate change.

Mapping climate adaptation corridors for biodiversity-A regional-scale case study in Central America

Climate adaptation corridors are widely recognized as important for promoting biodiversity resilience under climate change. Central America is part of the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot, but there have been no regional-scale analyses of potential climate adaptation corridors in Central America. We identified 2375 potential corridors throughout Central America that link lowland protected areas (≤ 500 m) with intact, high-elevation forests (≥ 1500 m) that represent potential climate change refugia. Whereas we found potential corridors in all Central American countries, potential corridors in Panama, Belize, and Honduras were most protected (medians = 64%, 49%, and 47%, respectively) and potential corridors in El Salvador were least protected (median = 10%). We also developed a corridor priority index based on the ecological characteristics and protected status of potential corridors and their associated start and end points. Compared to low- and medium-priority corridors, high-priority corridors (n = 160; top 7% of all corridors) were generally more protected, forested, and distributed across wider elevational gradients and more Key Biodiversity Areas, but also generally linked larger lowland protected areas to target areas that were larger, more protected, and spanned wider elevational gradients. For example, based on median values, high-priority corridors were 9% more protected and overlapped with 2-3 more Key Biodiversity Areas than low- and medium-priority corridors. Although high-elevation targets spanned considerably wider elevational gradients than lowland protected areas (medians = 695 vs. 142 m, respectively) and thus may be more likely to support refugia, they were considerably smaller than lowland protected areas (medians = 11 vs. 50 km2 respectively) and mostly unprotected (median = 4% protection). This initial, regional assessment can help prioritize locations for finer-scale research, conservation, and restoration activities in support of climate adaptation corridors throughout Central America and highlights the need for greater conservation of potential high-elevation refugia.

Impacts of existing and planned roads on terrestrial mammal habitat in New Guinea

New Guinea is one of the last regions in the world with vast pristine areas and is home to many endemic species. However, extensive road development plans threaten the island's biodiversity. We quantified habitat fragmentation due to existing and planned roads for 139 terrestrial mammal species in New Guinea. For each species, we calculated the equivalent connected area (ECA) of habitat, a metric that takes into account the area and connectivity of habitat patches in 3 situations: no roads (baseline situation), existing roads (current), and existing and planned roads combined (future). We assessed the effect of roads as the proportion of the ECA remaining in the current and future situations relative to the baseline. To examine whether there were patterns in these relative ECA values, we fitted beta-regression models relating these values to 4 species characteristics: taxonomic order, body mass, diet, and International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List status. On average across species, current ECA was 89% (SD 12) of baseline ECA. Shawmayer's coccymys (Coccymys shawmayeri) had the lowest amount of current ECA relative to the baseline (53%). In the future situation, the average remaining ECA was 71% (SD 20) of baseline ECA. Future remaining ECA was below 50% of the baseline for 28 species. The montane soft-furred paramelomys (Paramelomys mollis) had the lowest future ECA relative to the baseline (36%). In general, currently nonthreatened carnivorous species with a large body mass had the greatest reductions of ECA in the future situation. In conclusion, future road development plans imply extensive additional habitat fragmentation for a large number of terrestrial mammal species in New Guinea. It is therefore important to limit the impact of planned roads, for example, by reconsidering the location of planned roads that intersect habitat of the most threatened species, or by the implementation of mitigation measures such as underpasses.

Costs and benefits of protecting linear landscape elements: Applying systematic conservation planning on a case study in the Netherlands

Protecting and increasing linear landscape elements (LLEs) in agricultural lands is regarded as a possible solution for a transition to a more biodiverse agricultural system. However, optimizing the spatial configuration of LLEs protected areas is challenging, especially given the demand for land for food production. Systematic Conservation Planning (SCP) can address this challenge, by prioritizing cost-efficient protection areas. We used a SCP approach to look at the LLEs network in the Province of Noord-Brabant in the Netherlands, identifying the possible trade-off between optimizing species conservation, costs and the monetary values of ecosystem services (ES). For this we defined two scenarios. One scenario focuses on achieving species conservation targets at the minimum cost, and the other focuses on achieving targets while maximizing the benefits provided by ES. For each scenario, we further developed two land-management options, namely land-sharing and land-sparing. For each solution, we tested their cost-effectiveness by calculating implementation costs, economic benefits provided by ES, and cost/benefit ratios. First, our scenario analysis indicates that the economic benefits provided by ES always outweigh the implementation costs. Second, it shows that including ES as co-benefits in SCP (Maximize ES Scenario) yields more cost-efficient conservation solutions. Third, both land-sharing and land-sparing are possible cost-efficient approaches to achieve conservation targets. Our results are spatially explicit and identify crucial habitat areas for the conservation of the selected species, which represent 12-20% of the current unprotected network of LLEs. Our findings showcase net economic benefit of conserving species and LLEs, thus representing an additional reason for biodiversity conservation.

Making protected areas effective for biodiversity, climate and food

The spatial extent of marine and terrestrial protected areas (PAs) was among the most intensely debated issues prior to the decision about the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Positive impacts of PAs on habitats, species diversity and abundance are well documented. Yet, biodiversity loss continues unabated despite efforts to protect 17% of land and 10% of the oceans by 2020. This casts doubt on whether extending PAs to 30%, the agreed target in the Kunming-Montreal GBF, will indeed achieve meaningful biodiversity benefits. Critically, the focus on area coverage obscures the importance of PA effectiveness and overlooks concerns about the impact of PAs on other sustainability objectives. We propose a simple means of assessing and visualising the complex relationships between PA area coverage and effectiveness and their effects on biodiversity conservation, nature-based climate mitigation and food production. Our analysis illustrates how achieving a 30% PA global target could be beneficial for biodiversity and climate. It also highlights important caveats: (i) achieving lofty area coverage objectives alone will be of little benefit without concomitant improvements in effectiveness, (ii) trade-offs with food production particularly for high levels of coverage and effectiveness are likely and (iii) important differences in terrestrial and marine systems need to be recognized when setting and implementing PA targets. The CBD's call for a significant increase in PA will need to be accompanied by clear PA effectiveness goals to reduce and revert dangerous anthropogenic impacts on socio-ecological systems and biodiversity.

Exploring the effects of protected area networks on the European land system

The European Union's Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 seeks to protect 30% of land, with 10% under strict protection, while building a transnational nature network. We explore the effects of the Biodiversity Strategy targets for land use and ecosystem services across the European land system. To do so, we propose a novel approach, combining a methodological framework for improving green network connectivity with an EU-wide land system model. We identify an improved network of EU protected areas consistent with the 2030 targets, and explore its effects under different levels of protection and in a range of paired climatic and socio-economic scenarios. The existing network of protected areas is highly fragmented, with more than one third of its nodes being isolated. We find that prioritizing connectivity when implementing new protected areas could achieve the strategy's targets without compromising the future provision of ecosystem services, including food production, in Europe. However, we also find that EU-wide distributions of land uses and ecosystem services are influenced by the protected area network, and that this influence manifests differently in different climatic and socio-economic scenarios. Varying the strength of protection of the network had limited effects. Extractive services (food and timber production) decreased in protected areas, but non-extractive services increased, with compensatory changes occurring outside the network. Changes were small where competition for land was low and scenario conditions were benign, but became far larger and more extensive where competition was high and scenario conditions were challenging. Our findings highlight the apparent achievability of the EU's protected area targets, but also the need to account for adaptation in the wider land system and its consequences for spatial and temporal patterns of ecosystem services provision now and in the future.

Protected areas not likely to serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts

Species across the planet are shifting their ranges to track suitable climate conditions in response to climate change. Given that protected areas have higher quality habitat and often harbor higher levels of biodiversity compared to unprotected lands, it is often assumed that protected areas can serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts. However, there are several factors that may impede successful range shifts among protected areas, including the distance that must be traveled, unfavorable human land uses and climate conditions along potential movement routes, and lack of analogous climates. Through a species-agnostic lens, we evaluate these factors across the global terrestrial protected area network as measures of climate connectivity, which is defined as the ability of a landscape to facilitate or impede climate-induced movement. We found that over half of protected land area and two-thirds of the number of protected units across the globe are at risk of climate connectivity failure, casting doubt on whether many species can successfully undergo climate-induced range shifts among protected areas. Consequently, protected areas are unlikely to serve as steppingstones for a large number of species under a warming climate. As species disappear from protected areas without commensurate immigration of species suited to the emerging climate (due to climate connectivity failure), many protected areas may be left with a depauperate suite of species under climate change. Our findings are highly relevant given recent pledges to conserve 30% of the planet by 2030 (30 × 30), underscore the need for innovative land management strategies that allow for species range shifts, and suggest that assisted colonization may be necessary to promote species that are adapted to the emerging climate.

New indicator of habitat functionality reveals high risk of underestimating trade-offs among sustainable development goals: The case of wild reindeer and hydropower

Although biodiversity is crucial for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), following the current trajectory, we risk failing SDG 15. Using a new indicator quantifying the loss of functional habitat (habitat that is simultaneously suitable and well-connected), we show that the real impact of renewable energy is far larger than previously assumed. Specifically, we estimate that the construction of hydropower reservoirs in south Norway caused a loss of ca. 222 km² of functional habitat for wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus)-which is far larger than assumed based on land inundation indices (110 km²). Fully mitigating these impacts is challenging: scenario analyses reveal that the measures proposed by societal actors would yield only a fraction of the habitat lost (2-12 km²) and could cause trade-off risks with other SDGs. Using indices of functional connectivity is crucial for environmental impact assessments, as entire ecological networks for several species can be affected far beyond the reservoirs.

Surprising leopard restoration in fragmented ecosystems reveals connections as the secret to conservation success

The Chinese Loess Plateau has been the cradle of Chinese civilization and the main human settlement in China for thousands of years, where anthropogenic activities are believed to have deeply eroded natural landscapes. After decades of minimal leopard sighting in forests of northern China, due to serious human interference, we recently discovered that the leopard population is recovering. This finding provides hope for successful biodiversity conservation in human-dominated ecosystems. To understand the mechanism of leopard return into such a highly fragmented landscape, we applied the concept of ecological networks (ENs) to identify key factors promoting leopard restoration and quantify the ecological links among habitats. We first determined the existence of a healthy leopard population in the study area based on the size of its home range and presence of breeding individuals. We then innovatively used the relationship between species richness and top predators to generate ENs, and found that the connectivity of ENs had a significant positive interaction with leopard survival. Our study validates the effectiveness of establishing ecologically connected habitats for leopard protection, and highlights the importance of applying ENs for conservation planning in highly fragmented ecosystems. This study provides a successful case for the protection of top predators in human-dominated landscapes.

Relative contributions of natural and anthropogenic factors to the distribution patterns of nature reserves in mainland China

Nature reserves (NRs) are designated as a result of the ecosystem, species, economy, population, and land use coordination. However, the extent to which these factors influence the geographical pattern of NRs is unclear. Here, 11 indices (seven natural and four anthropogenic) were examined to identify these relationships in over 2600 terrestrial NRs in mainland China at the provincial level. Correlation analysis between natural and anthropogenic factors and NRs showed that desert and grassland had a positive correlation with NR coverage and area, and a negative correlation with NR density. This result was reversed in the correlation analysis between forest wetland coverage, endangered species, wildlife and NR coverage, area, and density. Similar results were found in the correlation analysis of all anthropogenic factors (population density, agricultural land, roads, and per capita GDP) with the coverage, area, and density of NRs. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) showed that three significant natural indicators (desert ecosystems, grasslands ecosystems, and forested and wetlands ecosystems) could explain 64.2 % of the pattern of NRs. The largest contributor was desert coverage, explaining 48.3 % (P = 0.002) of all indicators, followed by grassland coverage, explaining 8.6 % (P = 0.012), and forest and wetland coverage, explaining 7.3 % (P = 0.008). Human activities were significantly positively correlated with forest and wetland coverage, flora, and fauna, and negatively correlated with desert and grassland coverage. Compared with sand and grassland in the western region, the forest wetlands and wildlife in the eastern and central provinces were under greater pressure from anthropogenic activities. Therefore, natural factors determine the general layout of NRs, while the influence of anthropogenic activities makes the distribution of NRs patchy. When establishing national parks, governments must design strategies to coordinate areas with high biodiversity and high levels of human activity.

Spatial Patterns of Natural Protected Areas and Construction of Protected Area Groups in Guangdong Province

The fragmentation of protected areas is a common issue in global conservation, which means a new approach to planning and management needs to be explored. In this paper, we proposed the concept of a group of natural protected areas (GNPA) and studied the construction of GNPAs. Firstly, the spatial distribution characteristics of 1363 natural protected areas (NPAs) in Guangdong Province were qualitatively studied. The overall spatial pattern among NPAs and the spatial distribution characteristics of mountain ranges, river basins, urbanization level and economic density were analyzed, and the relationship between the distribution of NPAs and physical geography and social development was clarified. Then, the geographical concentration index, nearest index and Gini coefficient were used for quantitative analysis. The geographical concentration index was 24.6, and the nearest neighbor index was 0.8. The Gini coefficients of the spatial distribution of NPAs in Guangdong Province were Gini = 0.956 and C = 0.044. These indices proved that the overall spatial patterns of NPAs in Guangdong Province had the tendency and characteristics of agglomeration. On this basis, 29 agglomeration areas were constructed using kernel density analysis and the natural break point classification method. According to the requirements of spatial connectivity and management feasibility, combined with the characteristics of physical geography, ecosystems and biodiversity, 32 GNPAs were constructed based on the reasonable adjustment of 29 agglomeration areas. Using Geodetector statistics to analyze the spatial stratified heterogeneity of the GNPAs, the results showed that mountain range, water system, population density, economic density and urbanization level were all factors that could explain the clustering distribution of the natural protected areas. The most important factor was mountain range (p = 0.190), followed by population density (p = 0.162). The 32 GNPAs covered the most representative natural ecosystems in the province and had compact spatial organization, a close ecological relationship and feasible unified management, which means they could aid in resolving the fragmentation of protected areas and improving management efficiency.

Biogeography and conservation of desert warthog Phacochoerus aethiopicus and common warthog Phacochoerus africanus (Artiodactyla: Suidae) in the Horn of Africa

Two species of warthog are currently widely recognised, the poorly known desert warthog Phacochoerus aethiopicus and the widely distributed common warthog Phacochoerus africanus. Spatial data for both species were collected during field surveys and from the literature, museums, colleagues, naturalists, local experts, and online resources to assess their biogeography in the Horn of Africa (HoA). Their distributions were overlaid with ArcGIS datasets for altitude, rainfall, temperature, and ecoregions. Phacochoerus aethiopicus appears to be restricted to Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, with no records west of the Eastern Rift Valley (ERV). The estimated current geographic distribution of P. aethiopicus is 1,109,000 km2. Phacochoerus africanus occurs in all five countries of the HoA and has an estimated current geographic distribution in the HoA of 1,213,000 km2. Phacochoerus africanus appears to be the more adaptable species although P. aethiopicus is able to live where mean annual rainfall is more variable. Although both species are allopatric over vast regions, they are sympatric in central east Ethiopia, north Somalia, central Kenya, north coast of Kenya, and southeast Kenya. Both suids remain locally common, their populations are, however, in decline due to the negative impacts on the environment by the rapidly growing human populations in all five countries.

Spatial evaluation of the ecological value importance of national park in Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon

The Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon (YTGC) region is one of China's vital gene banks of mountain biological species resources. It is also an experimental site for biologists worldwide to study how organisms differentiate in the exceptional environment of the plateau. Evaluating the importance of the ecological value and identifying extremely important regions to national parks to implement the strictest conservation is significant to protecting and preserving global biodiversity. YTGC as the study area, and a comprehensive evaluation model conformed to ecological value attributes was established: (i) evaluation of ecosystem service function, including water retention, soil and water conservation and biodiversity maintenance; (ii) evaluation of ecological vulnerability, including soil erosion and geological disasters; (iii) evaluation of ecological conservation, including Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs), Global 200 Ecoregions (G200), Biodiversity Hotspots (BH), Endemic Bird Areas (EBAs) and Priority Areas for Biodiversity Conservation in China (PABCC). Identifying as extremely important, important, and general important regions, then mosaicked with the maximum value. The results show: first, the extremely important regions of ecosystem service are about 30,242.90 km² (45.64%), distributed in most regions flowing southwest along the Yarlung Zangbo River. Second, the ecological vulnerability regions are about 26,561.65 km² (40.06%), concentrated and contiguously distributed in the valley regions along the Yarlung Zangbo River and the high-altitude glacier-covered regions. Third, the extremely important regions for ecological conservation are mainly distributed in Milin County (39.86%) and Medog County (36.33%), which also presents a clustered distribution in the highly high mountains with apparent differentiation along the Yarlung Zangbo River valley in Milin County and the vertical natural belt centered on the Namjagbarwa and the Galabai Leifeng. Finally, we proposed that the integrated extremely important regions of ecological value should be divided into national parks for strict conservation; at the same time, it is also a reference for considering the construction of biodiversity conservation corridors when roads pass through the extremely important regions. This study presents a reliable and integrative method for effectively identifying conservation priority areas at small-medium scales, which can be applied to other PAs planning and management.

Functional connectivity of the world's protected areas

Global policies call for connecting protected areas (PAs) to conserve the flow of animals and genes across changing landscapes, yet whether global PA networks currently support animal movement-and where connectivity conservation is most critical-remain largely unknown. In this study, we map the functional connectivity of the world's terrestrial PAs and quantify national PA connectivity through the lens of moving mammals. We find that mitigating the human footprint may improve connectivity more than adding new PAs, although both strategies together maximize benefits. The most globally important areas of concentrated mammal movement remain unprotected, with 71% of these overlapping with global biodiversity priority areas and 6% occurring on land with moderate to high human modification. Conservation and restoration of critical connectivity areas could safeguard PA connectivity while supporting other global conservation priorities.

Bibliometric Analysis of Global Research on Ecological Networks in Nature Conservation from 1990 to 2020

As a nature-based solution to land-use sustainability, ecological networks (ENs) have received substantial attention from researchers, planners, and decision-makers worldwide. To portray the global research on ENs in nature conservation during the period of 1990–2020, 1371 papers in 53 subject categories were reviewed with bibliometric methods and CiteSpace. The results showed a successive growth of publications at an annually averaged rate of 18.9% during the past three decades. Co-citation analysis indicated that the most popular topic was connectivity, on which the studies concentrated on quantifying connectivity, identifying priority areas, and integrating conservation planning. A recent hotspot is to study the landscape fragmentation effects on natural habitats or biodiversity under land-use changes in urbanized areas. Multidisciplinary approaches have been increasingly used to tackle more complex interplays among economic, social, ecological, and cultural factors, with the aim of alleviating ecological service losses attributed to human activities. Spatiotemporal dynamics and participatory design of ENs at different scales have become an emerging trend. In order to address increasing pressures on biodiversity or landscape connectivity brought about by land use and climate change, it is suggested to develop more research on the evaluation and management of the resilience of ENs.

Understanding Social Dimensions in Wildlife Conservation: Multiple Stakeholder Views

Simple Summary

Garnering support from multiple stakeholders to increase the number or size of protected areas remains a key challenge for wildlife conservation efforts in Malaysia. Human–wildlife conflict often arises when local socio-economic development compromises wildlife survival due to negative landscape changes. It is essential to assess both human–wildlife conflict and human–human conflicts about wildlife, in order to promote mutually beneficial human–wildlife coexistence. This paper examines pertinent factors influencing wildlife conservation by integrating ecological and social approaches using a conservation planning framework. The findings demonstrate the importance of appraising social values to address issues such as size limits for protected areas and compensation for wildlife damage to property. It shows that monetary incentives are not the sole determinant in gaining the support of indigenous people in reporting wildlife crimes and their active participation in conservation programs. Therefore, developing effective communication with stakeholders, empowerment of rural communities, and proper appraisal of social values are all urgently needed to promote effective rural wildlife conservation programs.

Abstract

Numerous studies show the importance of social understanding in addressing multifaceted conservation issues. Building on a conservation planning framework, this study examines the social dimensions of wildlife conservation in Kinabatangan, Sabah, Malaysia. It employs a qualitative approach by conducting in-depth, semi-structured interviews with sixty informants drawn from local community members, government officials, tourism operators, non-government organizations, and the private sector. Our results show that the incidence of human–wildlife conflicts has reduced in the region, but that conflicts among stakeholders themselves about wildlife still remain a significant threat for attaining successful conservation outcomes. Further stakeholder perceptions of increased wildlife numbers often contrast with actual counts returned by periodical surveys conducted by conservation agencies, e.g., showing a 30% decline of orangutans and a 29% decline of gibbon abundance. This shows that evidence-based conservation messages have not been communicated well. The study has implications for enhancing social values among conservation players, promoting local community empowerment and revising conservation awareness programs.

Biodiversity of vertebrates in Argentina: patterns of richness, endemism and conservation status

Optimising conservation efforts requires an accurate record of the extant species as well as their geographic distributions. Nevertheless, most current conservation strategies start from an incomplete biodiversity inventory. Argentina has an extraordinary diversity of species, however, until now an updated inventory of its fauna has not been carried out. In this context, the main objective of this work is to present the results of the first national inventory of vertebrate species. Experts from each major vertebrate taxonomic group assembled and compiled its respective inventory. The information gathered included taxonomic rank, conservation status, endemism and geographic distribution. Species richness and representativeness were calculated for each taxonomic group, distinguishing between native, endemic and exotic, for each Argentinian province. Our results show Argentina harbours 3,303 species: 574 marine fish, 561 freshwater fish, 177 amphibians, 450 reptiles, 1,113 birds, and 428 mammals. Native species constitute 98.1% of the total taxa. The results achieved were spatially represented showing a pattern of higher richness from north to south and from east to west. Species considered as threatened account for 17.8% and 15.2% are endemic. There are five Extinct species. These results provide key information on developing strategies and public policies at the national and provincial levels and constitute a tool for the management and conservation of biodiversity.

Connectivity conservation at the crossroads: protected areas versus payments for ecosystem services in conserving connectivity for Colombian carnivores

Protected areas (PAs) constitute one of the main tools for global landscape conservation. Recently, payments for environmental services (PES) have attracted interest from national and regional governments and are becoming one of the leading conservation policy instruments in tropical countries. However, the degree to which areas designated for PES overlap with areas that are critical for maintaining species' landscape connectivity is rarely evaluated. We estimated habitat distributions and connectivity for 16 of the 22 mammalian carnivores occurring in the Caribbean region of Colombia, and identified the overlap between existing PAs and areas identified as being important for connectivity for these species. We also evaluated the potential impact of creation of new PAs versus new PES areas on conserving connectivity for carnivores. Our results show that PAs cover only a minor percentage of the total area that is important for maintaining connectivity ( x = 26.8 % ± 20.2   s . d . ). On the other hand, PES, if implemented extensively, could contribute substantially to mammalian carnivores' connectivity ( x = 45.4 % ± 12.8   s . d . ). However, in a more realistic scenario with limited conservation investment in which fewer areas are set aside, a strategy based on implementing new PAs seems superior to PES. We argue that prioritizing designation of new PAs will be the most efficient means through which to maintain connectivity.

Identifying managerial legacies within conservation corridors using remote sensing and grasshoppers as bioindicators

Biodiversity conservation under global change requires effective management of key biodiversity areas, even areas not under formal protection. Natural grassland conservation corridors between plantation forests are such areas, as they improve landscape connectivity, mitigate the impact of landscape fragmentation, and conserve biodiversity. However, empirical evidence is required to identify the extent to which past management actions promote effectiveness of conservation corridors into the future. We address this issue using grasshoppers, which are well-established indicators of habitat quality. In particular, we assess grasshopper response within corridors to historic grassland photosynthetic activity using a 25-yr normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series. We then use vegetation characteristics measured in the field to understand the potential mechanisms driving grasshopper response. Furthermore, we explore the efficacy of satellite remote sensing for monitoring grasshopper habitat using additive models. We found that grasshopper evenness responded positively to deviation in NDVI within a 3-yr period, whereas assemblage composition responded positively over a shorter time of two years. Grasshopper richness and evenness responded strongly to the local vegetation height and bare ground, whereas grasshopper assemblage composition also responded to plant species richness. We found a major negative impact of the invasive alien bramble (Rubus cuneifolius) on large-sized grasshoppers and species of conservation concern. Overall, the results illustrate the importance of maintaining primary high-quality habitat for maintaining grasshopper diversity, alongside removal of invasive bramble. We recommend prescribed burning to maintain high-quality habitat heterogeneity, with sites burned within three years. Furthermore, high-resolution satellite imagery is effective for monitoring grasshopper richness and assemblage composition response to changes in vegetation within the corridors. Grassland conservation corridors do conserve biodiversity, although effective management and monitoring needs to be in place to ensure biodiversity resembles that of neighbouring protected areas.

Integrating ecosystem services modeling into effectiveness assessment of national protected areas in a typical arid region in China

Protected areas (PAs) are essential for biodiversity conservation and for the delivery of ecosystem services (ESs). However, little is known about their effectiveness in providing ESs and contribution to species richness, especially in arid regions. Effectiveness evaluation is fundamental to understanding the extent of management enhancement required to fulfill conservation targets. In this study, we analyzed the supply of six ESs (water yield, nutrient retention, soil retention, sand fixation, carbon storage, and biodiversity richness) by landscapes in China's arid region of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (hereafter Xinjiang). The aim was to identify distribution of ESs hotspots and the extent of hotspots located within or outside national PAs. The results showed significant spatial heterogeneity and coverage differences in six types of ESs hotspots. Hotspots coverage of six ESs on average accounted for 10.45 % of the total area, distributed mainly in mountains and oases covered by vegetation and wetlands. Among these ESs hotspots, over 50 % fell within PAs. This suggested that although PAs delivered moderately well outcomes in preserving ESs and biodiversity in Xinjiang, conservation gaps needed to be addressed. Our study also revealed substantial differences in ESs supplied by different PAs, and serious deficiency existed in some PAs in protecting either biodiversity or key ESs outlined in their conservation objectives. Our study illustrated the priority areas for future conservation expansion and stressed the urgent shift toward broadening the goals of PAs from a dominant focus to ones that encompass multiple ESs for human well-being.

Estimation of Current and Future Suitable Areas for Tapirus pinchaque in Ecuador

At present, climate change is a direct threat to biodiversity and its effects are evidenced by an increasingly accelerated loss of biodiversity. This study identified the main threats presently facing the Tapirus pinchaque species in Ecuador, generated predictive models regarding its distribution, and analyzed the protected areas as a conservation tool. The methodology was based on a literature review and the application of binary predictive models to achieve these objectives. The main results indicate that the T. pinchaque is seriously threatened, mainly by changes in land use. In addition, three models were selected that show current and future suitable areas for the conservation of the species. Its current distribution amounts to 67,805 km2, 33% (22,872 km2) of which is located in 31 of the 61 protected areas. Finally, it is important to take timely actions focused on biodiversity conservation, considering the importance of balance in ecosystems to the humans dependent thereof, and the results regarding the changes in the current and future distribution areas of the mountain tapir are a great contribution to be used as a management tool for its conservation.

Modeling an aspirational connected network of protected areas across North America

Connecting protected areas remains an important global conservation strategy in the face of ongoing and future threats to biodiversity. Amid our growing understanding of how species' distributions will respond to climate change, conservation scientists need to plan for connectivity conservation across entire continents. We modeled multiscale connectivity priorities based on the least human-modified lands between large protected areas of North America using least-cost and circuit theory approaches. We first identified priority corridors between large protected areas, then characterized the network's structure to unveil priority linkages most important for maintaining network- and regional-level connectivity. Agreement between least-cost corridors and current flow varied throughout North America, reflecting permeable landscape conditions and "pinch points" where potential ecological flows may concentrate between protected areas. Priority network-level linkages derived from each approach were similar throughout the continental network (e.g., Rocky Mountains and Canadian boreal), but critical linkages that bridged regional protected-area networks varied. We emphasize the importance of planning for connectivity at continental scales and demonstrate the utility of multiple methods when mapping connectivity priorities across large spatial extents with wide gradients in landscape conditions.

Habitat patches providing south-north connectivity are under-protected in a fragmented landscape

As species' ranges shift to track climate change, conservationists increasingly recognize the need to consider connectivity when designating protected areas (PAs). In fragmented landscapes, some habitat patches are more important than others in maintaining connectivity, and methods are needed for their identification. Here, using the Condatis methodology, we model range expansion through an adaptation of circuit theory. Specifically, we map 'flow' through 16 conservation priority habitat networks in England, quantifying how patches contribute to functional South-North connectivity. We also explore how much additional connectivity could be protected via a connectivity-led protection procedure. We find high-flow patches are often left out of existing PAs; across 12 of 16 habitat networks, connectivity protection falls short of area protection by 13.6% on average. We conclude that the legacy of past protection decisions has left habitat-specialist species vulnerable to climate change. This situation may be mirrored in many countries which have similar habitat protection principles. Addressing this requires specific planning tools that can account for the directions species may shift. Our connectivity-led reserve selection procedure efficiently identifies additional PAs that prioritize connectivity, protecting a median of 40.9% more connectivity in these landscapes with just a 10% increase in area.

Benefits Beyond Borders: Assessing Landowner Willingness-to-Accept Incentives for Conservation Outside Protected Areas

Unplanned land-use change surrounding protected areas (PAs) can lead to degradation and fragmentation of wildlife habitats, thereby placing tremendous pressure on PAs especially in tropical countries. Incentivizing the expansion of habitats beyond PAs will not only benefit wildlife but also has the potential to create livelihood opportunities for marginalized communities living adjacent to PAs. Our study explored landowners’ willingness to participate in an incentive-based, wildlife-friendly land-use program using a discrete choice modeling approach. We surveyed 699 landowners living in 287 villages within a five-kilometer buffer around Nagarahole and Bandipur National Parks in India. We found that landowners preferred wildlife-friendly land-use over their ongoing farming practices. Landowners preferred short-term programs, requiring enrolling smaller parcels of land for wildlife-friendly land-use, and offering higher payment amounts. Landowners with larger landholdings, a longer history of living next to the PA, and growing fewer commercial crops were more likely to prefer enrolling large parcels of land. Landowners who grew more commercial crops were likely to prefer long term programs. We also estimated the average monetary incentive to be INR 64,000 (US$ 914) per acre per year. Wildlife-friendly land use, in developing economies like India with shrinking wildlife habitats and expanding infrastructural developments, could supplement rural incomes and potentially expand habitat for wildlife, thereby being a promising conservation strategy.

Global progress in incorporating climate adaptation into land protection for biodiversity since Aichi targets

Climate adaptation strategies are being developed and implemented to protect biodiversity from the impacts of climate change. A well-established strategy involves the identification and addition of new areas for conservation, and most countries agreed in 2010 to expand the global protected area (PA) network to 17% by 2020 (Aichi Biodiversity Target 11). Although great efforts to expand the global PA network have been made, the potential of newly established PAs to conserve biodiversity under future climate change remains unclear at the global scale. Here, we conducted the first global-extent, country-level assessment of the contribution of PA network expansion toward three key land prioritization approaches for biodiversity persistence under climate change: protecting climate refugia, protecting abiotic diversity, and increasing connectivity. These approaches avoid uncertainties of biodiversity predictions under climate change as well as the issue of undescribed species. We found that 51% of the countries created new PAs in locations with lower mean climate velocity (representing better climate refugia) and 58% added PAs in areas with higher mean abiotic diversity compared to the available, non-human-dominated lands not chosen for protection. However, connectivity among PAs declined in 53% of the countries, indicating that many new PAs were located far from existing PAs. Lastly, we identified potential improvements for climate adaptation, showing that 94% of the countries have the opportunity to improve in executing one or more approaches to conserve biodiversity. Most countries (60%) were associated with multiple opportunities, highlighting the need for integrative strategies that target multiple land protection approaches. Our results demonstrate that a global improvement in the protection of climate refugia, abiotic diversity, and connectivity of reserves is needed to complement land protection informed by existing and projected species distributions. Our study also provides a framework for countries to prioritize land protection for climate adaptation using publicly available data.

Built-up areas within and around protected areas: Global patterns and 40-year trends

Protected areas (PAs) are a key strategy in global efforts to conserve biodiversity and ecosystem services that are critical for human well-being. Most PAs have some built-up structures within their boundaries or in surrounding areas, ranging from individual buildings to villages, towns and cities. These structures, and the associated human activities, can exert direct and indirect pressures on PAs. Here we present the first global analysis of current patterns and observed long-term trends in built-up areas within terrestrial PAs and their immediate surroundings. We calculate for each PA larger than 5 km² and for its 10-km unprotected buffer zone the percentage of land area covered by built-up areas in 1975, 1990, 2000 and 2014. We find that globally built-up areas cover only 0.12% of PA extent and a much higher 2.71% of the unprotected buffers as of 2014, compared to 0.6% of all land (protected or unprotected). Built-up extent in and around PAs is highest in Europe and Asia, and lowest in Africa and Oceania. Built-up area percentage is higher in coastal and small PAs, and lower in older PAs and in PAs with stricter management categories. From 1975 to 2014, the increase in built-up area was 23 times larger in the 10-km unprotected buffers than within PAs. Our findings show that the development of built-up structures remains limited within the boundaries of PAs but highlight the need to carefully manage the considerable pressure that PAs face from their immediate surroundings.

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We globally assess the extent of built-up areas (buildings) in protected areas (PAs) and their 10-km unprotected buffers.

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Buildings cover 0.12% of PAs and 2.71% of their buffers globally.

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Small, coastal, less strictly managed or recent PAs have much higher built-up pressure.

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From 1975 to 2014, built-up areas increased 23 times more in PA buffers than within PAs.

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PAs are effective in limiting building construction, but face considerable pressure from their surroundings.

Climate-Wise Habitat Connectivity Takes Sustained Stakeholder Engagement

Well-managed and connected protected area networks are needed to combat the 6th mass extinction, yet the implementation of plans intended to secure landscape connectivity remains insufficient. The failure to translate planning efforts into effective action (i.e., the research-implementation gap) hinders our ability to conserve biodiversity threatened by ongoing climate change and habitat fragmentation. Sustained collaboration between researchers and practitioners to co-produce conservation strategies can bridge this gap by providing end-users with implementation guidance based on legitimate, relevant, and trusted information. However, few case studies capture methods for the co-production and use of climate-wise connectivity knowledge. Here we describe the framework for sustained engagement used by a multi-jurisdictional practitioner network to co-produce climate-wise linkages for the interior coastal ranges in Northern California. We found iterative co-production shaped ecological objectives, input data, analytical methods, and implementation priorities. Stakeholders used both co-produced and local socio-ecological (e.g., development threat, management priorities) knowledge to finalize corridor implementation plans. Priority corridors afforded greater climate benefit and were more likely to connect lands managed by participant organizations. Our results demonstrate how collaborative partnerships can bridge the gap between connectivity research and implementation. Lessons learned, outcomes, and future plans provide insights to advance landscape-scale resilience to climate change.

Planning for Dynamic Connectivity: Operationalizing Robust Decision-Making and Prioritization Across Landscapes Experiencing Climate and Land-Use Change

Preserving landscape connectivity is one of the most frequently recommended strategies to address the synergistic threats of climate change, habitat fragmentation, and intensifying disturbances. Although assessments to develop plans for linked and connected landscapes in response to climate and land-use change have been increasingly employed in the last decade, efforts to operationalize and implement these plans have been limited. Here, we present a framework using existing, available biological data to design an implementable, comprehensive multispecies connectivity plan. This framework uses a scenario-based approach to consider how ecosystems, habitats, and species may need to adapt to future conditions with an ensemble of connectivity models. We use the south coast ecoregion of California as an example to evaluate and prioritize linkages by combining linked metapopulation models and key landscape features (e.g., conservation planning status and implementation feasibility) to identify and prioritize a multispecies linkage network. Our analyses identified approximately 30,000 km2 of land, roughly one-fifth of our study area, where actions to preserve or enhance connectivity may support climate adaptation, nearly half of which is already conserved. By developing and implementing a dynamic connectivity assessment with an eye towards projected changes, our analysis demonstrates how dynamic connectivity can be integrated into feasible regional conservation and management plans that account for demographic as well as landscape change. We observed overlap across multiple models, reinforcing the importance of areas that appeared across methods. We also identified unique areas important for connectivity captured by our complementary models. By integrating multiple approaches, the resultant linkage network is robust, building on the strengths of a variety of methods to identify model consensus and reduce uncertainty. By linking quantitative connectivity metrics with prioritized areas for conservation, our approach supports transparent and robust decision-making for landscape planning, despite uncertainties of climate and land-use change.

Just ten percent of the global terrestrial protected area network is structurally connected via intact land

Land free of direct anthropogenic disturbance is considered essential for achieving biodiversity conservation outcomes but is rapidly eroding. In response, many nations are increasing their protected area (PA) estates, but little consideration is given to the context of the surrounding landscape. This is despite the fact that structural connectivity between PAs is critical in a changing climate and mandated by international conservation targets. Using a high-resolution assessment of human pressure, we show that while ~40% of the terrestrial planet is intact, only 9.7% of Earth's terrestrial protected network can be considered structurally connected. On average, 11% of each country or territory's PA estate can be considered connected. As the global community commits to bolder action on abating biodiversity loss, placement of future PAs will be critical, as will an increased focus on landscape-scale habitat retention and restoration efforts to ensure those important areas set aside for conservation outcomes will remain (or become) connected.

A "Global Safety Net" to reverse biodiversity loss and stabilize Earth's climate

Global strategies to halt the dual crises of biodiversity loss and climate change are often formulated separately, even though they are interdependent and risk failure if pursued in isolation. The Global Safety Net maps how expanded nature conservation addresses both overarching threats. We identify 50% of the terrestrial realm that, if conserved, would reverse further biodiversity loss, prevent CO₂ emissions from land conversion, and enhance natural carbon removal. This framework shows that, beyond the 15.1% land area currently protected, 35.3% of land area is needed to conserve additional sites of particular importance for biodiversity and stabilize the climate. Fifty ecoregions and 20 countries contribute disproportionately to proposed targets. Indigenous lands overlap extensively with the Global Safety Net. Conserving the Global Safety Net could support public health by reducing the potential for zoonotic diseases like COVID-19 from emerging in the future.

Land productivity dynamics in and around protected areas globally from 1999 to 2013

Tracking changes in total biomass production or land productivity is an essential part of monitoring land transformations and long-term alterations of the health and productive capacity of land that are typically associated with land degradation. Persistent declines in land productivity impact many terrestrial ecosystem services that form the basis for sustainable livelihoods of human communities. Protected areas (PAs) are key to globally conserve biodiversity and ecosystem services that are critical for human well-being, and cover about 15% of the land worldwide. Here we globally assess the trends in land productivity in PAs of at least 10 km2 and in their unprotected surroundings (10 km buffers) from 1999 to 2013. We quantify the percentage of the protected and unprotected land that shows stable, increasing or decreasing trends in land productivity, quantified as long-term (15 year) changes in above-ground biomass derived from satellite-based observations with a spatial resolution of 1 km. We find that 44% of the land in PAs globally has retained the productivity at stable levels from 1999 to 2013, compared to 42% of stable productivity in the unprotected land around PAs. Persistent increases in productivity are more common in the unprotected lands around PAs (32%) than within PAs (18%) globally, while about 14% of the protected land and 12% of the unprotected land around PAs has experienced declines in land productivity. Oceania has the highest percentage of land with stable productivity in PAs (57%), whereas Europe has the lowest percentage (38%) and also the largest share of protected land with increasing land productivity (32%). We discuss the observed differences between PAs and unprotected lands, and between different parts of the world, in relation to different types and levels of human activities and their impact on land productivity. Our assessment of land productivity dynamics helps to characterise the state, pressures and changes in and around protected areas globally. Further research may focus on more detailed analyses to disentangle the relative contribution of specific drivers (from climate change to land use change) and their interaction with land productivity dynamics and potential land degradation in different regions of the world.

Incorporating connectivity into conservation planning for the optimal representation of multiple species and ecosystem services

Conservation planning tends to focus on protecting species' ranges or landscape connectivity but seldom both-particularly in the case of diverse taxonomic assemblages and multiple planning goals. Therefore, information on potential trade-offs between maintaining landscape connectivity and achieving other conservation objectives is lacking. We developed an optimization approach to prioritize the maximal protection of species' ranges, ecosystem types, and forest carbon stocks, while also including habitat connectivity for range-shifting species and dispersal corridors to link protected area. We applied our approach to Sabah, Malaysia, where the state government mandated an increase in protected-area coverage of approximately 305,000 ha but did not specify where new protected areas should be. Compared with a conservation planning approach that did not incorporate the 2 connectivity features, our approach increased the protection of dispersal corridors and elevational connectivity by 13% and 21%, respectively. Coverage of vertebrate and plant species' ranges and forest types were the same whether connectivity was included or excluded. Our approach protected 2% less forest carbon and 3% less butterfly range than when connectivity features were not included. Hence, the inclusion of connectivity into conservation planning can generate large increases in the protection of landscape connectivity with minimal loss of representation of other conservation targets.

Mapping legal authority for terrestrial conservation corridors along streams

Wildlife corridors aim to promote species' persistence by connecting habitat patches across fragmented landscapes. Their implementation is limited by patterns of land ownership and complicated by differences in the jurisdictional and regulatory authorities under which lands are managed. Terrestrial corridor conservation requires coordination across jurisdictions and sectors subject to site-specific overlapping sources of legal authority. Mapping spatial patterns of legal authority concurrent with habitat condition can illustrate opportunities to build or leverage capacity for connectivity conservation. Streamside areas provide pragmatic opportunities to leverage existing policy mechanisms for riverine and terrestrial habitat connectivity across boundaries. Conservation planners and practitioners can make use of these opportunities by harmonizing actions for multiple conservation outcomes. We formulated an integrative, data-driven method for mapping multiple sources of legal authority weighted by capacity for coordinating terrestrial habitat conservation along streams. We generated a map of capacity to coordinate streamside corridor protections across a wildlife habitat gap to demonstrate this approach. We combined values representing coordination capacity and naturalness to generate an integrated legal-ecological resistance map for connectivity modeling. We then computed least-cost corridors across the integrated map, masking the terrestrial landscape to focus on streamside areas. Streamside least-cost corridors in the integrated, local-scale model diverged (∼25 km) from national-scale least-cost corridors based on naturalness. Spatial categories comparing legal- and naturalness-based resistance values by stream reach highlighted potential locations for building or leveraging existing capacity through spatial coordination of policy mechanisms or restoration actions. Agencies or nongovernmental organizations intending to restore or maintain habitat connectivity across fragmented landscapes can use this approach to inform spatial prioritization and build coordination capacity. Article impact statement: Combined mapping of legal authority and habitat condition reveals capacity to coordinate actions along streams for clean water and wildlife.

Connectivity of Protected Areas: Effect of Human Pressure and Subnational Contributions in the Ecoregions of Tropical Andean Countries

Conservationists recognize the value of protected area (PA) systems, with adequate coverage, ecological representation, connection, and management to deliver conservation benefits. Yet, governments primarily focus on coverage, disregarding quantification of the other criteria. While recent studies have assessed global representation and connectivity, they present limitations due to: (1) limited accuracy of the World Database of Protected Areas used, as governments may report areas that do not meet the IUCN or CBD PA definitions or omit subnational PAs, and (2) failure to include human impacts on the landscape in connectivity assessments. We constructed a validated PA database for Tropical Andean Countries (TAC; Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Perú, and Venezuela) and used the existing Protected-Connected-Land (ProtConn) indicator—incorporating the Global Human Footprint as a spatial proxy for human pressure—to evaluate TAC ecoregions’ representation and connectivity. We found that just 27% of ecoregions in the TAC are both protected and connected on more than 17% of their lands. As we included human pressure, we conclude that previous global ProtConn studies overestimate PA connectivity. Subnational PAs are promising for strengthening the representation of PA systems. If nations seek to meet Aichi target 11, or an upcoming post-2020 30% target, further efforts are needed to implement and report subnational conservation areas and appropriately evaluate PA systems.

Forecasting Seasonal Habitat Connectivity in a Developing Landscape

Connectivity and wildlife corridors are often key components to successful conservation and management plans. Connectivity for wildlife is typically modeled in a static environment that reflects a single snapshot in time. However, it has been shown that, when compared with dynamic connectivity models, static models can underestimate connectivity and mask important population processes. Therefore, including dynamism in connectivity models is important if the goal is to predict functional connectivity. We incorporated four levels of dynamism (individual, daily, seasonal, and interannual) into an individual-based movement model for black bears (Ursus americanus) in Massachusetts, USA. We used future development projections to model movement into the year 2050. We summarized habitat connectivity over the 32-year simulation period as the number of simulated movement paths crossing each pixel in our study area. Our results predict black bears will further colonize the expanding part of their range in the state and move beyond this range towards the greater Boston metropolitan area. This information is useful to managers for predicting and addressing human–wildlife conflict and in targeting public education campaigns on bear awareness. Including dynamism in connectivity models can produce more realistic models and, when future projections are incorporated, can ensure the identification of areas that offer long-term functional connectivity for wildlife.