1
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Arneth A, Leadley P, Claudet J, Coll M, Rondinini C, Rounsevell MDA, Shin YJ, Alexander P, Fuchs R. Making protected areas effective for biodiversity, climate and food. Glob Chang Biol 2023; 29:3883-3894. [PMID: 36872638 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16664] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2022] [Accepted: 02/27/2023] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
The spatial extent of marine and terrestrial protected areas (PAs) was among the most intensely debated issues prior to the decision about the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Positive impacts of PAs on habitats, species diversity and abundance are well documented. Yet, biodiversity loss continues unabated despite efforts to protect 17% of land and 10% of the oceans by 2020. This casts doubt on whether extending PAs to 30%, the agreed target in the Kunming-Montreal GBF, will indeed achieve meaningful biodiversity benefits. Critically, the focus on area coverage obscures the importance of PA effectiveness and overlooks concerns about the impact of PAs on other sustainability objectives. We propose a simple means of assessing and visualising the complex relationships between PA area coverage and effectiveness and their effects on biodiversity conservation, nature-based climate mitigation and food production. Our analysis illustrates how achieving a 30% PA global target could be beneficial for biodiversity and climate. It also highlights important caveats: (i) achieving lofty area coverage objectives alone will be of little benefit without concomitant improvements in effectiveness, (ii) trade-offs with food production particularly for high levels of coverage and effectiveness are likely and (iii) important differences in terrestrial and marine systems need to be recognized when setting and implementing PA targets. The CBD's call for a significant increase in PA will need to be accompanied by clear PA effectiveness goals to reduce and revert dangerous anthropogenic impacts on socio-ecological systems and biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Almut Arneth
- KIT, Department of Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
- KIT, Department of Geography and Geoecology, Karlsruhe, Germany
| | - Paul Leadley
- ESE Laboratory, Université Paris-Saclay/CNRS/AgroParisTech, Orsay, France
| | - Joachim Claudet
- National Center for Scientific Research, PSL Université Paris, CRIOBE, CNRS-EPHE-UPVD, Paris, France
| | - Marta Coll
- Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC), Passeig Maritim de la Barceloneta, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Carlo Rondinini
- Global Mammal Assessment Program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
- Global Wildlife Conservation Center, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, New York City, New York, USA
| | - Mark D A Rounsevell
- KIT, Department of Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
- KIT, Department of Geography and Geoecology, Karlsruhe, Germany
- School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Yunne-Jai Shin
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Univ Montpellier, IFREMER, CNRS, MARBEC, Montpellier, France
| | - Peter Alexander
- School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Richard Fuchs
- KIT, Department of Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
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2
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Alexander P, Arneth A, Henry R, Maire J, Rabin S, Rounsevell MDA. High energy and fertilizer prices are more damaging than food export curtailment from Ukraine and Russia for food prices, health and the environment. Nat Food 2023; 4:84-95. [PMID: 37118577 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-022-00659-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2022] [Accepted: 11/04/2022] [Indexed: 04/30/2023]
Abstract
Higher food prices arising from restrictions on exports from Russia or Ukraine have been exacerbated by energy price rises, leading to higher costs for agricultural inputs such as fertilizer. Here, using a scenario modelling approach, we quantify the potential outcomes of increasing agricultural input costs and the curtailment of exports from Russia and Ukraine on human health and the environment. We show that, combined, agricultural inputs costs and food export restrictions could increase food costs by 60-100% in 2023 from 2021 levels, potentially leading to undernourishment of 61-107 million people in 2023 and annual additional deaths of 416,000 to 1.01 million people if the associated dietary patterns are maintained. Furthermore, reduced land use intensification arising from higher input costs would lead to agricultural land expansion and associated carbon and biodiversity loss. The impact of agricultural input costs on food prices is larger than that from curtailment of Russian and Ukrainian exports. Restoring food trade from Ukraine and Russia alone is therefore insufficient to avoid food insecurity problem from higher energy and fertilizer prices. We contend that the immediacy of the food export problems associated with the war diverted attention away from the principal causes of current global food insecurity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Alexander
- School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
- Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Security, The Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush Campus, Midlothian, UK.
| | - Almut Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
- Geography & Geo-ecology, Campus Süd, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
| | - Roslyn Henry
- Institute of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, King's College, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Juliette Maire
- School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Sam Rabin
- Center for Environmental Prediction, School of Environmental & Biological Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
| | - Mark D A Rounsevell
- School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
- Geography & Geo-ecology, Campus Süd, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
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3
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark D A Rounsevell
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen 82467, Germany. .,School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, UK
| | - Mike Harfoot
- UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK
| | | | - Tim Newbold
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK
| | - Richard D Gregory
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK.,RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, the Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire SG19 2DL, UK
| | - Georgina M Mace
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK
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Alexander P, Rabin S, Anthoni P, Henry R, Pugh TAM, Rounsevell MDA, Arneth A. Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Glob Chang Biol 2018; 24:2791-2809. [PMID: 29485759 PMCID: PMC6032878 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14110] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2017] [Revised: 01/22/2018] [Accepted: 02/14/2018] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
Land use contributes to environmental change, but is also influenced by such changes. Climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) levels' changes alter agricultural crop productivity, plant water requirements and irrigation water availability. The global food system needs to respond and adapt to these changes, for example, by altering agricultural practices, including the crop types or intensity of management, or shifting cultivated areas within and between countries. As impacts and associated adaptation responses are spatially specific, understanding the land use adaptation to environmental changes requires crop productivity representations that capture spatial variations. The impact of variation in management practices, including fertiliser and irrigation rates, also needs to be considered. To date, models of global land use have selected agricultural expansion or intensification levels using relatively aggregate spatial representations, typically at a regional level, that are not able to characterise the details of these spatially differentiated responses. Here, we show results from a novel global modelling approach using more detailed biophysically derived yield responses to inputs with greater spatial specificity than previously possible. The approach couples a dynamic global vegetative model (LPJ-GUESS) with a new land use and food system model (PLUMv2), with results benchmarked against historical land use change from 1970. Land use outcomes to 2100 were explored, suggesting that increased intensity of climate forcing reduces the inputs required for food production, due to the fertilisation and enhanced water use efficiency effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but requiring substantial shifts in the global and local patterns of production. The results suggest that adaptation in the global agriculture and food system has substantial capacity to diminish the negative impacts and gain greater benefits from positive outcomes of climate change. Consequently, agricultural expansion and intensification may be lower than found in previous studies where spatial details and processes consideration were more constrained.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Alexander
- School of GeosciencesUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUK
- Global Academy of Agriculture and Food SecurityThe Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary StudiesUniversity of EdinburghMidlothianUK
| | - Sam Rabin
- Karlsruhe Institute of TechnologyInstitute of Meteorology and Climate ResearchAtmospheric Environmental Research (IMK‐IFU)Garmisch‐PartenkirchenGermany
| | - Peter Anthoni
- Karlsruhe Institute of TechnologyInstitute of Meteorology and Climate ResearchAtmospheric Environmental Research (IMK‐IFU)Garmisch‐PartenkirchenGermany
| | - Roslyn Henry
- School of GeosciencesUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUK
| | - Thomas A. M. Pugh
- Karlsruhe Institute of TechnologyInstitute of Meteorology and Climate ResearchAtmospheric Environmental Research (IMK‐IFU)Garmisch‐PartenkirchenGermany
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental SciencesUniversity of BirminghamBirminghamUK
- Birmingham Institute of Forest ResearchUniversity of BirminghamBirminghamUK
| | - Mark D. A. Rounsevell
- School of GeosciencesUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUK
- Karlsruhe Institute of TechnologyInstitute of Meteorology and Climate ResearchAtmospheric Environmental Research (IMK‐IFU)Garmisch‐PartenkirchenGermany
| | - Almut Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of TechnologyInstitute of Meteorology and Climate ResearchAtmospheric Environmental Research (IMK‐IFU)Garmisch‐PartenkirchenGermany
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5
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Li S, Juhász-Horváth L, Pintér L, Rounsevell MDA, Harrison PA. Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary. Sci Total Environ 2018; 622-623:1611-1620. [PMID: 29054621 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.038] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2017] [Revised: 09/25/2017] [Accepted: 10/05/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural land systems under environmental change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sen Li
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK.
| | - Linda Juhász-Horváth
- Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University, Nádor u. 9, Budapest 1051, Hungary
| | - László Pintér
- Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University, Nádor u. 9, Budapest 1051, Hungary; International Institute for Sustainable Development, 325-111 Lombard Avenue, Winnipeg, MB R3B 0T4, Canada
| | - Mark D A Rounsevell
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Kreuzeckbahnstrasse 19, Garmisch-Partenkirchen 82467, Germany; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, UK
| | - Paula A Harrison
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Library Avenue, Lancaster LA1 4AP, UK
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6
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Li S, Juhász-Horváth L, Trájer A, Pintér L, Rounsevell MDA, Harrison PA. Lifestyle, habitat and farmers' risk of exposure to tick bites in an endemic area of tick-borne diseases in Hungary. Zoonoses Public Health 2017; 65:e248-e253. [PMID: 29044996 DOI: 10.1111/zph.12413] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2016] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Controlling tick bites on farmers is important to the management of tick-borne diseases and occupational health risks in agriculture. Based on an extensive household survey conducted between June and August 2015 with 219 farmers from western Hungary where tick-borne diseases are endemic, we analysed the pattern of farmers' self-reported contacts with ticks and investigated the potential interactions between farmers, landscape and the risk of exposure to tick bites. We developed a lifestyle typology based on farmers' socioeconomic profiles, farming objectives and time use patterns, and a habitat typology describing different configurations of tick habitats and agricultural areas in place of farming. We found no relationship between tick exposure risk and self-prevention. The lifestyle typology could be used to classify the risk of tick bites and the adoption of prevention measures into different levels, the difference between which could further be modified by the habitat typology. Our results suggest that (i) farmers who are frequently engaged in outdoor recreations and (ii) part-time and inexperienced farmers who have lower rate of preventive actions are likely to experience greater exposure to tick bites either in less cultivated, semi-natural habitats or in agricultural landscape with highly diverse land uses. Future disease prevention practices should take into consideration the interaction of lifestyle and habitat and the need to associate different farmer groups with different landscape configurations.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Li
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - L Juhász-Horváth
- Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University, Budapest, Hungary
| | - A Trájer
- MTA-PE, Limnoecology Research Group, Veszprém, Hungary
| | - L Pintér
- Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University, Budapest, Hungary.,International Institute for Sustainable Development, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
| | - M D A Rounsevell
- IMK-IFU, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany.,School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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7
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Blanco V, Brown C, Holzhauer S, Vulturius G, Rounsevell MDA. The importance of socio-ecological system dynamics in understanding adaptation to global change in the forestry sector. J Environ Manage 2017; 196:36-47. [PMID: 28284136 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.02.066] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2016] [Revised: 02/24/2017] [Accepted: 02/26/2017] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Adaptation is necessary to cope with or take advantage of the effects of climate change on socio-ecological systems. This is especially important in the forestry sector, which is sensitive to the ecological and economic impacts of climate change, and where the adaptive decisions of owners play out over long periods of time. Relatively little is known about how successful these decisions are likely to be in meeting demands for ecosystem services in an uncertain future. We explore adaptation to global change in the forestry sector using CRAFTY-Sweden; an agent-based model that represents large-scale land-use dynamics, based on the demand and supply of ecosystem services. Future impacts and adaptation within the Swedish forestry sector were simulated for scenarios of socio-economic change (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) and climatic change (Representative Concentration Pathways, for three climate models), between 2010 and 2100. Substantial differences were found in the competitiveness and coping ability of land owners implementing different management strategies through time. Generally, multi-objective management was found to provide the best basis for adaptation. Across large regions, however, a combination of management strategies was better at meeting ecosystem service demands. Results also show that adaptive capacity evolves through time in response to external (global) drivers and interactions between individual actors. This suggests that process-based models are more appropriate for the study of autonomous adaptation and future adaptive and coping capacities than models based on indicators, discrete time snapshots or exogenous proxies. Nevertheless, a combination of planned and autonomous adaptation by institutions and forest owners is likely to be more successful than either group acting alone.
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Affiliation(s)
- Victor Blanco
- Institute of Geography and the Lived Environment, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, United Kingdom.
| | - Calum Brown
- Institute of Geography and the Lived Environment, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, United Kingdom; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Sascha Holzhauer
- Institute of Geography and the Lived Environment, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, United Kingdom; Integrated Energy Systems, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Kassel, Wilhelmshöher Allee 73, 34121 Kassel, Germany
| | - Gregor Vulturius
- Institute of Geography and the Lived Environment, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, United Kingdom; Stockholm Environment Institute, Linnégatan 87D, SE-104 51 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Mark D A Rounsevell
- Institute of Geography and the Lived Environment, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, United Kingdom; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
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8
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Alexander P, Prestele R, Verburg PH, Arneth A, Baranzelli C, Batista E Silva F, Brown C, Butler A, Calvin K, Dendoncker N, Doelman JC, Dunford R, Engström K, Eitelberg D, Fujimori S, Harrison PA, Hasegawa T, Havlik P, Holzhauer S, Humpenöder F, Jacobs-Crisioni C, Jain AK, Krisztin T, Kyle P, Lavalle C, Lenton T, Liu J, Meiyappan P, Popp A, Powell T, Sands RD, Schaldach R, Stehfest E, Steinbuks J, Tabeau A, van Meijl H, Wise MA, Rounsevell MDA. Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections. Glob Chang Biol 2017; 23:767-781. [PMID: 27474896 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13447] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2016] [Revised: 07/21/2016] [Accepted: 07/22/2016] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Alexander
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
- Land Economy and Environment Research Group, SRUC, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3JG, UK
| | - Reinhard Prestele
- Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, HV 1081, The Netherlands
| | - Peter H Verburg
- Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, HV 1081, The Netherlands
| | - Almut Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, 82467, Germany
| | - Claudia Baranzelli
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Filipe Batista E Silva
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Calum Brown
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
| | - Adam Butler
- Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland, JCMB, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, EH9 3JZ, UK
| | - Katherine Calvin
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Nicolas Dendoncker
- Department of Geography, Namur Research Group on Sustainable Development, University of Namur, Rue de Bruxelles 61, Namur, B-5000, Belgium
| | - Jonathan C Doelman
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), P.O. Box 303, Bilthoven, 3720 AH, The Netherlands
| | - Robert Dunford
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK
| | - Kerstin Engström
- Department of Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Paradisgatan 2, Lund, Sweden
| | - David Eitelberg
- Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, HV 1081, The Netherlands
| | - Shinichiro Fujimori
- Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Paula A Harrison
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK
| | - Tomoko Hasegawa
- Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Petr Havlik
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria
| | - Sascha Holzhauer
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, 14412, Germany
| | - Chris Jacobs-Crisioni
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Atul K Jain
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
| | - Tamás Krisztin
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria
| | - Page Kyle
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Carlo Lavalle
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Tim Lenton
- Earth System Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Laver Building (Level 7), North Parks Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
| | - Jiayi Liu
- Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland, JCMB, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, EH9 3JZ, UK
| | - Prasanth Meiyappan
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, 14412, Germany
| | - Tom Powell
- Earth System Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Laver Building (Level 7), North Parks Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
| | - Ronald D Sands
- Resource and Rural Economics Division, US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Washington, DC, 20250, USA
| | - Rüdiger Schaldach
- Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Wilhelmshöher Allee 47, Kassel, D-34109, Germany
| | - Elke Stehfest
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), P.O. Box 303, Bilthoven, 3720 AH, The Netherlands
| | | | - Andrzej Tabeau
- LEI, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 29703, The Hague, 2502 LS, The Netherlands
| | - Hans van Meijl
- LEI, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 29703, The Hague, 2502 LS, The Netherlands
| | - Marshall A Wise
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Mark D A Rounsevell
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
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9
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Li S, Juhász-Horváth L, Harrison PA, Pintér L, Rounsevell MDA. Relating farmer's perceptions of climate change risk to adaptation behaviour in Hungary. J Environ Manage 2017; 185:21-30. [PMID: 28029477 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.10.051] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2016] [Revised: 08/10/2016] [Accepted: 10/24/2016] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Understanding how farmers perceive climate change risks and how this affects their willingness to adopt adaptation practices is critical for developing effective climate change response strategies for the agricultural sector. This study examines (i) the perceptual relationships between farmers' awareness of climate change phenomena, beliefs in climate change risks and actual adaptation behaviour, and (ii) how these relationships may be modified by farm-level antecedents related to human, social, financial capitals and farm characteristics. An extensive household survey was designed to investigate the current pattern of adaptation strategies and collect data on these perceptual variables and their potential antecedents from private landowners in Veszprém and Tolna counties, Hungary. Path analysis was used to explore the causal connections between variables. We found that belief in the risk of climate change was heightened by an increased awareness of directly observable climate change phenomena (i.e. water shortages and extreme weather events). The awareness of extreme weather events was a significant driver of adaptation behaviour. Farmers' actual adaptation behaviour was primarily driven by financial motives and managerial considerations (i.e. the aim of improving profit and product sales; gaining farm ownership and the amount of land managed; and, the existence of a successor), and stimulated by an innovative personality and the availability of information from socio-agricultural networks. These results enrich the empirical evidence in support of improving understanding of farmer decision-making processes, which is critical in developing well-targeted adaptation policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sen Li
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK.
| | - Linda Juhász-Horváth
- Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University, Nádor u. 9, Budapest, 1051, Hungary
| | - Paula A Harrison
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK; Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK
| | - László Pintér
- Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University, Nádor u. 9, Budapest, 1051, Hungary; International Institute for Sustainable Development, 325-111 Lombard Avenue, Winnipeg, MB R3B 0T4, Canada
| | - Mark D A Rounsevell
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
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Li S, Gilbert L, Harrison PA, Rounsevell MDA. Modelling the seasonality of Lyme disease risk and the potential impacts of a warming climate within the heterogeneous landscapes of Scotland. J R Soc Interface 2016; 13:rsif.2016.0140. [PMID: 27030039 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2016.0140] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2016] [Accepted: 03/04/2016] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Lyme disease is the most prevalent vector-borne disease in the temperate Northern Hemisphere. The abundance of infected nymphal ticks is commonly used as a Lyme disease risk indicator. Temperature can influence the dynamics of disease by shaping the activity and development of ticks and, hence, altering the contact pattern and pathogen transmission between ticks and their host animals. A mechanistic, agent-based model was developed to study the temperature-driven seasonality of Ixodes ricinus ticks and transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato across mainland Scotland. Based on 12-year averaged temperature surfaces, our model predicted that Lyme disease risk currently peaks in autumn, approximately six weeks after the temperature peak. The risk was predicted to decrease with increasing altitude. Increases in temperature were predicted to prolong the duration of the tick questing season and expand the risk area to higher altitudinal and latitudinal regions. These predicted impacts on tick population ecology may be expected to lead to greater tick-host contacts under climate warming and, hence, greater risks of pathogen transmission. The model is useful in improving understanding of the spatial determinants and system mechanisms of Lyme disease pathogen transmission and its sensitivity to temperature changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sen Li
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
| | - Lucy Gilbert
- The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, UK
| | - Paula A Harrison
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Library Avenue, Lancaster LA1 4AP, UK
| | - Mark D A Rounsevell
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, UK
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11
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Prestele R, Alexander P, Rounsevell MDA, Arneth A, Calvin K, Doelman J, Eitelberg DA, Engström K, Fujimori S, Hasegawa T, Havlik P, Humpenöder F, Jain AK, Krisztin T, Kyle P, Meiyappan P, Popp A, Sands RD, Schaldach R, Schüngel J, Stehfest E, Tabeau A, Van Meijl H, Van Vliet J, Verburg PH. Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison. Glob Chang Biol 2016; 22:3967-3983. [PMID: 27135635 PMCID: PMC5111780 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13337] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2016] [Accepted: 04/11/2016] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Reinhard Prestele
- Environmental Geography GroupDepartment of Earth SciencesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamDe Boelelaan 10871081 HVAmsterdamThe Netherlands
| | - Peter Alexander
- School of GeoSciencesUniversity of EdinburghDrummond StreetEdinburghEH89XPUK
| | | | - Almut Arneth
- Department Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK‐IFU)Karlsruhe Institute of TechnologyKreuzeckbahnstr. 1982467Garmisch‐PartenkirchenGermany
| | - Katherine Calvin
- Joint Global Change Research InstitutePacific Northwest National LaboratoryCollege ParkMD20740USA
| | - Jonathan Doelman
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyP.O. Box 3033720AH BilthovenThe Netherlands
| | - David A. Eitelberg
- Environmental Geography GroupDepartment of Earth SciencesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamDe Boelelaan 10871081 HVAmsterdamThe Netherlands
| | - Kerstin Engström
- Department of Geography and Ecosystem ScienceLund UniversitySölvegatan 12LundSweden
| | - Shinichiro Fujimori
- Center for Social and Environmental Systems ResearchNational Institute for Environmental Studies16‐2 OnogawaTsukubaIbaraki305‐8506Japan
| | - Tomoko Hasegawa
- Center for Social and Environmental Systems ResearchNational Institute for Environmental Studies16‐2 OnogawaTsukubaIbaraki305‐8506Japan
| | - Petr Havlik
- Ecosystem Services and Management ProgramInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisA‐2361LaxenburgAustria
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)P.O. Box 60 12 0314412PotsdamGermany
| | - Atul K. Jain
- Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of IllinoisUrbanaIL61801USA
| | - Tamás Krisztin
- Ecosystem Services and Management ProgramInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisA‐2361LaxenburgAustria
| | - Page Kyle
- Joint Global Change Research InstitutePacific Northwest National LaboratoryCollege ParkMD20740USA
| | - Prasanth Meiyappan
- Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of IllinoisUrbanaIL61801USA
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)P.O. Box 60 12 0314412PotsdamGermany
| | - Ronald D. Sands
- Resource and Rural Economics DivisionEconomic Research ServiceUS Department of AgricultureWashingtonDC20250USA
| | - Rüdiger Schaldach
- Center for Environmental Systems ResearchUniversity of KasselWilhelmshöher Allee 47D‐34109KasselGermany
| | - Jan Schüngel
- Center for Environmental Systems ResearchUniversity of KasselWilhelmshöher Allee 47D‐34109KasselGermany
| | - Elke Stehfest
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyP.O. Box 3033720AH BilthovenThe Netherlands
| | - Andrzej Tabeau
- LEIWageningen University and Research CentreP.O. Box 297032502LS The HagueThe Netherlands
| | - Hans Van Meijl
- LEIWageningen University and Research CentreP.O. Box 297032502LS The HagueThe Netherlands
| | - Jasper Van Vliet
- Environmental Geography GroupDepartment of Earth SciencesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamDe Boelelaan 10871081 HVAmsterdamThe Netherlands
| | - Peter H. Verburg
- Environmental Geography GroupDepartment of Earth SciencesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamDe Boelelaan 10871081 HVAmsterdamThe Netherlands
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSLZürcherstrasse 111CH‐8903BirmensdorfSwitzerland
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12
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Yang AL, Rounsevell MDA, Wilson RM, Haggett C. Spatial analysis of agri-environmental policy uptake and expenditure in Scotland. J Environ Manage 2014; 133:104-115. [PMID: 24374463 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.11.038] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2013] [Revised: 07/31/2013] [Accepted: 11/26/2013] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
Agri-environment is one of the most widely supported rural development policy measures in Scotland in terms of number of participants and expenditure. It comprises 69 management options and sub-options that are delivered primarily through the competitive 'Rural Priorities scheme'. Understanding the spatial determinants of uptake and expenditure would assist policy-makers in guiding future policy targeting efforts for the rural environment. This study is unique in examining the spatial dependency and determinants of Scotland's agri-environmental measures and categorised options uptake and payments at the parish level. Spatial econometrics is applied to test the influence of 40 explanatory variables on farming characteristics, land capability, designated sites, accessibility and population. Results identified spatial dependency for each of the dependent variables, which supported the use of spatially-explicit models. The goodness of fit of the spatial models was better than for the aspatial regression models. There was also notable improvement in the models for participation compared with the models for expenditure. Furthermore a range of expected explanatory variables were found to be significant and varied according to the dependent variable used. The majority of models for both payment and uptake showed a significant positive relationship with SSSI (Sites of Special Scientific Interest), which are designated sites prioritised in Scottish policy. These results indicate that environmental targeting efforts by the government for AEP uptake in designated sites can be effective. However habitats outside of SSSI, termed here the 'wider countryside' may not be sufficiently competitive to receive funding in the current policy system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anastasia L Yang
- Center for International Forestry Research, Jalan CIFOR, Situ Gede, Bogor Barat 16115, Indonesia; Research Institute of Geography and the Lived Environment, University of Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK; EU SPARD, FP7 Spatial Analysis of Rural Development Measures, UK.
| | - Mark D A Rounsevell
- Research Institute of Geography and the Lived Environment, University of Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK; EU SPARD, FP7 Spatial Analysis of Rural Development Measures, UK
| | - Ronald M Wilson
- Research Institute of Geography and the Lived Environment, University of Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
| | - Claire Haggett
- Sociology, School of Social and Political Science, University of Edinburgh, UK
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A. Acosta L, D. A. Rounsevell M, Bakker M, Van Doorn A, Gómez-Delgado M, Delgado M. An Agent-Based Assessment of Land Use and Ecosystem Changes in Traditional Agricultural Landscape of Portugal. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2014. [DOI: 10.4236/iim.2014.62008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
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Abstract
Biomass produced from energy crops, such as Miscanthus and short rotation coppice is expected to contribute to renewable energy targets, but the slower than anticipated development of the UK market implies the need for greater understanding of the factors that govern adoption. Here, we apply an agent-based model of the UK perennial energy crop market, including the contingent interaction of supply and demand, to understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of energy crop adoption. Results indicate that perennial energy crop supply will be between six and nine times lower than previously published, because of time lags in adoption arising from a spatial diffusion process. The model simulates time lags of at least 20 years, which is supported empirically by the analogue of oilseed rape adoption in the UK from the 1970s. This implies the need to account for time lags arising from spatial diffusion in evaluating land-use change, climate change (mitigation or adaptation) or the adoption of novel technologies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Alexander
- Land Economy and Environment Research Group, SRUC, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, UK.
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15
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Guillem EE, Barnes AP, Rounsevell MDA, Renwick A. Refining perception-based farmer typologies with the analysis of past census data. J Environ Manage 2012; 110:226-235. [PMID: 22805711 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.06.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2011] [Revised: 06/10/2012] [Accepted: 06/17/2012] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Perception-based typologies have been used to explore the decision making process of farmers and to inform policy design. These typologies have been criticised, however, for not fully capturing true farmer behaviour, and are consequently limited for supporting policy formulation. We present a method that develops a typology, using a social survey approach based on how farmers perceive their environment (e.g. birds and agri-environmental schemes). We then apply time-series census data on past farm strategies (i.e. land use allocation, management style and participation into agri-environmental schemes) to refine these typologies. Consequently, this offers an approach to improving the profiling of farmer types, and strengthens the validity of input into future agricultural policies. While the social survey highlights a certain degree of awareness towards birds with respect to farmer types, the analysis of past farm strategies indicated that farmers did not entirely follow their stated objectives. External factors such as input and output price signals and subsidy levels had a stronger influence on their strategies rather than stated environmental and social issues. Consequently, the refining of farmer types using this approach would aid the design of policy instruments, which integrate ecological issues within planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- E E Guillem
- Land Economy and Environment Research Group, Scottish Agricultural College (SAC), King Buildings, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3JG, UK.
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16
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Abstract
The ecosystem service concept has emphasized the role of people within socio-ecological systems (SESs). In this paper, we review and discuss alternative ways of representing people, their behaviour and decision-making processes in SES models using an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach. We also explore how ABM can be empirically grounded using information from social survey. The capacity for ABM to be generalized beyond case studies represents a crucial next step in modelling SESs, although this comes with considerable intellectual challenges. We propose the notion of human functional types, as an analogy of plant functional types, to support the expansion (scaling) of ABM to larger areas. The expansion of scope also implies the need to represent institutional agents in SES models in order to account for alternative governance structures and policy feedbacks. Further development in the coupling of human-environment systems would contribute considerably to better application and use of the ecosystem service concept.
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Affiliation(s)
- M D A Rounsevell
- School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, UK.
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Affiliation(s)
- James S Paterson
- Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX13QY, United Kingdom.
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18
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Leterme B, Vanclooster M, Van der Linden T, Tiktak A, Rounsevell MDA. Including spatial variability in Monte Carlo simulations of pesticide leaching. Environ Sci Technol 2007; 41:7444-7450. [PMID: 18044524 DOI: 10.1021/es0714639] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
A methodology is developed to quantify the uncertainty in a pesticide leaching assessment arising from the spatial variability of non-georeferenced parameters. A Monte Carlo analysis of atrazine leaching is performed in the Dyle river catchment (Belgium) with pesticide half-life (DT50) and topsoil organic matter (OM) content as uncertain input parameters. Atrazine DT50 is taken as a non-georeferenced parameter, so that DT50 values sampled from the input distribution are randomly allocated in the study area for every simulation. Organic matter content is a georeferenced parameter, so that a fixed uncertainty distribution is given at each location. Spatially variable DT50 values are found to have a significant influence on the amount of simulated leaching. In the stochastic simulation, concentrations exist above the regulatory level of 0.1 microg L(-1), but virtually no leaching occurs in the deterministic simulation. It is axiomatic that substance parameters (DT50, sorption coefficient, etc.) are spatially variable, but pesticide registration procedures currently ignore this fact. Including this spatial variability in future registration policies would have significant consequences on the amount and pattern of leaching simulated, especially if risk assessments are implemented in a spatially distributed way.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bertrand Leterme
- Department of Geography, Université Catholique de Louvain, Place Louis Pasteur 3, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
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20
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21
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Leterme B, Vanclooster M, Rounsevell MDA, Bogaert P. Discriminating between point and non-point sources of atrazine contamination of a sandy aquifer. Sci Total Environ 2006; 362:124-42. [PMID: 16055171 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2005.06.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2005] [Accepted: 06/16/2005] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
This study analyses the sources of atrazine contamination in the Brusselian sandy aquifer of central Belgium. Atrazine has in the past been used for both agricultural and non-agricultural applications, but it is difficult to distinguish the contamination originating from these two sources. The spatial and temporal covariance of atrazine concentrations was studied by fitting semi-variogram models to monitoring data. Correlation ranges were found to be 600 m and 600-700 days, respectively. The results were used to apply a declustering algorithm before examining the distribution of atrazine concentrations measured in groundwater. Monitoring data appeared to follow a pseudo-lognormal distribution, as a lognormality test was negative. An inflexion point on the cumulative density function was thought to indicate the two different pollution processes, i.e., agricultural and non-agricultural contamination sources. A non-parametric one-way analysis of variance suggested that the vast majority of atrazine in groundwater was from non-agricultural, point sources. This was supported by the strong relationship between mean concentrations and land use, whilst other environmental variables, such as soil organic matter or groundwater depth, produced less meaningful results.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bertrand Leterme
- Department of Geography, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.
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22
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Smith JO, Smith P, Wattenbach M, Zaehle S, Hiederer R, Jones RJA, Montanarella L, Rounsevell MDA, Reginster I, Ewert F. Projected changes in mineral soil carbon of European croplands and grasslands, 1990-2080. Glob Chang Biol 2005; 11:2141-2152. [PMID: 34991279 DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.001075.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 76] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
We present the most comprehensive pan-European assessment of future changes in cropland and grassland soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks to date, using a dedicated process-based SOC model and state-of-the-art databases of soil, climate change, land-use change and technology change. Soil carbon change was calculated using the Rothamsted carbon model on a European 10 × 10' grid using climate data from four global climate models implementing four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios (SRES). Changes in net primary production (NPP) were calculated by the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model. Land-use change scenarios, interpreted from the narratives of the IPCC SRES story lines, were used to project changes in cropland and grassland areas. Projections for 1990-2080 are presented for mineral soil only. Climate effects (soil temperature and moisture) will tend to speed decomposition and cause soil carbon stocks to decrease, whereas increases in carbon input because of increasing NPP will slow the loss. Technological improvement may further increase carbon inputs to the soil. Changes in cropland and grassland areas will further affect the total soil carbon stock of European croplands and grasslands. While climate change will be a key driver of change in soil carbon over the 21st Century, changes in technology and land-use change are estimated to have very significant effects. When incorporating all factors, cropland and grassland soils show a small increase in soil carbon on a per area basis under future climate (1-7 t C ha-1 for cropland and 3-6 t C ha-1 for grassland), but when the greatly decreasing area of cropland and grassland are accounted for, total European cropland stocks decline in all scenarios, and grassland stocks decline in all but one scenario. Different trends are seen in different regions. For Europe (the EU25 plus Norway and Switzerland), the cropland SOC stock decreases from 11 Pg in 1990 by 4-6 Pg (39-54%) by 2080, and the grassland SOC stock increases from 6 Pg in 1990 to 1.5 Pg (25%) under the B1 scenario, but decreases to 1-3 Pg (20-44%) under the other scenarios. Uncertainty associated with the land-use and technology scenarios remains unquantified, but worst-case quantified uncertainties are 22.5% for croplands and 16% for grasslands, equivalent to potential errors of 2.5 and 1 Pg SOC, respectively. This is equivalent to 42-63% of the predicted SOC stock change for croplands and 33-100% of the predicted SOC stock change for grasslands. Implications for accounting for SOC changes under the Kyoto Protocol are discussed.
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Affiliation(s)
- J O Smith
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Cruickshank Building, St. Machar Drive, Aberdeen AB24 3UU, UK
| | - Pete Smith
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Cruickshank Building, St. Machar Drive, Aberdeen AB24 3UU, UK
| | - Martin Wattenbach
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Cruickshank Building, St. Machar Drive, Aberdeen AB24 3UU, UK
| | - Sönke Zaehle
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, PO Box 601203 D-14412 Potsdam Germany
| | - Roland Hiederer
- Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, TP 262/280 Ispra (VA), I-21020, Italy
| | - Robert J A Jones
- Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, TP 262/280 Ispra (VA), I-21020, Italy
| | - Luca Montanarella
- Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, TP 262/280 Ispra (VA), I-21020, Italy
| | - Mark D A Rounsevell
- Department of Geography, Université Catholique de Louvain, Place Pasteur, 3 B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
| | - Isabelle Reginster
- Department of Geography, Université Catholique de Louvain, Place Pasteur, 3 B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
| | - Frank Ewert
- Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University, PO Box 430, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands
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Cocu N, Conrad K, Harrington R, Rounsevell MDA. Analysis of spatial patterns at a geographical scale over north-western Europe from point-referenced aphid count data. Bull Entomol Res 2005; 95:47-56. [PMID: 15705214 DOI: 10.1079/ber2004338] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
The spatial analysis by distance indices (SADIE) technique was developed to evaluate the spatial pattern of point-referenced count data as well as the spatial association between two sets of data sharing the same point locations. This paper presents an analysis of spatial patterns in aphid count data and the association of these data with climate across north-west Europe. The paper tests the applicability of the technique to large geographical areas. Aggregation and cluster indices were calculated for the total annual abundance of the peach-potato aphid Myzus persicae (Sulzer) and for the annual mean rainfall and temperature at aphid monitoring sites. Association indices demonstrated the stability in time of aphid spatial structures and the correlation between aphid density and climate patterns. Groups of relatively large numbers of aphids, termed patches, and groups of relatively small numbers of aphids, termed gaps, were located and their mean size estimated. The aphid patterns were quite stable in time and the spatial patterns of temperature and rainfall were weakly associated with M. persicae annual abundance. Similarities were observed between the results of SADIE and those from the more widely used technique of spatial autocorrelation (SAC). However, the SADIE association index has the advantage of quantifying the possible associations between aphid data and the factors that determine population distribution. Thus, high temperature and low rainfall were identified as environmental factors that were positively associated with aphid abundance across north-west Europe.
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Affiliation(s)
- N Cocu
- Département de Géographie, Université Catholique de Louvain, Place Louis Pasteur 3, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
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