Effects of the transmissibility and virulence of pathogens on intraguild predation in fragmented landscapes

Concurrent dilution and amplification effects in an intraguild predation eco-epidemiological model

The dilution and amplification effects are important concepts in the field of zoonotic diseases. While the dilution effect predicts that pathogen prevalence is negatively correlated with increased species diversity, the opposite trend is observed when the amplification effect occurs. Understanding how interspecific interactions such as predation and competition within a community influence disease transmission is highly relevant. We explore the conditions under which the dilution and amplification effects arise, using compartmental models that integrate ecological and epidemiological interactions. We formulate an intraguild predation model where each species is divided into two compartments: susceptible and infected individuals. We obtained that increasing predation increases the disease transmission potential of the predator and the density of infected individuals, but decreases the disease transmission potential of the prey, as well as their density. Also, we found that interspecific competition always helps to decrease the number of infected individuals in the population of the two species. Therefore, dilution and amplification effects can be observed simultaneously but depending on different types of cological interactions.

How intraguild predation affects the host diversity-disease relationship in a multihost community

Broad evidence has shown that host diversity can impede disease invasion and reduce the eventual prevalence, but little is known on how species interactions play in shaping this host diversity-disease relationship. Previous work has illustrated that intraguild predation (IGP), combined with parasite-mediated indirect effects, can have strong influences on parasitic infection. Following this line of thinking, we here examine the role of predatory interactions in the disease transmission within a multihost community. Through varying fractions of IGP in a competitive community, we show that, dependent on the fraction of predatory interactions, species richness can switch from enhancing to inhibiting disease establishment/prevalence. Without IGP interactions, high host species richness can likely weaken the 'dilution effect' and in some cases even enhance the disease establishment (and/or prevalence) due to the existence of alternative sources for infection, whereas IGP can generally heighten the negative diversity-disease relationship due to the reduction of encounter rate between prospective hosts and parasites. Although trait-mediated interactions (captured as the infection-induced changes in predation rate) only weakly affect disease prevalence, density-mediated interactions (captured as the additional infection-induced mortality) can pose a relatively strong influence on disease transmission. Our results thus underline the importance of considering species interactions when investigating the host diversity-disease relationship.

Biological control of a predator–prey system through provision of an infected predator

Epidemic transmission has a substantial effect on the dynamics and stability of the predator–prey system, in which the transmission rate plays an important role. The probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) approach is used to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of a predator–prey system with the infected predator. Remarkably, it is impossible to achieve a coexistence state of prey, susceptible predators, and infected predators in a spatial population. This is different from the analysis from a non-spatial population with the mean-field approximation, where Hopf bifurcation arises and the interior equilibrium becomes unstable, and a periodic solution appears with the increasing infection rate. The results show that the introduction of the infected predator with a high transmission rate is beneficial for the persistence of the prey population in space. However, a low transmission rate will promote the coexistence state of the prey and the susceptible predator populations. In summary, it is possible to develop management strategies to manipulate the transmission rate of the infected predator for the benefit of biological control.

Pattern transitions in spatial epidemics: Mechanisms and emergent properties

Infectious diseases are a threat to human health and a hindrance to societal development. Consequently, the spread of diseases in both time and space has been widely studied, revealing the different types of spatial patterns. Transitions between patterns are an emergent property in spatial epidemics that can serve as a potential trend indicator of disease spread. Despite the usefulness of such an indicator, attempts to systematize the topic of pattern transitions have been few and far between. We present a mini-review on pattern transitions in spatial epidemics, describing the types of transitions and their underlying mechanisms. We show that pattern transitions relate to the complexity of spatial epidemics by, for example, being accompanied with phenomena such as coherence resonance and cyclic evolution. The results presented herein provide valuable insights into disease prevention and control, and may even be applicable outside epidemiology, including other branches of medical science, ecology, quantitative finance, and elsewhere.