Influenza in Yucatan in 2018: Chronology, characteristics and outcomes of ambulatory and hospitalized patients

Distinguishing viruses responsible for influenza-like illness

The many respiratory viruses that cause influenza-like illness (ILI) are reported and tracked as one entity, defined by the CDC as a group of symptoms that include a fever of 100 degrees Fahrenheit, a cough, and/or a sore throat. In the United States alone, ILI impacts 9-49 million people every year. While tracking ILI as a single clinical syndrome is informative in many respects, the underlying viruses differ in parameters and outbreak properties. Most existing models treat either a single respiratory virus or ILI as a whole. However, there is a need for models capable of comparing several individual viruses that cause respiratory illness, including ILI. To address this need, here we present a flexible model and simulations of epidemics for influenza, RSV, rhinovirus, seasonal coronavirus, adenovirus, and SARS/MERS, parameterized by a systematic literature review and accompanied by a global sensitivity analysis. We find that for these biological causes of ILI, their parameter values, timing, prevalence, and proportional contributions differ substantially. These results demonstrate that distinguishing the viruses that cause ILI will be an important aspect of future work on diagnostics, mitigation, modeling, and preparation for future pandemics.

Demographic and Health Indicators in Correlation to Interstate Variability of Incidence, Confirmation, Hospitalization, and Lethality in Mexico: Preliminary Analysis from Imported and Community Acquired Cases during COVID-19 Outbreak

This study’s objective is to analyze the incidence, lethality, hospitalization, and confirmation of COVID-19 cases in Mexico. Sentinel surveillance for COVID-19 cases in Mexico began after the confirmation of the first patient with community transmission. Methods: This epidemiologic, cross-sectional study includes all clinically suspected, and laboratory-confirmed cases nationwide from the beginning of the outbreak to 21 April 2020. State-cluster demographic data and health indicators were analyzed in reference to epidemiologic measures, with logistic regressions for the dependent variables of incidence, confirmation, and lethality. Results: The national incidence was 13.89/100,000 inhabitants with a 6.52% overall lethality and a confirmed-case mortality of 11.1%. The incidence variation significantly correlated with migration, but not urbanization. Pediatric patients were less prone to be tested (OR = −3.92), while geriatric individuals were a priority. State lethality positively correlated with the proportion of the population assisted at public hospitals and correlated inversely to the number of hospitals and clinics in the state. Conclusions: Migration strongly correlated with incidence; elderly patients had lower odds of being hospitalized but were likely to die. Patients aged <15 were less prone to be laboratory-confirmed. Case confirmation was not performed in all hospitalized patients, but 72.15% of hospitalized patients had favorable outcomes to date.

Demographic, clinical, and virological characteristics of patients with a laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of influenza during three consecutive seasons, 2015/2016-2017/18, in the Islamic Republic of Iran

BACKGROUND

There are minimal data on the differences in demographics, clinical presentations and outcomes for patients with different types and sub-types of influenza in the Middle East.

OBJECTIVES

To use population-based data from Iran to investigate factors associated with unfavorable disease outcome.

STUDY DESIGN

Clinical data were compiled from the Iranian Ministry of Health for patients of all ages who fulfilled the severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) definition according to World Health Organization criteriatested for any reason and found to have and had laboratory proven influenza September 21, 2015 through March 20, 2018. Pulmonary, cardiac, renal, hematologic and neurologic complications were recorded. Results were compared by type, age, gender and health status. Multivariate analysis was used to analyze risk factors for complications and death.

RESULTS

Of 11,080 enrolled patients, 10,046 (90.7 %) were inpatients, 2254 (20.4 %) were children, 8403 (75.8 %) had influenza A, 2599 (23.5 %) had influenza B, and 78 (0.7 %) had unidentified types. Fever was less common in older patients (OR 0.99; 95 % CI 0.98-0.99, p < 0.001 and in those with comorbidity (OR 0.87; 95 % CI 0.77-0.97, p = 0.013). Although the rate of complications was lower with A(H1N1) pdm09 influenza than with A(H3N2) infection (12.8 % versus 15.6 %, p = 0.001), the mortality rate was higher (7.0 % versus 3.0 %, p < 0.001). Complications occurred more often during late versus early influenza season (OR 1.22; 95 % CI 1.08-1.37, p = 0.002). Patients with type B influenza (OR 0.85; 95 % CI 0.74-0.98, p = 0.025), or who presented with sore throat (OR 0.74; 95 % CI 0.65-0.84, p < 0.001) were less likely to develop complications. The risk of developing complications was increased in patients who had chronic heart disease (OR 1.51; 95 % CI 1.29-1.76, p < 0.001), chronic pulmonary disease (OR 1.62; 95 % CI 1.37-1.91, p < 0.001), diabetes (OR 1.24; 95 % CI 1.03-1.50, p = 022), or epilepsy (OR 1.55; 95 % CI 1.17-2.05). Older age and male gender increased the risk of death but not of complications.

CONCLUSIONS

The clinical features, complications and outcomes of influenza vary by age and by viral type and sub-type. Comorbidites appear to be more important than age in predicting complications.