Identifying vaccine escape sites via statistical comparisons of short-term molecular dynamics

Persistent cross-species SARS-CoV-2 variant infectivity predicted via comparative molecular dynamics simulation

Widespread human transmission of SARS-CoV-2 highlights the substantial public health, economic and societal consequences of virus spillover from wildlife and also presents a repeated risk of reverse spillovers back to naive wildlife populations. We employ comparative statistical analyses of a large set of short-term molecular dynamic (MD) simulations to investigate the potential human-to-bat (genus Rhinolophus) cross-species infectivity allowed by the binding of SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD) to angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) across the bat progenitor strain and emerging human strain variants of concern (VOC). We statistically compare the dampening of atom motion across protein sites upon the formation of the RBD/ACE2 binding interface using various bat versus human target receptors (i.e. bACE2 and hACE2). We report that while the bat progenitor viral strain RaTG13 shows some pre-adaption binding to hACE2, it also exhibits stronger affinity to bACE2. While early emergent human strains and later VOCs exhibit robust binding to both hACE2 and bACE2, the delta and omicron variants exhibit evolutionary adaption of binding to hACE2. However, we conclude there is a still significant risk of mammalian cross-species infectivity of human VOCs during upcoming waves of infection as COVID-19 transitions from a pandemic to endemic status.