Bias in breast cancer research in the screening era

Identification of modules and key genes associated with breast cancer subtypes through network analysis

Breast cancer is the most common malignancy in women around the world. Intratumor and intertumoral heterogeneity persist in mammary tumors. Therefore, the identification of biomarkers is essential for the treatment of this malignancy. This study analyzed 28,143 genes expressed in 49 breast cancer cell lines using a Weighted Gene Co-expression Network Analysis to determine specific target proteins for Basal A, Basal B, Luminal A, Luminal B, and HER2 ampl breast cancer subtypes. Sixty-five modules were identified, of which five were characterized as having a high correlation with breast cancer subtypes. Genes overexpressed in the tumor were found to participate in the following mechanisms: regulation of the apoptotic process, transcriptional regulation, angiogenesis, signaling, and cellular survival. In particular, we identified the following genes, considered as hubs: IFIT3, an inhibitor of viral and cellular processes; ETS1, a transcription factor involved in cell death and tumorigenesis; ENSG00000259723 lncRNA, expressed in cancers; AL033519.3, a hypothetical gene; and TMEM86A, important for regulating keratinocyte membrane properties, considered as a key in Basal A, Basal B, Luminal A, Luminal B, and HER2 ampl breast cancer subtypes, respectively. The modules and genes identified in this work can be used to identify possible biomarkers or therapeutic targets in different breast cancer subtypes.

Breast cancer patients enrolled in the Swiss mammography screening program "donna" demonstrate prolonged survival

STUDY GOAL

We compared the survival rates of women with breast cancer (BC) detected within versus outside the mammography screening program (MSP) "donna".

METHODS

We merged data from the MSP with the data from corresponding cancer registries to categorize BC cases as within MSP (screen-detected and interval carcinomas) and outside the MSP. We analyzed the tumor stage distribution, tumor characteristics and the survival of the women. We further estimated hazard ratios using Cox-regressions to account for different characteristics between groups and corrected the survival rates for lead-time bias.

RESULTS

We identified 1057 invasive (ICD-10: C50) and in-situ (D05) BC cases within the MSP and 1501 outside the MSP between 2010 and 2019 in the Swiss cantons of St. Gallen and Grisons. BC within the MSP had a higher share of stage I carcinoma (46.5% vs. 33.0%; p < 0.01), a smaller (mean) tumor size (19.1 mm vs. 24.9 mm, p < 0.01), and fewer recurrences and metastases in the follow-up period (6.7% vs. 15.6%, p < 0.01). The 10-year survival rates were 91.4% for women within and 72.1% for women outside the MSP (p < 0.05). Survival difference persisted but decreased when women within the same tumor stage were compared. Lead-time corrected hazard ratios for the MSP accounted for age, tumor size and Ki-67 proliferation index were 0.550 (95% CI 0.389, 0.778; p < 0.01) for overall survival and 0.469 (95% CI 0.294, 0.749; p < 0.01) for BC related survival.

CONCLUSION

Women participating in the "donna" MSP had a significantly higher overall and BC related survival rate than women outside the program. Detection of BC at an earlier tumor stage only partially explains the observed differences.

Evaluating cancer screening programs using survival analysis

The main purpose of cancer screening programs is to provide early treatment to patients that are diagnosed with cancer on a screening test, thus increasing their chances of survival. To test this hypothesis directly, one should compare the survival of screen-detected cases to the survival of their counterparts not included to the program. In this study, we develop a general notation and use it to formally define the comparison of interest. We explain why the naive comparison between screen-detected and interval cases is biased and show that the total bias that arises in this case can be decomposed as a sum of lead time bias, length time bias, and bias due to overdetection. With respect to the estimation, we show what can be estimated using existing methods. To fill in the missing gap, we develop a new nonparametric estimator that allows us to estimate the survival of the control group, that is, the survival of cancer cases that would be screen-detected among those not included to the program. By joining the proposed estimator with existing methods, we show that the contrast of interest can be estimated without neglecting any of the biases. Our approach is illustrated using simulations and empirical data.

German mammography screening program: adherence, characteristics of (non-)participants and utilization of non-screening mammography-a longitudinal analysis

BACKGROUND

In Germany, all women aged 50-69 have been invited to biennial mammography screening since 2009. We aimed to assess longitudinal adherence over ten years in women aged 50 in 2009 and characterize the different adherence groups.

METHODS

Using the German Pharmacoepidemiological Research Database (GePaRD, ~ 20% of the German population), we included women aged 50 in 2009 (baseline) with continuous health insurance coverage and without breast cancer or in-situ-carcinoma. We followed them until age 59 and categorized them according to mammography screening participation into the following groups: never, 1-2, 3-4, 5-6 times. We characterized these groups, inter alia, regarding the use of other preventive measures, non-screening mammography (i.e., mammography outside the organized screening program) and menopausal hormone therapy.

RESULTS

Overall, 82,666 women were included. Of these, 27.6% never participated in the screening program, 15.1% participated 1-2 times, 31.7% participated 3-4 times and 25.6% participated regularly (5-6 times). Among regular participants, 91% utilized other preventive measures (e.g., cervical cancer screening, general health checkup) before baseline as compared to 66% among non-participants. Menopausal hormone therapy was least common among non-participants (11% vs. 18% among regular participants). Among non-participants, the proportions using ≥ 1, ≥ 2, and ≥ 3 non-screening mammographies between age 50-59 were 25%, 18%, and 15%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a large cohort based on claims data, this study provides novel insights into longitudinal adherence to the mammography screening program and the use of mammography outside of the program in Germany. Between age 50-59, 57% of eligible women participated at least three times in the German mammography screening program and 28% (~ 3 in 10 women) never participated. Among non-participants, 15% had at least three non-screening mammographies during this period, indicating potential gray screening. Participants more often utilized other preventive measures as compared to non-participants.

Tumour Growth Models of Breast Cancer for Evaluating Early Detection-A Summary and a Simulation Study

With the advent of nationwide mammography screening programmes, a number of natural history models of breast cancers have been developed and used to assess the effects of screening. The first half of this article provides an overview of a class of these models and describes how they can be used to study latent processes of tumour progression from observational data. The second half of the article describes a simulation study which applies a continuous growth model to illustrate how effects of extending the maximum age of the current Swedish screening programme from 74 to 80 can be evaluated. Compared to no screening, the current and extended programmes reduced breast cancer mortality by 18.5% and 21.7%, respectively. The proportion of screen-detected invasive cancers which were overdiagnosed was estimated to be 1.9% in the current programme and 2.9% in the extended programme. With the help of these breast cancer natural history models, we can better understand the latent processes, and better study the effects of breast cancer screening.

Identification of a naturally-occurring canine model for early detection and intervention research in high grade urothelial carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Early detection and intervention research is expected to improve the outcomes for patients with high grade muscle invasive urothelial carcinoma (InvUC). With limited patients in suitable high-risk study cohorts, relevant animal model research is critical. Experimental animal models often fail to adequately represent human cancer. The purpose of this study was to determine the suitability of dogs with high breed-associated risk for naturally-occurring InvUC to serve as relevant models for early detection and intervention research. The feasibility of screening and early intervention, and similarities and differences between canine and human tumors, and early and later canine tumors were determined.

METHODS

STs (n=120) ≥ 6 years old with no outward evidence of urinary disease were screened at 6-month intervals for 3 years with physical exam, ultrasonography, and urinalysis with sediment exam. Cystoscopic biopsy was performed in dogs with positive screening tests. The pathological, clinical, and molecular characteristics of the "early" cancer detected by screening were determined. Transcriptomic signatures were compared between the early tumors and published findings in human InvUC, and to more advanced "later" canine tumors from STs who had the typical presentation of hematuria and urinary dysfunction. An early intervention trial of an oral cyclooxygenase inhibitor, deracoxib, was conducted in dogs with cancer detected through screening.

RESULTS

Biopsy-confirmed bladder cancer was detected in 32 (27%) of 120 STs including InvUC (n=29, three starting as dysplasia), grade 1 noninvasive cancer (n=2), and carcinoma in situ (n=1). Transcriptomic signatures including druggable targets such as EGFR and the PI3K-AKT-mTOR pathway, were very similar between canine and human InvUC, especially within luminal and basal molecular subtypes. Marked transcriptomic differences were noted between early and later canine tumors, particularly within luminal subtype tumors. The deracoxib remission rate (42% CR+PR) compared very favorably to that with single-agent cyclooxygenase inhibitors in more advanced canine InvUC (17-25%), supporting the value of early intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

The study defined a novel naturally-occurring animal model to complement experimental models for early detection and intervention research in InvUC. Research incorporating the canine model is expected to lead to improved outcomes for humans, as well as pet dogs, facing bladder cancer.

Mammography screening is associated with more favourable breast cancer tumour characteristics and better overall survival: case-only analysis of 3739 Asian breast cancer patients

BACKGROUND

Early detection of breast cancer (BC) through mammography screening (MAM) is known to reduce mortality. We examined the differential effect that mammography has on BC characteristics and overall survival and the sociodemographic determinants of MAM utilization in a multi-ethnic Asian population.

METHODS

This study included 3739 BC patients from the Singapore Breast Cancer Cohort (2010-2018). Self-reported sociodemographic characteristics were collected using a structured questionnaire. Clinical data were obtained through medical records. Patients were classified as screeners (last screening mammogram ≤ 2 years before diagnosis), non-screeners (aware but did not attend or last screen > 2years), and those unaware of MAM. Associations between MAM behaviour (MB) and sociodemographic factors and MB and tumour characteristics were examined using multinomial regression. Ten-year overall survival was modelled using Cox regression.

RESULTS

Patients unaware of screening were more likely diagnosed with late stage (OR_{stage III vs stage I (Ref)} [95% CI]: 4.94 [3.45-7.07], p < 0.001), high grade (OR_{poorly vs well-differentiated (reference)}: 1.53 [1.06-2.20], p = 0.022), nodal-positive, large size (OR_{>5cm vs ≤2cm (reference)}: 5.06 [3.10-8.25], p < 0.001), and HER2-positive tumours (OR_{HER2-negative vs HER2-positive (reference)}: 0.72 [0.53-0.97], p = 0.028). Similar trends were observed between screeners and non-screeners with smaller effect sizes. Overall survival was significantly shorter than screeners in the both groups (HR_{non-screeners}: 1.89 [1.22-2.94], p = 0.005; HR_unaware: 2.90 [1.69-4.98], p < 0.001). Non-screeners and those unaware were less health conscious, older, of Malay ethnicity, less highly educated, of lower socioeconomic status, more frequently ever smokers, and less physically active. Among screeners, there were more reported personal histories of benign breast surgeries or gynaecological conditions and positive family history of breast cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Mammography attendance is associated with more favourable BC characteristics and overall survival. Disparities in the utility of MAM services suggest that different strategies may be needed to improve MAM uptake.

The Benefits of Early Detection: Evidence From Modern International Mammography Service Screening Programs

Research from randomized controlled trials initiated up to 60 years ago consistently confirms that regular screening with mammography significantly reduces breast cancer mortality. Despite this success, there is ongoing debate regarding the efficacy of screening, which is confounded by technologic advances and concerns about cost, overdiagnosis, overtreatment, and equitable care of diverse patient populations. More recent screening research, designed to quell the debates, derives data from variable study designs, each with unique strengths and weaknesses. This article reviews observational population-based screening research that has followed the early initial long-term randomized controlled trials that are no longer practical or ethical to perform. The advantages and disadvantages of observational data and study design are outlined, including the three subtypes of population-based observational studies: cohort/case-control, trend, and incidence-based mortality/staging. The most recent research, typically performed in countries that administer screening mammography to women through centralized health service programs and directly track patient-specific outcomes and detection data, is summarized. These data are essential to understand and inform construction of effective new databases that facilitate continuous assessment of optimal screening techniques in the current era of rapidly developing medical technology, combined with a focus on health care that is both personal and equitable.

Differences in breast cancer diagnosis by patient presentation in Ontario: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

In Ontario, patients with breast cancer typically receive their diagnoses through the Ontario Breast Screening Program (OBSP) after an abnormal screen, through screening initiated by a primary care provider or other referring physician, or through follow-up of symptoms by patients' primary care providers. We sought to explore the association of the route to diagnosis (screening within or outside the OBSP or via symptomatic presentation) with use of OBSP-affiliated breast assessment sites (O-BAS), wait times until diagnosis or treatment, health care use and overall survival for patients with breast cancer.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we used the Ontario Cancer Registry to identify adults (aged 18-105 yr) who received a diagnosis of breast cancer from 2013 to 2017. We excluded patients if they were not Ontario residents or had missing age or sex, or who died before diagnosis. We used logistic regression to evaluate factors associated with categorical variables (whether patients were or were not referred to an OBAS, whether patients were screened or symptomatic) and Cox proportional hazards regression to identify factors associated with all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Of 51 460 patients with breast cancer, 42 598 (83%) received their diagnoses at an O-BAS. Patients whose cancer was first detected through the OBSP were more likely than symptomatic patients to be given a diagnosis at an O-BAS (adjusted odds ratio 1.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.57 to 1.80). Patients screened by the OBSP were given their diagnoses 1 month earlier than symptomatic patients, but diagnosis at an O-BAS did not affect the time until either diagnosis or treatment. Patients referred to an O-BAS had significantly better overall survival than those who were not referred (adjusted hazard ratio 0.73, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.80).

INTERPRETATION

Patients screened through the OBSP were given their diagnoses earlier than symptomatic patients and were more likely to be referred to an O-BAS, which was associated with better survival. Our findings suggest that individuals with signs and symptoms of breast cancer would benefit from similar referral processes, oversight and standards to those used by the OBSP.

Triple-negative and HER2-positive breast cancers found by mammography screening show excellent prognosis

PURPOSE

Our purpose was to explore the prognosis of aggressive breast cancers of the HER2 oncogene amplification (HER2 +) and triple-negative (TN) subtypes detected by screening, as well as the prognosis of interval cancers (clinically due to symptoms between screening rounds) and cancers in screening nonparticipants.

METHODS

The study population comprised of 823 breast cancers in women aged 50-69 years from 2006-2014. Of these, 572 were found by screening mammography (69%), 170 were diagnosed between the screening rounds (21%), and 81 were diagnosed in women who did not participate in the screening program (10%).

RESULTS

The majority of all HER2 + (59%) and TN cancers (57%) in this age group were detected by screening. Screen-detected HER2 + tumors were small (median 12 mm), and node-negative (84%). During a median follow-up of eight years, the distant disease-free survival of screen-detected HER2 + and TN cancers was better than that of interval and nonparticipant cancers (age-adjusted HR = 0.16, 95% CI 0.03-0.81 and HR = 0.09, 95% CI 0.01-0.79, respectively). In nonparticipants, the distant disease-free survival of these cancers was worse than in participants (age-adjusted HR = 2.52, 95% CI 0.63-10.11 and HR = 5.30, 95% 1.16-24.29, respectively).

CONCLUSION

In the 50-69 age group, the majority of HER2 + and TN cancers can be found by a quality assured population-based mammography screening. Despite their generally aggressive behavior, after a median follow-up of 8 years, distant disease-free survival was over 90% of these cancers detected by screening. The worst prognosis of these cancers was in women who did not participate in screening.

Do low-fat foods alter risk of colorectal cancer from processed meat?

OBJECTIVES

We investigated potential causes of the high incidence rate of colorectal cancer (CRC) in New Zealand.

STUDY DESIGN

A national population-based case-control study of 806 cases and 1025 controls was conducted to determine the risk factors for CRC in this population.

METHODS

Information about family history of CRC, ethnicity, diet, school milk consumption, exercise, and height and weight at age 20 years were collected by a self-administered questionnaire from cases and controls.

RESULTS

Response rates were 84% for cases and 65% for controls. Increasing preference for low-fat food alternatives was associated with reducing odds ratios (OR) for CRC (P_trend<0.001) with a considerably reduced OR of always versus never choosing low-fat food alternatives (OR = 0.39, 95% confidence interval = 0.26, 0.58). Increased consumption of dairy products or milk was associated with reduced risk of CRC. Belonging to the male gender, having a first degree relative with CRC, and increasing consumption of processed meat, lamb, pork, and bread were associated with elevated risks of CRC. The increased risk from consumption of processed meat was not evident in subjects who regularly or always preferred low-fat food.

CONCLUSIONS

A preference for low-fat food may ameliorate an increased risk of CRC from the consumption of processed meat.

Risk factors for estrogen receptor positive ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast in African American women

Background

Compared to U.S. white women, African American women are more likely to die from ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Elucidation of risk factors for DCIS in African American women may provide opportunities for risk reduction.

Methods

We used data from three epidemiologic studies in the African American Breast Cancer Epidemiology and Risk Consortium to study risk factors for estrogen receptor (ER) positive DCIS (488 cases; 13,830 controls). Results were compared to associations observed for ER+ invasive breast cancer (n = 2,099).

Results

First degree family history of breast cancer was associated with increased risk of ER+ DCIS [odds ratio (OR): 1.69, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.31, 2.17]. Oral contraceptive use within the past 10 years (vs. never) was also associated with increased risk (OR: 1.43, 95%CI: 1.03, 1.97), as was late age at first birth (≥25 years vs. <20 years) (OR: 1.26, 95%CI: 0.96, 1.67). Risk was reduced in women with older age at menarche (≥15 years vs. <11 years) (OR: 0.62, 95%CI: 0.42, 0.93) and higher body mass index (BMI) in early adulthood (≥25 vs. <20 kg/m² at age 18 or 21) (OR: 0.75, 95%CI: 0.55, 1.01). There was a positive association of recent BMI with risk in postmenopausal women only. In general, associations of risk factors for ER+ DCIS were similar in magnitude and direction to those for invasive ER+ breast cancer.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that most risk factors for invasive ER+ breast cancer are also associated with increased risk of ER+ DCIS among African American women.

•

Few studies of risk factors for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) have evaluated associations for African American women.

•

We analyzed data from the African American African American Breast Cancer Epidemiology and Risk (AMBER) Consortium.

•

Family history of breast cancer, reproductive factors, and anthropometric factors were associated with risk of ER+ DCIS.

•

In general, risk factor associations for ER+ DCIS were similar to those for ER+ invasive breast cancer.

•

Our findings support a common etiology and pathogenesis between ER+ DICS and ER+ invasive cancer in African American women.

Continuous tumour growth models, lead time estimation and length bias in breast cancer screening studies

Comparisons of survival times between screen-detected and symptomatically detected breast cancer cases are subject to lead time and length biases. Whilst the existence of these biases is well known, correction procedures for these are not always clear, as are not the interpretation of these biases. In this paper we derive, based on a recently developed continuous tumour growth model, conditional lead time distributions, using information on each individual's tumour size, screening history and percent mammographic density. We show how these distributions can be used to obtain an individual-based (conditional) procedure for correcting survival comparisons. In stratified analyses, our correction procedure works markedly better than a previously used unconditional lead time correction, based on multi-state Markov modelling. In a study of postmenopausal invasive breast cancer patients, we estimate that, in large (>12 mm) tumours, the multi-state Markov model correction over-corrects five-year survival by 2–3 percentage points. The traditional view of length bias is that tumours being present in a woman's breast for a long time, due to being slow-growing, have a greater chance of being screen-detected. This gives a survival advantage for screening cases which is not due to the earlier detection by screening. We use simulated data to share the new insight that, not only the tumour growth rate but also the symptomatic tumour size will affect the sampling procedure, and thus be a part of the length bias through any link between tumour size and survival. We explain how this has a bearing on how observable breast cancer-specific survival curves should be interpreted. We also propose an approach for correcting survival comparisons for the length bias.

Risk factors for Luminal A ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and invasive breast cancer in the Carolina Breast Cancer Study

Purpose

Invasive breast cancers are thought to arise from in situ lesions, but some ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) are indolent with low likelihood of progressing to invasive carcinoma. Comparison of risk factor associations between DCIS and invasive disease may elucidate which factors influence early versus late stages of carcinogenesis. Therefore, we determined whether there were differences in risk factor profiles for screen-detected DCIS and invasive breast cancer among Luminal A lesions.

Methods

We conducted a case-control analysis using data from the Carolina Breast Cancer Study (1993–2001). Analyses were restricted to Luminal A tumors and screen-detected tumors among mammography-eligible women, to limit confounding by mode of detection (N = 108 DCIS; N = 203 invasive). Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between risk factors and lesion type.

Results

In stratified analyses, we observed qualitative differences in the direction of association for ever smoking, obese BMI, high waist-to-hip-ratio (WHR), and ≥10 years of oral contraceptive use between DCIS and invasive disease. Breastfeeding was inversely associated with invasive disease and was not associated with DCIS. Interaction tests for risk factor associations between Luminal A DCIS and invasive breast cancer were not statistically significant (p>0.05).

Conclusions

Among Luminal A tumors, established breast cancer risk factors may exert stronger effects on progression of early lesions to invasive disease, with lesser effects on risk of DCIS.

Recent Improvement in the Long-term Survival of Breast Cancer Patients by Age and Stage in Japan

Background

Recent improvements in 5-year survival of breast cancer have been reported in Japan and other countries. Though the number of long-term breast cancer survivors has been increasing, recent improvements in 10-year survival have not been reported. Moreover, the degree of improvement according to age and disease stage remains unclear.

Methods

We calculated long-term survival using data on breast cancer diagnosed from 1993 through 2006 from six prefectural population-based cancer registries in Japan. The recent increase in 10-year relative survival was assessed by comparing the results of period analysis in 2002–2006 with the results of cohort analysis in 1993–1997. We also conducted stratified analyses by age group (15–34, 35–49, 50–69, and 70–99 years) and disease stage (localized, regional, and distant).

Results

A total of 63,348 patients were analysed. Ten-year relative survival improved by 2.4% (76.9% vs 79.3%) from 1993 through 2006. By age and stage, 10-year relative survival clearly improved in the age 35–49 years (+2.9%; 78.1% vs 81.0%), 50–69 years (+2.8%; 75.2% vs 78.0%) and regional disease (+3.4%; 64.9% vs 68.3%). In contrast, the degree of improvement was small in the age 15–34 years (+0.1%; 68.2% vs 68.3%), 70–99 years (+1.0%; 87.6% vs 88.6%), localized disease (+1.1%; 92.6% vs 93.7%) and distant metastasis (+0.9%; 13.8% vs 14.7%).

Conclusions

These population-based cancer registry data show that 10-year relative survival improved 2.4% over this period in Japan. By age and stage, improvement in the age 15–34 years and distant metastasis was very small, which suggests the need for new therapeutic strategies in these patients.

Mammography, Martin Yaffe, and me: response and appreciation

I thank Dr. Martin Yaffe for his many constructive comments in his thoughtful review of my previous invited editorial, providing valuable insights into the complex and controversial issues of the current mammography debate. [...]

Pre-diagnostic polyphenol intake and breast cancer survival: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort

The aim was to investigate the association between pre-diagnostic intakes of polyphenol classes (flavonoids, lignans, phenolic acids, stilbenes, and other polyphenols) in relation to breast cancer survival (all-cause and breast cancer-specific mortality). We used data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Pre-diagnostic usual diet was assessed using dietary questionnaires, and polyphenol intakes were estimated using the Phenol-Explorer database. We followed 11,782 breast cancer cases from time of diagnosis until death, end of follow-up or last day of contact. During a median of 6 years, 1482 women died (753 of breast cancer). We related polyphenol intake to all-cause and breast cancer-specific mortality using Cox proportional hazard models with time since diagnosis as underlying time and strata for age and country. Among postmenopausal women, an intake of lignans in the highest versus lowest quartile was related to a 28 % lower risk of dying from breast (adjusted model: HR, quartile 4 vs. quartile 1, 0.72, 95 % CI 0.53; 0.98). In contrast, in premenopausal women, a positive association between lignan intake and all-cause mortality was found (adjusted model: HR, quartile 4 vs. quartile 1, 1.63, 95 % CI 1.03; 2.57). We found no association for other polyphenol classes. Intake of lignans before breast cancer diagnosis may be related to improved survival among postmenopausal women, but may on the contrary worsen the survival for premenopausal women. This suggests that the role of phytoestrogens in breast cancer survival is complex and may be dependent of menopausal status.

Screening mammography: update and review of publications since our report in the New England Journal of Medicine on the magnitude of the problem in the United States

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

After a half century of clinical trials, expansive observations, vigorous advocacy and debate, screening mammography could not be in a more controversial condition, especially the potential harm of overdiagnosis. Despite a simple rationale (catch the cancer early and either prevent death or at least decrease the amount of therapy needed for cure), the estimates to date of overdiagnosis rates are conflicting and the interpretations complex.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Since the author's 2012 publication in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), the peer-reviewed publications on overdiagnosis caused by screening mammography are reviewed and the NEJM analyses updated with three additional calendar years of results.

RESULTS

The recent peer-reviewed medical literature on screening mammography induced overdiagnosis of breast cancer has increased exponentially, nearly 10-fold in 10 years. The average estimate of overdiagnosis is about 30%, but the range extends from 0% to 70+%. An update of the NEJM report estimates that in the US, 78,000 women and 30%-31% of those diagnosed with breast cancer at the age of 40 years or older during 2011 were overdiagnosed.

CONCLUSIONS

Until we have better screening procedures that identify who really has cancer and needs to be treated, the risk of overdiagnosis relative to the benefit of screening merits more effective public and professional education. Radiologists, pathologists, and other professionals involved with screening mammography should recognize that the potential harm of overdiagnosis is downplayed or not discussed with the patient and family, despite agreement that the objective is informed choice.

Survival benefit in women with BRCA1 mutation or familial risk in the MRI screening study (MRISC)

Adding MRI to annual mammography screening improves early breast cancer detection in women with familial risk or BRCA1/2 mutation, but breast cancer specific metastasis free survival (MFS) remains unknown. We compared MFS of patients from the largest prospective MRI Screening Study (MRISC) with 1:1 matched controls. Controls, unscreened if<50 years, and screened with biennial mammography if ≥50 years, were matched on risk category (BRCA1, BRCA2, familial risk), year and age of diagnosis. Of 2,308 MRISC participants, breast cancer was detected in 93 (97 breast cancers), who received MRI <2 years before breast cancer diagnosis; 33 BRCA1 mutation carriers, 18 BRCA2 mutation carriers, and 42 with familial risk. MRISC patients had smaller (87% vs. 52% <T2, p < 0.001), more often node negative (69% vs. 44%, p = 0.001) tumors and received less chemotherapy (39% vs. 77%, p < 0.001) and hormonal therapy (14% vs. 47%, p < 0.001) than controls. Median follow-up time was 9 years (range 0-14). Breast cancer metastasized in 9% (8/93) of MRISC patients and in 23% (21/93) of controls (p = 0.009). MFS was better in MRISC patients overall (log-rank p = 0.008, HR 0.36, 95% CI 0.16-0.80), with familial risk (log-rank p = 0.024, HR: 0.21, 95% CI 0.04-0.95), and in BRCA1 mutation carriers (log-rank p = 0.055, HR 0.30, 95% CI 0.08-1.13). MFS remained better in MRISC patients after lead time correction (log-rank p = 0.020, HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.18-0.90). Overall survival was non-significantly better in MRISC patients (log-rank p = 0.064, HR 0.51, CI 0.24-1.06). Annual screening with MRI and mammography improves metastasis free survival in women with BRCA1 mutation or familial predisposition.

Effect of implementation of the mass breast cancer screening programme in older women in the Netherlands: population based study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the incidence of early stage and advanced stage breast cancer before and after the implementation of mass screening in women aged 70-75 years in the Netherlands in 1998.

DESIGN

Prospective nationwide population based study.

SETTING

National cancer registry, the Netherlands.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients aged 70-75 years with a diagnosis of invasive or ductal carcinoma in situ breast cancer between 1995 and 2011 (n=25,414). Incidence rates were calculated using population data from Statistics Netherlands.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Incidence rates of early stage (I, II, or ductal carcinoma in situ) and advanced stage (III and IV) breast cancer before and after implementation of screening. Hypotheses were formulated before data collection.

RESULTS

The incidence of early stage tumours significantly increased after the extension for implementation of screening (248.7 cases per 100,000 women before screening up to 362.9 cases per 100,000 women after implementation of screening, incidence rate ratio 1.46, 95% confidence interval 1.40 to 1.52, P<0.001). However, the incidence of advanced stage breast cancers decreased to a far lesser extent (58.6 cases per 100,000 women before screening to 51.8 cases per 100,000 women after implementation of screening, incidence rate ratio 0.88, 0.81 to 0.97, P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The extension of the upper age limit to 75 years has only led to a small decrease in incidence of advanced stage breast cancer, while that of early stage tumours has strongly increased.