Population-based recurrence rates among older women with HR-positive, HER2-negative early breast cancer: Clinical risk factors, frailty status, and differences by race

Estimated incidence of disruptions to event-free survival from non-metastatic cancers in New South Wales, Australia - a population-wide epidemiological study of linked cancer registry and treatment data

Introduction

Population cancer registries record primary cancer incidence, mortality and survival for whole populations, but not more timely outcomes such as cancer recurrence, secondary cancers or other complications that disrupt event-free survival. Nonetheless, indirect evidence may be inferred from treatment data to provide indicators of recurrence and like events, which can facilitate earlier assessment of care outcomes. The present study aims to infer such evidence by applying algorithms to linked cancer registry and treatment data obtained from hospitals and universal health insurance claims applicable to the New South Wales (NSW) population of Australia.

Materials and methods

Primary invasive cancers from the NSW Cancer Registry (NSWCR), diagnosed in 2001-2018 with localized or regionalized summary stage, were linked to treatment data for five common Australian cancers: breast, colon/rectum, lung, prostate, and skin (melanomas). Clinicians specializing in each cancer type provided guidance on expected treatment pathways and departures to indicate remission and subsequent recurrence or other disruptive events. A sample survey of patients and clinicians served to test initial population-wide results. Following consequent refinement of the algorithms, estimates of recurrence and like events were generated. Their plausibility was assessed by their correspondence with expected outcomes by tumor type and summary stage at diagnosis and by their associations with cancer survival.

Results

Kaplan-Meier product limit estimates indicated that 5-year cumulative probabilities of recurrence and other disruptive events were lower, and median times to these events longer, for those staged as localized rather than regionalized. For localized and regionalized cancers respectively, these were: breast - 7% (866 days) and 34% (570 days); colon/rectum - 15% (732 days) and 25% (641 days); lung - 46% (552 days) and 66% (404 days); melanoma - 11% (893 days) and 38% (611 days); and prostate - 14% (742 days) and 39% (478 days). Cases with markers for these events had poorer longer-term survival.

Conclusions

These population-wide estimates of recurrence and like events are approximations only. Absent more direct measures, they nonetheless may inform service planning by indicating population or treatment sub-groups at increased risk of recurrence and like events sooner than waiting for deaths to occur.

A new prediction nomogram of non-sentinel lymph node metastasis in cT1-2 breast cancer patients with positive sentinel lymph nodes

We aimed to analyze the risk factors and construct a new nomogram to predict non-sentinel lymph node (NSLN) metastasis for cT1-2 breast cancer patients with positivity after sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB). A total of 830 breast cancer patients who underwent surgery between 2016 and 2021 at multi-center were included in the retrospective analysis. Patients were divided into training (n = 410), internal validation (n = 298), and external validation cohorts (n = 122) based on periods and centers. A nomogram-based prediction model for the risk of NSLN metastasis was constructed by incorporating independent predictors of NSLN metastasis identified through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses in the training cohort and then validated by validation cohorts. The multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the number of positive sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs) (P < 0.001), the proportion of positive SLNs (P = 0.029), lymph-vascular invasion (P = 0.029), perineural invasion (P = 0.023), and estrogen receptor (ER) status (P = 0.034) were independent risk factors for NSLN metastasis. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) value of this model was 0.730 (95% CI 0.676-0.785) for the training, 0.701 (95% CI 0.630-0.773) for internal validation, and 0.813 (95% CI 0.734-0.891) for external validation cohorts. Decision curve analysis also showed that the model could be effectively applied in clinical practice. The proposed nomogram estimated the likelihood of positive NSLNs and assisted the surgeon in deciding whether to perform further axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) and avoid non-essential ALND as well as postoperative complications.

Socioecologic Factors and Racial Differences in Breast Cancer Multigene Prognostic Scores in US Women

Importance

Disproportionately aggressive tumor biology among non-Hispanic Black women with early-stage, estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer contributes to racial disparities in breast cancer mortality. It is unclear whether socioecologic factors underlie racial differences in breast tumor biology.

Objective

To examine individual-level (insurance status) and contextual (area-level socioeconomic position and rural or urban residence) factors as possible mediators of racial and ethnic differences in the prevalence of ER-positive breast tumors with aggressive biology, as indicated by a high-risk gene expression profile.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study included women 18 years or older diagnosed with stage I to II, ER-positive breast cancer between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2015. All data analyses were conducted between December 2022 and April 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was the likelihood of a high-risk recurrence score (RS) (≥26) on the Oncotype DX 21-gene breast tumor prognostic genomic biomarker.

Results

Among 69 139 women (mean [SD] age, 57.7 [10.5] years; 6310 Hispanic [9.1%], 274 non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaskan Native [0.4%], 6017 non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander [8.7%], 5380 non-Hispanic Black [7.8%], and 51 158 non-Hispanic White [74.0%]) included in our analysis, non-Hispanic Black (odds ratio [OR], 1.33; 95% CI, 1.23-1.43) and non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaska Native women (OR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.01-1.86) had greater likelihood of a high-risk RS compared with non-Hispanic White women. There were no significant differences among other racial and ethnic groups. Compared with non-Hispanic White patients, there were greater odds of a high-risk RS for non-Hispanic Black women residing in urban areas (OR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.24-1.46), but not among rural residents (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.77-1.41). Mediation analysis demonstrated that lack of insurance, county-level disadvantage, and urban vs rural residence partially explained the greater odds of a high-risk RS among non-Hispanic Black women (proportion mediated, 17%; P < .001).

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this cohort study suggest that the consequences of structural racism extend beyond inequities in health care to drive disparities in breast cancer outcome. Additional research is needed with more comprehensive social and environmental measures to better understand the influence of social determinants on aggressive ER-positive tumor biology among racial and ethnic minoritized women from disadvantaged and historically marginalized communities.

How frail is frail in oncology studies? A scoping review

AIMS

The frailty index (FI) is one way in which frailty can be quantified. While it is measured as a continuous variable, various cut-off points have been used to categorise older adults as frail or non-frail, and these have largely been validated in the acute care or community settings for older adults without cancer. This review aimed to explore which FI categories have been applied to older adults with cancer and to determine why these categories were selected by study authors.

METHODS

This scoping review searched Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane, CINAHL, and Web of Science databases for studies which measured and categorised an FI in adults with cancer. Of the 1994 screened, 41 were eligible for inclusion. Data including oncological setting, FI categories, and the references or rationale for categorisation were extracted and analysed.

RESULTS

The FI score used to categorise participants as frail ranged from 0.06 to 0.35, with 0.35 being the most frequently used, followed by 0.25 and 0.20. The rationale for FI categories was provided in most studies but was not always relevant. Three of the included studies using an FI > 0.35 to define frailty were frequently referenced as the rationale for subsequent studies, however, the original rationale for this categorisation was unclear. Few studies sought to determine or validate optimum FI categorises in this population.

CONCLUSION

There is significant variability in how studies have categorised the FI in older adults with cancer. An FI ≥ 0.35 to categorise frailty was used most frequently, however an FI in this range has often represented at least moderate to severe frailty in other highly-cited studies. These findings contrast with a scoping review of highly-cited studies categorising FI in older adults without cancer, where an FI ≥ 0.25 was most common. Maintaining the FI as a continuous variable is likely to be beneficial until further validation studies determine optimum FI categories in this population. Differences in how the FI has been categorised, and indeed how older adults have been labelled as 'frail', limits our ability to synthesise results and to understand the impact of frailty in cancer care.

Survival Disparities in US Black Compared to White Women with Hormone Receptor Positive-HER2 Negative Breast Cancer

Black women in the US have significantly higher breast cancer mortality than White women. Within biomarker-defined tumor subtypes, disparate outcomes seem to be limited to women with hormone receptor positive and HER2 negative (HR+/HER2-) breast cancer, a subtype usually associated with favorable prognosis. In this review, we present data from an array of studies that demonstrate significantly higher mortality in Black compared to White women with HR+/HER2-breast cancer and contrast these data to studies from integrated healthcare systems that failed to find survival differences. Then, we describe factors, both biological and non-biological, that may contribute to disparate survival in Black women.

10-year survival in female breast cancer patients according to ER, PR and HER2 expression: a cancer registry population-based analysis

INTRODUCTION

Invasive breast cancer prognosis has significantly improved over time; however, there are few data about the long-term survival.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We analysed the data on female breast cancer incident during 2004-2005 in the area of the Tuscan Cancer Registry, distinguishing them in five subtypes, according to ER, PgR, HER2, and Ki67 expression: luminal A, luminal B, luminal B/HER2 + , triple-negative, and HER2 + . Effects of subtypes and age on 10 years breast cancer specific survival were analysed by Kaplan-Meier and multivariate Cox analysis.

RESULTS

The majority of breast cancer were luminal B (57%), and 45% of them were diagnosed at pathological stage I. The 10-year survival rates (p < 0.001) were higher among luminal A (90.2%) and lower among HER-2 + patients (70.3%). Prognostic effect of age was statistically significant (p < 0.0004): the 10-year cancer specific survival rates were higher among 40-59 years of age patients (88.5%), lower among 0-39 (75.8%). Luminal A breast cancer patients had a constant low risk throughout 10 years of follow up, while luminal B/HER2 + and triple negative tumours showed a peak 5 years after the diagnosis and then declined.

DISCUSSION

Our study confirmed the prognostic effect of biological subtype also in a long term follow up study; moreover, age at diagnosis showed to influence the outcome, other than stage at diagnosis and treatment. The long term follow up showed a constant risk of death for luminal A and B tumours, whereas for non-luminal cancer a peak 5 years after the diagnosis was found.