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Nors J, Iversen LH, Erichsen R, Gotschalck KA, Andersen CL. Incidence of Recurrence and Time to Recurrence in Stage I to III Colorectal Cancer: A Nationwide Danish Cohort Study. JAMA Oncol 2024; 10:54-62. [PMID: 37971197 PMCID: PMC10654928 DOI: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2023.5098] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2023] [Accepted: 08/21/2023] [Indexed: 11/19/2023]
Abstract
Importance Management of colorectal cancer (CRC) has been updated continuously over the past 2 decades. While the combination of these initiatives has had implications for improved survival, the implications for rates of recurrence remain unexplored. Objective To ascertain the rates of recurrence and describe time to recurrence within 5 years of surgery with curative intent for stages I to III CRC. Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study used the Danish Colorectal Cancer Group Database to identify patients with Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) stages I to III CRC who underwent primary surgery between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2019. They were followed up until recurrence (event), death (competing event), diagnosis of a second cancer (competing event), emigration (censoring event), 5 years postoperatively (censoring event), or January 1, 2023 (censoring event), whichever came first. Recurrence status was ascertained through individual-level linked data from the Danish Cancer Registry, Danish National Patient Registry, and Danish Pathology Registry using a validated algorithm. Data were analyzed from January 1 to August 8, 2023. Exposure Primary surgery performed during 3 calendar periods (2004-2008, 2009-2013, and 2014-2019) stratified by tumor site (colon or rectum) and UICC stage (I, II, and III). Main Outcomes and Measures Stage-specific 5-year recurrence reported as the cumulative incidence function (CIF) of recurrence, the association between calendar period of primary surgery and recurrence risk reported as subdistribution hazard ratios (sHRs), and the time from surgery to recurrence. Results Of the 34 166 patients with UICC stages I to III CRC (median [IQR] age, 70 [62-77] years); 18 552 males [54.3%]) included in the study, 7027 developed recurrence within 5 years after the primary surgery. For colon cancer, the 5-year CIF of recurrence decreased over the 3 calendar periods from 16.3% to 6.8% for UICC stage I, from 21.9% to 11.6% for UICC stage II, and from 35.3% to 24.6% for UICC stage III colon cancer. For rectal cancer, the 5-year CIF decreased over the 3 periods from 19.9% to 9.5% for stage I, from 25.8% to 18.4% for stage II, and from 38.7% to 28.8% for stage III disease. Patients with stage III disease had a shorter time from surgery to recurrence compared with those with stage I disease (time ratio stage III vs stage I = 0.30; 95% CI, 0.28-0.32). Cancers detected through screening were associated with lower stage-adjusted risks of recurrence (sHR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.73-0.91) compared with cancers not detected through screening. Conclusions and Relevance In this cohort of patients with CRC, the risk of recurrence decreased in patients with stages I to III disease during the study period. Cancer detection by screening was associated with an even lower risk of recurrence. Time to recurrence differed according to UICC stage. Because the risk of recurrence was so low in selected patient groups, future research is warranted to explore risk-stratified surveillance protocols in patients with CRC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jesper Nors
- Department of Molecular Medicine, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Lene Hjerrild Iversen
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
- Department of Surgery, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Rune Erichsen
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark
- Department of Surgery, Randers Regional Hospital, Randers, Denmark
| | - Kåre Andersson Gotschalck
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
- Department of Surgery, Horsens Regional Hospital, Horsens, Denmark
| | - Claus Lindbjerg Andersen
- Department of Molecular Medicine, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
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Mariotto AB, Botta L, Bernasconi A, Zou Z, Gatta G, Capocaccia R. Prediction of Risk of Metastatic Recurrence for Female Breast Cancer Patients in the Presence of Competing Causes of Death. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2023; 32:1683-1689. [PMID: 37707367 PMCID: PMC10979392 DOI: 10.1158/1055-9965.epi-23-0544] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2023] [Revised: 08/09/2023] [Accepted: 09/12/2023] [Indexed: 09/15/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND To estimate risk of recurrence for women diagnosed with nonmetastatic breast cancer considering the risks of other causes mortality. METHODS We extend a method based on the diagnosis-metastasis-death pathway to include risks of other causes mortality. We estimate three probabilities as cumulative incidence of: (i) being alive and recurrence-free, (ii) death for other causes before a recurrence, and (iii) recurrence. We apply the method to female breast cancer relative survival from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program registries (2000-2018) data. RESULTS The cumulative incidence of recurrence shows a higher increase with more advanced cancer stage and is less influenced by age at diagnosis. At 5 years from diagnosis, the cumulative incidence of recurrence is less than 3% for those diagnosed with stage I, 10% to 13% for those diagnosed with stage II, and 37% to 47% for those diagnosed with stage III breast cancer. The estimates of recurrence considering versus ignoring the risks of dying from other causes were generally consistent, except for older women with more advanced stage, and longer time since diagnosis. In these groups, the net probability of recurrence, excluding the risks of dying from other causes, were overestimated. CONCLUSIONS For patients with cancer who are older or long-term survivors, it is important to include the risks of other cause mortality as the crude cumulative incidence of recurrence is a more appropriate measure. IMPACT These estimates are important in clinical decision making, as higher competing mortality may preclude the benefits of aggressive treatments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Angela B. Mariotto
- Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Laura Botta
- Evaluative Epidemiology Unit, Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale Tumori, Milan, Italy
| | - Alice Bernasconi
- Evaluative Epidemiology Unit, Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale Tumori, Milan, Italy
| | - Zhaohui Zou
- Information Management Services Inc., Calverton, Maryland, USA
| | - Gemma Gatta
- Evaluative Epidemiology Unit, Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale Tumori, Milan, Italy
| | - Riccardo Capocaccia
- Independent Researcher (formerly affilliated with Istituto Superiore di Sanita), Rome, Italy
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Rodriguez PJ, Heagerty PJ, Clark S, Khor S, Chen Y, Haupt E, Hahn EE, Shankaran V, Bansal A. Using Machine Learning to Leverage Biomarker Change and Predict Colorectal Cancer Recurrence. JCO Clin Cancer Inform 2023; 7:e2300066. [PMID: 37963310 PMCID: PMC10681492 DOI: 10.1200/cci.23.00066] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2023] [Revised: 06/12/2023] [Accepted: 07/12/2023] [Indexed: 11/16/2023] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE The risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) recurrence after primary treatment varies across individuals and over time. Using patients' most up-to-date information, including carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) biomarker profiles, to predict risk could improve personalized decision making. METHODS We used electronic health record data from an integrated health system on a cohort of patients diagnosed with American Joint Committee on Cancer stage I-III CRC between 2008 and 2013 (N = 3,970) and monitored until recurrence or end of follow-up. We addressed missingness in recurrence outcomes and longitudinal CEA measures, and engineered CEA features using current and past biomarker values for inclusion in a risk prediction model. We used a discrete time Superlearner model to evaluate various algorithms for predicting recurrence. We evaluated the time-varying discrimination and calibration of the algorithms and assessed the role of individual predictors. RESULTS Recurrence was documented in 448 (11.3%) patients. XGBoost with depth = 1 (XGB-D1) predicted recurrence substantially better than all other algorithms at all time points, with AUC ranging from 0.87 (95% CI, 0.86 to 0.88) at 6 months to 0.94 (95% CI, 0.92 to 0.96) at 54 months. The only variable used by XGB-D1 was 6-month change in log CEA. Predicted 1-year risk of recurrence was nearly zero for patients whose log CEA did not increase in the last 6 months, between 12.2% and 34.1% for patients whose log CEA increased between 0.10 and 0.40, and 43.6% for those with a log CEA increase >0.40. Compared with XGB, penalized regression approaches (lasso, ridge, and elastic net) performed poorly, with AUCs ranging from 0.58 to 0.69. CONCLUSION A flexible, machine learning approach that incorporated longitudinal CEA information yielded a simple and high-performing model for predicting recurrence on the basis of 6-month change in log CEA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patricia J. Rodriguez
- The Comparative Health Outcomes, Policy & Economics (CHOICE) Institute, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
| | | | - Samantha Clark
- The Comparative Health Outcomes, Policy & Economics (CHOICE) Institute, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
| | - Sara Khor
- The Comparative Health Outcomes, Policy & Economics (CHOICE) Institute, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
| | - Yilin Chen
- The Comparative Health Outcomes, Policy & Economics (CHOICE) Institute, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
| | - Eric Haupt
- Department of Research and Evaluation, Kaiser Permanente Southern California, Pasadena, CA
| | - Erin E. Hahn
- Department of Research and Evaluation, Kaiser Permanente Southern California, Pasadena, CA
- Department of Health Systems Science, Kaiser Permanente Bernard J. Tyson School of Medicine, Pasadena, CA
| | | | - Aasthaa Bansal
- The Comparative Health Outcomes, Policy & Economics (CHOICE) Institute, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA
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Mariotto AB, Thompson TD, Johnson C, Wu XC, Pollack LA. Breast and colorectal cancer recurrence-free survival estimates in the US: Modeling versus active data collection. Cancer Epidemiol 2023; 85:102370. [PMID: 37148828 PMCID: PMC10956542 DOI: 10.1016/j.canep.2023.102370] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2023] [Revised: 04/13/2023] [Accepted: 04/17/2023] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND A modeling method was developed to estimate recurrence-free survival using cancer registry survival data. This study aims to validate the modeled recurrence-free survival against "gold-standard" estimates from data collected by the National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) Patient-Centered Outcomes Research (PCOR) project. METHODS We compared 5-year metastatic recurrence-free survival using modeling and empirical estimates from the PCOR project that collected disease-free status, tumor progression and recurrence for colorectal and female breast cancer cases diagnosed in 2011 in 5 U.S. state registries. To estimate empirical recurrence-free survival, we developed an algorithm that combined disease-free, recurrence, progression, and date information from NPCR-PCOR data. We applied the modeling method to relative survival for patients diagnosed with female breast and colorectal cancer in 2000-2015 in the SEER-18 areas. RESULTS When grouping patients with stages I-III, the 5-year metastatic recurrence-free modeled and NPCR-PCOR estimates are very similar being respectively, 90.2 % and 88.6 % for female breast cancer, 74.6 % and 75.3 % for colon cancer, and 68.8 % and 68.5 % for rectum cancer. In general, the 5-year recurrence-free NPCR-PCOR and modeled estimates are still similar when controlling by stage. The modeled estimates, however, are not as accurate for recurrence-free survival in years 1-3 from diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS The alignment between NPCR-PCOR and modeled estimates supports their validity and provides robust population-based estimates of 5-year metastatic recurrence-free survival for female breast, colon, and rectum cancers. The modeling approach can in principle be extended to other cancer sites to provide provisional population-based estimates of 5-year recurrence free survival.
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Affiliation(s)
- Angela B Mariotto
- Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA.
| | - Trevor D Thompson
- Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Chris Johnson
- Cancer Data Registry of Idaho, Idaho Hospital Association, Boise, ID, USA
| | - Xiao-Cheng Wu
- LSU Health Sciences Center, School of Public Health, New Orleans, LA, USA
| | - Lori A Pollack
- Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
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Fathoni MIA, Gunardi, Adi-Kusumo F, Hutajulu SH, Purwanto I. Characteristics of breast cancer patients at dr. Sardjito Hospital for early anticipation of neutropenia: Cross-sectional study. Ann Med Surg (Lond) 2022; 73:103189. [PMID: 35079356 PMCID: PMC8767265 DOI: 10.1016/j.amsu.2021.103189] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/29/2021] [Revised: 12/13/2021] [Accepted: 12/19/2021] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
The highest prevalence of breast cancer in Indonesia is in the Province of Yogyakarta. dr. Sardjito General Hospital has quite complete clinical data on breast cancer patients. Characteristics of the population in various regions in Indonesia are different from one another. This problem is the basis for doing this research. Statistical data analysis needs to be done in each area for better diagnosis and treatment of cancer. Data recording is carried out continuously during outpatient treatment at dr. Sardjito General Hospital. Data for breast cancer patients was taken from July 2018 to June 2020. The data obtained were grouped into four categories: laboratory investigation, socio-demographic, clinical examination, and pathology. Descriptive and correlation analysis aims to determine the characteristics of breast cancer patients seeking treatment at dr. Sardjito General Hospital and anticipate their possibility of developing neutropenia after chemotherapy. The results of the descriptive analysis are significant to determine patient characteristics and treatment steps that can be taken. Correlation analysis variables closely related to neutrophils included leucocyte count, lymphocyte, monocyte, albumin, age at first diagnosis, and height. These variables can be a severe concern of medical personnel before undergoing chemotherapy, especially lymphocytes, which have the largest (negative) correlation and can be an early sign of neutropenia. Characteristics of the population in various regions in Indonesia are different from one another. Statistical data analysis needs to be done in each area for better diagnosis and treatment of cancer. The results of the descriptive analysis are essential to determine patient statistics and the treatment steps taken. The strong correlation with neutrophils are leukocytes, lymphocytes, monocytes, albumin, age, and height.
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Warren JL, Noone AM, Stevens J, Wu XC, Hseih MC, Mumphrey B, Schmidt R, Coyle L, Shields R, Mariotto AB. The Utility of Pathology Reports to Identify Persons With Cancer Recurrence. Med Care 2022; 60:44-49. [PMID: 34812787 PMCID: PMC8720471 DOI: 10.1097/mlr.0000000000001669] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/03/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cancer recurrence is an important measure of the impact of cancer treatment. However, no population-based data on recurrence are available. Pathology reports could potentially identify cancer recurrences. Their utility to capture recurrences is unknown. OBJECTIVE This analysis assesses the sensitivity of pathology reports to identify patients with cancer recurrence and the stage at recurrence. SUBJECTS The study includes patients with recurrent breast (n=214) or colorectal (n=203) cancers. RESEARCH DESIGN This retrospective analysis included patients from a population-based cancer registry who were part of the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research (PCOR) Study, a project that followed cancer patients in-depth for 5 years after diagnosis to identify recurrences. MEASURES Information abstracted from pathology reports for patients with recurrence was compared with their PCOR data (gold standard) to determine what percent had a pathology report at the time of recurrence, the sensitivity of text in the report to identify recurrence, and if the stage at recurrence could be determined from the pathology report. RESULTS One half of cancer patients had a pathology report near the time of recurrence. For patients with a pathology report, the report's sensitivity to identify recurrence was 98.1% for breast cancer cases and 95.7% for colorectal cancer cases. The specific stage at recurrence from the pathology report had a moderate agreement with gold-standard data. CONCLUSIONS Pathology reports alone cannot measure population-based recurrence of solid cancers but can identify specific cohorts of recurrent cancer patients. As electronic submission of pathology reports increases, these reports may identify specific recurrent patients in near real-time.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joan L. Warren
- National Cancer Institute/Division of Cancer Control and Population Science, Bethesda, Maryland 20892
| | - Anne-Michelle Noone
- National Cancer Institute/Division of Cancer Control and Population Science, Bethesda, Maryland 20892
| | | | - Xiao-Cheng Wu
- Louisiana Tumor Registry, School of Public Health, Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center, New Orleans, Louisiana 70112
| | - Mei-chin Hseih
- Louisiana Tumor Registry, School of Public Health, Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center, New Orleans, Louisiana 70112
| | - Brent Mumphrey
- Louisiana Tumor Registry, School of Public Health, Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center, New Orleans, Louisiana 70112
| | | | - Linda Coyle
- Information Management Services, Calverton, Maryland 20705
| | - Rusty Shields
- Information Management Services, Calverton, Maryland 20705
| | - Angela B. Mariotto
- National Cancer Institute/Division of Cancer Control and Population Science, Bethesda, Maryland 20892
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Osterman E, Hammarström K, Imam I, Osterlund E, Sjöblom T, Glimelius B. Completeness and accuracy of the registration of recurrences in the Swedish Colorectal Cancer Registry (SCRCR) and an update of recurrence risk in colon cancer. Acta Oncol 2021; 60:842-849. [PMID: 33689551 DOI: 10.1080/0284186x.2021.1896033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/24/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The completeness and accuracy of the registration of synchronous metastases and recurrences in the Swedish Colorectal Cancer Registry has not been investigated. Knowing how accurate these parameters are in the registry is a prerequisite to adequately measure the current recurrence risk. METHODS All charts for patients diagnosed with stage I-III colorectal cancer (CRC) in two regions were reviewed. In one of the regions, all registrations of synchronous metastases were similarly investigated. After the database had been corrected, recurrence risk in colon cancer was calculated stratified by risk group as suggested by ESMO in 2020. RESULTS In patients operated upon more than five years ago (N = 1235), there were 20 (1.6%) recurrences not reported. In more recent patients, more recurrences were unreported (4.0%). Few synchronous metastases were wrongly registered (3.6%) and, likewise, few synchronous metastases were not registered (about 1%). The five-year recurrence risk in stage II was 6% for low-risk, 11% for intermediate risk, and 23% for high-risk colon cancer patients. In stage III, it was 25% in low- and 45% in high-risk patients. Incorporation of risk factors in stage III modified the risks substantially even if this is not considered by ESMO. Adjuvant chemotherapy lowered the risk in stage III but not to any relevant extent in stage II. CONCLUSION The registration of recurrences in the registry after 5 years is accurate to between 1 and 2% but less accurate earlier. A small number of unreported recurrences and falsely reported recurrences were discovered in the chart review. The recurrence risk in this validated and updated patient series matches what has been recently reported, except for the risk of recurrence in stage II low risk colon cancers which seem to be even a few percentage points lower (6 vs. 9%).
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Affiliation(s)
- Erik Osterman
- Department of Immunology, Genetics and Pathology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
- Department of Surgery, Region Gävleborg, Gävle Hospital, Gävle, Sweden
| | - Klara Hammarström
- Department of Immunology, Genetics and Pathology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Israa Imam
- Department of Immunology, Genetics and Pathology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Emerik Osterlund
- Department of Immunology, Genetics and Pathology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Tobias Sjöblom
- Department of Immunology, Genetics and Pathology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Bengt Glimelius
- Department of Immunology, Genetics and Pathology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
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Recurrence Risk after Radical Colorectal Cancer Surgery-Less Than before, But How High Is It? Cancers (Basel) 2020; 12:cancers12113308. [PMID: 33182510 PMCID: PMC7696064 DOI: 10.3390/cancers12113308] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2020] [Revised: 10/27/2020] [Accepted: 11/06/2020] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Simple Summary Evidence indicates that recurrence risk after colon cancer today is less than it was when trials performed decades ago showed that adjuvant chemotherapy reduces the risk and prolong disease-free and overall survival. After rectal cancer surgery, local recurrence rates have decreased but it is unclear if systemic recurrences have. After a systematic review of available literature reporting recurrence risks after curative colorectal cancer surgery we report that the risks are lower today than they were in the past and that this risk reduction is not solely ascribed to the use of adjuvant therapy. Adjuvant therapy always means overtreatment of many patients, already cured by the surgery. Fewer recurrences mean that progress in the care of these patients has happened but also that the present guidelines giving recommendations based upon old data must be adjusted. The relative gains from adding chemotherapy are not altered, but the absolute number of patients gaining is less. Abstract Adjuvant chemotherapy aims at eradicating tumour cells sometimes present after radical surgery for a colorectal cancer (CRC) and thereby diminish the recurrence rate and prolong time to recurrence (TTR). Remaining tumour cells will lead to recurrent disease that is usually fatal. Adjuvant therapy is administered based upon the estimated recurrence risk, which in turn defines the need for this treatment. This systematic overview aims at describing whether the need has decreased since trials showing that adjuvant chemotherapy provides benefits in colon cancer were performed decades ago. Thanks to other improvements than the administration of adjuvant chemotherapy, such as better staging, improved surgery, the use of radiotherapy and more careful pathology, recurrence risks have decreased. Methodological difficulties including intertrial comparisons decades apart and the present selective use of adjuvant therapy prevent an accurate estimate of the magnitude of the decreased need. Furthermore, most trials do not report recurrence rates or TTR, only disease-free and overall survival (DFS/OS). Fewer colon cancer patients, particularly in stage II but also in stage III, today display a sufficient need for adjuvant treatment considering the burden of treatment, especially when oxaliplatin is added. In rectal cancer, neo-adjuvant treatment will be increasingly used, diminishing the need for adjuvant treatment.
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