Incidence of late recurrence and second primary cancers 5-10 years after non-metastatic colorectal cancer

The fraction of patients who are cancer-free survivors 5 years after curative-intended surgery for colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing, suggesting that extending surveillance beyond 5 years may be indicated. Here we estimate the incidence of late recurrence, metachronous CRC, and second primary cancers 5-10 years postoperative. All patients resected for UICC stage I-III CRC in Denmark through 2004-2013 were identified. Through individual-level linkage of nationwide health registry data, recurrence status was determined using a validated algorithm. Cancer-free survivors 5 years after surgery, were included. Cumulative incidence functions (CIF) of late recurrence, metachronous CRC, and second primary cancer 5-10 years postoperative were constructed. Subdistribution hazards ratios (sHR) were computed using Fine-Gray regression. Among 8883 patients, 370 developed late recurrence (5-10-year CIF = 4.1%, 95%CI: 3.7%-4.6%), 270 metachronous CRC (5-10-year CIF = 3.0%, 95%CI: 2.7%-3.4%), and 635 a second primary cancer (5-10-year CIF = 7.2%, 95%CI: 6.7%-7.7%). The risk of late recurrence was reduced for patients operated in 2009-2013 compared to 2004-2008 (2.9% vs. 5.6%, sHR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.42-0.65). The risk of metachronous CRC was likewise reduced from 4.1% to 2.1% (sHR = 0.50, 95%CI: 0.39-0.65). While the risk of second primary cancer did not change between 2009-2013 and 2004-2008 (7.1% vs. 7.1%, sHR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.84-1.15). Using nation-wide 10-year follow-up data, we document that the incidences of late recurrence and metachronous CRC are low and decreasing from 2004 to 2013. Thus, despite increasing numbers of long-term cancer survivors, the data do not advocate for extending CRC-specific surveillance beyond 5 years.

Prior Appendectomy Is Associated With a Milder Clinical Course in Crohn's Disease: A Nationwide Population-based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Appendectomy may affect the clinical course of Crohn's disease (CD), but rigorous evidence is sparse and contradicting. The aim of this study was to examine the association between appendectomy and the clinical course of CD.

METHODS

All patients diagnosed with CD in Denmark in the period from 1977 to 2017 were identified from the Danish National Patient Registry. Patients with appendectomy were matched with up to 10 comparators with CD and no appendectomy; and rates of CD-related hospital admissions were compared between CD patients with and without appendectomy using incidence rate ratios (IRRs). We used stratified Cox regression analysis to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of initiating treatment with biologics or undergoing intestinal resections.

RESULTS

In all, 21 189 CD patients (1936 with appendectomy and 19 253 without) were identified and followed for a median of 13.6 years. Crohn's disease patients who had undergone appendectomy experienced a lower rate of CD-related hospital admissions (appendectomy before CD: IRR = 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.81-0.85; appendectomy after CD: IRR = 0.85; 95% CI, 0.81-0.88) compared with CD patients without appendectomy. For patients with appendectomy before CD diagnosis, the rate of initiating biologics was lower compared with CD patients with no appendectomy (aHR1-<5 years = 0.61; 95% CI, 0.46-0.81; aHR5-<10 years 0.47; 95% CI, 0.33-0.66; aHR10-20 years = 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47-0.79), as was the risk of undergoing colorectal resections (aHR1-<5 years = 0.94; 95% CI, 0.77-1.15; aHR5-<10 years 0.63; 95% CI, 0.47-0.85; aHR10-20 years = 0.75; 95% CI, 0.54-1.04). Rates of small bowel resections were comparable for CD patients with or without appendectomy prior to CD. Appendectomy performed after CD did not influence the rate of initiating treatment with biologics or undergoing intestinal resections.

CONCLUSION

The clinical course of CD is milder for those who have previously undergone appendectomy.

Diverticular disease and risk of dementia: a Danish population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Patients with diverticular disease (DD) have ongoing chronic inflammation associated with changes in the gut microbiome, which might contribute to the development of dementia.

METHODS

Using Danish medical and administrative registries from 1980 to 2013, we conducted a nationwide population-based cohort study including all DD patients and a matched (5:1) general population comparison cohort without DD. A nested case-control analysis was then conducted using a risk set sampling, matching four DD controls without dementia to each DD patient with dementia. Clinical severity was categorized as uncomplicated DD (outpatient), conservatively treated DD (inpatient), and surgically treated DD.

RESULTS

149 527 DD patients and 747 635 general population comparators were identified. The 30-year cumulative incidence of dementia among DD patients and general population comparators were 12.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] 12.1-12.7) and 13.73% (95% CI 13.6-13.9), respectively. This corresponded to a 30-year hazard ratio (HR) of 1.10 (95% CI 1.1-1.1). The highest HRs were found in the conservatively treated DD group (1.15 95% CI 1.1-1.2) and the group with young onset of DD (1.52 95% CI 1.2-2.0). In the nested case-control analysis, we identified 8875 dementia cases and 35 491 matched controls. The adjusted odds ratio (OR) for conservatively treated DD was increased (1.08, 95% CI; 1.0-1.2) compared to the reference of uncomplicated DD.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed a slight increased risk of dementia in patients with young onset DD and conservatively treated DD. Findings suggest an association between disease duration, perhaps reflecting the duration of gut inflammation, and the risk of developing dementia.

Risk of Cancer in Patients With Diverticular Disease: A Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Several studies have investigated the association between diverticular disease (DD) and colorectal cancer. However, whether there is an association between DD and malignancies other than those in the colorectum remains uncertain.

METHODS

For the 1978-2019 period, we conducted a nationwide, population-based cohort study using national Danish health care data. We followed patients with DD for up to 20 years, beginning 1 year after the date of DD diagnosis until the first occurrence of incident cancer, emigration, death, 20 years of follow-up, or December 31, 2019. We calculated cumulative incidence proportions of cancer and standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) comparing cancer incidence among patients with DD with that in the general population.

RESULTS

We identified 200,639 patients with DD, of whom 20,498 were diagnosed with cancer during the 1-20 years after their DD diagnosis. The SIRs were increased for most cancer sites except for those in the colorectum (SIR, 0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.78). The highest SIRs were observed for cancers of the lung, bronchi, and trachea (SIR, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-1.24) and kidney (SIR, 1.27; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-1.39).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings show an increased long-term relative risk of cancer following a diagnosis of DD. These findings are likely caused by prevalence of numerous risk factors in patients with DD that confer an increased risk of cancer. The decreased relative risk of colorectal cancer might be explained by an increased likelihood of patients with DD undergoing colonoscopy with polypectomy.

Risk of a post-colonoscopy colorectal cancer in patients with diverticular disease: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

Post-colonoscopy colorectal cancers (PCCRCs) may account for up to 30% of all colorectal cancers (CRCs) diagnosed in patients with diverticular disease (DD); however, the absolute and relative risks of PCCRC among DD patients undergoing colonoscopy remain unknown.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We performed a cohort study (1995-2015) including DD and non-DD patients undergoing colonoscopy. We calculated 7-36-month cumulative incidence proportions (CIPs) of PCCRC. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to compute hazard ratios (HRs) of PCCRC comparing DD with non-DD patients undergoing colonoscopy, as a measure of relative risk. Finally, we calculated 3-year PCCRC rates, as recommended by the World Endoscopy Organization, to estimate the proportion of DD and non-DD patients with CRC who experience a PCCRC. We stratified all analyses by site of PCCRC.

RESULTS

We observed 373 PCCRC cases among 56,642 DD patients and 1,536 PCCRC cases among 306,800 non-DD patients. The CIP of PCCRC after a first-time colonoscopy was 0.45% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.40%-0.51%) for DD patients and 0.36% (95% CI [0.34%-0.38%]) for non-DD patients. Comparing DD with non-DD patients, the adjusted HR of PCCRC after a first-time colonoscopy was 0.84 (95% CI [ 0.73-0.97]) while the corresponding HR of proximal PCCRCs was 1.23 (95% [CI: 1.01-1.50]). The 3-year PCCRC rate was 19.0% for DD patients (22% for proximal PCCRC location) and 6.5% for non-DD patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the absolute risk was low, the relative risk of proximal PCCRCs may be elevated in patients with DD undergoing colonoscopy compared with non-DD patients.

Incidence of Recurrence and Time to Recurrence in Stage I to III Colorectal Cancer: A Nationwide Danish Cohort Study

Importance

Management of colorectal cancer (CRC) has been updated continuously over the past 2 decades. While the combination of these initiatives has had implications for improved survival, the implications for rates of recurrence remain unexplored.

Objective

To ascertain the rates of recurrence and describe time to recurrence within 5 years of surgery with curative intent for stages I to III CRC.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used the Danish Colorectal Cancer Group Database to identify patients with Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) stages I to III CRC who underwent primary surgery between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2019. They were followed up until recurrence (event), death (competing event), diagnosis of a second cancer (competing event), emigration (censoring event), 5 years postoperatively (censoring event), or January 1, 2023 (censoring event), whichever came first. Recurrence status was ascertained through individual-level linked data from the Danish Cancer Registry, Danish National Patient Registry, and Danish Pathology Registry using a validated algorithm. Data were analyzed from January 1 to August 8, 2023.

Exposure

Primary surgery performed during 3 calendar periods (2004-2008, 2009-2013, and 2014-2019) stratified by tumor site (colon or rectum) and UICC stage (I, II, and III).

Main Outcomes and Measures

Stage-specific 5-year recurrence reported as the cumulative incidence function (CIF) of recurrence, the association between calendar period of primary surgery and recurrence risk reported as subdistribution hazard ratios (sHRs), and the time from surgery to recurrence.

Results

Of the 34 166 patients with UICC stages I to III CRC (median [IQR] age, 70 [62-77] years); 18 552 males [54.3%]) included in the study, 7027 developed recurrence within 5 years after the primary surgery. For colon cancer, the 5-year CIF of recurrence decreased over the 3 calendar periods from 16.3% to 6.8% for UICC stage I, from 21.9% to 11.6% for UICC stage II, and from 35.3% to 24.6% for UICC stage III colon cancer. For rectal cancer, the 5-year CIF decreased over the 3 periods from 19.9% to 9.5% for stage I, from 25.8% to 18.4% for stage II, and from 38.7% to 28.8% for stage III disease. Patients with stage III disease had a shorter time from surgery to recurrence compared with those with stage I disease (time ratio stage III vs stage I = 0.30; 95% CI, 0.28-0.32). Cancers detected through screening were associated with lower stage-adjusted risks of recurrence (sHR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.73-0.91) compared with cancers not detected through screening.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort of patients with CRC, the risk of recurrence decreased in patients with stages I to III disease during the study period. Cancer detection by screening was associated with an even lower risk of recurrence. Time to recurrence differed according to UICC stage. Because the risk of recurrence was so low in selected patient groups, future research is warranted to explore risk-stratified surveillance protocols in patients with CRC.

Maternal and Infant Antibiotic and Acid Suppressant Use and Risk of Eosinophilic Esophagitis

Importance

Eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE), a chronic disease with significant patient and health care burden, has increased rapidly in incidence across many countries. Elucidating risk factors for disease development is a priority for health care practitioners and patients.

Objective

To evaluate the association of maternal and infant use of antibiotics and acid suppressants with the development of EoE.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a population-based, case-control study of pediatric EoE (1996-2019) in Denmark using pathology, prescription, birth, inpatient, and outpatient health registry data and with complete ascertainment of all EoE cases among Danish residents born between 1997 and 2018. Study data were analyzed from September 2020 to August 2023.

Exposures

Maternal and infant use of antibiotics and acid suppressants, examining medication class, timing, and frequency of use.

Main Outcome and Measure

Development of EoE.

Results

Included in the study was a total of 392 cases and 3637 sex- and year of birth-matched controls with a median (IQR) age of 11.0 (6.0-15.0) years, 2772 male individuals (68.8%), and 1257 female individuals (31.2%). Compared with children with no antibiotic prescriptions filled during infancy, those with any use of an antibiotic had an associated 40% increase in risk of EoE (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.7). Those with 3 or more prescriptions had an associated 80% increase in risk of EoE (aOR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.3-2.5). Frequency of maternal antibiotic use was associated with an increased risk (1 prescription: aOR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0-1.8; 3≤ prescriptions: aOR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.4-3.2). Risk was highest for use in the third trimester and in the first 6 months from birth. Any acid suppressant use in infancy was associated with increased risk of EoE (aOR, 15.9; 95% CI, 9.1-27.7). Restriction of cases to those diagnosed at 5 years or older yielded similar results (aOR, 11.6; 95% CI, 5.5-24.8). For maternal use, 3 or more prescriptions were associated with an increased risk of EoE for her offspring (aOR, 5.1; 95% CI, 1.8-14.8).

Conclusions and Relevance

Maternal and infant antibiotic use were associated with increased risk of developing EoE, in a dose-response manner, and the magnitude of association was highest for exposure near the time of delivery. Increased risk was also observed with maternal and infant acid suppressant use. Exposure during early life, a period of known developmental susceptibility, may confer the greatest risk and opportunity for risk mitigation.

Increased Cancer Risk in Patients with Kidney Disease and Venous Thromboembolism: A Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

 Venous thromboembolism (VTE) may be a harbinger of cancer in the general population. Patients with kidney disease have an a priori increased VTE risk. However, it remains unknown how a VTE affects subsequent cancer risk in these patients.

OBJECTIVES

 To examine the cancer risk in patients with kidney disease following a VTE.

METHODS

 We conducted a nationwide population-based cohort study in Denmark (1996-2017), including all VTE patients with a diagnosis of kidney disease. We calculated absolute risks of cancer (accounting for competing risk of death) and age-, sex-, and calendar-period standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) comparing the observed cancer incidence with national cancer incidence rates and cancer incidence rates of VTE patients without kidney disease.

RESULTS

 We followed 3,362 VTE patients with kidney disease (45.9% females) for a median follow-up time of 2.4 years (interquartile range: 0.6-5.4). During follow-up, 464 patients were diagnosed with cancer, of whom 169 (36.4%) were diagnosed within the first year. The 1-year absolute risk of any cancer was 5.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.3-5.8), with a SIR of 2.9 (95% CI: 2.5-3.4) when compared with the general population, and 2.0 (95% CI: 1.8-2.4) when compared with VTE patients without kidney disease. During subsequent years of follow-up, the SIRs declined to 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3-1.6) when compared with the general population, and 1.1 (95% CI: 0.9-1.2) compared with VTE patients without kidney disease.

CONCLUSION

 Patients with hospital-diagnosed kidney disease have increased cancer risk after VTE, especially within the first year following the VTE diagnosis.

Increasing Risk of Lymphoma Over Time in Crohn's Disease but Not in Ulcerative Colitis: A Scandinavian Cohort Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Earlier studies have provided varying risk estimates for lymphoma in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), but often have been limited by detection biases (especially during the first year of follow-up evaluation), misclassification, and small sample size; and rarely reflect modern-day management of IBD.

METHODS

We performed a binational register-based cohort study (Sweden and Denmark) from 1969 to 2019. We compared 164,716 patients with IBD with 1,639,027 matched general population reference individuals. Cox regression estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for incident lymphoma by lymphoma subtype, excluding the first year of follow-up evaluation.

RESULTS

From 1969 to 2019, 258 patients with Crohn's disease (CD), 479 patients with ulcerative colitis (UC), and 6675 matched reference individuals developed lymphoma. This corresponded to incidence rates of 35 (CD) and 34 (UC) per 100,000 person-years in IBD patients, compared with 28 and 33 per 100,000 person-years in their matched reference individuals. Although both CD (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.16-1.50) and UC (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.00-1.20) were associated with an increase in lymphoma, the 10-year cumulative incidence difference was low even in CD patients (0.08%; 95% CI, 0.02-0.13). HRs have increased in the past 2 decades, corresponding to increasing use of immunomodulators and biologics during the same time period. HRs were increased for aggressive B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma in CD and UC patients, and for T-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma in CD patients. Although the highest HRs were observed in patients exposed to combination therapy (immunomodulators and biologics) or second-line biologics, we also found increased HRs in patients naïve to such drugs.

CONCLUSIONS

During the past 20 years, the risk of lymphomas have increased in CD, but not in UC, and were driven mainly by T-cell lymphomas and aggressive B-cell lymphomas.

Root-cause Analysis of 762 Danish Post-colonoscopy Colorectal Cancer Patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The term post-colonoscopy colorectal cancer (PCCRC) refers to colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnosed after a negative colonoscopy. Using the root-cause algorithm proposed by the World Endoscopy Organization, we aimed to investigate plausible explanations for PCCRCs and potential changes in plausible explanations for PCCRCs over time in a Danish Region.

METHODS

During 1995 to 2021, we used national health registries and electronic medical records in the Central Denmark Region to identify PCCRC cases, defined as CRCs recorded within 6 to 48 months after a colonoscopy. We then applied the World Endoscopy Organization algorithm to categorize explanations for PCCRC as follows: (A) possible missed lesion, prior examination adequate; (B) possible missed lesion, prior examination inadequate; (C) detected lesion, not resected; or (D) likely incomplete resection of previously identified lesion. PCCRCs were identified before (1995-2013) and after (2014-2021) implementation of nationwide fecal immunochemical test-based CRC screening and quality indicators for colonoscopy.

RESULTS

We identified 762 PCCRCs, 53.5% among males and 57% among individuals ≥70 years. Forty-five percent were located in the proximal colon. We identified 616 (80.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 74.6%-87.5%) category A PCCRCs; 36 (4.7%; 95% CI, 3.3%-6.5%) category B PCCRCs; 26 (3.4%; 95% CI, 2.2%-4.9%) category C PCCRCs; and 84 (11%; 95% CI, 8.8%-13.6%) category D PCCRCs. Similar patterns were observed during the early (1995-2013) and late (2014-2021) study periods.

CONCLUSIONS

Most PCCRCs originate from possible missed lesions and incompletely resected lesions during the complete study period. These findings indicate the importance of quality assurance of colonoscopy procedures and polypectomy techniques.

Short-term outcomes following total colectomy for inflammatory bowel disease in Denmark after implementation of laparoscopy: a nationwide population-based study

AIM

A laparoscopic approach to total colectomy (TC) for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is being increasingly used, but data on its comparative benefits over open TC are conflicting. The aim of this study was to examine 90-day outcomes following laparoscopic and open TC for IBD in a nationwide cohort after the introduction of laparoscopy.

METHOD

IBD patients undergoing TC in Denmark from 2005 to 2017 were identified from the Danish National Patient Registry. We used Kaplan-Meier methodology to estimate mortality and Cox regression analysis to estimate adjusted mortality rate ratios (aMRRs) and adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of reoperation, readmission and intensive care unit (ICU) transfer, comparing patients undergoing laparoscopic versus open TC.

RESULTS

We identified 1095 patients undergoing laparoscopic TC and 1523 patients undergoing open TC. Following emergency TC, 90-day mortality was 2.8% (1.6%-4.9%) after laparoscopic TC and 9.1% (7.0%-11.8%) after open TC. Ninety-day mortality was 0.9% (0.3%-2.5%) after laparoscopic TC and 2.6% (1.5%-4.3%) after open elective TC. The aMRRs associated with laparoscopic TC were 0.45 (95% CI 0.25-0.80) in emergency cases and 0.29 (95% CI 0.10-0.86) in elective cases. Risks of readmission were comparable following laparoscopic versus open TC, both in emergency [aHR = 0.93 (95% CI 0.76-1.15)] and elective [aHR = 0.83 (95% CI 0.68-1.02)] cases, while risks of ICU transfer and reoperation were lower following laparoscopic TC, both in emergency cases [aHR = 0.53 (95% CI 0.35-0.82) and aHR = 0.26 (95% CI 0.15-0.47)] and elective [aHR = 0.58 (95% CI 0.35-0.95) and aHR = 0.37 (95% CI 0.21-0.66)] cases.

CONCLUSION

The introduction of laparoscopic TC for IBD in Denmark was not associated with increased mortality or morbidity. In fact, laparoscopic TC for IBD may be associated with lower short-term mortality and morbidity compared with open TC.

Effect of a FIT-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening Program on Mortality Estimated by the Regression Discontinuity Design

The fecal immunochemical test (FIT) has been implemented in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs, but effect evaluations are lacking. We evaluated the effect of a positive FIT on all-cause and CRC mortality using the regression discontinuity design. The Danish CRC screening program invites all residents 50-74 years old, using a 20-μg hemoglobin/g feces cutoff for colonoscopy referral. In this cohort study, we followed all first-time screening participants from 2014-2019 until 2020. We estimated the local effect of screening results, of just above the cutoff vs. just below, as hazard ratios (HRs) between models fitted at each side of the cutoff. We conducted the analysis within a narrow hemoglobin range (≥17 and <23, n = 16,428) and a wider range (≥14 and <26, n = 35,353). Those screened just above the cutoff had lower all-cause mortality compared with below (HR = 0.87, 95% confidence interval: 0.69; 1.10), estimated from the narrow range. The CRC mortality analysis had few outcomes. In the wider range, those with a FIT just above the cutoff had a lower hazard of CRC mortality compared with just below the cutoff (HR = 0.49, 95% confidence interval: 0.17; 1.41). A FIT result just above the cutoff, leading to referral to colonoscopy, pointed towards reduced all-cause and CRC mortality compared with just below the cutoff.

Prenatal, Intrapartum, and Neonatal Factors Increase the Risk of Eosinophilic Esophagitis

INTRODUCTION

Early-life exposures have been associated with an increased risk of eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE); however, most studies to date have been conducted at referral centers and are subject to recall bias. By contrast, we conducted a nationwide, population-based and registry-based case-control study of prenatal, intrapartum, and neonatal exposures, using data collected prospectively through population-based Danish health and administrative registries.

METHODS

We ascertained all EoE cases in Denmark (birth years 1997-2018). Cases were sex and age matched to controls (1:10) using risk-set sampling. We obtained data on prenatal, intrapartum, and neonatal factors, i.e., pregnancy complications, mode of delivery, gestational age at delivery, birthweight (expressed as a z-score), and neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admission. We used conditional logistic regression to compute the crude and adjusted odds ratios (aOR) of EoE in relation to each prenatal, intrapartum, and neonatal factor, thus providing an estimate of incidence density ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

In the 393 cases and 3,659 population controls included (median age at index date, 11 years [interquartile range, 6-15]; 69% male), we observed an association between gestational age and EoE, peaking at 33 vs 40 weeks (aOR 3.6 [95% CI 1.8-7.4]), and between NICU admission and EoE (aOR 2.8 [95% CI 1.2-6.6], for a NICU hospitalization of 2-3 weeks vs no admission). In interaction analyses, we observed a stronger association between NICU admission and EoE in infants born at term than in preterm infants (aOR 2.0 [95% CI 1.4-2.9] for term infants and aOR 1.0 [95% CI 0.5-2.0] for preterm infants). We also observed an association between pregnancy complications and EoE (aOR 1.4 [95% CI 1.0-1.9]). Infants who were very growth restricted at birth had an increased rate of EoE (aOR 1.4 [95% CI: 1.0-1.9] for a z-score of -1.5 vs a z-score of 0). Mode of delivery was not associated with EoE.

DISCUSSION

Prenatal, intrapartum, and neonatal factors, particularly preterm birth and NICU admission, were associated with development of EoE. Further research is needed to elucidate the mechanisms underlying the observed associations.

Appendectomy and Risk of Advanced Colorectal Neoplasia in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Nationwide Population-based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to examine the association between appendectomy and advanced colorectal neoplasia (aCRN) in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).

METHODS

Inflammatory bowel disease patients diagnosed in Denmark in the period 1977 to 2017 were identified from the Danish National Patient Registry. Inflammatory bowel disease patients who underwent appendectomy were matched with up to 10 IBD patients without appendectomy and followed until aCRN, death, or emigration. Absolute risks of aCRN were calculated, treating death and bowel resections as competing risks. Stratified Cox regression was used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of aCRN, comparing IBD patients with appendectomy to IBD patients without appendectomy.

RESULTS

We identified 3789 IBD patients with appendectomy and 37 676 IBD patients without appendectomy. A total of 573 patients (1.4%) developed aCRN, with an absolute risk of aCRN at 20 years of 4.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.9%-7.7%) for ulcerative colitis (UC) patients with appendectomy after UC diagnosis compared with 2.8% (95% CI, 2.3%-3.3%) for UC patients without appendectomy. Appendectomy after UC was associated with an increased rate of aCRN 5 to 10 years (aHR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.1-5.5) and 10 to 20 years after appendectomy (aHR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.0-5.5). Appendectomy prior to UC diagnosis was not associated with an increased rate of aCRN, and Crohn's disease was not associated with the rate of aCRN, regardless of timing or histological diagnosis of the appendix specimen.

CONCLUSIONS

Although appendectomy may have a positive effect on the clinical course of UC, our study suggests that this may come at the expense of a higher risk of aCRN.

Mental disorders, participation, and trajectories in the Danish colorectal cancer programme: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

People with mental disorders exhibit increased mortality due to colorectal cancer, despite having a similar incidence to the general population. We aimed to evaluate the extent to which people with mental disorders participate in organised colorectal cancer screening.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based cohort study of all Danish residents aged 50-74 years who were invited to undergo biennial faecal immunochemical testing between March 1, 2014, and Sept 30, 2018. We used national registry data from all first-time invitees. The primary endpoint was participation within 90 days of invitation. We calculated the proportion who participated and assessed their screening results and adherence to and completeness of follow-up colonoscopy according to their history of mental disorders, classified as none, mild or moderate, or severe. We computed crude and adjusted participation differences in percentage points and participation ratios using the pseudo-observations method.

FINDINGS

Of 2 036 704 people who were invited, we included 2 036 352 in the final cohort, of whom 1 008 045 (49·5%) were men and 1 028 307 (50·5%) were women, with a mean age of 60·7 years (SD 8·3, range 49-78). Data on ethnicity were not collected. Compared with people with no mental disorders, the adjusted analysis showed lower participation among people with mild or moderate mental disorders (men: participation difference -4·4 percentage points [95% CI -4·7 to -4·1]; women: -3·8 percentage points [-4·1 to -3·6]) and severe mental disorders (men: participation difference -13·8 percentage points [-14·3 to -13·3]; women: -15·4 percentage points [-15·8 to -14·9]). People with mental disorders had a higher proportion of positive faecal immunochemical test results, lower adherence to colonoscopy, and more incomplete colonoscopies than people without mental disorders.

INTERPRETATION

People with mental disorders were less likely to participate in colorectal cancer screening than those without these disorders. Patients with mental disorders could benefit from support or encouragement from their general practitioner or mental health-care facility to participate in cancer screening. Potential interventions should consider type of mental disorder, as needs might differ.

FUNDING

Danish Cancer Society, Danish Health Foundation.

Validity of the coding for appendicitis, appendectomy, and diagnostic laparoscopy in the Danish National Patient Registry

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

We aimed to validate the diagnostic accuracy of appendicitis, its severity, its description, and the surgical approach, including open or laparoscopic appendectomy and diagnostic laparoscopy, in the Danish National Patient Registry (DNPR) against information from the electronic medical records.

METHODS

A random sample of 1046 patients of all ages and sexes recorded in the DNPR from the Capital Region of Denmark during 2010-2015 was investigated. Patients' admission had to include a discharge code for appendicitis (K35-K379) according to the International Classification of Disease version 10 (ICD-10) alone or in combination with a surgical code for appendectomy or the surgical code for a diagnostic laparoscopy. We calculated the positive predictive values (PPVs) with 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

Data from a total of 1018 patients were available for data analysis. The ICD-10 codes for appendicitis resulted in a good PPV of >95% when combined with a surgical code. ICD-10 codes combined with the surgical codes could discriminate between uncomplicated and complicated appendicitis with some caution as the PPVs ranged from 68% to 93%. Only the surgical code for laparoscopic appendectomy yielded a good PPV (99%) for the actual surgical approach. The surgical code for a diagnostic laparoscopy alone did not cover a normal diagnostic laparoscopy.

CONCLUSIONS

The diagnostic accuracy of appendicitis and appendectomy in routinely collected administrative health data is good for ICD-10 codes for appendicitis in combination with a surgical code and especially for laparoscopic appendectomy. Uncomplicated and complicated appendicitis can be distinguished with some caution.

Risk of incisional hernia repair in patients with inflammatory bowel disease

AIM

Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) may undergo several abdominal surgeries with a risk of incisional hernia repair (IHR). The objectives of this study were to establish the risk of IHR and to analyse predictors of IHR after a first-time abdominal surgery for IBD.

METHOD

This Danish nationwide register-based cohort study (1996-2018) followed IBD patients from index operation until the date of IHR. The absolute risk was calculated as the cumulative incidence proportion treating death as a competing risk. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to compare the risk of IHR among different subtypes of IBD and to explore predictors of IHR. IBD subtypes were classified as ulcerative colitis (UC), Crohn's disease (CD) or unclassified IBD (IBD-U).

RESULTS

In total, 10 130 patients with IBD (UC 3911 [39%]; CD 4210 [41%]; IBD-U 2009 [20%]) underwent either an open or a laparoscopic index operation. The 10-year cumulative incidence of IHR varied between 5.0% and 6.3%, with a significantly higher risk in patients with UC and IBD-U. Patients with UC (75.9%) and IBD-U (91.9%) had more (two or more) abdominal surgeries in the follow-up period compared with CD (51.9%). The risk of IHR increased dramatically with the number of surgeries, although not as markedly if a laparoscopic approach was used. Male sex, age, comorbidity, fascial dehiscence, wound infection and presence of stoma were predictors of IHR for patients with IBD.

CONCLUSION

The long-term risk of IHR was roughly 5%-6%, with a higher risk in patients with UC and IBD-U. Open surgical approach and number of previous surgeries were, among other things, important predictors of IHR.

Identifying Recurrences Among Non-Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients Using National Health Data Registries: Validation and Optimization of a Registry-Based Algorithm in a Modern Danish Cohort

Purpose

Colorectal cancer (CRC) recurrence is not routinely recorded in Danish health data registries. Here, we aimed to revalidate a registry-based algorithm to identify recurrences in a contemporary cohort and to investigate the accuracy of estimating the time to recurrence (TTR).

Patients and Methods

We ascertained data on 1129 patients operated for UICC TNM stage I-III CRC during 2012-2017 registered in the CRC biobank at the Department of Molecular Medicine, Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark. Individual-level data were linked with data from the Danish Colorectal Cancer Group database, Danish Cancer Registry, Danish National Registry of Patients, and Danish Pathology Registry. The algorithm identified recurrence based on diagnosis codes of local recurrence or metastases, the receipt of chemotherapy, or a pathological tissue assessment code of recurrence more than 180 days after CRC surgery. A subgroup was selected for validation of the algorithm using medical record reviews as a reference standard.

Results

We found a 3-year cumulative recurrence rate of 20% (95% CI: 17-22%). Manual medical record review identified 80 recurrences in the validation cohort of 522 patients. The algorithm detected recurrence with 94% sensitivity (75/80; 95% CI: 86-98%) and 98% specificity (431/442; 95% CI: 96-99%). The positive and negative predictive values of the algorithm were 87% (95% CI: 78-93%) and 99% (95% CI: 97-100%), respectively. The median difference in TTR (TTR_{Medical_chart}-TTR_algorithm) was -8 days (IQR: -21 to +3 days). Restricting the algorithm to chemotherapy codes from oncology departments increased the positive predictive value from 87% to 94% without changing the negative predictive value (99%).

Conclusion

The algorithm detected recurrence and TTR with high precision in this contemporary cohort. Restriction to chemotherapy codes from oncology departments using department classifications improves the algorithm. The algorithm is suitable for use in future observational studies.

Rates of repeated colonoscopies to clean the colon from low-risk and high-risk adenomas: results from the EPoS trials

OBJECTIVE

High-quality colonoscopy (adequate bowel preparation, whole-colon visualisation and removal of all neoplastic polyps) is a prerequisite to start polyp surveillance, and is ideally achieved in one colonoscopy. In a large multinational polyp surveillance trial, we aimed to investigate clinical practice variation in number of colonoscopies needed to enrol patients with low-risk and high-risk adenomas in polyp surveillance.

DESIGN

We retrieved data of all patients with low-risk adenomas (one or two tubular adenomas <10 mm with low-grade dysplasia) and high-risk adenomas (3-10 adenomas, ≥1 adenoma ≥10 mm, high-grade dysplasia or villous components) in the European Polyp Surveillance trials fulfilling certain logistic and methodologic criteria. We analysed variations in number of colonoscopies needed to achieve high-quality colonoscopy and enter polyp surveillance by endoscopy centre, and by endoscopists who enrolled ≥30 patients.

RESULTS

The study comprised 15 581 patients from 38 endoscopy centres in five European countries; 6794 patients had low-risk and 8787 had high-risk adenomas. 961 patients (6.2%, 95% CI 5.8% to 6.6%) underwent two or more colonoscopies before surveillance began; 101 (1.5%, 95% CI 1.2% to 1.8%) in the low-risk group and 860 (9.8%, 95% CI 9.2% to 10.4%) in the high-risk group. Main reasons were poor bowel preparation (21.3%) or incomplete colonoscopy/polypectomy (14.4%) or planned second procedure (27.8%). Need of repeat colonoscopy varied between study centres ranging from 0% to 11.8% in low-risk adenoma patients and from 0% to 63.9% in high-risk adenoma patients. On the second colonoscopy, the two most common reasons for a repeat (third) colonoscopy were piecemeal resection (26.5%) and unspecified reason (23.9%).

CONCLUSION

There is considerable practice variation in the number of colonoscopies performed to achieve complete polyp removal, indicating need for targeted quality improvement to reduce patient burden.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02319928.

Mental illness and participation in colorectal cancer screening: a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Compared with the background population, persons with mental illness have increased colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality. Screening has the potential to alleviate the increased cancer mortality due to mental illness, but the extent to which persons with mental illness participate in CRC screening programs is uncertain. This scoping review aims to summarize the literature on CRC screening participation among persons with mental illness.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We searched four databases (PubMed, PsychInfo, Embase, and the Cochrane Library) to identify published literature on mental illness and participation in CRC screening programs. We included full-text papers available in English, published before February 2021, and excluded papers on dementia, intellectual disabilities, and developmental disabilities.

RESULTS

In total, we included 17 studies and categorized the findings according to severity of mental illness. Across varying study designs, the studies found that persons with severe mental illness, e.g. schizophrenia, participate less in CRC screening compared with the background population. The results were ambiguous for common mental illness, such as depression and anxiety. In general, studies were small or lacked comparison groups and the estimates were imprecise.

CONCLUSION

This is the first scoping review to evaluate participation in CRC screening programs among persons with mental illness. Overall, the existing literature lacks high quality evidence from large population-based studies and comparison groups based on organized screening programs.

Colorectal cancer in elderly-onset inflammatory bowel disease: a 1969-2017 Scandinavian register-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Previous research indicates that the increased relative risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is limited to young-onset IBD.

AIM

To estimate risks of incident CRC and death from CRC in elderly-onset IBD METHODS: Patients diagnosed with IBD at age ≥ 60 years between 1969 and 2017 were identified using Danish and Swedish National Patient Registers and histopathology data. We linked data to Cancer and Causes of Death Registers and used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for CRC diagnosis and death compared to matched (by sex, age, and region) IBD-free individuals.

RESULTS

Among 7869 patients with Crohn's disease followed for 54,220 person-years, and 21,224 patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) followed for 142,635 person-years, 2.10% and 1.90% were diagnosed with CRC, compared to 2.26% and 2.34% of reference individuals (median follow-up 6 and 7 years). The incidence of CRC was elevated during the first year after IBD diagnosis: 4.36 (95% CI = 3.33-5.71) in Crohn's disease and 2.48 (95% CI = 2.03-3.02) in UC, but decreased after the first year of follow-up: 0.69 (95% CI = 0.56-0.86) and 0.78 (95% CI = 0.69-0.88). Once diagnosed with CRC, the risk of CRC death was similar for IBD patients and the general population.

CONCLUSION

The excess risk of CRC in elderly-onset IBD was probably due to bias and not observed beyond the first year. From 2010, the HR for CRC diagnosis more than 1 year after initial IBD diagnosis was lower than in the largely unscreened reference population, supporting the benefit of endoscopic screening and surveillance in patients with IBD.

Risk of dementia in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: a Danish population-based study

BACKGROUND

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) may be associated with increased dementia risk, but the literature is conflicting.

AIM

To investigate dementia risk in patients with IBD.

METHODS

We conducted a nationwide population-based cohort study in Denmark (1977-2018) including all patients with incident IBD matched with up to 10 general population comparators without IBD by sex, year of birth and region of residence. We calculated cumulative incidence proportions (CIPs) of dementia treating death as a competing risk, and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) comparing IBD patients with matched comparisons. In a nested case-control analysis, we investigated the impact of IBD severity, steroid use, colorectal and small bowel surgery, and healthcare system contacts on dementia risk.

RESULTS

Of 88,985 patients with IBD (69.6% with ulcerative colitis [UC], 30.4% with Crohn's disease [CD]) and 884,108 comparisons, 2076 patients (78.1% with UC) and 23,011 comparisons (76.6% UC comparisons) developed dementia. The 40-year CIP of all-cause dementia was 7.2% for UC patients and 5.8% for CD patients. UC patients had a slightly increased HR of all-cause dementia (HR = 1.07 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01;1.12]) and Alzheimer's disease (HR = 1.10 [95% CI: 1.01-1.19]). CD patients had an increased HR of all-cause dementia (HR = 1.15 [95% CI: 1.05-1.27]) and frontotemporal dementia (HR = 2.70 [95% CI: 1.44-5.05]). Dementia in IBD patients was associated with frequent healthcare system contacts.

CONCLUSIONS

UC and CD are associated with slightly increased all-cause dementia risk, particularly frontotemporal dementia in CD patients. Frequent healthcare system contacts by patients with IBD and detection bias may play a role in the association.

Venous Thromboembolism and Risk of Cancer in Users of Low-Dose Aspirin: A Danish Population-Based Cohort Study

Background  Aspirin may reduce the risk of cancer, particularly gastrointestinal cancer, and venous thromboembolism (VTE). VTE can be the first symptom of occult cancer, but whether it is also a marker of occult cancer in aspirin users remains unknown. Therefore, we investigated the risk of cancer subsequent to VTE among users of low-dose aspirin.

Methods  We conducted a population-based cohort study using data from Danish health registries for the years 2001 to 2018. We identified all patients with a first-time diagnosis of VTE who also redeemed a prescription for low-dose aspirin (75–150mg) within 90 days prior to the first-time VTE. We categorized aspirin users by the number of prescriptions filled as new users (<5 prescriptions), short-term users (5–19 prescriptions), and long-term users (>19 prescriptions). We computed the absolute cancer risks and standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for cancer using national cancer incidence rates.

Results  We followed-up 11,759 users of low-dose aspirin with VTE. Long-term users comprised 50% of aspirin users. The 1-year absolute risk of cancer was 6.0% for new users and 6.7% for short-term and long-term users, with corresponding SIRs of 3.3 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.8–4.0), 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9–3.7), and 2.8 (95% CI: 2.6–3.2), respectively. After the first year of follow-up, the SIR decreased to 1.2 (95% CI: 1.1–1.4) for new users, 1.1 (95% CI: 1.1–1.3) for short-term users, and 1.1 (95% CI: 1.0–1.2) for long-term users.

Conclusion  VTE may be a harbinger of cancer, even in users of low-dose aspirin, regardless of duration of use.

Risk-stratified selection to colonoscopy in FIT colorectal cancer screening: development and temporal validation of a prediction model

BACKGROUND

Faecal immunochemical tests (FITs) yield many false positives and challenge colonoscopy capacity in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programmes. We aimed to develop a risk-based selection of participants to undergo diagnostic colonoscopy.

METHODS

The study was observational and used registry data from the Danish CRC screening programme. We included all participants invited 2014-2016 with a positive FIT (≥ 20 μg fHb/g) who underwent colonoscopy (n = 56,459). We predicted the risk of CRC or advanced neoplasia (AN) from age, gender and FIT value using logistic regression. We evaluated calibration and discrimination and conducted temporal validation. We compared the number of CRCs and adenomas identified by risk cut-offs and by a corresponding FIT cut-off.

RESULTS

AUCs were 74.9% (95% CI: 73.6; 76.3) and 67.4% (95% CI: 66.8%; 68.0%) for the models predicting CRC and AN in the validation dataset. The cut-off of CRC risk calculated from age, gender and FIT value identified 1.03 times (95% CI: 1.02; 1.05) more CRCs and 1.01 times (95% CI: 1.01; 1.01) more medium/high-risk adenomas compared with the corresponding FIT cut-off.

CONCLUSIONS

With existing data, risk-stratified FIT screening using a risk cut-off instead of a FIT cut-off can slightly improve the selection to colonoscopy of those at highest risk of cancer and adenomas.

Characteristics and Survival of Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease and Postcolonoscopy Colorectal Cancers

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Postcolonoscopy colorectal cancers (PCCRCs) account for up to 50% of colorectal cancers (CRCs) in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We investigated characteristics of IBD patients with PCCRC and their survival.

METHODS

We identified IBD patients (ulcerative colitis [UC] and Crohn's disease) diagnosed with CRC from 1995 to 2015. We defined PCCRC as diagnosed between 6 and 36 months, and detected CRC (dCRC) as diagnosed within 6 months after colonoscopy. We computed prevalence ratios comparing PCCRC vs dCRC and followed up patients from the diagnosis of PCCRC/dCRC until death, emigration, or study end. Mortality was compared using Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for sex, age, year of CRC diagnosis, and stage. The main analyses focused on patients with UC.

RESULTS

Among 23,738 UC patients undergoing colonoscopy, we identified 352 patients with CRC, of whom 103 (29%) had PCCRC. Compared with dCRC, PCCRC was associated with a higher prevalence of metastatic cancer (33% vs 20%; prevalence ratio, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.13-2.38), cancers showing mismatch repair deficiency (79% vs 56%; prevalence ratio, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.13-1.72), and proximally located cancers (54% vs 40%; prevalence ratio, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.06-1.69). The 1- and 5-year adjusted hazard ratios of death for PCCRC vs dCRC among UC patients were 1.29 (95% CI, 0.77-2.18) and 1.24 (95% CI, 0.86-1.79), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The characteristics of UC-related PCCRC suggest tumor biology as an important factor in the progression to cancer. However, the prognosis of PCCRC appears similar to that of dCRC.

Type 2 diabetes and risk of diverticular disease: a Danish cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the association between type 2 diabetes and risk of diverticular disease. Unlike previous studies, which have found conflicting results, we aimed to distinguish between diabetes types and adjust for modifiable risk factors.

DESIGN

Observational cohort study.

SETTING

Population-based Danish medical databases, covering the period 2005-2018.

PARTICIPANTS

Respondents of the 2010 or the 2013 Danish National Health Survey, of which there were 15 047 patients with type 2 diabetes and 210 606 patients without diabetes.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Hazard ratios (HRs) for incident hospital diagnosis of diverticular disease adjusted for survey year, sex, age, body mass index (BMI), physical activity intensity, smoking behaviour, diet and education based on Cox regression analysis. As latency may affect the association between type 2 diabetes and diverticular disease, patients with type 2 diabetes were stratified into those with <2.5, 2.5-4.9 and ≥5 years duration of diabetes prior to cohort entry.

RESULTS

For patients with and without diabetes the incidence rates of diverticular disease were 0.76 and 0.54 events per 1000 person years, corresponding to a crude HR of 1.08 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.16) and an adjusted HR of 0.88 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.96). The HR was lower among patients with ≥5 years duration of diabetes (adjusted HR: 0.76, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.87) than among those with 2.5-4.9 years or <2.5 years duration.

CONCLUSION

We found that patients with type 2 diabetes had a higher incidence rate of diverticular disease compared with patients without diabetes. However, after adjustment for modifiable risk factors, driven by BMI, type 2 diabetes appeared to be associated with a slightly lower risk of diverticular disease. Lack of adjustment for BMI may partially explain the conflicting findings of previous studies.

Risk of a post-colonoscopy colorectal cancer in patients with type 2 diabetes: a Danish population-based cohort study

Objective

Prevalent type 2 diabetes (T2D) is associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer and could impair the quality of bowel preparation for colonoscopy. This may in turn increase the risk of overlooked precancerous polyps and subsequent risk of post-colonoscopy colorectal cancer (PCCRC). We investigated whether patients with T2D are at increased risk of PCCRC compared with patients without T2D.

Design

We conducted a population-based cohort study of patients with T2D and without T2D undergoing colonoscopy in Denmark (1995–2015). We investigated the risk of PCCRC by calculating >6 to 36 months cumulative incidence proportions (CIPs) treating death and colectomy as competing risks. Using Cox proportional-hazards regression analyses, we also computed HRs of PCCRC, comparing patients with T2D and non-T2D. According to the World Endoscopy Organization guidelines, we calculated PCCRC 3-year rates to estimate the proportions of T2D and non-T2D CRC patients experiencing PCCRC.

Results

We identified 29 031 patients with T2D and 333 232 patients without T2D undergoing colonoscopy. We observed 250 PCCRCs among patients with T2D and 1658 PCCRCs among patients without T2D. The >6 to 36 months CIP after a first-time colonoscopy was 0.64% (95% CI 0.55% to 0.74%) for T2D and 0.36% (95% CI 0.34% to 0.38%) for patients without T2D. The HRs of PCCRC were 1.43 (95% CI 1.21 to 1.72) after a first-time colonoscopy and 1.18 (95% CI 0.75 to 1.85) after a second-time colonoscopy. The PCCRC 3-year rate was 7.9% for patients with T2D and 7.4% for patients without T2D.

Conclusion

T2D may be associated with an increased HR of PCCRC.

P058 INCISIONAL HERNIA REPAIR IN PATIENTS WITH INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE

Aim

Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are likely to undergo several abdominal operations and may thus be at increased risk for incisional hernia repair (IHR). The aim of the present study was to investigate risk and predictors of IHR in patients undergoing surgery for ulcerative colitis (UC) or Crohn’s disease (CD).

Material and Methods

Nationwide register-based study (1996-2018). Patients were followed from date of first abdominal operation until the date of the first IHR. Cumulative incidence proportion were estimated treating death as competing risk. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to explore pre-study defined predictors of IHR.

Results

Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are likely to undergo several abdominal operations and may thus be at increased risk for incisional hernia repair (IHR). The present study analyzed the risk and predictors of IHR in patients undergoing surgery for ulcerative colitis (UC) or Crohn’s disease (CD).

Conclusions

The risk for incisional hernia repair is relatively low after IBD-surgery, although increased in UC compared with CD patients. Hernia repair predictors varied between UC and CD patients.

Ranitidine and Risk of Bladder and Kidney Cancer: A Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

In 2019, ranitidine was withdrawn due to high levels of N-nitrosodimethylamine, a probable human carcinogen. The risk of bladder and kidney cancer in ranitidine users, however, remains unclear.

METHODS

In a Danish nationwide cohort study, we included adults (18 years or older) without previous cancer, who between 1996 and 2008 redeemed at least two prescriptions for ranitidine and, as two separate comparison cohorts, patients with at least two prescriptions for other H2-receptor antagonists (H2-blockers), or proton pump inhibitors (PPI). Follow-up for bladder or kidney cancer started at date of the second prescription and continued to date of cancer, death, emigration, or December 31, 2018, whichever occurred first. We used propensity scores for ranitidine use to compute stabilized inverse probability of treatment (sIPT) weights and used Cox regression to compute crude and weighted HRs.

RESULTS

We identified 31,393 initiators of ranitidine, 65,384 initiating other H2-blockers, and 509,849 initiating PPI. Compared with other H2-blockers, the crude HR for bladder cancer was 1.33 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15-1.55], but sIPT weighting attenuated this to 1.11 (95% CI: 0.95-1.29). Compared with PPI initiators, the weighted HR was 1.24 (95% CI: 1.04-1.48). For kidney cancer, the weighted HR was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.72-1.10) compared with users of H2-blockers and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.67-1.13) compared with users of PPI.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings did not suggest a substantial increase in bladder or kidney cancer occurrence in ranitidine users.

IMPACT

These findings are reassuring for previous ranitidine users.

Risk of a post-colonoscopy colorectal cancer diagnosis in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND : Post-colonoscopy colorectal cancers (PCCRCs) may account for up to 50 % of all colorectal cancers (CRCs) diagnosed in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). This may reflect a high colonoscopy frequency; however, evidence remains limited. METHODS : We conducted a cohort study of IBD and non-IBD patients undergoing colonoscopy. We calculated cumulative incidence proportions (CIPs) of PCCRC at 7-36 months after first-time and subsequent colonoscopies. We also computed crude and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of PCCRC, comparing IBD with non-IBD patients undergoing first-time and subsequent colonoscopies. Separate analyses were conducted for consecutive colonoscopies. We calculated 3-year rates of PCCRC to estimate the proportion of IBD and non-IBD CRC patients experiencing PCCRC. RESULTS : We observed 138 and 1909 PCCRCs among 34 688 IBD and 358 217 non-IBD patients who underwent colonoscopy. The CIP of PCCRC after first-time colonoscopy was 0.21 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.17 %-0.27 %) for IBD patients and 0.37 % (95 %CI 0.35 %-0.39 %) for non-IBD patients. The adjusted HR of PCCRC after a first-time colonoscopy was 0.96 (95 %CI 0.75-1.22) and the adjusted HRs after subsequent colonoscopies had point estimates around 1.0. The 3-year PCCRC rate was 24.3 % (95 %CI 20.4 %-28.7 %) for IBD and 7.5 % (95 %CI 7.2 %-7.8 %) for non-IBD patients. CONCLUSIONS : Although PCCRCs accounted for a substantial proportion of all IBD-related CRCs, IBD patients had a low CIP of PCCRC. The elevated 3-year PCCRC rates may, among other factors, stem from the increased colonoscopy frequency in IBD patients.

Venous Thromboembolism and Risk of Cancer in Patients with Diverticular Disease: A Danish Population-Based Cohort Study

Purpose

Venous thromboembolism may be a harbinger of cancer. Patients with diverticular disease are suggested to have an increased risk of developing venous thromboembolism compared with the general population, but it remains unclear whether venous thromboembolism is also a marker of occult cancer in these patients. We investigated the risk of cancer after venous thromboembolism among patients with diverticular disease.

Patients and Methods

We used Danish health registries to conduct a nationwide, population-based cohort study during 1996–2017. We identified all venous thromboembolism patients with a diagnosis of diverticular disease and calculated absolute risks of cancer and standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) by comparing observed and expected cancer incidence based on national cancer incidence in the Danish population.

Results

We followed 3406 patients with venous thromboembolism and diverticular disease for a median of 3.0 years (interquartile range: 1.0–6.0). During the first year of follow-up, we observed 212 cancer cases. The corresponding one-year risk of cancer was 6.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.5–7.1) with a SIR of 2.9 (95% CI: 2.5–3.3). The SIRs were particularly elevated for cancers of the stomach, pancreas, ovary, and kidney. During the second and subsequent years of follow-up, 337 cancers were diagnosed with a SIR of 1.1 (95% CI: 1.0–1.3).

Conclusion

Venous thromboembolism is a harbinger of occult cancer in patients with diverticular disease.

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Risk of lower gastrointestinal bleeding and colorectal neoplasms following initiation of low-dose aspirin: a Danish population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Aspirin may increase the risk of lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) from precursors of colorectal cancer (CRC). We investigated whether use of low-dose aspirin, through initiation of LGIB, may lead patients to undergo colonoscopy and polypectomy before manifest CRC.

DESIGN

We conducted a historical cohort study (2005-2013) of all Danish residents who initiated low-dose aspirin treatment (n=412 202) in a setting without screening for CRC. Each new aspirin user was matched with three non-users (n=1 236 560) by age, sex and region of residence on the date of their matched new user's first-time aspirin prescription (index date). We computed absolute risks (ARs), risk differences and relative risks (RRs) of LGIB, lower gastrointestinal endoscopy, colorectal polyps and CRC, comparing aspirin users with non-users.

RESULTS

The ARs were higher for new users than non-users for LGIB, lower gastrointestinal endoscopy, colorectal polyps and CRC within 3 months after index. Comparing new users with non-users, the RRs were 2.79 (95% CI 2.40 to 3.24) for LGIB, 1.73 (95% CI 1.63 to 1.84) for lower gastrointestinal endoscopy, 1.56 (95% CI 1.42 to 1.72) for colorectal polyps and 1.73 (95% CI 1.51 to 1.98) for CRC. The RRs remained elevated for more than 12 months after the index date, with the exception of CRC where the RRs were slightly decreased during the 3-5 years (RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.98) and more than 5 years (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.00) following the index date.

CONCLUSION

These findings indicate that aspirin may contribute to reduce CRC risk by causing premalignant polyps to bleed, thereby expediting colonoscopy and polypectomy before CRC development.

Early-Life Exposure to Antibiotics and Risk for Crohn's Disease: A Nationwide Danish Birth Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Early-life antibiotic use can alter the intestinal flora and modify the risk of developing Crohn disease (CD), but rigorous epidemiological evidence is limited, with inconsistent results.

METHODS

We identified all children born in Denmark from 1995 to 2009 and followed them from birth until death, emigration, a diagnosis of CD, or January 1, 2013. Using Cox regression, we assessed the association between antibiotic exposure in the first year of life and subsequent risk for CD, adjusting for sex, degree of urbanization, birth order, birth year, route of delivery, gestational age, smoking during pregnancy, intake of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in the first year of life, and family history of CD.

RESULTS

During a median 9.5 years (9.3 million total person-years), CD was diagnosed in 208 of 979,039 children. Antibiotic use in the first year of life was associated with a higher risk of CD (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-1.8), with the highest risk with ≥6 courses of antibiotics (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.1; 95% CI, 2.0-8.5). A family history of CD did not modify these risk associations. The cumulative risk of CD at the 11th birthday for children exposed to antibiotics in their first year of life was 0.16‰ (95% CI, 0.11‰-0.22‰) compared to 0.11‰ (95% CI, 0.08‰-0.15‰) for children unexposed to antibiotics in their first year of life.

CONCLUSIONS

Antibiotic use in the first year of life is associated with a modestly increased risk for CD, although the absolute risk is very low.

Geometrical frustration and cluster spin glass with random graphs

We develop a based on a sparse random graph to account for the interplay between geometric frustration and disorder in cluster magnetism. Our theory allows introduction of the cluster network connectivity as a controllable parameter. Two types of inner cluster geometry are considered: triangular and tetrahedral. The theory was developed for general, nonuniform intracluster interactions, but in the present paper the results presented correspond to uniform, antiferromagnetic (AF) intraclusters interaction J_{0}/J. The clusters are represented by nodes on a finite connectivity random graph, and the intercluster interactions are randomly Gaussian distributed. The graph realizations are treated in replica theory using the formalism of order parameter functions, which allows one to calculate the distribution of local fields and, as a consequence, the relevant observable. In the case of triangular cluster geometry, there is the onset of a classical spin liquid state at a temperature T^{*}/J and then, a cluster spin glass (CSG) phase at a temperature T_{/}J. The CSG ground state is robust even for very weak disorder or large negative J_{0}/J. These results does not depend on the network connectivity. Nevertheless, variations in the connectivity strongly affect the level of frustration f_{p}=-Θ_{CW}/T_{f} for large J_{0}/J. In contrast, for the nonfrustrated tetrahedral cluster geometry, the CSG ground state is suppressed for weak disorder or large negative J_{0}/J. The CSG boundary phase presents a reentrance which is dependent on the network connectivity.

Ising spin glass in a random network with a Gaussian random field

We investigate thermodynamic phase transitions of the joint presence of spin glass (SG) and random field (RF) using a random graph model that allows us to deal with the quenched disorder. Therefore, the connectivity becomes a controllable parameter in our theory, allowing us to answer what the differences are between this description and the mean-field theory i.e., the fully connected theory. We have considered the random network random field Ising model where the spin exchange interaction as well as the RF are random variables following a Gaussian distribution. The results were found within the replica symmetric (RS) approximation, whose stability is obtained using the two-replica method. This also puts our work in the context of a broader discussion, which is the RS stability as a function of the connectivity. In particular, our results show that for small connectivity there is a region at zero temperature where the RS solution remains stable above a given value of the magnetic field no matter the strength of RF. Consequently, our results show important differences with the crossover between the RF and SG regimes predicted by the fully connected theory.

Hepatobiliary Cancer Risk in Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Scandinavian Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) has been associated with hepatobiliary cancer, but existing evidence is poor. We evaluated risk of death from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), and extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ECC) among patients with IBD.

METHODS

This Swedish/Danish population-based cohort study (1969-2017) followed patients with IBD and 1:10 matched population comparators from their diagnosis/match date until death, emigration, or end of follow-up.

RESULTS

Among the 97,496 patients with ulcerative colitis/963,026 comparators, we found 66/390 HCC-deaths, 120/173 ICC-deaths, and 91/220 ECC-deaths (median follow-up 10 years); the 10-year-mortality was 0.5‰ (per mille) for HCC, 0.6‰ for ICC, and 0.4‰ for ECC, which decreased to 0.3‰, 0.4‰, and 0.2‰, respectively, in 2003-2017. Overall hazard ratios (HR) were 1.83 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.41-2.38] for HCC-, 7.33 (95% CI, 5.81-9.25) for ICC-, and 4.46 (95% CI, 3.49-5.70) for ECC-deaths. A total of 22/66 HCC-deaths, 87/120 ICC-deaths, and 55/91 ECC-deaths occurred among patients with ulcerative colitis with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), corresponding to 10-year-mortality of 6.7‰, 26.2‰, and 17.2‰, respectively. Among 47,399 patients with Crohn's disease (median follow-up 11 years), 10-year-mortality from HCC (n = 28), ICC (n = 28), and ECC (n = 24) were 0.3‰, 0.1‰, and 0.3‰, respectively, and corresponding HRs were 1.96 (95% CI, 1.31-2.93), 3.33 (95% CI, 2.19-5.09), and 3.10 (95% CI, 1.97-4.87). One of 28 HCC-deaths, 14/28 ICC-deaths (10-year-mortality 19‰), and 12/24 ECC-deaths (10-year-mortality 14‰) occurred after PSC.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk of HCC-, ICC-, and ECC-deaths was low in patients with IBD and decreased over time. However, a large proportion of deaths occurred after PSC.

IMPACT

Guidelines on specific surveillance strategies for patients with IBD with PSC, but not those without PSC, are needed.

Statins and risk of diverticular disease: Nested case-control study

BACKGROUND

Statins exert pleiotropic anti-inflammatory effects and may prevent diverticular disease. However, the association remains poorly understood with previous studies obtaining conflicting results.

AIMS

To examine the effect of statin on the subsequent risk of diverticular disease.

METHODS

We conducted a nested case-control study in Denmark among respondents (>18 years) of the 2010 or the 2013 Danish National Health Survey. Among these, we identified 8809 cases of hospital-diagnosed diverticular disease and risk-set sampled population controls without diverticular disease. Using complete prescription and hospital records, we used conditional logistic regression to compute odds ratios (ORs) associating statin use with diverticular disease. In adjusted analyses, we controlled for hospital-based diagnoses, medication use other than statins, and lifestyle and socioeconomic factors.

RESULTS

The fully adjusted OR for diverticular disease associated with ever use (≥1 statin prescription filling) was 1.19 (95% CI: 1.12-1.27) compared with never use. However, we observed no dose-response relation. For example, among short-term users (<5 years), the OR was 1.18 (95% CI: 1.04-1.35) for low intensity users and 1.13 (95% CI: 1.01-1.26) for high intensity users. Among long-term users (≥5 years), the respective ORs were 1.25 (95% CI: 1.13-1.38) and 1.11 (95% CI: 0.98-1.24). In analyses restricting to cases and controls with a previous colonoscopy, associations were null (OR: 1.01 [95% CI: 0.85-1.20]).

CONCLUSIONS

The observed association of a higher risk of diverticular disease associated with statins could be explained by diagnostic bias. Our study did not support a protective nor harmful effect of statins on the risk of diverticular disease.

Inflammatory bowel disease and risk of small bowel cancer: a binational population-based cohort study from Denmark and Sweden

OBJECTIVE

Crohn's disease (CD) is associated with increased risk of small bowel cancer (SBC), but previous studies have been small. We aimed to examine the risk of incident SBC and death from SBC in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).

DESIGN

In a binational, population-based cohort study from Sweden and Denmark of patients with IBD during 1969-2017 and matched reference individuals from the general population, we evaluated the risk of incident SBC and death from SBC. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs).

RESULTS

We identified 161 896 individuals with IBD (CD: 47 370; UC: 97 515; unclassified IBD: 17 011). During follow-up, 237 cases of SBC were diagnosed in patients with IBD (CD: 24.4/100 000 person-years; UC: 5.88/100 000 person-years), compared with 640 cases in reference individuals (2.81/100 000 person-years and 3.32/100 000 person-years, respectively). This corresponded to one extra case of SBC in 385 patients with CD and one extra case in 500 patients with UC, followed up for 10 years. The aHR for incident SBC was 9.09 (95% CI 7.34 to 11.3) in CD and 1.85 (95% CI 1.43 to 2.39) in UC. Excluding the first year after an IBD diagnosis, the aHRs for incident SBC decreased to 4.96 in CD and 1.69 in UC. Among patients with CD, HRs were independently highest for recently diagnosed, childhood-onset, ileal and stricturing CD. The relative hazard of SBC-related death was increased in both patients with CD (aHR 6.59, 95% CI 4.74 to 9.15) and patients with UC (aHR 1.57; 95% CI 1.07 to 2.32).

CONCLUSION

SBC and death from SBC were more common in patients with IBD, particularly among patients with CD, although absolute risks were low.

Quality indicators for screening colonoscopy and colonoscopist performance and the subsequent risk of interval colorectal cancer: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this review was to assess the association between quality indicators used to evaluate individual colonoscopist performance and subsequent interval colorectal cancers (CRCs) in patients participating in bowel cancer screening programs.

INTRODUCTION

Colorectal cancer is a leading cause of cancer death. Bowel cancer screening has been shown to reduce CRC mortality and morbidity, and has therefore been introduced in many countries. Endoscopy societies have developed quality assurance guidelines and guidelines on quality indicators for screening colonoscopies. These quality indicators need to be validated against a relevant outcome to assess their value.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

We included studies on screening colonoscopies conducted on participants in a bowel cancer screening program, regardless of comorbidity. Studies on procedures performed on patients with known CRC, hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer or familial adenomatous polyposis were excluded. We also included studies evaluating the quality indicators of withdrawal time (WT), cecal intubation rate (CIR) and adenoma detection rate (ADR). The search did not reveal any studies evaluating the quality indicators polyp retrieval rate and incomplete adenoma resection/incomplete polyp resection. Only studies with interval CRC as an outcome were included (i.e. CRC diagnosed after a negative screening colonoscopy, but before the next recommended examination date).

METHODS

Published studies were searched in: MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science and CINAHL. Unpublished studies were searched in: OpenGrey and Grey Literature Report. The sources were searched from 1980 to2018. Data were extracted using the JBI critical appraisal checklist for analytical cross sectional studies. A meta-analysis was conducted based on three of the colonoscopist dependent quality indicators: WT, CIR and ADR.

RESULTS

Seven prospective and retrospective cohort studies were included out of 2373 papers identified after duplicates were removed. The included studies were on bowel cancer screening programs with colonoscopy as the primary screening tool, resulting in the inclusion of a total of 616,390 screening colonoscopies performed by 1431 colonoscopists and 2319 subsequent interval CRCs. Six studies were assessed as high-quality studies, and one study was of low quality. The meta-analysis on WT revealed a 61% lower risk of interval CRC among the patients if the mean WT per colonoscopist was >6 minutes as compared to a mean WT of <6 minutes (RR: 0.39 [95% CI: 0.23 - 0.66]). The meta-analysis on CIR revealed a 31% lower risk of interval CRC among the patients if the CIR per colonoscopist was ≥90% as compared to a CIR of <85% (RR: 0.69 [95% CI: 0.56 - 0.83]). One of two meta-analyses on the individual colonoscopist ADR suggested that this should be 15-19%, as compared to an ADR <10% (RR: 0.77 [95% CI: 0.62 - 0.96]), in order to significantly reduce the risk of interval CRC. The other meta-analysis on ADR revealed a significant association between an individual colonoscopist ADR of ≥25% and a lower risk of interval CRC as compared to an ADR of <25% (RR: 0.51 [95% CI: 0.33 - 0.80]). The meta-analyses on WT and CIR showed no heterogeneity concerning the significant results (I = 0.0%). A high variability across studies due to heterogeneity concerning an ADR of ≥20% resulted in an I = 59.9%, and an I = 63.2% for an ADR of ≥25%.

CONCLUSIONS

To minimize the risk of interval CRC, it may be recommended that WT and CIRs are monitored in bowel cancer screening programs, with an optimal individual colonoscopist mean withdrawal time of >6 minutes and a cecal intubation rate of ≥90%. In bowel cancer screening programs using colonoscopy as their primary screening tool, it may be recommended that the individual colonoscopist ADR be 15-19% or better ≥25% to minimize the risk of interval CRC.

Stoma reversal after intended restorative rectal cancer resection in Denmark: nationwide population-based study

BACKGROUND

Data on stoma reversal following restorative rectal resection (RRR) with a diverting stoma are conflicting. This study investigated a Danish population-based cohort of patients undergoing RRR to evaluate factors predictive of stoma reversal during 3 years of follow-up.

METHODS

Patients from national registries with rectal cancer undergoing RRR or Hartmann's procedure with curative intent between May 2001 and April 2012 were included. Patients with a diverting stoma were followed from the time of primary rectal cancer resection to date of stoma reversal, death, emigration, or end of 3-year follow-up. The cumulative incidence proportion (CIP) of stoma reversal at 1 and 3 years was calculated, treating death as a competing risk. Factors predictive of stoma reversal were explored using Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of 6859 patients included, 35·7, 41·9 and 22·4 per cent respectively had a RRR with a diverting stoma, RRR without a stoma, and Hartmann's procedure with an end-colostomy. In patients with a diverting stoma, the CIP of stoma reversal was 70·3 (95 per cent c.i. 68·4 to 72·1) per cent after 1 year, and 74·3 (72·5 to 76·0) per cent after 3 years. Neoadjuvant treatment (hazard ratio (HR) 0·75, 95 per cent c.i. 0·66 to 0·85), blood loss greater than 300 ml (HR 0·86, 0·76 to 0·97), anastomotic leak (HR 0·41, 0·33 to 0·50), T3 category (HR 0·63, 0·47 to 0·83), T4 category (HR 0·62, 0·42 to 0·90) and UICC stage IV (HR 0·57, 0·41 to 0·80) were possible predictors of delayed stoma reversal.

CONCLUSION

In one-quarter of the patients the diverting stoma had not been reversed 3 years after the intended RRR procedure.

Inflammatory bowel disease and pancreatic cancer: a Scandinavian register-based cohort study 1969-2017

BACKGROUND

Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have an increased risk of cancer.

AIM

To assess the risk of pancreatic cancer in IBD compared to the general population.

METHODS

Patients with incident IBD 1969-2017 were identified in Danish and Swedish National Patient Registers and through biopsy data, and were matched to IBD-free reference individuals by sex, age, place of residence and year of IBD diagnosis. We linked data to Cancer and Causes of Death Registers and examined the absolute and relative risks of pancreatic cancer and pancreatic cancer death.

RESULTS

Among 161 926 patients followed for 2 000 951 person years, 442 (0.27%) were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer compared to 3386 (0.21%) of the 1 599 024 reference individuals. The 20-year cumulative incidence was 0.34% (95% confidence interval 0.30-0.38) vs 0.29% (0.28-0.30). The incidence rate was 22.1 (20.1-24.2)/100 000 person years in the patients (excluding the first year of follow-up: 20.8 [18.8-23.0]), and 16.6 (16.0-17.2) in the reference individuals. The hazard ratio (HR) for pancreatic cancer was increased overall: 1.43 (1.30-1.58), in subtypes (Crohn's disease: 1.44 [1.18-1.74]; ulcerative colitis: 1.35 [1.19-1.53]; IBD unclassified: 1.99 [1.50-2.64]) and especially in IBD patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis: 7.55 (4.94-11.5). Patients and reference individuals with pancreatic cancer did not differ in cancer stage (P = 0.17) or pancreatic cancer mortality (HR 1.07 [0.95-1.21]).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with IBD had an excess risk of pancreatic cancer, in particular patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis. However, the cumulative incidence difference after 20 years was small: 0.05%, that is, one extra pancreatic cancer per 2000 IBD patients.

Extracolonic Cancer Risk After Total Colectomy for Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Population-based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Patients with inflammatory bowel disease are at increased risk of extracolonic cancers. Little is known regarding this risk following total colectomy [TC].

METHODS

Patients who underwent TC for inflammatory bowel disease in Denmark during 1977-2013 were identified from the Danish National Patient Registry. Incidence rates of extracolonic cancers were determined through record linkage to the Danish Cancer Registry and compared with expected incidence rates in the general population. Standardized incidence ratios [SIRs] were calculated as the observed vs expected cancer incidence.

RESULTS

In total, 4430 patients (3441 with ulcerative colitis [UC]; 989 with Crohn's disease [CD]) were followed for 54,183 person-years after TC. Following their surgery, 372 patients were diagnosed with extracolonic cancer compared to 331 expected [SIR = 1.1 (95% confidence interval {CI}: 1.0-1.2)]. The risk of extracolonic cancer overall was increased among patients with CD and TC (SIR = 1.5 [95% CI: 1.2-1.8]), but not among patients with UC and TC (SIR = 1.0 [95% CI: 0.9-1.2]). Patients with UC and TC had a higher risk of intestinal extracolonic cancer (SIR = 2.0 [95% CI: 1.4-2.7]). Patients with CD and TC had a higher risk of smoking-related cancers (SIR = 1.9 [95% CI: 1.2-2.9]), intestinal extracolonic cancer (SIR = 3.1 [95% CI: 1.6-5.5]) and immune-mediated cancers (SIR = 1.5 [95% CI: 1.0-2.1]).

CONCLUSION

Patients with CD and TC had a higher risk of extracolonic cancer overall compared to the general population, while patients with UC and TC did not. Site-specific cancer risk varied according to inflammatory bowel disease type.

The association of serum lipid levels with colorectal cancer recurrence

BACKGROUND

Biologic and epidemiologic evidence suggests that tumor cells depend on reprogrammed lipid metabolic function for survival and growth. Lipids may promote tumor recurrence by providing energy needed for proliferation. Studies have found associations of serum lipids with cancer incidence, mortality, and disease-free mortality, though they have yet to evaluate the prognostic potential of serum lipids for colorectal cancer (CRC) recurrence.

METHODS

341 Danish CRC patients who underwent surgical resection were actively followed between 2003-2011 from date of surgery until December 31, 2012, or death. Serum lipids including low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides (TG), were collected at regular intervals. Lipids were assigned as time-varying exposures evaluated with a one-year lag. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess recurrence rate, adjusting for clinically relevant covariates. A restricted analysis was performed in a group of non-statin users (n = 236).

RESULTS

Among 341 CRC patients, increased HDL-C appeared to have a beneficial impact on recurrence-free survival (RFS) for CRC patients, especially among statin users (hazard ratio [HR] for 0.1 mmol/L increase = 0.58; 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.43, 0.78). Increased LDL-C and TG were not associated with RFS. Increased lipids showed a near-null effect on CRC recurrence [e.g. HR (95 % CI) for 0.1 mmol/L increase LDL = 1.01 (0.97, 1.19)] among non-statin users.

CONCLUSION

Serum lipid levels of LDL-C and TG do not appear to be associated with CRC recurrence. Further investigation of the role of HDL-C in CRC recurrence may be of interest based on the suggestive inverse association observed here.

Application of the Adaptive Validation Substudy Design to Colorectal Cancer Recurrence

Background

Among men and women diagnosed with colorectal cancer (CRC), 20-50% will develop a cancer recurrence. Cancer recurrences are not routinely captured by most population-based registries; however, linkage across Danish registries allows for the development of predictive models to detect recurrence. Successful application of such models in population-based settings requires validation against a gold standard to ensure the accuracy of recurrence identification.

Objective

We apply a recently developed validation study design for prospectively collected validation data to validate predicted CRC recurrences against gold standard diagnoses from medical records in an actively followed cohort of CRC patients in Denmark.

Methods

We use a Bayesian monitoring framework, traditionally used in clinical trials, to iteratively update classification parameters (positive and negative predictive values, and sensitivity and specificity) in an adaptive validation substudy design. This design allows determination of the sample size necessary to estimate the corresponding parameters and to identify when validation efforts can cease based on predefined criteria for parameter values and levels of precision.

Results

Among 355 men and women diagnosed with CRC in Denmark and actively followed semi-annually, there were 63 recurrences diagnosed by active follow-up and 70 recurrences identified by a predictive algorithm. The adaptive validation design met stopping criteria for the classification parameters after 120 patients had their recurrence information validated. This stopping point yielded parameter estimates for the classification parameters similar to those obtained when the entire cohort was validated, with 66% less patients needed for the validation study.

Conclusion

In this proof of concept application of the adaptive validation study design for outcome misclassification, we demonstrated the ability of the method to accurately determine when sufficient validation data have been collected. This method serves as a novel validation substudy design for prospectively collected data with simultaneous implementation of a validation study.