Recent cancer incidence trends and short-term predictions in Golestan, Iran 2004-2025

Breast cancer incidence trends in Golestan, Iran: An age-period-cohort analysis by ethnic region, 2004-2018

BACKGROUND

We aimed to examine the effects of age, diagnosis year (calendar period) and birth year (cohort) on the incidence trends of breast cancer among Golestan women, Northeast Iran, 2004-2018.

METHODS

Incidence data were obtained by residential status (urban/rural) and ethnic region (Turkmens/non-Turkmens). We calculated age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were calculated, and age-period-cohort (APC) models fitted to assess non-linear effects of period and cohort as incidence rate ratios (IRRs).

RESULTS

The total number of female breast cancer cases in Golestan, 2004-2018, were 3853, with an overall ASR of 31.3. We found higher rates in urban population (40.5) and non-Turkmens region (38.5) compared to rural area (20.8) and Turkmens region (20.2), respectively. There were increasing trends in incidence rates overall (EAPC= 4.4; 95%CI: 2.2, 6.7), with greater changes in rural areas (EAPC=5.1), particularly among non-Turkmens (EAPC=5.8). The results of the APC analysis indicate the presence of significant non-linear cohort effects with increasing IRRs across successive birth cohorts (IRR=0.1 and IRR= 2.6 for the oldest and the youngest birth cohorts vs. the reference birth cohort, respectively).

CONCLUSION

We found increasing trends in breast cancer incidence among Golestan women over the study period, with disparities in patterns and trends by residence area and ethnic region. The observed cohort effects suggest an increasing prevalence of key risk factors for breast cancer in this Iranian population. Further investigations are warranted to clarify the relationships between determinants such as reproductive factors and ethnicity in the region.

Descriptive Epidemiology of Early-Onset Gastrointestinal Cancers in Iran, 2014-2018

Background

We aim to present incidence rates and geographical distribution of most common early-onset gastrointestinal cancers (EOGICs), including early-onset esophageal cancer (EOEC), gastric cancer (EOGC) and colorectal cancer (EOCRC) in Iran, 2014-2018.

Methods

Data on new cases of EOEC, EOGC and EOCRC were obtained from publicly available annual reports of the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry (INPCR). Incidence rates were calculated using the population data available from the Statistical center of Iran. We considered the World standard population for calculation of age-standardized incidence rates (ASR). We also calculated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for ASR. All rates are presented per 100000 person-years.

Results

Overall, 19,679 new cases of EOGIC were registered by the INPCR between 2014 and 2018. The ASRs (95% CI) of EOEC, EOGC and EOCRC were 0.49 (95% CI: 0.47-0.51), 1.67 (1.63-1.71), and 3.07 (3.01-3.13) per 100,000 person-years, respectively. Our findings indicate decreasing and constant trends in the ASR of EOEC and EOGC during the study period, 2014-2018. There was an increasing trend in the ASR of EOCRC. We also found geographical disparities in the incidence rates of EOGICs across provinces of Iran, suggesting the highest ASRs of EOEC in Golestan (1.3), EOGC in Ilam (2.99) and EOCRC in Ilam (4.49).

Conclusion

Our findings suggested that the incidence rate of EOCRC is consistently increasing. We also found variations in the incidence of EOGICs among different provinces. Further investigations are recommended to clarify the time trends and risk factors of EOGICs in Iran.

A Single nucleotide polymorphism in the ALDH2 gene modifies the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in BRCA2 p.K3326* carriers

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has a very high incidence rate in northeastern Iran. Our team previously reported the BReast CAncer gene 2 (BRCA2) p.K3326* mutation as a moderately penetrant ESCC susceptibility variant in northern Iran (odds ratio (OR) = 3.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.74-7.59, P = 0.0003). Recently, it has been reported that aldehydes can induce BRCA2 haploinsufficiency in cells with a heterozygous pathogenic BRCA2 mutation and predispose them to carcinogenic effects. Based on this observation, we speculate that dysfunctional variants in Aldehyde Dehydrogenase 2 Family Member (ALDH2) may result in aldehyde-induced BRCA2 haploinsufficiency and increase cancer risk in BRCA2 mutation carriers. In support of this hypothesis, our team recently reported the breast cancer risk modifying effect of an ALDH2 common polymorphism, rs10744777, among Polish carriers of the BRCA2 p.K3326* mutation. In the current case-control study, we aimed to investigate the ESCC risk modifying effect of this ALDH2 polymorphism among BRCA2 p.K3326* mutation carriers. We assessed the interaction between the ALDH2 rs10744777 polymorphism and BRCA2 p.K3326* mutation in ESCC risk by genotyping this ALDH2 variant in the germline DNA of 746 ESCC cases and 1,373 controls from northern Iran who were previously genotyped for the BRCA2 p.K3326* mutation. Among a total of 464 individuals with TT genotype of the ALDH2 rs10744777 polymorphism, which is associated with lower ALDH2 expression, we found 9 of 164 cases versus 3 of 300 controls who carried the BRCA2 p.K3326* variant (OR = 5.66, 95% CI = 1.22-26.2, P = 0.018). This finding supports our hypothesis that the ALDH2-rs10744777 TT genotype may be a significant risk modifier of ESCC in individuals with a BRCA2 p.K3326* mutation.

Colorectal cancer incidence trends in Golestan, Iran: An age-period-cohort analysis 2004-2018

BACKGROUND

We investigated the effects of factors including age, birth year (cohort) and diagnosis year (period) on colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence trends in Golestan, Northeast of Iran, 2004-2018.

METHODS

We obtained data on incidence cases of CRC from the Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry by sex and area of residence (urban/rural). Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated using the World standard population and presented per 100,000 person-years. We calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) with 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CI) fitted age-period-cohort (APC) models to assess non-linear period and cohort effects as incidence rate ratios (IRRs).

RESULTS

Overall, 2839 new cases of CRC (ASR = 13.7) were registered in the GPCR over 2004-2018. Our findings suggested significantly increasing trends in CRC incidence rates from 2004 to 2018 (EAPC = 3.7; 95%CI: 0.4, 7.1), with the greatest changes occurring in rural women (EAPC= 4.7; 95%CI: 0.4, 9.2). We observed a strong cohort effect with a consistent increase in the IRR across successive birth cohorts, starting with the oldest birth cohort (1924) (IRR= 0.1 versus the reference birth cohort of 1955) through to the most recent cohort born in 1983 (IRR= 1.9). The largest cohort effects were found among rural females (IRR = 0.0, and IRR = 2.5 for the oldest and the youngest birth cohorts vs. the reference birth cohort, respectively).

CONCLUSION

The increasing trends in CRC rates in Golestan are largely driven by generational changes in exposure to underlying risk factors. Further investigations are warranted to deliver effective prevention strategies for the control of CRC in Golestan.

Esophageal and gastric cancer incidence trends in Golestan, Iran: An age-period-cohort analysis 2004 to 2018

Golestan province in the northeast of Iran is part of the Asian esophageal cancer belt and is known as a high-risk area for esophageal (EC) and gastric cancers (GC). Data on incident cases of EC and GC during 2004 to 2018 were obtained from the Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry (GPCR). The age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated and presented per 100 000 person-years. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated. We also fitted age-period-cohort (APC) models to assess nonlinear period and cohort effects as incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Overall, 3004 new cases of EC (ASR = 15.7) and 3553 cases of GC (ASR = 18.3) were registered in the GPCR. We found significant decreasing trends in incidence rates of EC (EAPC = -5.0; 95% CI: -7.8 to -2.2) and less marked nonsignificant trends for GC (EAPC = -1.4; 95% CI: -4.0 to 1.4) during 2004 to 2018. There was a strong cohort effect for EC with a consistent decrease in the IRR across successive birth cohorts, starting with the oldest birth cohort (1924; IRR = 1.9 vs the reference birth cohort of 1947) through to the most recent cohort born in 1988 (IRR = 0.1). The marked declines in EC incidence rates in Golestan relate to generational changes in its underlying risk factors. Despite favorable trends, this population remains at high risk of both EC and GC. Further studies are warranted to measure the impact of the major risk factors on incidence with a view to designing effective preventative programs.

Current Status and Future Prospects for Esophageal Cancer

Esophageal cancer (EC) is the ninth most common cancer and the sixth leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) are the two main histological subtypes with distinct epidemiological and clinical features. While the global incidence of ESCC is declining, the incidence of EAC is increasing in many countries. Decades of epidemiologic research have identified distinct environmental exposures for ESCC and EAC subtypes. Recent advances in understanding the genomic aspects of EC have advanced our understanding of EC causes and led to using specific genomic alterations in EC tumors as biomarkers for early diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis of this cancer. Nevertheless, the prognosis of EC is still poor, with a five-year survival rate of less than 20%. Currently, there are significant challenges for early detection and secondary prevention for both ESCC and EAC subtypes, but Cytosponge™ is shifting this position for EAC. Primary prevention remains the preferred strategy for reducing the global burden of EC. In this review, we will summarize recent advances, current status, and future prospects of the studies related to epidemiology, time trends, environmental risk factors, prevention, early diagnosis, and treatment for both EC subtypes.

Meat consumption and risk of esophageal and gastric cancer in the Golestan Cohort Study, Iran

Red meat and processed meat are associated with some gastrointestinal cancers. Our study aims to investigate the association of different meat types with esophageal and gastric cancer (EC, GC) in a high-risk population. The Golestan Cohort Study (GCS) is a population-based cohort of 50 045 individuals aged 40 to 75 from northeast Iran. Detailed data on different exposures were collected using validated questionnaires. We considered quintiles of meat consumption, using grams and density (g/1000 kcal/day). We calculated intake of red, processed, organ and white meat, as well as total red meat, including the first three. We used proportional hazards regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between meat types and cancer. During 12 years of follow-up, out of 49 585 participants (57.4% women), 369 developed EC (48.2% women) and 368 developed GC (27.5% women), including 309 esophageal squamous cell, 20 esophageal adenocarcinomas, 216 cardia and 95 non-cardia GC. No association was found for EC except for red meat among females (HR for one quintile increase 1.13, 95% CI = 1.00-1.27). The risk of GC increased for intake of total red meat (HR 1.08, 95% CI = 1.00-1.17) and red meat separately (HR 1.09, 95% CI = 1.00-1.18). The HR for red meat and non-cardia GC was 1.23 (95% CI = 1.02-1.48). No associations were observed for other types of meat. In conclusion, in this high-risk population red meat intake is associated with GC, but not EC, suggesting a substantial role of this modifiable factor in determining the burden of GC.

Establishment of a Rehabilitation Center for Patients with Prostate Cancer

Background: Prostate cancer is one of the leading causes of mortality in Iran and is the third most common cancer in male population. Objectives: The present study aimed to evaluate the necessity and efficacy of establishing a specific rehabilitation center for patients with prostate cancer. Methods: In this basic-applied research, we proposed the establishment of a rehabilitation center to support and decrease the complications of various treatments in patients with prostate cancer. After entering the rehabilitation process, a well-educated nurse and general physician trained in one of the similar European centers supported the patients to help themselves cope with unresolvable symptoms. To evaluate the patients’ satisfaction with the services offered by this rehabilitation center, the patients were asked to fill the Prostate Cancer-Related Quality of Life Questionnaire seven months after the first session. Results: In this study, 133 patients with prostate cancer (71 persons in the control group and 62 persons in the conservative treatment group) underwent the analysis. The participants’ mean age was 62.8 ± 2.31 years in the control group and 63.3 ± 4.54 years in the treatment group (P = 0.613). Moreover, the participants’ mean lifestyle scores were 5.3 ± 2.5 and 5.8 ± 2.8 in the control and treatment groups before the supportive care, respectively (P = 0.460). However, following the intervention, the scores were 5.3 ± 2.1 and 7.6 ± 1.9 in the control and treatment groups, respectively (P = 0.001). The mean lifestyle score was significantly higher after supportive care in the treatment group (P = 0.001). Conclusions: A prostate cancer-specified rehabilitation center providing supportive care by an educated healthcare professional can significantly improve the quality of life of patients with prostate cancer.

Assessment of the health risk and geo-accumulation of toxic metals in agricultural soil and wheat, northern Iran

The current work was conducted to study the concentrations of heavy metals (HMs) in farming soil and wheat and compute their geological and health indexes, including geo-accumulation index (I_geo), chronic daily intake (CDI), hazard index (HI), hazard quotient (HQ), and cancer risk (CR). In general, 256 samples were collected from agriculture soil (AS) and wheat in Kalaleh and Aq Qala areas, northern Iran. The average rates of Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn were detected to be 0.28, 25.24, 15.44, and 60.33 mg·kg^-1, respectively, for AS and 0.01, 8.85, 0.73, and 33.81 mg·kg^-1 for wheat, respectively. Based on the results, the HQ and HI levels for investigated HMs were lower than l. So, the health risk of HMs exposure for adults and children was low. CR levels for Pb in AS for both children and adults were observed greater than the threshold value. Accordingly, lead-contaminated soil will be carcinogenic if ingested by children. On the other hand, the exposure to Pb (through wheat) and Cd (through both soil and wheat) had the acceptable CR level for all groups. As a result, for an extended period, there are no significant health consequences for children and adults.

Cancer in Iran 2008 to 2025: Recent incidence trends and short-term predictions of the future burden

Policymakers require estimates of the future number of cancer patients in order to allocate finite resources to cancer prevention, treatment and palliative care. We examine recent cancer incidence trends in Iran and present predicted incidence rates and new cases for the entire country for the year 2025. We developed a method for approximating population-based incidence from the pathology-based data series available nationally for the years 2008 to 2013, and augmented this with data from the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry (INPCR) for the years 2014 to 2016. We fitted time-linear age-period models to the recent incidence trends to quantify the future cancer incidence burden to the year 2025, delineating the contribution of changes due to risk and those due to demographic change. The number of new cancer cases is predicted to increase in Iran from 112 000 recorded cases in 2016 to an estimated 160 000 in 2025, a 42.6% increase, of which 13.9% and 28.7% were attributed to changes in risk and population structure, respectively. In terms of specific cancers, the greatest increases in cases are predicted for thyroid (113.8%), prostate (66.7%), female breast (63.0%) and colorectal cancer (54.1%). Breast, colorectal and stomach cancers were the most common cancers in Iran in 2016 and are predicted to remain the leading cancers nationally in 2025. The increasing trends in incidence of most common cancers in Iran reinforce the need for the tailored design and implementation of effective national cancer control programs across the country.

Pan-cancer analysis identifies ESM1 as a novel oncogene for esophageal cancer

BACKGROUND

Recent studies highlight the crucial role of endothelial cell-specific molecule 1 (ESM1) in the development of multiple cancer types. However, its aberrant expression and prognostic value in human pan-cancer have largely not been described.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In this study, we used The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) analysis databases to explore the expression level and prognostic significance of ESM1 in 33 types of human cancer. ESM1 was shown to be over-expressed in 12 cancer types, including BLCA, BRCA, COAD, CHOL, ESCA, HNSC, KIRC, KICH, LIHC, STAD, THCA, and UCEC. The expression of ESM1 was significantly correlated with the overall survival (OS) of patients in CESC, ESCA, KIRC, and KIRP. In addition, high ESM1 level indicated poor disease-free survival (DFS) of patients with ACC, ESCA, PRAD, LIHC, KIRP, and UCS. Through comparative analysis, we discovered that ESM1 was dramatically up-regulated in esophageal cancer (ESCA) and associated with worse patient OS and DFS. The elevation of ESM1 in ESCA was confirmed by the datasets from Cancer RNA-Seq Nexus (CRN) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO). Based on Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA), we analyzed the co-expressed genes of ESM1 in ESCA, and found that ESM1 was closely implicated in cell proliferation and migration and the regulation of Janus kinase (JAK) signaling pathway. Functionally, knockdown of ESM1 significantly suppressed cell proliferation and migration, and decreased the protein level of JAK1.

CONCLUSIONS

Taken together, our results suggest for the first time that ESM1 functions as an oncogene and may be a clinical biomarker and/or therapeutic target in ESCA.