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Hu M, Li M, Lin Y, Pei J, Yao Q, Jiang L, Jin Y, Tian Y, Zhu C. Age-specific incidence trends of 32 cancers in China, 1983 to 2032: Evidence from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents. Int J Cancer 2024. [PMID: 38973577 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.35082] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2024] [Revised: 06/11/2024] [Accepted: 06/19/2024] [Indexed: 07/09/2024]
Abstract
The long-term incidence trends of 32 cancers in China remained unclear. Cancer statistics for young population were often presented in aggregate, masking important heterogeneity. We aimed to assess the incidence trends of 32 cancers in China from 1983 to 2032, stratified by sex and age groups. Data on cancer incidence from 1983 to 2017 were extracted from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes VI-XII. The age-period-cohort model was utilized to assess age and birth cohort effects on the temporal trends of 32 cancers in China, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized to project future trends from 2018 to 2032. An increase in cohort effects is observed in some cancers such as thyroid and kidney cancers. Eight of the 12 obesity-related cancers may rise in the 0-14 age group, and nine in the 15-39 age group from 2013 to 2032. Liver and stomach cancers show an increasing trend among the younger population, contrasting with the observed declining trend in the middle-aged population. There has been a significant rise in the proportions of cervical cancer among females aged 40-64 (4.3%-19.1%), and prostate cancer among males aged 65+ (1.1%-11.8%) from 1983 to 2032. Cancer spectrum in China is shifting toward that in developed countries. Incidence rates of most cancers across different age groups may increase in recent cohorts. It is essential to insist effective preventive interventions, and promote healthier lifestyles, such as reducing obesity, especially among younger population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meijing Hu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Mandi Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- The Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China
| | - Yidie Lin
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Jiao Pei
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Sichuan Cancer Hospital & Institute, Sichuan Cancer Center, School of Medicine, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China
| | - Qiang Yao
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Lin Jiang
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Yu Jin
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Yunhe Tian
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Cairong Zhu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
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Teng A, Stanley J, Jackson C, Koea J, Lao C, Lawrenson R, Meredith I, Sika-Paotonu D, Gurney J. The growing cancer burden: Age-period-cohort projections in Aotearoa New Zealand 2020-2044. Cancer Epidemiol 2024; 89:102535. [PMID: 38280359 DOI: 10.1016/j.canep.2024.102535] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2023] [Revised: 01/16/2024] [Accepted: 01/18/2024] [Indexed: 01/29/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cancer is a major cause of premature death and inequity, and global case numbers are rapidly expanding. This study projects future cancer numbers and incidence rates in Aotearoa New Zealand. METHODS Age-period-cohort modelling was applied to 25-years of national data to project cancer cases and incidence trends from 2020 to 2044. Nationally mandated cancer registry data and official historical and projected population estimates were used, with sub-groups by age, sex, and ethnicity. RESULTS Cancer diagnoses were projected to increase from 25,700 per year in 2015-2019 to 45,100 a year by 2040-44, a 76% increase (2.3% per annum). Across the same period, age-standardised cancer incidence increased by 9% (0.3% per annum) from 348 to 378 cancers per 100,000 person years, with greater increases for males (11%) than females (6%). Projected incidence trends varied substantially by cancer type, with several projected to change faster or in the opposite direction compared to projections from other countries. CONCLUSIONS Increasing cancer numbers reinforces the critical need for both cancer prevention and treatment service planning activities. Investment in developing new ways of working and increasing the workforce are required for the health system to be able to afford and manage the future burden of cancer.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea Teng
- Department of Public Health, University of Otago, PO Box 7343, Wellington, New Zealand.
| | - James Stanley
- Department of Public Health, University of Otago, PO Box 7343, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Christopher Jackson
- Department of Medicine (Dunedin), University of Otago, PO Box 56, Dunedin, New Zealand
| | - Jonathan Koea
- General Surgery, Waitakere Hospital, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand; Medical Surgery, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Chunhuan Lao
- Medical Research Centre, The University of Waikato, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton, New Zealand
| | - Ross Lawrenson
- Medical Research Centre, The University of Waikato, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton, New Zealand; Commissioning, Te Whatu Ora, Hamilton, Waikato, New Zealand
| | - Ineke Meredith
- General Surgery, Wakefield Hospital, 30 Florence Street, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Dianne Sika-Paotonu
- Dean's Department UOW & Division of Health Sciences, University of Otago, PO Box 7343, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Jason Gurney
- Department of Public Health, University of Otago, PO Box 7343, Wellington, New Zealand
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3
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Trächsel B, Rousson V, Bulliard JL, Locatelli I. Comparison of statistical models to predict age-standardized cancer incidence in Switzerland. Biom J 2023; 65:e2200046. [PMID: 37078835 DOI: 10.1002/bimj.202200046] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2022] [Revised: 02/07/2023] [Accepted: 03/01/2023] [Indexed: 04/21/2023]
Abstract
This study compares the performance of statistical methods for predicting age-standardized cancer incidence, including Poisson generalized linear models, age-period-cohort (APC) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series, and simple linear models. The methods are evaluated via leave-future-out cross-validation, and performance is assessed using the normalized root mean square error, interval score, and coverage of prediction intervals. Methods were applied to cancer incidence from the three Swiss cancer registries of Geneva, Neuchatel, and Vaud combined, considering the five most frequent cancer sites: breast, colorectal, lung, prostate, and skin melanoma and bringing all other sites together in a final group. Best overall performance was achieved by ARIMA models, followed by linear regression models. Prediction methods based on model selection using the Akaike information criterion resulted in overfitting. The widely used APC and BAPC models were found to be suboptimal for prediction, particularly in the case of a trend reversal in incidence, as it was observed for prostate cancer. In general, we do not recommend predicting cancer incidence for periods far into the future but rather updating predictions regularly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bastien Trächsel
- Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Valentin Rousson
- Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Jean-Luc Bulliard
- Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Isabella Locatelli
- Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
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4
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Ye E, Huang J, Wang J, Zhao Y, Niu D, Liu J, Huang X, Yue S, Hou X, Wu J. Trend and projection of larynx cancer incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2044: A Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study. Cancer Med 2023; 12:16517-16530. [PMID: 37306154 PMCID: PMC10469639 DOI: 10.1002/cam4.6239] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2022] [Revised: 05/23/2023] [Accepted: 06/02/2023] [Indexed: 06/13/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Larynx cancer is one of the most common cancers in head and neck, and imposes heavy burden on individual and societies. A comprehensive understanding of the burden of larynx cancer is necessary to improve prevention and control strategies. However, the secular trend of larynx cancer incidence and mortality in China remains unclear. METHODS The incidence and deaths rates of larynx cancer from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database. The temporal trend of larynx cancer was analyzed using a joinpoint regression model. The age-period-cohort model was used to explore the age, period, and cohort effects on larynx cancer and predict future trends up to 2044. RESULTS From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate of larynx cancer in China increased by 1.3% (95% CI 1.1 to 1.5) in males, but decreased by 0.5% (95% CI -0.1 to 0) in females. The age-standardized mortality rate of larynx cancer in China decreased by 0.9% (95% CI -1.1 to -0.6) and 2.2% (95% CI -2.8 to -1.7) in males and females, respectively. Among the four risk factors, smoking and alcohol use contributed to a heavier burden compared to occupational exposure to asbestos and sulfuric acid with respect to mortality. Age effects showed that the incidence and deaths of larynx cancer were concentrated in people older than 50 years old. Period effects exerted the most significant effect on larynx cancer incidence for males. In terms of cohort effects, people born in the earlier cohorts presented a higher risk of larynx cancer compared with the later cohorts. From 2020 to 2044, the age-standardized incidence rates of larynx cancer continued to increase in males, whereas the age-standardized mortality rates continued to decrease in both males and females. CONCLUSION The burden of larynx cancer in China has a significant gender difference. The age-standardized incidence rates will continue to increase in males up to 2044. The disease pattern and risk factors of larynx cancer should be comprehensively studied to promote the development of timely intervention measures and relieve the burden effectively.
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Affiliation(s)
- Enlin Ye
- Clinical Research Service CenterAffiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical UniversityZhanjiangChina
- Guangdong Engineering Research Center of Collaborative Innovation Technology of Clinical Medical Big Data Cloud Service in Medical Consortium of West Guangdong ProvinceAffiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical UniversityZhanjiangChina
| | - Jiasheng Huang
- Clinical Research Service CenterAffiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical UniversityZhanjiangChina
- Guangdong Engineering Research Center of Collaborative Innovation Technology of Clinical Medical Big Data Cloud Service in Medical Consortium of West Guangdong ProvinceAffiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical UniversityZhanjiangChina
| | - Jia Wang
- Clinical Research Service CenterAffiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical UniversityZhanjiangChina
| | - Yumei Zhao
- Clinical Research Service CenterAffiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical UniversityZhanjiangChina
| | - Dongdong Niu
- Clinical Research Service CenterAffiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical UniversityZhanjiangChina
| | - Jie Liu
- Clinical Research Service CenterAffiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical UniversityZhanjiangChina
| | - Xueying Huang
- Clinical Research Service CenterAffiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical UniversityZhanjiangChina
| | - Suru Yue
- Clinical Research Service CenterAffiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical UniversityZhanjiangChina
| | - Xuefei Hou
- Clinical Research Service CenterAffiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical UniversityZhanjiangChina
| | - Jiayuan Wu
- Clinical Research Service CenterAffiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical UniversityZhanjiangChina
- Guangdong Engineering Research Center of Collaborative Innovation Technology of Clinical Medical Big Data Cloud Service in Medical Consortium of West Guangdong ProvinceAffiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical UniversityZhanjiangChina
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Smith S, Brand M, Harden S, Briggs L, Leigh L, Brims F, Brooke M, Brunelli VN, Chia C, Dawkins P, Lawrenson R, Duffy M, Evans S, Leong T, Marshall H, Patel D, Pavlakis N, Philip J, Rankin N, Singhal N, Stone E, Tay R, Vinod S, Windsor M, Wright GM, Leong D, Zalcberg J, Stirling RG. Development of an Australia and New Zealand Lung Cancer Clinical Quality Registry: a protocol paper. BMJ Open 2022; 12:e060907. [PMID: 36038161 PMCID: PMC9438055 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-060907] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer mortality, comprising the largest national cancer disease burden in Australia and New Zealand. Regional reports identify substantial evidence-practice gaps, unwarranted variation from best practice, and variation in processes and outcomes of care between treating centres. The Australia and New Zealand Lung Cancer Registry (ANZLCR) will be developed as a Clinical Quality Registry to monitor the safety, quality and effectiveness of lung cancer care in Australia and New Zealand. METHODS AND ANALYSIS Patient participants will include all adults >18 years of age with a new diagnosis of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), SCLC, thymoma or mesothelioma. The ANZLCR will register confirmed diagnoses using opt-out consent. Data will address key patient, disease, management processes and outcomes reported as clinical quality indicators. Electronic data collection facilitated by local data collectors and local, state and federal data linkage will enhance completeness and accuracy. Data will be stored and maintained in a secure web-based data platform overseen by registry management. Central governance with binational representation from consumers, patients and carers, governance, administration, health department, health policy bodies, university research and healthcare workers will provide project oversight. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION The ANZLCR has received national ethics approval under the National Mutual Acceptance scheme. Data will be routinely reported to participating sites describing performance against measures of agreed best practice and nationally to stakeholders including federal, state and territory departments of health. Local, regional and (bi)national benchmarks, augmented with online dashboard indicator reporting will enable local targeting of quality improvement efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shantelle Smith
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Margaret Brand
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Susan Harden
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Lisa Briggs
- Victorian Lung Cancer Registry, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Lillian Leigh
- Victorian Lung Cancer Registry, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Fraser Brims
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Mark Brooke
- Lung Foundation Australia, Milton, Queensland, Australia
| | - Vanessa N Brunelli
- Faculty of Health, School of Nursing, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Collin Chia
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Launceston General Hospital, Launceston, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Paul Dawkins
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Middlemore Hospital, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Ross Lawrenson
- Waikato Medical Research Centre, University of Waikato, Hamilton, Waikato, New Zealand
- Strategy and Funding, Waikato District Health Board, Hamilton, New Zealand
| | - Mary Duffy
- Lung Cancer Service, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Sue Evans
- Victorian Cancer Registry, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Tracy Leong
- Department of Respiratory and Sleep Medicine, Austin Health, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
| | - Henry Marshall
- Department of Thoracic Medicine, The Prince Charles Hospital, Chermside, Queensland, Australia
| | - Dainik Patel
- Department of Medical Oncology, Lyell McEwin Hospital, Elizabeth Vale, South Australia, Australia
| | - Nick Pavlakis
- Medical Oncology, Genesis Care and University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Jennifer Philip
- Department of Medicine, Univ Melbourne, Fitzroy, Victoria, Australia
| | - Nicole Rankin
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Nimit Singhal
- Department of Medicine, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Emily Stone
- School of Clinical Medicine, University NSW, Sydney, Victoria, Australia
| | - Rebecca Tay
- Department of Medical Oncology, The Royal Hobart Hospital, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Shalini Vinod
- Cancer Therapy Centre, Liverpool Hospital, Liverpool, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Morgan Windsor
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Prince Charles and Royal Brisbane Hospital, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Gavin M Wright
- Department of Surgery, Cardiothoracic Surgery Unit, St Vincent, Victoria, Australia
| | - David Leong
- Department of Medical Oncology, John James Medical Centre Deakin, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - John Zalcberg
- Cancer Research Program, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Rob G Stirling
- Department of Medicine, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
- Respiratory Medicine, Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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6
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Wah W, Papa N, Ahern S, Earnest A. Forecasting of overall and aggressive prostate cancer incident counts at the small area level. Public Health 2022; 211:21-28. [PMID: 35994835 DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2022.06.029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2022] [Revised: 06/19/2022] [Accepted: 06/25/2022] [Indexed: 10/15/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This study aims to forecast overall and aggressive prostate cancer counts at the local government area (LGA) level over 10 years (2019-2028) in Victoria, Australia, using Victorian Cancer Registry (2001-2018) data. METHODS We used the Age-Period-Cohort approach to estimate the annual age-specific incidence and used Bayesian spatiotemporal models that account for non-linear temporal trends and area-level risk factors. We evaluated the models' performance by withholding and comparing forecasts with the 2014-2018 data. RESULTS There were 80,449 prostate cancer cases between 2001 and 2018, with an overall increasing trend. Compared to 2001, prostate cancer incidence increased by 69%, from 3049 to 5167 cases in 2018. Prostate cancer counts are expected to reach 7631 cases in 2028, a further 48% increase. Unexplained area-level spatial variation was substantially reduced after adjusting for the area-level elderly population. Aggressive prostate cancer cases increased by 107% between 2001 and 2018 and are expected to rise by 123% increase in 2028. The proportion of aggressive prostate cancer cases will increase to 31% in 2028 from 20% in 2018. By 2028, overall and aggressive prostate cancer cases are projected to be increasing in 66% and 61% of LGAs. CONCLUSION Prostate cancer cases are projected to rise at the state level and most LGAs in the next 10 years, with much steeper increases in aggressive cases. Population growth and an ageing population have primarily contributed to this rise besides prostate-specific antigen testing. These prediction estimates help inform prostate cancer burden and facilitate efficient healthcare delivery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Win Wah
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne 3004, Victoria, Australia.
| | - Nathan Papa
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne 3004, Victoria, Australia.
| | - Susannah Ahern
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne 3004, Victoria, Australia.
| | - Arul Earnest
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne 3004, Victoria, Australia.
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Crawford-Williams F, Koczwara B, Chan RJ, Vardy J, Lisy K, Morris J, Iddawela M, Mackay G, Jefford M. Defining research and infrastructure priorities for cancer survivorship in Australia: a modified Delphi study. Support Care Cancer 2022; 30:3805-3815. [PMID: 35031828 DOI: 10.1007/s00520-021-06744-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2021] [Accepted: 12/06/2021] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE The aim of this study was to establish research and infrastructure priorities for cancer survivorship. METHODS A two-round modified online Delphi study was completed by Australian experts in cancer survivorship. Initial priorities were generated from the literature and organized into four research categories: physiological outcomes, psychosocial outcomes, population groups, and health services; and one research infrastructure category. In round 1 (R1), panelists ranked the importance of 77 items on a five-point scale (not at all important to very important). In round 2 (R2), panelists ranked their top 5 priorities within each category. Panelists also specified the type of research needed, such as biological, exploratory, intervention development, or implementation, for the items within each research category. RESULTS Response rates were 76% (63/82) and 82% (68/82) respectively. After R1, 12 items were added, and 16 items combined or reworded. In R2, the highest prioritized research topics and the preferred type of research in each category were: biological research in cancer progression and recurrence; implementation and dissemination research for fear of recurrence; exploratory research for rare cancer types; and implementation research for quality of care topics. Data availability was listed as the most important priority for research infrastructure. CONCLUSIONS This study has defined priorities that can be used to support coordinated action between researchers, funding bodies, and other key stakeholders. Designing future research which addresses these priorities will expand our ability to meet survivors' diverse needs and lead to improved outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fiona Crawford-Williams
- Cancer and Palliative Care Outcomes Centre and School of Nursing, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia. .,Caring Futures Institute, College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University, Bedford Park, SA, Australia.
| | - Bogda Koczwara
- Flinders Centre for Innovation in Cancer, Flinders University, Bedford Park, SA, Australia.,Department of Medical Oncology, Flinders Medical Centre, Bedford Park, SA, Australia
| | - Raymond J Chan
- Cancer and Palliative Care Outcomes Centre and School of Nursing, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.,Caring Futures Institute, College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University, Bedford Park, SA, Australia.,Department of Cancer Services, Princess Alexandra Hospital, Woolloongabba, QLD, Australia
| | - Janette Vardy
- Concord Cancer Centre, Concord Repatriation General Hospital, Sydney, NSW, Australia.,Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Karolina Lisy
- Department of Health Services Research, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.,Australian Cancer Survivorship Centre, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.,Sir Peter MacCallum Department of Oncology, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Julia Morris
- Cancer Council SA, Adelaide, SA, Australia.,School of Psychology Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Mahesh Iddawela
- Latrobe Regional Hospital, Traralgon, VIC, Australia.,Alfred Health, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Gillian Mackay
- Clinical Oncology Society of Australia (COSA), Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Michael Jefford
- Department of Health Services Research, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.,Australian Cancer Survivorship Centre, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.,Sir Peter MacCallum Department of Oncology, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
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8
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Trächsel B, Rapiti E, Feller A, Rousson V, Locatelli I, Bulliard JL. Predicting the burden of cancer in Switzerland up to 2025. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 2:e0001112. [PMID: 36962605 PMCID: PMC10021406 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0001112] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2022] [Accepted: 09/20/2022] [Indexed: 03/26/2023]
Abstract
Predicting the short-term evolution of the number of cancers is essential for planning investments and allocating health resources. The objective of this study was to predict the numbers of cancer cases and of the 12 most frequent cancer sites, and their age-standardized incidence rates, for the years 2019-2025 in Switzerland. Projections of the number of malignant cancer cases were obtained by combining data from two sources: forecasts of national age-standardized cancer incidence rates and population projections from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. Age-standardized cancer incidence rates, approximating the individual cancer risk, were predicted by a low-order Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The contributions of changes in cancer risk (epidemiological component) and population aging and growth (demographic components) to the projected number of new cancer cases were each quantified. Between 2018 and 2025, age-standardized cancer incidence rates are predicted to stabilize for men and women at around 426 and 328/100,000, respectively (<1% change). These projected trends are expected for most cancer sites. The annual number of cancers is expected to increase from 45,676 to 52,552 (+15%), more so for men (+18%) than for women (+11%). These increases are almost entirely due to projected changes in population age structure (+12% for men and +6% for women) and population growth (+6% for both sexes). The rise in numbers of expected cancers for each site is forecast to range from 4.15% (thyroid in men) to 26% (bladder in men). While ranking of the three most frequent cancers will remain unchanged for men (1st prostate, 2nd lung, 3rd colon-rectum), colorectal cancer will overtake by 2025 lung cancer as the second most common female cancer in Switzerland, behind breast cancer. Effective and sustained prevention measures, as well as infrastructural interventions, are required to counter the increase in cancer cases and prevent any potential shortage of professionals in cancer care delivery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bastien Trächsel
- Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | | | - Anita Feller
- Foundation National Institute for Cancer Epidemiology and Registration (NICER), Zurich, Switzerland
- National Agency for Cancer Registration (NACR) Operated by NICER, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Valentin Rousson
- Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Isabella Locatelli
- Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Jean-Luc Bulliard
- Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
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9
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Carey RN, Whiteman DC, Webb PM, Neale RE, Reid A, Norman R, Fritschi L. The future excess fraction of cancer due to lifestyle factors in Australia. Cancer Epidemiol 2021; 75:102049. [PMID: 34710670 DOI: 10.1016/j.canep.2021.102049] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2021] [Revised: 10/08/2021] [Accepted: 10/12/2021] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Many cancers are caused by exposure to lifestyle, environmental, and occupational factors. Earlier studies have estimated the number of cancers occurring in a single year which are attributable to past exposures to these factors. However, there is now increasing appreciation that estimates of the future burden of cancer may be more useful for policy and prevention. We aimed to calculate the future number of cancers expected to arise as a result of exposure to 23 modifiable risk factors. METHODS We used the future excess fraction (FEF) method to estimate the lifetime burden of cancer (2016-2098) among Australian adults who were exposed to modifiable lifestyle, environmental, and occupational risk factors in 2016. Calculations were conducted for 26 cancer sites and 78 cancer-risk factor pairings. RESULTS The cohort of 18.8 million adult Australians in 2016 will develop an estimated 7.6 million cancers during their lifetime, of which 1.8 million (24%) will be attributable to exposure to modifiable risk factors. Cancer sites with the highest number of future attributable cancers were colon and rectum (n = 717,700), lung (n = 380,400), and liver (n = 103,200). The highest number of future cancers will be attributable to exposure to tobacco smoke (n = 583,500), followed by overweight/obesity (n = 333,100) and alcohol consumption (n = 249,700). CONCLUSION A significant proportion of future cancers will result from recent levels of exposure to modifiable risk factors. Our results provide direct, pertinent information to help determine where preventive measures could best be targeted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Renee N Carey
- School of Population Health, Curtin University, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia, Australia.
| | - David C Whiteman
- Department of Population Health, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, 300 Herston Road, Herston, Queensland, Australia
| | - Penelope M Webb
- Department of Population Health, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, 300 Herston Road, Herston, Queensland, Australia
| | - Rachel E Neale
- Department of Population Health, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, 300 Herston Road, Herston, Queensland, Australia
| | - Alison Reid
- School of Population Health, Curtin University, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Richard Norman
- School of Population Health, Curtin University, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Lin Fritschi
- School of Population Health, Curtin University, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia, Australia
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Wah W, Stirling RG, Ahern S, Earnest A. Forecasting of Lung Cancer Incident Cases at the Small-Area Level in Victoria, Australia. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:5069. [PMID: 34064949 PMCID: PMC8151486 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18105069] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2021] [Revised: 05/06/2021] [Accepted: 05/06/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Predicting lung cancer cases at the small-area level is helpful to quantify the lung cancer burden for health planning purposes at the local geographic level. Using Victorian Cancer Registry (2001-2018) data, this study aims to forecast lung cancer counts at the local government area (LGA) level over the next ten years (2019-2028) in Victoria, Australia. We used the Age-Period-Cohort approach to estimate the annual age-specific incidence and utilised Bayesian spatio-temporal models that account for non-linear temporal trends and area-level risk factors. Compared to 2001, lung cancer incidence increased by 28.82% from 1353 to 1743 cases for men and 78.79% from 759 to 1357 cases for women in 2018. Lung cancer counts are expected to reach 2515 cases for men and 1909 cases for women in 2028, with a corresponding 44% and 41% increase. The majority of LGAs are projected to have an increasing trend for both men and women by 2028. Unexplained area-level spatial variation substantially reduced after adjusting for the elderly population in the model. Male and female lung cancer cases are projected to rise at the state level and in each LGA in the next ten years. Population growth and an ageing population largely contributed to this rise.
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Affiliation(s)
- Win Wah
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia; (S.A.); (A.E.)
| | - Rob G. Stirling
- Department of Allergy, Immunology & Respiratory Medicine, Alfred Health, Melbourne 3004, Australia;
- Department of Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3168, Australia
| | - Susannah Ahern
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia; (S.A.); (A.E.)
| | - Arul Earnest
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia; (S.A.); (A.E.)
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