A novel risk model including vascular access site for predicting 30-day mortality after primary PCI: The ALPHA score

Preoperative Variables of 30-Day Mortality in Adults Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Risk adjustment following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is vital for clinical quality registries, performance monitoring, and clinical decision-making. There remains significant variation in the accuracy and nature of risk adjustment models utilised in international PCI registries/databases. Therefore, the current systematic review aims to summarise preoperative variables associated with 30-day mortality among patients undergoing PCI, and the other methodologies used in risk adjustments.

METHOD

The MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and Web of Science databases until October 2022 without any language restriction were systematically searched to identify preoperative independent variables related to 30-day mortality following PCI. Information was systematically summarised in a descriptive manner following the Checklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies checklist. The quality and risk of bias of all included articles were assessed using the Prediction Model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool. Two independent investigators took part in screening and quality assessment.

RESULTS

The search yielded 2,941 studies, of which 42 articles were included in the final assessment. Logistic regression, Cox-proportional hazard model, and machine learning were utilised by 27 (64.3%), 14 (33.3%), and one (2.4%) article, respectively. A total of 74 independent preoperative variables were identified that were significantly associated with 30-day mortality following PCI. Variables that repeatedly used in various models were, but not limited to, age (n=36, 85.7%), renal disease (n=29, 69.0%), diabetes mellitus (n=17, 40.5%), cardiogenic shock (n=14, 33.3%), gender (n=14, 33.3%), ejection fraction (n=13, 30.9%), acute coronary syndrome (n=12, 28.6%), and heart failure (n=10, 23.8%). Nine (9; 21.4%) studies used missing values imputation, and 15 (35.7%) articles reported the model's performance (discrimination) with values ranging from 0.501 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.472-0.530) to 0.928 (95% CI 0.900-0.956), and four studies (9.5%) validated the model on external/out-of-sample data.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk adjustment models need further improvement in their quality through the inclusion of a parsimonious set of clinically relevant variables, appropriately handling missing values and model validation, and utilising machine learning methods.

Contemporary Risk Models for In-Hospital and 30-Day Mortality After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Risk models for mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are underutilized in clinical practice though they may be useful during informed consent, risk mitigation planning, and risk adjustment of hospital and operator outcomes. This review analyzed contemporary risk models for in-hospital and 30-day mortality after PCI.

RECENT FINDINGS

We reviewed eight contemporary risk models. Age, sex, hemodynamic status, acute coronary syndrome type, heart failure, and kidney disease were consistently found to be independent risk factors for mortality. These models provided good discrimination (C-statistic 0.85-0.95) for both pre-catheterization and comprehensive risk models that included anatomic variables. There are several excellent models for PCI mortality risk prediction. Choice of the model will depend on the use case and population, though the CathPCI model should be the default for in-hospital mortality risk prediction in the United States. Future interventions should focus on the integration of risk prediction into clinical care.

Assessment of In-Hospital Mortality and Its Risk Factors in Patients with Myocardial Infarction Considering the Logistical Aspects of the Treatment Process-A Single-Center, Retrospective, Observational Study

Technological progress, such as the launching of a new generation of drug-coated stents as well as new antiplatelet drugs, has resulted in the treatment of myocardial infarction (MI) becoming much more effective. The aim of this study was to assess in-hospital mortality and to conduct an assessment of risk factors relevant to the in-hospital death of patients with MI. This study was based on an observational hospital registry of patients with MI (ACS GRU registry). For the purpose of the statistical analysis of the risk factors of death, a univariate logistic regression model was applied. In-hospital general mortality amounted to 7.27%. A higher death risk was confirmed in the following cases: (1) serious adverse events (SAEs) that occurred during the procedure; (2) patients transferred from another department of a hospital (OR = 2.647, p = 0.0056); (3) primary percutaneous coronary angioplasty performed on weekdays between 10 p.m. and 8 a.m. (OR = 2.540, p = 0.0146). The influence of workload and operator experience on the risk of death in a patient with MI has not been confirmed. The results of this study indicate the increasing importance of new risk factors for in-hospital death in patients with MI, such as selected logistical aspects of the MI treatment process and individual SAEs.

Admission lactate level and the GRACE 2.0 score are independent and additive predictors of 30-day mortality of STEMI patients treated with primary PCI-Results of a real-world registry

BACKGROUND

In many of the risk estimation algorithms for patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), heart rate and systolic blood pressure are key predictors. Yet, these parameters may also be altered by the applied medical treatment / circulatory support without concomitant improvement in microcirculation. Therefore, we aimed to investigate whether venous lactate level, a well-known marker of microcirculatory failure, may have an added prognostic value on top of the conventional variables of the "Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events" (GRACE) 2.0 model for predicting 30-day all-cause mortality of STEMI patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

METHODS

In a prospective single-center registry study conducted from May 2020 through April 2021, we analyzed data of 323 cases. Venous blood gas analysis was performed in all patients at admission. Nested logistic regression models were built using the GRACE 2.0 score alone (base model) and with the addition of venous lactate level (expanded model) with 30-day all-cause mortality as primary outcome measure. Difference in model performance was analyzed by the likelihood ratio (LR) test and the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Independence of the predictors was evaluated by the variance inflation factor (VIF). Discrimination and calibration was characterized by the c-statistic and calibration intercept / slope, respectively.

RESULTS

Addition of lactate level to the GRACE 2.0 score improved the predictions of 30-day mortality significantly as assessed by both LR test (LR Chi-square = 8.7967, p = 0.0030) and IDI (IDI = 0.0685, p = 0.0402), suggesting that the expanded model may have better predictive ability than the GRACE 2.0 score. Furthermore, the VIF was 1.1203, indicating that the measured lactate values were independent of the calculated GRACE 2.0 scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that admission venous lactate level and the GRACE 2.0 score may be independent and additive predictors of 30-day all-cause mortality of STEMI patients treated with primary PCI.

Predictors of Hospital Mortality Based on Primary Angioplasty Treatment: A Multicenter Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND

Identification of high-risk patients undergoing primary angioplasty (PCI) is essential.

OBJECTIVE

Identify factors related to the causes of death in PCI patients.

METHODS

This work consisted of a multicenter case-control study using a Brazilian registry of cardiovascular interventions as the data source. The association between each variable and death was assessed using a binary logistic regression model, p <0.05 was considered significant.

RESULTS

A total of 26,990 records were analyzed, of which 18,834 (69.8%) were male patients, with a median age of 61 (±17) years. In the multivariate analysis, the main variables related to the causes of death with their respective odds ratios and 95%confidence intervals (CI) were advanced age, 70-79 years (2.46; 1.64-3.79) and ≥ 80 years (3.69; 2.38-5.81), p<0.001; the classification of Killip II (2.71; 1.92-3.83), Killip III (8.14; 5.67-11.64), and Killip IV (19.83; 14.85-26.69), p<0.001; accentuated global dysfunction (3.63; 2,39-5.68), p<0.001; and the occurrence of infarction after intervention (5.01; 2.57-9.46), p<0.001. The main protective factor was the post-intervention thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) III flow (0.18; 0.13-0.24), p<0.001, followed by TIMI II (0.59; 0.41 -0.86), p=0.005, and male (0.79; 0.64-0.98), p = 0.032; dyslipidemia (0.69; 0.59-0.85), p<0.001; and number of lesions treated (0.86; 0.9-0.94), p<0.001.

CONCLUSION

The predictors of mortality in patients undergoing PCI were Killip's classification, reinfarction, advanced age, severe left ventricular dysfunction, female gender, and post-intervention TIMI 0 / I flow.

A nomogram predicting 30-day mortality in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention

Background and aims

Early detection of mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is crucial, whereas most risk prediction models are based on outdated cohorts before the year 2000. This study aimed to establish a nomogram predicting 30-day mortality after PCI.

Materials and methods

In total, 10,444 patients undergoing PCI in National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases in China were enrolled to establish a nomogram to predict 30-day mortality after PCI. The nomogram was generated by incorporating parameters selected by logistic regression with the stepwise backward method.

Results

Five features were selected to build the nomogram, including age, male sex, cardiac dysfunction, STEMI, and TIMI 0–2 after PCI. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated, and the area under the curves (AUC) was 0.881 (95% CI: 0.8–0.961). Our nomogram exhibited better performance than a previous risk model (AUC = 0.7, 95% CI: 0.586–0.813) established by Brener et al. The survival curve successfully stratified the patients above and below the median score of 4.

Conclusion

A novel nomogram for predicting 30-day mortality was established in unselected patients undergoing PCI, which may help risk stratification in clinical practice.

Mortality prediction algorithms for patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention

Mortality risk of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients shows high variability. In order to assess individual risk, a number of scoring systems have been developed and validated. Yet, as treatment approaches evolve over time with improving outcomes, there is a need to build new risk prediction algorithms to maintain/increase prognostic accuracy. One of the most relevant improvements of therapy is primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We overview the characteristics and discriminative performance of the most studied and some recently constructed mortality risk models that were validated in patients with STEMI who underwent primary PCI.

Prognostic impact of the SYNTAX score II in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention: analysis of a four-year all-comers registry

AIMS

This study aimed to investigate the prognostic impact of the SYNTAX score II (SS-II) on ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients undergoing a primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI).

METHODS AND RESULTS

This retrospective cohort study included 1,689 patients with STEMI who underwent pPCI between January 2008 and December 2016. The patients were categorised into three groups based on SS-II tertiles (SS-II low tertile <24 [n=585], SS-II intermediate tertile ≥24 and ≤34 [n=567], and SS-II high tertile >34 [n=537]). In-hospital mortality was significantly lower in patients with low and mid SS-II when compared with high SS-II (0.7% vs 0.5% vs 16.4%, p=0.001). During follow-up (median 2.35 years), a high SS-II was positively correlated with MACE (12.3% for low SS-II vs 18.3% for mid SS-II vs 43.2% for high SS-II, p=0.001), all-cause mortality (1.5% vs 3.9% vs 14.2%, p=0.001) and heart failure (0.3% vs 2.7% vs 8.2%, p=0.001). The SS-II showed additive value on top of GRACE, anatomical SYNTAX score and residual SYNTAX score.

CONCLUSIONS

The SS-II in patients with STEMI undergoing pPCI adds important prognostic information regarding midterm adverse outcomes, being an independent and powerful predictor of MACE, heart failure and all-cause mortality during follow-up.

Impact of Selective Aspiration Thrombectomy on Mortality in Patients With ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Although routine aspiration thrombectomy (AT) is not recommended by the current American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association/Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions guideline, for selected cases, a class IIb indication is given because of lack of data. We studied the impact of selective AT on mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction using a prospective registry. We analyzed data of 1,255 patients, of whom 535 underwent AT based on operator's decision. Separate propensity score matching procedures were performed including all patients and only those with initial TIMI (Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction) 0 to 1 flow, indicating the highest thrombus burden. Primary outcome measure was time to all-cause death at 1 year. Both studies were sufficiently powered to detect the hazard ratio (HR) of 0.52 seen in the TAPAS (Thrombus Aspiration during Percutaneous coronary intervention in Acute myocardial infarction Study) trial. In the study with open inclusion criteria, 1-year mortality rates were 15.5% and 14.5% in the AT and conventional percutaneous coronary intervention arm, respectively (p = 0.77). The unadjusted HR was 1.05 (95% CI 0.73 to 1.51), p = 0.80, whereas the adjusted HR was 0.97 (95% CI 0.66 to 1.41), p = 0.87. In patients with initial TIMI 0 to 1 flow, mortality rate at 1 year was 15.6% in the AT and 16.7% in the standard percutaneous coronary intervention group (p = 0.76). The unadjusted and adjusted HRs were similar: 0.91 (95% CI 0.62 to 1.34), p = 0.65 and 0.93 (95% CI 0.62 to 1.37), p = 0.70, respectively. In conclusion, selective AT based on operator's discretion offers no mortality benefit of the magnitude detected in the TAPAS trial, even for patients with initial TIMI 0 to 1 flow grade.