A nomogram for predicting prognostic value of inflammatory biomarkers in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Association of albumin, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio and lymphocytes with clinical stage in cervical cancer patients

OBJECTIVE

To determinate the association between of albumin, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio and lymphocytes (NLR) with clinical stage in cervical cancers.

METHODS

Design a retrospective cross-sectional study of consecutive subjects diagnosed with cervical cancer for the first time. The Bethesda system was used for histological diagnosis and the subjects were stratified with the FIGO system, considering stages IA to IIB as localized; while, IIIA and IVB as advanced stages. Albumin, NLR and lymphocytes were evaluated as inflammatory biomarkers and the cut-off points generated by the ROC curves were albumin < 3 mg/dL, NLR ≥ 2.0 and lymphocytes < 1.2 103/ul. The association was calculated by Odds Ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

A total of 152 patients were analyzed, with mean age of 49.3 ± 14.0 years. Epidermoid cancer was the most frequent in 70.6% and 51.3% were classified as advanced clinical stages. A bivariate analysis showed significant relationships between advanced clinical stages and albumin < 3 mg/dL with OR 5.72 (CI95% 2.62-12.4; p < 0.001); for NLR ≥ 2.0 an OR 2.53 (CI95% 1.34-4.89; p = 0.005) and for lymphocytes < 1.2 103/ul of OR 3.39 (CI95% = 1.73-6.65; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Albumin levels < 3 mg/dL, NLR ≥ 2.0 and lymphocytes < 1.2 103/ul, were associated with advanced stages in subjects with cervical cancer.

A novel prognostic nomogram for older patients with acute-on-chronic liver diseases (AoCLD): a nationwide, multicentre, prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

the incidence of acute-on-chronic liver disease (AoCLD) is increasing.

OBJECTIVE

to investigate the clinical features and risk factors of AoCLD and construct an effective prognostic nomogram model for older patients with AoCLD.

METHODS

data from 3,970 patients included in the CATCH-LIFE study were used, including 2,600 and 1,370 patients in the training and validation sets, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify predictive risk factors in older individuals, and an easy-to-use nomogram was established. Performance was assessed using area under the curve, calibration plots and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

of the 3,949 patients with AoCLD, 809 were older with a higher proportion of autoimmune-related abnormalities, hepatitis C viral infection and schistosomiasis. In the older patient group, the incidence of cirrhosis, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), infection, ascites and gastrointestinal bleeding; neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), aspartate-to-alanine transaminase ratio (AST/ALT), creatinine and blood urea nitrogen levels were higher, whereas incidence of acute-on-chronic liver failure, white blood cell, platelet and haemoglobin levels; albumin, total bilirubin (TB), AST and ALT levels; international normalised ratio (INR), estimated glomerular filtration rate and blood potassium levels were lower than in the younger group. The final nomogram was developed based on the multivariate Cox analysis in training cohort using six risk factors: ascites, HE grades, NLR, TB, INR and AST/ALT. Liver transplantation-free mortality predictions were comparable between the training and validation sets. DCA showed higher net benefit for the nomograph than the treat-all or treat-none strategies, with wider threshold probabilities ranges.

CONCLUSIONS

our analysis will assist clinical predictions and prognoses in older patients with AoCLD.

Prognostic Nomogram for Patients with Hepatitis E Virus-related Acute Liver Failure: A Multicenter Study in China

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Timely and effective assessment scoring systems for predicting the mortality of patients with hepatitis E virus-related acute liver failure (HEV-ALF) are urgently needed. The present study aimed to establish an effective nomogram for predicting the mortality of HEV-ALF patients.

METHODS

The nomogram was based on a cross-sectional set of 404 HEV-ALF patients who were identified and enrolled from a cohort of 650 patients with liver failure. To compare the performance with that of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring and CLIF-Consortium-acute-on-chronic liver failure score (CLIF-C-ACLFs) models, we assessed the predictive accuracy of the nomogram using the concordance index (C-index), and its discriminative ability using time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (td-ROC) analysis, respectively.

RESULTS

Multivariate logistic regression analysis of the development set carried out to predict mortality revealed that γ-glutamyl transpeptidase, albumin, total bilirubin, urea nitrogen, creatinine, international normalized ratio, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio were independent factors, all of which were incorporated into the new nomogram to predict the mortality of HEV-ALF patients. The area under the curve of this nomogram for mortality prediction was 0.671 (95% confidence interval: 0.602-0.740), which was higher than that of the MELD and CLIF-C-ACLFs models. Moreover, the td-ROC and decision curves analysis showed that both discriminative ability and threshold probabilities of the nomogram were superior to those of the MELD and CLIF-C-ACLFs models. A similar trend was observed in the validation set.

CONCLUSIONS

The novel nomogram is an accurate and efficient mortality prediction method for HEV-ALF patients.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for 90-day Outcome in Patients with Hepatitis B Virus-related Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure

Background and Aims

It is challenging to predict the 90-day outcomes of patients infected with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) via prevailing predictive models. This study aimed to develop an innovative model to enhance the analytical efficacy of 90-day mortality in HBV-ACLF.

Methods

In this study, 149 HBV-ACLF patients were evaluated by constructing a death risk prediction nomogram. Bootstrap resampling and an independent validation cohort comprising 31 patients from June 2019 to February 2020 were assessed for model confirmation.

Results

The nomogram was constructed by entering and identifying five factors (age, total bilirubin, prothrombin activity (PTA), lymphocyte (L)%, and monocyte (M)%. Healthy refinement was achieved from the nomogram analysis, where the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.864 for the training cohort and 0.874 was achieved for the validation cohort. There was admirable concordance between the predicted and true results in the equilibrium curve. The decision curve assessment revealed the useful clinical application of the nomogram.

Conclusions

We constructed an innovative nomogram and validated it for the prediction of 90-day HBV-ACLF patient outcomes. This model might help develop optimized treatment protocol recommendations for HBV-ACLF patients.

Derivation and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting 90-Day Survival in Patients With HBV-Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Background: Conventional prognostic models do not fully reflect the severity of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). This study aimed to establish an effective and convenient nomogram for patients with HBV-related ACLF. Methods: A nomogram was developed based on a retrospective cohort of 1,353 patients treated at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from January 2010 to June 2016. The predictive accuracy and discriminatory ability of the nomogram were determined by a concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve, and were compared with current scoring systems. The results were validated using an independent retrospective cohort of 669 patients consecutively treated at the same institution from July 2016 to March 2018. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03992898). Results: Multivariable analysis of the derivation cohort found that independent predictors of 90-day survival were age, white blood cell (WBC) count, hemoglobin (Hb), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total bilirubin (TBil), international normalized ratio, serum creatinine (Cr), alpha fetoprotein (AFP), serum sodium (Na), hepatic encephalopathy (HE), pre-existing chronic liver disease(PreLD), and HBV DNA load. All factors were included in the nomogram. The nomogram calibration curve for the probability of 90-day survival indicated that nomogram-based predictions were in good agreement with actual observations. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.790, which was statistically significantly greater than those for the current scoring systems in the derivation cohort (P < 0.001). The results were confirmed in the validation cohort. Conclusions: The proposed nomogram is more accurate in predicting the 90-day survival of patients with HBV-related ACLF than current commonly used methods.

Circulating Neutrophil Dysfunction in HBV-Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Background and Aims

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is characterized by systemic inflammation accompanied by defective anti-bacterial immunity. The role of neutrophils in immune derangement of ACLF has not been fully elucidated. This study is aimed to characterize the role of circulating neutrophils in HBV-related ACLF patients.

Methods

Quantitative, phenotypic, transcriptomic, and functional alterations of circulating neutrophils were compared in ACLF and non-ACLF subjects and analyzed for associations with short-term outcomes. Interventional experiments were performed to test the impact on ACLF-patient neutrophil function in vitro.

Results

Circulating absolute neutrophil count was significantly increased in patients with ACLF and was an independent risk factor for 28-day mortality. ACLF-patient neutrophils differentially expressed a panel of surface markers (include TLR-1, TLR-2, TLR-4, CEACAM-1 and FPR1), as well as a distinct transcriptomic signature. ACLF-neutrophils displayed significantly impaired phagocytosis but an increased capacity to form neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs), which was more pronounced in patients with poor outcome. Healthy neutrophils mimicked functional characteristics of ACLF counterpart after co-cultured with plasma from ACLF patients. The oxidative burst and cytokine production capacities remained unchanged. Plasma GM-CSF, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, and IP-10 levels, as well as lipopolysaccharide (LPS) concentration, were markedly elevated in ACLF patients but not DAMP molecules HMGB-1 and HSP70. Finally, a glycolysis inhibitor, 2-deoxy-glucose, reduced NET formation of ACLF patients’ neutrophils.

Conclusions

Circulating ACLF-patient neutrophils exhibit alterations in number, phenotype, gene expression and function, which was associated with poor outcome and shaped by the ACLF circulatory environment. Inhibiting glycolysis can reverse neutrophil dysfunction in ACLF patients.

Nomogram based on blood lipoprotein for estimation of mortality in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a clinic syndrome with substantial high short-term mortality. It is very important to stratify patients according to prognosis to decide management strategy. This study aimed to formulate and validate a nomogram model based on blood lipoprotein for prediction of 3-month mortality in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related ACLF.

METHODS

Data on 393 consecutive patients who were diagnosed as HBV-related ACLF at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University between June 1, 2013, and February 1, 2015, were prospectively collected. Of these, 260 patients who were collected in an earlier period formed the training cohort for the development of nomogram, while 133 patients who were collected thereafter formed the validation cohort for confirming the performance of nomogram.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis showed that low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), age, prothrombin time, and creatinine were independently associated with 3-month mortality of patients with HBV-related ACLF. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that the high LDL-C (LDL-C ≥ 1.0 mmol/L, cut-off value) was significantly associated with elevated overall survival (P < 0.001). All independent factors for survival were selected into the nomogram. The calibration plot for the probability of survival showed good agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation.

CONCLUSION

This study highlighted that reduction of serum LDL-C level was an independent risk factor for the survival in patients with HBV-related ACLF, and the nomogram based on serum LDL-C was an accurate and practical model for predicting the 3-month mortality in patients with this disease.

A nomogram to predict mortality in patients with severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome at the early stage-A multicenter study in China

Background

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) caused by the SFTS virus is an emerging infectious disease that was first identified in the rural areas of China in 2011. Severe cases often result in death due to multiple organ failure. To date, there are still numerous problems remain unresolved in SFTS, including unclear pathogenesis, lack of specific treatment, and no effective vaccines available.

Aim

To analyze the clinical information of patients with early-stage SFTS and to establish a nomogram for the mortality risk.

Methods

Between April 2011 and December 2018, data on consecutive patients who were diagnosed with SFTS were prospectively collected from five medical centers distributed in central and northeastern China. Multivariable Cox analyses were used to identify the factors independently associated with mortality. A nomogram for mortality was established using those factors.

Results

During the study period, 429 consecutive patients were diagnosed with SFTS at the early stage of the disease (within 7 days of fever), among whom 69 (16.1%) died within 28 days. The multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analysis showed that low lymphocyte percentage, early-stage encephalopathy, and elevated concentration of serum LDH and BUN were independent risk factors for fatal outcomes. Received-operating characteristic curves for 7-, 14-, and 28-days survival had AUCs of 0.944 (95% CI: 0.920–0.968), 0.924 (95% CI: 0.896–0.953), and 0.924 (95% CI: 0.895–0.952), respectively. Among low-risk patients, 6 patients died (2.2%). Among moderate-risk patients, 25 patients died (24.0%, hazard ratio (HR) = 11.957). Among high-risk patients, the mortality rate was 69.1% (HR = 57.768).

Conclusion

We established a simple and practical clinical scoring system, through which we can identify critically ill patients and provide intensive medical intervention for patients as soon as possible to reduce mortality.

We established a SFTS nomogram scoring system, which is the first nomogram for this disease. According to this nomogram, patients were divided into three levels of mortality risk: low, moderate, and high. This scoring system is helpful to identify critically ill patients, allowing for early intervention and intensive care, which may contribute to reducing the mortality of SFTS.

Haematologic indices in hepatitis B virus-related liver disease

Several markers and prognostic scores have been identified for predicting the development and progression of liver disease; among them, haematological parameters (the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), monocyte to lymphocyte ratio (MLR), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR), red cell distribution width (RDW), RDW to platelet ratio (RPR), mean platelet volume (MPV), and mean corpuscular volume (MCV)) have recently gained significant interest. Compared with traditional prognostic factors, haematological indices are easy to obtain and relatively inexpensive. There is growing evidence that these haematological indices play a key role in HBV-related liver diseases and has been proposed as a predictive marker of adverse outcomes in these patients. This article focuses on discussing the diagnostic and prognostic value of the haematological indices in patients with HBV-related liver diseases.

RDW, NLR and RLR in predicting liver failure and prognosis in patients with hepatitis E virus infection

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection contributes to substantial proportion of acute liver injury. This study aims to evaluate the ability of red cell distribution width (RDW), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and RDW to lymphocyte ratio (RLR) in predicating the development of liver failure following HEV infection and the prognosis.

METHODS

93 healthy controls, 152 current/recent HEV infected patients without liver failure (HEV-non-LF) and 62 HEV patients who developed liver failure (HEV-LF) were enrolled in the study. The clinical and laboratory characteristics on admission, including RDW, neutrophil, lymphocyte, were recorded. Additional 24 HEV-LF patients and 24 HEV-non-LF patients were enrolled to validate the diagnostic efficacy of the three parameters.

RESULTS

RDW, NLR and RLR were higher in HEV patients developing liver failure, compared with HEV-non-LF patients. Positive associations of increased RDW, RLR, NLR and incidence of liver failure were found. The AUC of RLR for predicting HEV-related liver failure was 0.74, superior to NLR and RDW. The sensitivity and specificity of RLR for predicting HEV-related liver failure were 0.74 and 0.65 respectively, superior to NLR (0.66, 0.70) and RDW (0.58, 0.67). However, no correlation between any of the three parameters and prognosis of HEV-LF was found. In addition, the three parameters were correlated with ALB, TBIL and Child-Pugh score in HEV-non-LF subjects, other than in HEV-LF patients.

CONCLUSION

RDW, NLR and RLR are capable to predicate the development of liver failure in HEV patients, among which RLR showed the best sensitivity and specificity. These routinely available parameters shall be considered as new preliminarily diagnostic markers for fulminant hepatic damage in HEV patients.

Low Platelet to White Blood Cell Ratio Indicates Poor Prognosis for Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure

Background. Platelet to white blood cell ratio (PWR) was an independent prognostic predictor for outcomes in some diseases. However, the prognostic role of PWR is still unclear in patients with hepatitis B related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). In this study, we evaluated the clinical performances of PWR in predicting prognosis in HBV-related ACLF. Methods. A total of 530 subjects were recruited, including 97 healthy controls and 433 with HBV-related ACLF. Liver function, prothrombin time activity (PTA), international normalized ratio (INR), HBV DNA measurement, and routine hematological testing were performed at admission. Results. At baseline, PWR in patients with HBV-related ACLF (14.03 ± 7.17) was significantly decreased compared to those in healthy controls (39.16 ± 9.80). Reduced PWR values were clinically associated with the severity of liver disease and the increased mortality rate. Furthermore, PWR may be an inexpensive, easily accessible, and significant independent prognostic index for mortality on multivariate analysis (HR = 0.660, 95% CI: 0.438-0.996, p = 0.048) as well as model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. Conclusions. The PWR values were markedly decreased in ACLF patients compared with healthy controls and associated with severe liver disease. Moreover, PWR was an independent prognostic indicator for the mortality rate in patients with ACLF. This investigation highlights that PWR comprised a useful biomarker for prediction of liver severity.