Dynamic treatment regimens in small n, sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trials: An application in focal segmental glomerulosclerosis

Addressing sequential and concurrent treatment regimens in a small n sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trial (snSMART) in the MISTIC study

Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in children (MIS-C) is a rare and novel pediatric complication linked to COVID-19 exposure, which was first identified in April 2020. A small n, Sequential, Multiple Assignment, Randomized Trial (snSMART) was applied to the Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome Therapies in Children Comparative Effectiveness Study (MISTIC) to efficiently evaluate multiple competing treatments. In the MISTIC snSMART study, participants are randomized to one of three interventions (steroids, infliximab or anakinra), and potentially re-randomized to the remaining two treatments depending on their response to the first randomized treatment. However, given the novelty and urgency of the MIS-C disease, in addition to patient welfare concerns, treatments were not always administered sequentially, but allowed to be administered concurrently if deemed medically necessary. We propose a pragmatic modification to the original snSMART design to address the analysis of concurrent versus sequential treatments in the MISTIC study. A modified Bayesian joint stage model is developed that can distinguish a concurrent treatment effect from a sequential treatment effect. A simulation study is conducted to demonstrate the improved accuracy and efficiency of the primary aim to estimate the first stage treatments' response rates and the secondary aim to estimate the combined first and second stage treatments' responses in the proposed model compared to the standard snSMART Bayesian joint stage model. We observed that the modified model has improved efficiency in terms of bias and rMSE under large sample size settings.

Efficient and robust approaches for analysis of sequential multiple assignment randomized trials: Illustration using the ADAPT-R trial

Personalized intervention strategies, in particular those that modify treatment based on a participant's own response, are a core component of precision medicine approaches. Sequential multiple assignment randomized trials (SMARTs) are growing in popularity and are specifically designed to facilitate the evaluation of sequential adaptive strategies, in particular those embedded within the SMART. Advances in efficient estimation approaches that are able to incorporate machine learning while retaining valid inference can allow for more precise estimates of the effectiveness of these embedded regimes. However, to the best of our knowledge, such approaches have not yet been applied as the primary analysis in SMART trials. In this paper, we present a robust and efficient approach using targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) for estimating and contrasting expected outcomes under the dynamic regimes embedded in a SMART, together with generating simultaneous confidence intervals for the resulting estimates. We contrast this method with two alternatives (G-computation and inverse probability weighting estimators). The precision gains and robust inference achievable through the use of TMLE to evaluate the effects of embedded regimes are illustrated using both outcome-blind simulations and a real-data analysis from the Adaptive Strategies for Preventing and Treating Lapses of Retention in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Care (ADAPT-R) trial (NCT02338739), a SMART with a primary aim of identifying strategies to improve retention in HIV care among people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa.

Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome therapies in children (MISTIC): A randomized trial

Background

Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C), which occurs 2-6 weeks after initial exposure to SARS-CoV-2, was first identified in early 2020 when patients presented with fever and significant inflammation, often requiring management in the intensive care unit. To date, there has been no clinical trial to determine the most effective treatment. This study compares anti-inflammatory treatments that were selected based on current treatments for Kawasaki disease, a coronary artery vasculitis that shares many clinical features with MIS-C.

Methods

This randomized, comparative effectiveness trial of children with MIS-C uses the small N Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial (snSMART) design for rare diseases to compare multiple therapies within an individual. Study participants were treated first with intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG), and if needed, subjects were then randomized to one of three additional treatments (steroids, anakinra, or infliximab). Participants were re-randomized to remaining treatments if they did not demonstrate clinical improvement.

Conclusion

This trial continues to enroll eligible participants to determine the most effective therapies in addition to IVIG and best order in which to use them to treat MIS-C.

Trial Registration

NCT04898231.

Power prior models for estimating response rates in a small n, sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trial

A small n, sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trial (snSMART) is a small sample, two-stage design where participants receive up to two treatments sequentially, but the second treatment depends on response to the first treatment. The parameters of interest in an snSMART are the first-stage response rates of the treatments, but outcomes from both stages can be used to obtain more information from a small sample. A novel way to incorporate the outcomes from both stages uses power prior models, in which first stage outcomes from an snSMART are regarded as the primary (internal) data and second stage outcomes are regarded as supplemental data (co-data). We apply existing power prior models to snSMART data, and we also develop new extensions of power prior models. All methods are compared to each other and to the Bayesian joint stage model (BJSM) via simulation studies. By comparing the biases and the efficiency of the response rate estimates among all proposed power prior methods, we suggest application of Fisher's Exact Test or the Bhattacharyya's overlap measure to an snSMART to estimate the response rates in an snSMART, which both have performance mostly as good or better than the BJSM. We describe the situations where each of these suggested approaches is preferred.

Application of Bayesian methods to accelerate rare disease drug development: scopes and hurdles

Background

Design and analysis of clinical trials for rare and ultra-rare disease pose unique challenges to the practitioners. Meeting conventional power requirements is infeasible for diseases where sample sizes are inherently very small. Moreover, rare disease populations are generally heterogeneous and widely dispersed, which complicates study enrollment and design. Leveraging all available information in rare and ultra-rare disease trials can improve both drug development and informed decision-making processes.

Main text

Bayesian statistics provides a formal framework for combining all relevant information at all stages of the clinical trial, including trial design, execution, and analysis. This manuscript provides an overview of different Bayesian methods applicable to clinical trials in rare disease. We present real or hypothetical case studies that address the key needs of rare disease drug development highlighting several specific Bayesian examples of clinical trials. Advantages and hurdles of these approaches are discussed in detail. In addition, we emphasize the practical and regulatory aspects in the context of real-life applications.

Conclusion

The use of innovative trial designs such as master protocols and complex adaptive designs in conjunction with a Bayesian approach may help to reduce sample size, select the correct treatment and population, and accurately and reliably assess the treatment effect in the rare disease setting.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13023-022-02342-5.

Interventions for focal segmental glomerulosclerosis in adults

BACKGROUND

Focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) can be separated into primary, genetic or secondary causes. Primary disease results in nephrotic syndrome while genetic and secondary forms may be associated with asymptomatic proteinuria or with nephrotic syndrome. Overall only about 20% of patients with FSGS experience a partial or complete remission of nephrotic syndrome with treatment. FSGS progresses to kidney failure in about half of the cases. This is an update of a review first published in 2008.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the benefits and harms of immunosuppressive and non-immunosuppressive treatment regimens in adults with FSGS.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Kidney and Transplant Register of Studies to 21 June 2021 through contact with the Information Specialist using search terms relevant to this review. Studies in the Register are identified through searches of CENTRAL, MEDLINE, and EMBASE, conference proceedings, the International Clinical Trials Register (ICTRP) Search Portal and ClinicalTrials.gov.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs of any intervention for FSGS in adults were included. Studies comparing different types, routes, frequencies, and duration of immunosuppressive agents and non-immunosuppressive agents were assessed.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

At least two authors independently assessed study quality and extracted data. Statistical analyses were performed using the random-effects model and results were expressed as a risk ratio (RR) for dichotomous outcomes, or mean difference (MD) for continuous data with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Confidence in the evidence was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach.

MAIN RESULTS

Fifteen studies (560 participants) were included. No studies specifically evaluating corticosteroids compared with placebo or supportive therapy were identified. Studies evaluated participants with steroid-resistant FSGS. Five studies (240 participants) compared cyclosporin with or without prednisone with different comparators (no specific treatment, prednisone, methylprednisolone, mycophenolate mofetil (MMF), dexamethasone). Three small studies compared monoclonal antibodies (adalimumab, fresolimumab) with other agents or placebo. Six single small studies compared rituximab with tacrolimus, cyclosporin plus valsartan with cyclosporin alone, MMF with prednisone, chlorambucil plus methylprednisolone and prednisone with no specific treatment, different regimens of dexamethasone and CCX140-B (an antagonist of the chemokine receptor CCR2) with placebo. The final study (109 participants) compared sparsentan, a dual inhibitor of endothelin Type A receptor and of the angiotensin II Type 1 receptor, with irbesartan. In the risk of bias assessment, seven and five studies were at low risk of bias for sequence generation and allocation concealment, respectively. Four studies were at low risk of performance bias and 14 studies were at low risk of detection bias. Thirteen, six and five studies were at low risk of attrition bias, reporting bias and other bias, respectively. Of five studies evaluating cyclosporin, four could be included in our meta-analyses (231 participants). Cyclosporin with or without prednisone compared with different comparators may increase the likelihood of complete remission (RR 2.31, 95% CI 1.13 to 4.73; I² = 1%; low certainty evidence) and of complete or partial remission (RR 1.64, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.44; I² = 19%) but not of partial remission (RR 1.36, 95% CI 0.78 to 2.39, I² = 22%). In Individual studies, cyclosporin with prednisone versus prednisone may increase the likelihood of partial (49 participants: RR 7.96, 95% CI 1.09 to 58.15) or complete or partial remission (49 participants: RR 8.85, 95% CI 1.22 to 63.92) but not of complete remission. The remaining individual comparisons may make little or no difference to the likelihood of complete remission, partial remission or complete or partial remission compared with no treatment, methylprednisolone, MMF, or dexamethasone. Individual study data and combined data showed that cyclosporin may make little or no difference to the outcomes of chronic kidney disease or kidney failure. It is uncertain whether cyclosporin compared with these comparators in individual or combined analyses makes any difference to the outcomes of hypertension or infection. MMF compared with prednisone may make little or no difference to the likelihood of complete remission (33 participants: RR 1.05, 95% CI 0.58 to 1.88; low certainty evidence), partial remission, complete or partial remission, glomerular filtration rate, or infection. It is uncertain whether other interventions make any difference to outcomes as the certainty of the evidence is very low. It is uncertain whether sparsentan reduces proteinuria to a greater extent than irbesartan.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

No RCTs, which evaluated corticosteroids, were identified although the KDIGO guidelines recommend corticosteroids as the first treatment for adults with FSGS. The studies identified included participants with steroid-resistant FSGS. Treatment with cyclosporin for at least six months was more likely to achieve complete remission of proteinuria compared with other treatments but there was considerable imprecision due to few studies and small participant numbers. In future studies of existing or new interventions, the investigators must clearly define the populations included in the study to provide appropriate recommendations for patients with primary, genetic or secondary FSGS.

Emerging drugs for treatment of focal segmental glomerulosclerosis

BACKGROUND

Glomerulosclerosis represents the final stage of glomerular injury during the course of kidney disease and can result from a primary disturbance in disorders like focal segmental glomerulosclerosis or a secondary response to tubulointerstitial disease. Overall, primary focal glomerulosclerosis (FSGS), the focus of this review, accounts for 10-20% of patients of all ages who progress to end stage kidney disease. There are no FDA approved therapeutic options that effectively prevent or delay the onset of kidney failure.

AREAS COVERED

Current immunosuppressive therapy and conservative management including inhibitors of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone axis and sodium-glucose cotransporter are reviewed. FSGS is now recognized to represent a heterogeneous entity with multiple underlying disease mechanisms. Therefore, novel approaches targeting the podocyte cytoskeleton, immunological, inflammatory, hemodynamic and metabolic pathways are highlighted.

EXPERT OPINION

A number of factors are driving the development of drugs to treat focal segmental glomerulosclerosis in particular and glomerulosclerosis in general including growing awareness of the burden of chronic kidney disease, improved scientific understanding of the mechanism of injury, and the development of noninvasive profiles to identify subgroups of patients with discrete mechanisms of glomerular injury.