Survival analysis in longitudinal studies for recurrent events: Applications and challenges

Recurrent Revascularization at 10 Years After Percutaneous Treatment of Drug-Eluting Stent Restenosis

BACKGROUND

Treatment of patients with recurrence of in-stent restenosis (ISR) remains particularly challenging, with data and guideline recommendations for repeat percutaneous coronary intervention being scant.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to investigate the long-term incidence of recurrent revascularization events after percutaneous treatment of drug-eluting stent (DES) ISR.

METHODS

In this post hoc analysis, 402 patients (500 lesions) assigned to plain balloon (PB), drug-coated balloon (DCB), or DES treatment in the randomized ISAR-DESIRE 3 (Efficacy Study of Paclitaxel-Eluting Balloon, -Stent vs. Plain Angioplasty for Drug-Eluting Stent Restenosis) trial were followed up over a median of 10.3 years. The primary endpoint was total repeat target lesion revascularization (R-TLR) including all, first and recurrent, events.

RESULTS

At the end of follow-up, first R-TLR was required in 204 lesions, 82 in the PB group, 70 in the DCB group, and 52 in the DES group. The total number of R-TLRs was 373: 162 in the PB group, 124 in the DCB group, and 87 in the DES group. During the first year of follow-up, the risk for total R-TLR was reduced by DCB (HR: 0.36; 95% CI: 0.24-0.54) and DES (HR: 0.23; 95% CI: 0.14-0.38) treatment compared with PB treatment. After 1 year, the risk for total R-TLR was nonsignificantly reduced by DCB treatment (HR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.51-1.16) and significantly reduced by DES treatment (HR: 0.61; 95% CI: 0.39-0.95) compared with PB treatment. Risk in the DCB and DES groups was similar during (HR: 1.54; 95% CI: 0.89-2.69) and after (HR: 1.26; 95% CI: 0.82-1.92) 1 year.

CONCLUSIONS

The total number of R-TLRs over 10 years after treatment of patients with DES ISR was high. DCBs and particularly DES were able to reduce the need for both first and recurrent revascularization compared with PB treatment.

Stereotactic radiosurgery for haemorrhagic cerebral cavernous malformation: a multi-institutional, retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Cerebral cavernous malformations (CCMs) frequently manifest with haemorrhages. Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) has been employed for CCM not suitable for resection. Its effect on reducing haemorrhage risk is still controversial. The aim of this study was to expand on the safety and efficacy of SRS for haemorrhagic CCM.

METHODS

This retrospective multicentric study included CCM with at least one haemorrhage treated with single-session SRS. The annual haemorrhagic rate (AHR) was calculated before and after SRS. Recurrent event analysis and Cox regression were used to evaluate factors associated with haemorrhage. Adverse radiation effects (AREs) and occurrence of new neurological deficits were recorded.

RESULTS

The study included 381 patients (median age: 37.5 years (Q1-Q3: 25.8-51.9) with 414 CCMs. The AHR from diagnosis to SRS excluding the first haemorrhage was 11.08 per 100 CCM-years and was reduced to 2.7 per 100 CCM-years after treatment. In recurrent event analysis, SRS, HR 0.27 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.44), p<0.0001 was associated with a decreased risk of haemorrhage, and the presence of developmental venous anomaly (DVA) with an increased risk, HR 1.60 (95% CI 1.07 to 2.40), p=0.022. The cumulative risk of first haemorrhage after SRS was 9.4% (95% CI 6% to 12.6%) at 5 years and 15.6% (95% CI% 9 to 21.8%) at 10 years. Margin doses> 13 Gy, HR 2.27 (95% CI 1.20 to 4.32), p=0.012 and the presence of DVA, HR 2.08 (95% CI 1.00 to 4.31), p=0.049 were factors associated with higher probability of post-SRS haemorrhage. Post-SRS haemorrhage was symptomatic in 22 out of 381 (5.8%) patients, presenting with transient (15/381) or permanent (7/381) neurological deficit. ARE occurred in 11.1% (46/414) CCM and was responsible for transient neurological deficit in 3.9% (15/381) of the patients and permanent deficit in 1.1% (4/381) of the patients. Margin doses >13 Gy and CCM volume >0.7 cc were associated with increased risk of ARE.

CONCLUSION

Single-session SRS for haemorrhagic CCM is associated with a decrease in haemorrhage rate. Margin doses ≤13 Gy seem advisable.

Barreto M. The impact of social drivers, conditional cash transfers and their mechanisms on the mental health of the young; an integrated retrospective and forecasting approach using the 100 million Brazilian Cohort: A study protocol

Background

Physical, emotional, and social changes, including exposure to poverty, abuse, or violence, increases youth vulnerability to mental illness. These factors interfere with development, limit opportunities, and hamper achievement of a fulfilling life as adults. Addressing these issues can lead to improved outcomes at the population level and better cost-effectiveness for health services. Cash transfer programs have been a promising way to address social drivers for poor mental health. However, it is still unclear which pathways and mechanisms explain the association between socioeconomic support and lower mental illness among youth. Therefore, we will evaluate the effect of social drivers on youth mental health-related hospitalizations and suicide, test mechanisms and pathways of a countrywide socioeconomic intervention, and examine the timing of the intervention during the life course.

Methods

We will combine individual-level data from youth national hospitalization, mental health disorders and attempted suicide, suicide registries and notifications of violence, with large-scale databases, including “The 100 Million Brazilian Cohort”, over an 18-year period (2001–2018). Several approaches will be used for the retrospective quasi-experimental impact evaluations, such as Regression Discontinuity Designs, Propensity Score Matching and difference-in-differences, combined with multivariable regressions for cohort analyses. We will run multivariate regressions based on hierarchical analysis approach to evaluate the association between important social drivers (mental health care, demographic and economic aspects) on mental health-related hospitalizations and suicide among youth. Furthermore, we will perform microsimulations to generate projections regarding how mental health-related hospitalizations and suicide trends will be in the future based on the current state, and how BFP implementation scenarios will affect these trends.

Discussion

The results of this project will be of vital importance to guide policies and programs to improve mental health and reduce mental health-related hospitalizations and suicide in youth. It will provide information to improve the effectiveness of these programs worldwide. If cash transfers can decrease mental health problems among youth and reduce suicide.

Exploring and modeling recurrent birth events in Ethiopia: EMDHS 2019

Background

Globally, the estimated recurrent childbirth of one forth of women happens every two years or fewer. Next to Nigeria, Ethiopia is the second populist country in Africa and the first populist country in sub-Saharan Africa which consists of over 114 million population. There are prevalent short successive birth intervals problems in underdeveloped nations such as Ethiopia that contributes to adverse effects on mother and child health. However, studies that explore recurrent birth events and associated factors are very limited. Thus, this study aimed to explore and model the recurrent birth event by considering its subsequent within a mother and identifying its important determinants. As a result, the research findings of this study will be one of the preliminary research papers on the recurrent birth events that take into account the subsequent event and enable to be input for the policymakers, health institutions, and future researchers.

Methods

A total of 4676 mothers with their 16833 corresponding children were involved in this study. The data was obtained from the 2019 Ethiopian Mini Demographic and Health Survey (EMDHS). In this study, extended cox regression models such as Andersen-Gill (AG), Prentice, Williams, and Peterson total time (PWP-TT) model, PWP-gap time (PWP-GT) model, and Frailty model were employed. These all models are used to consider recurrent events within mothers and determine the potential determinants. AG, PWP-TT, and PWP-GT estimate the effect of covariates by considering the correlation between event times for a person can be explained by past events given the covariates, k^th event since the entry time, k^th event since the time from the previous event, respectively.

Results

Among mothers who have first and ninth recurrent birth events, 75.5% and 80.1% of them respectively were rural residents while 57.6% and 70.6% of them respectively were a place of delivery in the health sector. The highest prevalence of first recurrent births (44.3%) was obtained from Muslim mothers. Mothers' education level (HR: 1.210; 95%CI: 1.010, 1.460), mothers' age at first birth (HR: 0.713; 95% CI: 0.614, 0.828), household wealth index (HR: 0.776; 95% CI: 0.625, 0.965), child mortality (HR: 0.673; 95%CI: 0.514, 0.881), household size (HR: 1.914; 95%CI:1.539,2.381) and sex of child (HR:0.836; 95%CI = 0.755,0.926) were important determinants of recurrent birth event. This indicates mothers’ education level and household size were positively associated with recurrent birth events. Whereas mothers’ age at first birth, household wealth index, child mortality, and sex of the child was negatively associated with recurrent birth events.

Conclusion

The WHO recommends a minimum of 33 months between two consecutive births, which is longer than the Ethiopian recurrent birth intervals observed in this study. The highest recurrent birth occurred during the age of fewer than twenty years old of mothers at first birth as compared to mothers whose age was older at first birth. Mothers, children, and household characteristics had significant effects on recurrent birth events. We authors would like to recommend communities, governmental and non-governmental stakeholders consider the associated factors of frequent recurrence of birth noticed in this study. Besides, we would also like to recommend women start birth while they got mature in age to reduce frequent recurrent birth and its corresponding adverse effects.

HIV infection increases the risk of acquiring Plasmodium vivax malaria: a 4-year cohort study in the Brazilian Amazon HIV and risk of vivax malaria

Globally, malaria and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are both independently associated with a massive burden of disease and death. While their co-infection has been well studied for Plasmodium falciparum, scarce data exist regarding the association of P. vivax and HIV. In this cohort study, we assessed the effect of HIV on the risk of vivax malaria infection and recurrence during a 4-year follow-up period in an endemic area of the Brazilian Amazon. For the purpose of this study, we obtained clinical information from January 2012 to December 2016 from two databases. HIV screening data were acquired from the clinical information system at the tropical hospital Fundação de Medicina Tropical Dr. Heitor Vieira Dourado (FMT-HVD). The National Malaria Surveillance database (SIVEP malaria) was utilized to identify malaria infections during a 4-year follow-up period after diagnosis of HIV. Both datasets were combined via data linkage. Between 2012 and 2016, a total of 42,121 people were screened for HIV, with 1569 testing positive (3.7%). Out of all the patients diagnosed with HIV, 198 had at least one episode of P. vivax malaria in the follow-up. In the HIV-negative group, 711 participants had at least one P. vivax malaria episode. When comparing both groups, HIV patients had a 6.48 [(5.37–7.83); P < 0.0001] (adjusted relative risk) greater chance of acquiring P. vivax malaria. Moreover, being of the male gender [ARR = 1.41 (1.17–1.71); P < 0.0001], Amerindian ethnicity [ARR = 2.77 (1.46–5.28); P < 0.0001], and a resident in a municipality of the Metropolitan region of Manaus [ARR = 1.48 (1.02–2.15); P = 0.038] were independent risk factors associated with an increased risk of clinical malaria. Education ≥ 8 years [ARR = 0.41 (0.26–0.64); P < 0.0001] and living in the urban area [ARR = 0.44 (0.24–0.80); P = 0.007] were associated to a lower risk of P. vivax malaria. A total of 28 (14.1%) and 180 (25.3%) recurrences (at least a second clinical malaria episode) were reported in the HIV-positive and HIV-negative groups, respectively. After adjusting for sex and education, HIV-positive status was associated with a tendency towards protection from P. vivax malaria recurrences [ARR = 0.55 (0.27–1.10); P = 0.090]. HIV status was not associated with hospitalizations due to P. vivax malaria. CD4 + counts and viral load were not associated with recurrences of P. vivax malaria. No significant differences were found in the distribution of parasitemia between HIV-negative and HIV-positive P. vivax malaria patients. Our results suggest that HIV-positive status is a risk factor for vivax malaria infection, which represents an additional challenge that should be addressed during elimination efforts.

The use of predictive fall models for older adults receiving aged care, using routinely collected electronic health record data: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Falls in older adults remain a pressing health concern. With advancements in data analytics and increasing uptake of electronic health records, developing comprehensive predictive models for fall risk is now possible. We aimed to systematically identify studies involving the development and implementation of predictive falls models which used routinely collected electronic health record data in home-based, community and residential aged care settings.

METHODS

A systematic search of entries in Cochrane Library, CINAHL, MEDLINE, Scopus, and Web of Science was conducted in July 2020 using search terms relevant to aged care, prediction, and falls. Selection criteria included English-language studies, published in peer-reviewed journals, had an outcome of falls, and involved fall risk modelling using routinely collected electronic health record data. Screening, data extraction and quality appraisal using the Critical Appraisal Skills Program for Clinical Prediction Rule Studies were conducted. Study content was synthesised and reported narratively.

RESULTS

From 7,329 unique entries, four relevant studies were identified. All predictive models were built using different statistical techniques. Predictors across seven categories were used: demographics, assessments of care, fall history, medication use, health conditions, physical abilities, and environmental factors. Only one of the four studies had been validated externally. Three studies reported on the performance of the models.

CONCLUSIONS

Adopting predictive modelling in aged care services for adverse events, such as falls, is in its infancy. The increased availability of electronic health record data and the potential of predictive modelling to document fall risk and inform appropriate interventions is making use of such models achievable. Having a dynamic prediction model that reflects the changing status of an aged care client is key to this moving forward for fall prevention interventions.

Disparities in diabetes-related avoidable hospitalization among diabetes patients with disability using a nationwide cohort study

Diabetes is an ambulatory care sensitive condition that quality of care can prevent complications development and hospitalization needs. However, diabetes patients with disability face greater challenges with receiving quality diabetes care than those without disabilities. This study examined diabetes-related avoidable hospitalizations (DRAH) focusing on the association with disability. We used nationally representative health insurance cohort data from 2002 to 2013. The study population is people who were newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. We measured the cumulated number of DRAH using the Prevention Quality Indicators (PQIs). The variables of interest were disability severity and type. We performed a recurrent events analysis using Cox proportional hazard regression model. Among 49,410 type 2 diabetes patients, 12,231 (24.8%) experienced DRAHs at least once during the follow-up period. Among the total population, 5924 (12.0%) diabetes patients were registered as disabled. The findings report that disability severity was significantly associated with higher risks for DRAH, where severely disabled diabetes patients showed the highest hazard ratio of 2.24 (95% CI 1.80-2.79). Among three DRAH indicators, severely disabled diabetes patients showed increased risks for long-term (AHR 2.21, 95% CI 1.89-2.60) and uncontrolled (AHR 2.28, 95% CI 1.80-2.88) DRAH. In addition, intellectual (AHR 5.52, 95% CI 3.78-8.05) and mental (AHR 3.97, 95% CI 2.29-6.89) disability showed higher risks than other types of disability. In conclusion, diabetes patients with disability are at higher risk for DRAH compared to those without disabilities, and those with intellectual and mental disabilities were more likely to experience DRAH compared to those with physical or other types of disability. These findings call for action to find the more appropriate interventions to improve targeted diabetes primary care for patients with disability. Further research is needed to better understand determinants of increasing risks of DRAH.

Attainment of Low Disease Activity and Remission Targets reduces the risk of severe flare and new damage in Childhood Lupus

Objectives

To assess the achievability and effect of attaining low disease activity (LDA) or remission in childhood-onset SLE (cSLE).

Methods

Attainment of three adult-SLE derived definitions of LDA (LLDAS, LA, Toronto-LDA), and four definitions of remission (clinical-SLEDAI-defined remission on/off treatment, pBILAG-defined remission on/off treatment) was assessed in UK JSLE Cohort Study patients longitudinally. Prentice–Williams–Petersen gap recurrent event models assessed the impact of LDA/remission attainment on severe flare/new damage.

Results

LLDAS, LA and Toronto-LDA targets were reached in 67%, 73% and 32% of patients, after a median of 18, 15 or 17 months, respectively. Cumulatively, LLDAS, LA and Toronto-LDA was attained for a median of 23%, 31% and 19% of total follow-up-time, respectively. Remission on-treatment was more common (61% cSLEDAI-defined, 42% pBILAG-defined) than remission off-treatment (31% cSLEDAI-defined, 21% pBILAG-defined). Attainment of all target states, and disease duration (>1 year), significantly reduced the hazard of severe flare (P < 0.001). As cumulative time in each target increased, hazard of severe flare progressively reduced. LLDAS attainment reduced the hazard of severe flare more than LA or Toronto-LDA (P < 0.001). Attainment of LLDAS and all remission definitions led to a statistically comparable reduction in the hazards of severe flare (P > 0.05). Attainment of all targets reduced the hazards of new damage (P < 0.05).

Conclusions

This is the first study demonstrating that adult-SLE-derived definitions of LDA/remission are achievable in cSLE, significantly reducing risk of severe flare/new damage. Of the LDA definitions, LLDAS performed best, leading to a statistically comparable reduction in the hazards of severe flare to attainment of clinical remission.