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Sasaki Y, Abe T, Kawamura N, Keitoku T, Shibata I, Ohno S, Ono K, Makishima M. Prediction of the need for emergency endoscopic treatment for upper gastrointestinal bleeding and new score model: a retrospective study. BMC Gastroenterol 2022; 22:337. [PMID: 35820868 PMCID: PMC9277905 DOI: 10.1186/s12876-022-02413-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2022] [Accepted: 07/05/2022] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Gastrointestinal bleeding is one of the major gastrointestinal diseases. In this study, our objective was to compare Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), AIMS65 score, MAP score, Modified GBS, and Iino score as outcome measures for upper gastrointestinal bleeding. In addition, we extracted factors associated with hemostatic procedures including endoscopy, and proposed a new robust score model. Methods From January 2015 to December 2019, 675 patients with symptoms such as hematemesis who visited the National Hospital Organization Disaster Medical Center and underwent urgent upper endoscopy with diagnosis of suspected non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding were retrospectively reviewed. We evaluated the GBS, AIMS65 score, MAP score, Modified GBS, and Iino score, and assessed the outcomes of patients requiring hemostatic treatments at the subsequent emergency endoscopy. We performed logistic regression analysis of factors related to endoscopic hemostasis and upper gastrointestinal bleeding, created a new score model, and evaluated the prediction of hemostatic treatment and mortality in the new score and the existing scores. Results The factors associated with endoscopic treatment were hematemesis, heart rate, HB (hemoglobin), blood pressure, blood urea nitrogen (BUN). Based on these predictors and the partial regression coefficients, a new score named H3B2 (using the initial letters of hematemesis, heart rate, HB, blood pressure, and BUN) was generated. H3B2 score was slightly more discriminatory compared to GBS and Modified GBS (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC): 0.73 versus 0.721 and 0.7128, respectively) in predicting hemostatic treatment in emergency endoscopy. The H3B2 score also showed satisfactory prediction accuracy for subsequent deaths (AUROC: 0.6857. P < 0.001). Conclusions We proposed a new score, the H3B2 score, consisting of simple and objective indices in cases of suspected upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The H3B2 score is useful in identifying high-risk patients with suspected upper gastrointestinal bleeding who require urgent hemostatic treatment including emergency endoscopy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yoshihiro Sasaki
- Department of Gastroenterology, National Disaster Medical Center, 3256 Midoricho, Tachikawa-shi, Tokyo, 190-0014, Japan. .,Division of Biochemistry, Department of Biomedical Sciences, Nihon University School of Medicine, 30-1 Oyaguchi-kamicho, Itabashi-ku, Tokyo, 173-8610, Japan.
| | - Tomoko Abe
- Department of Gastroenterology, National Disaster Medical Center, 3256 Midoricho, Tachikawa-shi, Tokyo, 190-0014, Japan
| | - Norio Kawamura
- Department of Gastroenterology, National Disaster Medical Center, 3256 Midoricho, Tachikawa-shi, Tokyo, 190-0014, Japan
| | - Taisei Keitoku
- Department of Gastroenterology, National Disaster Medical Center, 3256 Midoricho, Tachikawa-shi, Tokyo, 190-0014, Japan
| | - Isamu Shibata
- Department of Gastroenterology, National Disaster Medical Center, 3256 Midoricho, Tachikawa-shi, Tokyo, 190-0014, Japan
| | - Shino Ohno
- Department of Gastroenterology, National Disaster Medical Center, 3256 Midoricho, Tachikawa-shi, Tokyo, 190-0014, Japan
| | - Keiichi Ono
- Department of Gastroenterology, National Disaster Medical Center, 3256 Midoricho, Tachikawa-shi, Tokyo, 190-0014, Japan
| | - Makoto Makishima
- Division of Biochemistry, Department of Biomedical Sciences, Nihon University School of Medicine, 30-1 Oyaguchi-kamicho, Itabashi-ku, Tokyo, 173-8610, Japan
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