Assessment of impact of relaxation in lockdown and forecast of preparation for combating COVID-19 pandemic in India using Group Method of Data Handling

Analysis of learning curves in predictive modeling using exponential curve fitting with an asymptotic approach

The existence of large volumes of data has considerably alleviated concerns regarding the availability of sufficient data instances for machine learning experiments. Nevertheless, in certain contexts, addressing limited data availability may demand distinct strategies and efforts. Analyzing COVID-19 predictions at pandemic beginning emerged a question: how much data is needed to make reliable predictions? When does the volume of data provide a better understanding of the disease's evolution and, in turn, offer reliable forecasts? Given these questions, the objective of this study is to analyze learning curves obtained from predicting the incidence of COVID-19 in Brazilian States using ARIMA models with limited available data. To fulfill the objective, a retrospective exploration of COVID-19 incidence across the Brazilian States was performed. After the data acquisition and modeling, the model errors were assessed by employing a learning curve analysis. The asymptotic exponential curve fitting enabled the evaluation of the errors in different points, reflecting the increased available data over time. For a comprehensive understanding of the results at distinct stages of the time evolution, the average derivative of the curves and the equilibrium points were calculated, aimed to identify the convergence of the ARIMA models to a stable pattern. We observed differences in average derivatives and equilibrium values among the multiple samples. While both metrics ultimately confirmed the convergence to stability, the equilibrium points were more sensitive to changes in the models' accuracy and provided a better indication of the learning progress. The proposed method for constructing learning curves enabled consistent monitoring of prediction results, providing evidence-based understandings required for informed decision-making.

Recurrent neural network based sentiment analysis of social media data during corona pandemic under national lockdown

The Corona virus pandemic has affected the normal course of life. People all over the world take the social media to express their opinions and general emotions regarding this phenomenon. In a relatively short period of time, tweets about the new Corona virus increased by an amount never before seen on the social networking site Twitter. In this research work, Sentiment Analysis of Social Media Data to Identify the Feelings of Indians during Corona Pandemic under National Lockdown using recurrent neural network is proposed. The proposed method is analyzed using four steps: that is Data collection, data preparation, Building sentiment analysis model and Visualization of the results. For Data collection, the twitter dataset are collected from social networking platform twitter by application programming interface. For Data preparation, the input data set are pre-processed for removing URL links, removing unnecessary spaces, removing punctuations and numbers. After data cleaning or preprocessing entire particular characters and non-US characters from Standard Code for Information Interchange, apart from hash tag, are extracted as refined tweet text. In addition, entire behaviors less than three alphabets are not assumed at analysis of tweets, lastly, tokenization and derivation was carried out by Porter Stemmer to perform opinion mining. To authenticate the method, categorized the tweets linked to COVID-19 national lockdown. For categorization, recurrent neural method is used. RNN classify the sentiment classification as positive, negative and neutral sentiment scores. The efficiency of the proposed RNN based Sentimental analysis classification of COVID-19 is assessed various performances by evaluation metrics, like sensitivity, precision, recall, f-measure, specificity and accuracy. The proposed method attains 24.51%, 25.35%, 31.45% and 24.53% high accuracy, 43.51%, 52.35%, 21.45% and 28.53% high sensitivity than the existing methods.

A classification of countries and regions by degree of the spread of coronavirus based on statistical criteria

This paper presents models of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in individual countries and globally in 2020 based on the statistical characteristics of the spread in the given countries or regions (in particular, in Hubei province). Through modeling, we attempt to achieve a goal which is of vital interest to societies in a pandemic catastrophe, and to answer the question of what stage of spread the epidemic has reached in a given country. The country classifier we developed is based on the relative variability indicator of the confirmed cases variable. This classification indicator is compared with a set of data-driven thresholds, the crossing of which determines the degree of spread of the epidemic in a given country. The article was written between April 2020, when the pandemic had been suppressed in China and was raging in Europe and the USA, and August 2020, as a new wave of local resumed outbreaks appeared in many countries. We contend that the spread phases are predictable based on statistical similarity. There are four phases of epidemic spread: growth, duration, suppression and re-outbreak. The authors' Matlab software, which allows simulations of the spread of coronavirus in any country based on data published by CSSE, is available in the public GitHub repository.

Sen's Innovative Method for Trend Analysis of Epidemic: A Case Study of Covid-19 Pandemic in India

Analysis of trend of epidemiological data helps to appreciate the progression of an epidemic and to develop monitoring and control strategies by the government agencies. Sen's Innovative Method suggests a graphical analysis, which can overcome many limitations of data such as short length, non-Gaussian nature, skewness or serial correlation. In this article, this method is applied for the first time on epidemiological data. For the case study, Covid-19 or SARS-CoV-2 data from India were employed. The results show that Sen's Innovative Method is capable of indicating the shift in epidemiological trend quite efficiently, before it is reflected in the time series or moving average plots. The graphical analysis worked particularly well in comparing the trends of monthly data. It is concluded that this method would be especially suitable for monitoring the epidemiological trend by breaking up the data into smaller segments, as was illustrated in the study.