Time to Understand the Infrequency of the Frequent Exacerbator Phenotype in COPD

Tracking COPD exacerbation patterns and forecasting readmission risks utilizing electronic medical records

INTRODUCTION

Accurate evaluation of exacerbation frequency is an essential part of COPD assessment. But relying on just the prior-year exacerbation history may not capture the full picture of risk given the inherent year-to-year fluctuations in exacerbation rates. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of models incorporating the 3-year exacerbation history based on electronic medical record.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 86,501 COPD hospitalized patients in Beijing from 2008 to 2014. The annual frequency of COPD exacerbation hospitalizations over a 3-year period after the index hospitalization was calculated, with patients segmented into seven distinct exacerbation trajectory groups. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the predictive capability of the 3-year exacerbation history for exacerbation readmission in the fourth year. Predictors included age, sex, comorbidities, and exacerbation hospitalization in previous 1-3 years. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Of the studied patients, 56.5% were men, and the mean age (SD) was 73.8 (10.3) years. The overall readmission rate for COPD exacerbation was 0.31 per person-year, with only 3.8% of patients persistently readmitted over three consecutive years. The 3-year trajectory of exacerbation frequency was associated with exacerbation risk in the fourth year. Compared to just the prior year, the inclusion of a 3-year exacerbation hospitalization history notably improved prediction accuracy, with AUC elevating from 0.731 (0.724-0.739) to 0.786 (0.779-0.792).

CONCLUSION

These results unveil the fluctuating nature of COPD exacerbation hospitalization frequency across years and demonstrate that integrating a more comprehensive 3-year exacerbation history significantly refines the prediction model for future risk, thus providing a more nuanced and actionable insight for clinical care.

Prognostic risk factors for moderate-to-severe exacerbations in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic literature review

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. COPD exacerbations are associated with a worsening of lung function, increased disease burden, and mortality, and, therefore, preventing their occurrence is an important goal of COPD management. This review was conducted to identify the evidence base regarding risk factors and predictors of moderate-to-severe exacerbations in patients with COPD.

Methods

A literature review was performed in Embase, MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL). Searches were conducted from January 2015 to July 2019. Eligible publications were peer-reviewed journal articles, published in English, that reported risk factors or predictors for the occurrence of moderate-to-severe exacerbations in adults age ≥ 40 years with a diagnosis of COPD.

Results

The literature review identified 5112 references, of which 113 publications (reporting results for 76 studies) met the eligibility criteria and were included in the review. Among the 76 studies included, 61 were observational and 15 were randomized controlled clinical trials. Exacerbation history was the strongest predictor of future exacerbations, with 34 studies reporting a significant association between history of exacerbations and risk of future moderate or severe exacerbations. Other significant risk factors identified in multiple studies included disease severity or bronchodilator reversibility (39 studies), comorbidities (34 studies), higher symptom burden (17 studies), and higher blood eosinophil count (16 studies).

Conclusions

This systematic literature review identified several demographic and clinical characteristics that predict the future risk of COPD exacerbations. Prior exacerbation history was confirmed as the most important predictor of future exacerbations. These prognostic factors may help clinicians identify patients at high risk of exacerbations, which are a major driver of the global burden of COPD, including morbidity and mortality.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12931-022-02123-5.

Development and multimodal characterization of an elastase-induced emphysema mouse disease model for the COPD frequent bacterial exacerbator phenotype

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients undergo infectious exacerbations whose frequency identifies a clinically meaningful phenotype. Mouse models have been mostly used to separately study both COPD and the infectious processes, but a reliable model of the COPD frequent exacerbator phenotype is still lacking. Accordingly, we first established a model of single bacterial exacerbation by nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) infection on mice with emphysema-like lesions. We characterized this single exacerbation model combining both noninvasive in vivo imaging and ex vivo techniques, obtaining longitudinal information about bacterial load and the extent of the developing lesions and host responses. Bacterial load disappeared 48 hours post-infection (hpi). However, lung recovery, measured using tests of pulmonary function and the disappearance of lung inflammation as revealed by micro-computed X-ray tomography, was delayed until 3 weeks post-infection (wpi). Then, to emulate the frequent exacerbator phenotype, we performed two recurrent episodes of NTHi infection on the emphysematous murine lung. Consistent with the amplified infectious insult, bacterial load reduction was now observed 96 hpi, and lung function recovery and disappearance of lesions on anatomical lung images did not happen until 12 wpi. Finally, as a proof of principle of the use of the model, we showed that azithromycin successfully cleared the recurrent infection, confirming this macrolide utility to ameliorate infectious exacerbation. In conclusion, we present a mouse model of recurrent bacterial infection of the emphysematous lung, aimed to facilitate investigating the COPD frequent exacerbator phenotype by providing complementary, dynamic information of both infectious and inflammatory processes.

Increased mortality associated with frequent exacerbations in COPD patients with mild-to-moderate lung function impairment, and smokers with normal spirometry

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