Fear and trust: How risk perceptions of avian influenza affect Chinese consumers' demand for chicken

Spillover effects of food recalls: A milk recall scenario experiment in China

Food recall is a major ingredient in food safety with existing literature focusing mainly on its direct impacts. Few studies focus on possible spillover effects. It is hypothesized that food recalls have a spillover effect on the recalled brand and purchase channel. As a test of this hypothesis, a 2-purchase channel by 3-recall strategy scenario experiment was conducted on spillover effects of a milk recall in Beijing, China. The results indicate that food-safety scares have significant negative impacts on consumers' purchase intention on the recalled brand and purchase channel, and the impacts are more significant for online than offline marketing. However, voluntary recalls by online firms help mitigate these negative effects and restore consumers' purchase intention more than offline voluntary recalls. An online food incident creates an issue of trust toward general online platforms. Online vendors should take greater care in guaranteeing food safety and actively take restorative actions such as voluntary recalls after a food safety incident. Results provide empirical evidence for industry organizations and governments to stipulate a strict food safety and incident resolution system for e-commerce.

What Motivates Consumer Food Safety Perceptions and Beliefs? A Scoping Review in BRICS Countries

This scoping review aimed to map the main evidence in the existing literature regarding consumer perceptions and beliefs regarding food safety in the context of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries. Articles were searched in the Web of Science, Scopus, and SciELO databases. The last search was performed on November 2021. Only the studies conducted within BRICS countries were included. The synthesis aimed to group similarities in consumer beliefs and perceptions of food safety. After screening, 74 eligible articles were included in the study. Of the 74 studies analyzed, 49 (66.2%) were carried out in China, 14 (18.9%) in Brazil, 5 (6.8%) in India,4 (5.4%) in South Africa, and 2 (2.7%) in Russia. Thirty-three motivators of perceptions and beliefs regarding food safety were identified. Food safety motivators were grouped into three categories: (1) sociodemographic characteristics, (2) cognitive aspects, and (3) other. In the "sociodemographic characteristics" category, the motivator with the highest number of corresponding results was education level (results = 22), followed by income (results = 22), both positive drivers for food safety perceptions. The "cognitive aspects" category comprised the majority of the identified motivators. Concern for food safety (results = 32) and risk perception (results = 30) were the motivators with the highest number of results among all categories and motivators. Finally, the main motivator in the "other" category was place of consumption/purchase (results = 8), focusing on consumers underestimating the risk of having a foodborne disease when eating away from home. China and Brazil are leading the way in studies on this topic. Consumers' perceptions are influenced by socioeconomic characteristics (e.g., age, gender, education level, income), cognitive aspects (e.g., knowledge, risk perception, food concerns, previous experience with food safety incidents) and other situational factors (e.g., price, place of purchase, traceability).

How will the COVID-19 pandemic shape the future of meat consumption?

Since its recent onset, the COVID-19 pandemic has altered the daily lives of millions around the world. One area particularly affected is our diets, with food supply chain disruptions, media coverage of food safety issues and restaurant closures all influencing consumer dietary behaviour. Given this situation, we pose a timely question - what is the impact of the current pandemic on longer-term meat consumption patterns? This issue is pertinent given accumulating evidence that overconsumption of meat, particularly red meat, is associated with negative environmental and health outcomes. Here, we discuss how the current pandemic has already begun to shift public awareness of illnesses linked to animals and has resulted in short-term changes in patterns of meat consumption. Past zoonotic outbreaks, such as SARS and swine flu, are also referred to, and we find that these led to similar short-term reductions in meat intake, a shift in the type of meat chosen and longer-lasting impacts on consumer perceptions of the health risks associated with meat. We conclude that, if immediate changes in eating patterns as a result of COVID-19 are retained in the longer term, one possible opportunity to emerge from the current pandemic may be a shift away from overconsumption of meat, leading to potential health and environmental benefits in the longer term.

Modelling the global economic consequences of a major African swine fever outbreak in China

African swine fever is a deadly porcine disease that has spread into East Asia where it is having a detrimental effect on pork production. However, the implications of African swine fever on the global pork market are poorly explored. Two linked global economic models are used to explore the consequences of different scales of the epidemic on pork prices and on the prices of other food types and animal feeds. The models project global pork prices increasing by 17-85% and unmet demand driving price increases of other meats. This price rise reduces the quantity of pork demanded but also spurs production in other parts of the world, and imports make up half the Chinese losses. Demand for, and prices of, food types such as beef and poultry rise, while prices for maize and soybean used in feed decline. There is a slight decline in average per capita calorie availability in China, indicating the importance of assuring the dietary needs of low-income populations. Outside China, projections for calorie availability are mixed, reflecting the direct and indirect effects of the African swine fever epidemic on food and feed markets.

Food Safety Incident, Public Health Concern, and Risk Spillover Heterogeneity: Avian Influenza Shocks as Natural Experiments in China's Consumer Markets

Background: Food safety incidents have aroused widespread public health concern, causing food price risk. However, the causal paths remain largely unexplored in previous literature. This paper sets out to identify the relations of local and spatial spillovers of food safety incidents and public health concerns to food price risk in consumer markets within a setting with heterogeneous food safety risk levels. Methods: (i) Theoretically, unlike prior work, this paper decomposes food safety risks into food safety incidents (objective incident component) and public health concern (subjective concern component). This article develops a theoretical framework of causality to capture the underlying causal pathways motivated by the theories of limited attention and two-step flow of communication. (ii) Empirically, using avian influenza shocks in China's poultry markets as natural experiments, this paper differentiates between low- and high-risk food and incidents. The article adopts dynamic spatial panel models to analyze potential nonlinearity, moderation, and mediation in the spillover of food safety risk to food price risk for a long panel of 30 provinces covering the November 2007 to November 2017 period. Results: (i) Food safety incident alone only triggers high-risk food price risk, not low-risk food price risk. (ii) Public health concern amplifies nonlinear food price risk triggered by food safety incident. (iii) High-risk incident intensifies negative pressure of public health concern on food price risk. (iv) Food safety incident indirectly affects high-risk food price risk through public health concern. Conclusions: Using a setting with heterogeneous risk levels, this paper documents that (i) food safety incident itself does not necessarily determine food price risk, whereas it is actually public health concern that directly causes nonlinear food price risk; (ii) public health concern spillover to food price risk is negatively moderated by high-risk incident, and (iii) food safety incident spillover to high-risk food price risk is mediated by public health concern. The findings complement current research by (i) elucidating the diverse impacts of food safety incident and public health concern on food price risk, which are obscure in previous literature, and (ii) highlighting that heterogeneous food and incident risk levels matter for determining food price risk spillover.

Avian Influenza, Public Opinion and Risk Spillover: Measurement, Theory and Evidence from China’s Broiler Market

Animal disease is a major threat to the sustainability of the global livestock market. We explore the price risk spillover of avian influenza to the broiler market, from the perspective of public opinion. Unlike in previous work, where avian influenza is measured as a whole, we decompose an avian influenza epidemic into avian influenza outbreak and public opinion, measured by infection cases and Baidu and Google search volume. Theoretically, by introducing the theory of limited attention and two-step flow of communication, we develop an analytical framework to capture the causal mechanism of avian influenza outbreak, public opinion and broiler price risk spillover, arguing that it is actually public opinion, not avian influenza outbreak alone, that directly causes broiler price risk. Empirically, using a long panel from China spanning from November 2004-November 2017, we examine the causal mechanism and analyse the nonlinear spatial spillover of public opinion to broiler price risk. We find that: (i) neither poultry nor human infection with avian influenza outbreak has a significant spillover to broiler price; (ii) on average, public opinion has a negative spillover to broiler price; in general, spillover of public opinion to broiler price is inverse U-shaped; (iii) on average, public opinion has a negative direct effect on local broiler price and a three times larger negative spatial spillover effect on nearby broiler price; in general, direct and spatial spillover effects are inverse U-shaped. Our research highlights the importance of studying public opinion in amplifying price risk when analysing spillover of animal disease to the global livestock market.