1
|
Shen J. Modelling the roles of visitor flows and returning migrants in the spatial diffusion of COVID-19 from Wuhan city in China. APPLIED GEOGRAPHY (SEVENOAKS, ENGLAND) 2023; 155:102971. [PMID: 37123661 PMCID: PMC10121107 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2023.102971] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/14/2022] [Revised: 04/03/2023] [Accepted: 04/15/2023] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
COVID-19 has spread to many cities and countries in the world since the major outbreak in Wuhan city in later 2019. Population flow is the main channel of COVID-19 transmission between different cities and countries. This study recognizes that the flows of different population groups such as visitors and migrants returning to hometown are different in nature due to different length of stay and exposure to infection risks, contributing to the spatial diffusion of COVID-19 differently. To model population flows and the spatial diffusion of COVID-19 more accurately, a population group based SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) metapopulation model is developed consisting of 32 regions including Wuhan, the rest of Hubei and other 30 provinces in Mainland China. The paper found that, in terms of the total export, Wuhan residents as visitors and Wuhan migrants returned to hometown were the first and second largest contributors in the simulation period. In terms of the net export, Wuhan migrants returned to hometown were the largest contributor, followed by Wuhan residents as visitors.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jianfa Shen
- Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, NT, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Seker S, Bağlan FB, Aydin N, Deveci M, Ding W. Risk assessment approach for analyzing risk factors to overcome pandemic using interval-valued q-rung orthopair fuzzy decision making method. Appl Soft Comput 2023; 132:109891. [PMID: 36471784 PMCID: PMC9714129 DOI: 10.1016/j.asoc.2022.109891] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2022] [Revised: 10/29/2022] [Accepted: 11/25/2022] [Indexed: 12/03/2022]
Abstract
The process of developing and implementing sustainable strategies to prevent spread of COVID-19 for society typically requires integrating all social, technological, economic, governmental aspects in a systematic way. Since the clear understanding of risk factors contribute to the success of the strategies applied against COVID-19, a risk assessment procedure is applied in this study to properly evaluate risk factors cause to spread of pandemic as a multi-complex decision problem. Therefore, due to the evaluation of risk factors, which often involves uncertain information, the model is constructed based on interval-valued q-rung orthopair fuzzy-COmplex PRoportional ASsessment (IVq-ROF-COPRAS) method. While the developed framework is efficient to enhance the quality of decisions by implementing more realistic, precise, and effective application procedure under uncertain environment, it has capability to help governments for developing comprehensive strategies and responses. According to the results of the proposed risk analysis model, the top three risk factors are "The Approach that Prioritizes the Economy in Policies", "Insufficient Process Control in Normalization" and "Lack of Epidemic Management Culture in Individuals and Businesses". Lastly, to show applicability and efficiency of the model sensitivity and comparative analysis were conducted at the end of the study.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sukran Seker
- Department of Industrial Engineering, Yildiz Technical University, Besiktas, 34349, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Fatma Betül Bağlan
- Department of Industrial Engineering, Istanbul Esenyurt University, Esenyurt, 34510, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Nezir Aydin
- Department of Industrial Engineering, Yildiz Technical University, Besiktas, 34349, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Muhammet Deveci
- Department of Industrial Engineering, Turkish Naval Academy, National Defence University, 34940 Tuzla, Istanbul, Turkey
- The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK
| | - Weiping Ding
- School of Information Science and Technology, Nantong University, Nantong 226019, China
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Siewwuttanagul S, Jittrapirom P. The impact of COVID-19 and related containment measures on Bangkok's public transport ridership. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH INTERDISCIPLINARY PERSPECTIVES 2023; 17:100737. [PMID: 36504757 PMCID: PMC9721279 DOI: 10.1016/j.trip.2022.100737] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2022] [Revised: 11/22/2022] [Accepted: 11/28/2022] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic and related measures used to contain its spread affected public transport ridership in cities around the world. In Thailand, the government issued 41 Royal Decrees between April 2020 and December 2021 to mitigate the spread of the pandemic. In this study, we investigate how Bangkok's public transport services (bus, metro, and boat) have been affected during this period by analyzing the daily ridership data, confirmed COVID-19 cases, and aggregated travel trends by trip destinations using from Google mobility reports. The results show that public transport ridership decreased as daily COVID cases increased and the levels of restraining measures became higher. However, other factors, such as relative strictness compared to earlier measures and sequencing of the measures seems to have had an impact on the ridership. Moreover, the impact on ridership trends is unique for each of the three modes. Bus and metro ridership appear to be more sensitive to the changes in restrictions than the boats. Bus and metro ridership also shows similar changes in the travel trends concerning the place of visit. The findings reported here provide first insights into how Bangkok's public transport systems were affected and suggest the rationale of why different public transport modes were affected differently. These results can be useful for researchers and for decision-makers who plan and design policies and measures for public transport services.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Somsiri Siewwuttanagul
- The Cluster of Logistics and Rail Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Mahidol University, Thailand
| | - Peraphan Jittrapirom
- Research Methodology Group, Business Administration Nijmegen School of Management, Radboud University, the Netherlands
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Yan L, Talic S, Wild H, Gasevic D, Gasević D, Ilic D, Deppeler J, Corrigan D, Martinez-Maldonado R, Trauer J. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a primary school setting with and without public health measures using real-world contact data: A modelling study. J Glob Health 2022; 12:05034. [PMID: 36181503 PMCID: PMC9526455 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.12.05034] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Stringent public health measures have been shown to influence the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within school environments. We investigated the potential transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a primary school setting with and without public health measures, using fine-grained physical positioning traces captured before the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods Approximately 172.63 million position data from 98 students and six teachers from an open-plan primary school were used to predict a potential transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in primary school settings. We first estimated the daily average number of contacts of students and teachers with an infected individual during the incubation period. We then used the Reed-Frost model to estimate the probability of transmission per contact for the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha (B.1.1.7), Delta (B.1.617.2), and Omicron variant (B.1.1.529). Finally, we built a binomial distribution model to estimate the probability of onward transmission in schools with and without public health measures, including face masks and physical distancing. Results An infectious student would have 49.1 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 46.1-52.1) contacts with their peers and 2.00 (95% CI = 1.82-2.18) contacts with teachers per day. An infectious teacher would have 47.6 (95% CI = 45.1-50.0) contacts with students and 1.70 (95% CI = 1.48-1.92) contacts with their colleague teachers per day. While the probability of onward SARS-CoV-2 transmission was relatively low for the Alpha and Delta variants, the risk increased for the Omicron variant, especially in the absence of public health measures. Onward teacher-to-student transmission (88.9%, 95% CI = 88.6%-89.1%) and teacher-to-teacher SARS-CoV-2 transmission (98.4%, 95% CI = 98.5%-98.6%) were significantly higher for the Omicron variant without public health measures in place. Conclusions Our findings illustrate that, despite a lower frequency of close contacts, teacher-to-teacher close contacts demonstrated a higher risk of transmission per contact of SARS-CoV-2 compared to student-to-student close contacts. This was especially significant with the Omicron variant, with onward transmission more likely occurring from teacher index cases than student index cases. Public health measures (eg, face masks and physical distance) seem essential in reducing the risk of onward transmission within school environments.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lixiang Yan
- Faculty of Information Technology, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia.,Centre for Learning Analytics at Monash, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Stella Talic
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Holly Wild
- Public Health & Health Sciences, Torrens University Australia, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Danijela Gasevic
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University Clayton, Victoria, Australia.,Centre for Global Health, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Dragan Gasević
- Faculty of Information Technology, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia.,Centre for Learning Analytics at Monash, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Dragan Ilic
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Joanne Deppeler
- Faculty of Education, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Deborah Corrigan
- Faculty of Education, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Roberto Martinez-Maldonado
- Faculty of Information Technology, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia.,Centre for Learning Analytics at Monash, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - James Trauer
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Ng PML, Lit KK, Cheung CTY. Remote work as a new normal? The technology-organization-environment (TOE) context. TECHNOLOGY IN SOCIETY 2022; 70:102022. [PMID: 35719245 PMCID: PMC9187876 DOI: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2022.102022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2021] [Revised: 03/19/2022] [Accepted: 06/09/2022] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has established remote work as the new normal. However, the factors that influence the effectiveness of remote work are unexplored. Moreover, the relationships between remote work and job performance and emotional exhaustion are under-investigated. This study addresses these gaps by investigating the factors that influence the effectiveness and outcomes of remote work. The technology-organisation-environment (TOE) framework and the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) are used as a theoretical lens to examine the internal and external factors that affect remote work and work-life balance. An online cross-sectional survey of knowledge workers engaged in remote work in Hong Kong indicates that both external (technological competence, government support) and internal (work flexibility, attitude, perceived behavioural control) factors are significant predictors of successful remote work. Furthermore, remote work is positively associated with job performance but has no association with emotional exhaustion. These findings suggest that to ensure a successful transition to the new normal, governments and organisations should provide technical support to employees engaged in remote work. The theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Peggy M L Ng
- College of Professional and Continuing Education, CPCE, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong
| | | | - Cherry T Y Cheung
- School of Professional Education and Executive Development, SPEED, The Hong Kong Polytechnic Universtiy, Hong Kong
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Zhou L, Li S, Li C, Shen G, Yang H, Zhu P, Han H, Li B. Spatial congruency or mismatch? Analyzing the COVID-19 potential infection risk and urban density as businesses reopen. CITIES (LONDON, ENGLAND) 2022; 123:103615. [PMID: 35095162 PMCID: PMC8786608 DOI: 10.1016/j.cities.2022.103615] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2021] [Revised: 01/13/2022] [Accepted: 01/20/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Countries worldwide are reopening their businesses despite the continuing COVID-19 crisis and the emergence of new variants. In this context, knowing whether the reopening of businesses at various locations exposes higher risk to the public is essential. Whether urban density correlates with the potential infection risk as concluded by previous studies of the COVID-19 pandemic remains unknown. In this study, taking the Macau Peninsula as a testbed, we first identified business locations for daily activities according to the latest point of interest (POI) data and generated the potential risk surface for COVID-19 infection. Then, using the cellular phone network and urban footprint data, we further analyzed the spatial relationship between COVID-19 potential risk and urban density of population and morphology through visual analytics. Results show that while some degree of spatial congruency exists between medium-risk peaks and urban density hotspots, apparent spatial mismatch exists for high-risk peaks, indicating that the traditional planning control based on urban density is inadequate for mitigating public health risks. POI-based spatial layout and configuration better reflecting business services and associated human activities are recommended in future planning and policy-making for more resilient cities in the post-pandemic era.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Long Zhou
- Faculty of Innovation and Design, City University of Macau, Macao
| | - Sihong Li
- Faculty of Innovation and Design, City University of Macau, Macao
| | - Chaosu Li
- Urban Governance and Design Thrust, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, China
- Division of Public Policy, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong
| | - Guoqiang Shen
- College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, China
| | - Huajie Yang
- Faculty of Innovation and Design, City University of Macau, Macao
| | - Pengyu Zhu
- Division of Public Policy, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong
| | - Haoying Han
- College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, China
| | - Bin Li
- Faculty of Innovation and Design, City University of Macau, Macao
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Askarizad R, Jinliao H, Jafari S. The influence of COVID-19 on the societal mobility of urban spaces. CITIES (LONDON, ENGLAND) 2021; 119:103388. [PMID: 36540772 PMCID: PMC9756814 DOI: 10.1016/j.cities.2021.103388] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2021] [Revised: 06/28/2021] [Accepted: 07/22/2021] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
The previous literature in relation to the ongoing pandemic has revealed that COVID-19 may have a negative impact on social mobility and interactions within public urban spaces. While the present study has substantiated that there was no significant difference between people's use of urban spaces before and after the onset of COVID-19. Meanwhile, after the call off of the lockdown, people have shown a very strong desire for social interactions in sociable locations. This fact has revealed the novelty of present study. However, the pedestrians' propensity for commercial spaces has mitigated in comparison with the pre-COVID-19 periods; which is in line with previous studies.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Reza Askarizad
- The Center for Modern Chinese City Studies, Institute of Urban Development, East China Normal University, 200062, China
- Department of Architecture, Academic Center for Education, Culture and Research (ACECR), Rasht, Iran
| | - He Jinliao
- The Center for Modern Chinese City Studies, Institute of Urban Development, East China Normal University, 200062, China
| | - Setareh Jafari
- Department of Architecture, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran
| |
Collapse
|