Predicting 15-Year Mortality in Adults With Congenital Heart Disease Using Disease Severity and Functional Indices

Derivation and Validation of a General Predictive Model for Long Term Risks for Mortality and Invasive Interventions in Congenital and Acquired Cardiac Conditions Encountered in the Young

Accurate prognostic assessment is a key driver of clinical decision making in heart disease in the young (HDY). This investigation aims to derive, validate, and calibrate multivariable predictive models for time to surgical or catheter-mediated intervention (INT) and for time to death in HDY. 4108 unique subjects were prospectively and consecutively enrolled, and randomized to derivation and validation cohorts. Total follow-up was 26,578 patient-years, with 102 deaths and 868 INTs. Accelerated failure time multivariable predictive models for the outcomes, based on primary and secondary diagnoses, pathophysiologic severity, age, sex, genetic comorbidities, and prior interventional history, were derived using piecewise exponential methodology. Model predictions were validated, calibrated, and evaluated for sensitivity to changes in the independent variables. Model validity was excellent for predicting mortality and INT at 4 months, 1, 5, 10, and 22 years (areas under receiver operating characteristic curves 0.813-0.915). Model calibration was better for INT than for mortality. Age, sex, and genetic comorbidities were significant independent factors, but predicted outcomes were most sensitive to variations in composite predictors incorporating primary diagnosis, pathophysiologic severity, secondary diagnosis, and prior intervention. Despite 22 years of data acquisition, no significant cohort effects were identified in which predicted mortality and intervention varied by study entry date. A piecewise exponential model predicting survival and freedom from INT is derived which demonstrates excellent validity, and performs well on a clinical sample of HDY outpatients. Objective model-based predictions could educate both patient and provider, and inform clinical decision making in HDY.

Short-term Prognostic Value of Heart Failure Diagnosis in a Contemporary Cohort of Patients With Adult Congenital Heart Disease

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) is the primary cause of premature death in adult congenital heart disease (ACHD). This study aimed to describe the impact of a HF diagnosis on short-term prognosis and to investigate the added prognostic value of an HF diagnosis to the ACHD Anatomic and Physiologic classification (ACHD-AP).

METHODS

This study included 3995 patients followed in a tertiary care centre (last follow-up after January 1, 2010). Survival curves were plotted, and predictors of the primary end point (death, heart transplantation, or ventricular assist device [VAD]) were identified with the use of Cox proportional hazard models and compared with the use of Harrell's C-statistic.

RESULTS

Mean age at baseline was 35.7 ± 13.3 years. The prevalence of ACHD-HF was 6.4%. During a median follow-up of 3.1 years (IQR 2.1-3.6 years), 27.3% of ACHD-HF patients reached the primary end point, compared with 1.4% of ACHD patients without HF. Event-free survivals were 78.3%, 61.9%, and 57.5% at 1, 3, and 5 years in ACHD-HF patients, compared with 99.3%, 98.3%, and 98.0% in ACHD patients without HF (P < 0.001). An HF diagnosis (HR 6.9, 95% CI 4.3-11.2) and the physiologic classification (HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.9-3.7) were independently associated with the primary end point. The addition of HF to the ACHD-AP classification yielded a Harrell's C-index of 0.8631, providing a significant improvement over the ACHD-AP classification alone (P = 0.0003).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of mortality, transplantation, or VAD is increased in ACHD-HF patients. An HF diagnosis appears to be a valuable prognostic marker in addition to the ACHD-AP classification.

Tuning and external validation of an adult congenital heart disease risk prediction model

Aims

Adequate risk prediction can optimize the clinical management in adult congenital heart disease (ACHD). We aimed to update and subsequently validate a previously developed ACHD risk prediction model.

Methods and results

A prediction model was developed in a prospective cohort study including 602 moderately or severely complex ACHD patients, enrolled as outpatients at a tertiary centre in the Netherlands (2011–2013). Multivariable Cox regression was used to develop a model for predicting the 1-year risks of death, heart failure (HF), or arrhythmia (primary endpoint). The Boston ACHD Biobank study, a prospectively enrolled cohort (n = 749) of outpatients who visited a referral centre in Boston (2012–2017), was used for external validation. The primary endpoint occurred in 153 (26%) and 191 (28%) patients in the derivation and validation cohorts over median follow-up of 5.6 and 2.3 years, respectively. The final model included 5 out of 14 pre-specified predictors with the following hazard ratios; New York Heart Association class ≥II: 1.92 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.28–2.90], cardiac medication 2.52 (95% CI 1.72–3.69), ≥1 reintervention after initial repair: 1.56 (95% CI 1.09–2.22), body mass index: 1.04 (95% CI 1.01–1.07), log₂ N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (pmol/L): 1.48 (95% CI 1.32–1.65). At external validation, the model showed good discrimination (C-statistic 0.79, 95% CI 0.74–0.83) and excellent calibration (calibration-in-the-large = −0.002; calibration slope = 0.99).

Conclusion

These data support the validity and applicability of a parsimonious ACHD risk model based on five readily available clinical variables to accurately predict the 1-year risk of death, HF, or arrhythmia. This risk tool may help guide appropriate care for moderately or severely complex ACHD.

Long-term outcomes in pulmonary arterial hypertension by functional class: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials and observational registries

Limited data about the long-term prognosis and response to therapy in pulmonary arterial hypertension patients with World Health Organization functional class I/II symptoms are available. PubMed and Embase were searched for publications of observational registries and randomized, controlled trials in pulmonary arterial hypertension patients published between January 2001 and January 2018. Eligible registries enrolled pulmonary arterial hypertension patients ≥18 years, N > 30, and reported survival by functional class. Randomized, controlled trial inclusion criteria were pulmonary arterial hypertension patients ≥18 years, ≥6 months of treatment, and morbidity, mortality, or time to worsening as end points reported by functional class. The primary outcomes were survival for registries and clinical event rates for randomized, controlled trials. Separate random effects models were calculated for registries and randomized, controlled trials. Four randomized, controlled trials (n = 2482) and 10 registries (n = 6580) were included. Registries enrolled 9%–47% functional class I/II patients (the vast majority being functional class II) with various pulmonary arterial hypertension etiologies. Survival rates for functional class I/II patients at one, two, and three years were 93% (95% confidence interval (CI): 91%–95%), 86% (95% CI: 82%–89%), and 78% (95% CI: 73%–83%), respectively. The hazard ratio for the treatment effect in randomized, controlled trials overall was 0.61 (95% CI: 0.51–0.74) and 0.60 (95% CI: 0.44–0.82) for functional class I/II patients and 0.62 (95% CI: 0.49–0.78) for functional class III/IV. The calculated risk of death of 22% within three years for functional class I/II patients underlines the need for careful assessment and optimal treatment of patients with functional class I/II disease. The randomized, controlled trial analysis demonstrates that current medical therapies have a beneficial treatment effect in this population.

Physical Functioning, Mental Health, and Quality of Life in Different Congenital Heart Defects: Comparative Analysis in 3538 Patients From 15 Countries

BACKGROUND

We compared physical functioning, mental health, and quality of life (QoL) of patients with different subtypes of congenital heart disease (CHD) in a large international sample and investigated the role of functional class in explaining the variance in outcomes across heart defects.

METHODS

In the cross-sectional Assessment of Patterns of Patient-Reported Outcome in Adults with Congenital Heart Disease-International Study (APPROACH-IS), we enrolled 4028 adult patients with CHD from 15 countries. Diagnostic groups with at least 50 patients were included in these analyses, yielding a sample of 3538 patients (median age: 32 years; 52% women). Physical functioning, mental health, and QoL were measured with the SF-12 health status survey, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), linear analog scale (LAS) and Satisfaction with Life Scale, respectively. Functional class was assessed using the patient-reported New York Heart Association (NYHA) class. Multivariable general linear mixed models were applied to assess the relationship between the type of CHD and patient-reported outcomes, adjusted for patient characteristics, and with country as random effect.

RESULTS

Patients with coarctation of the aorta and those with isolated aortic valve disease reported the best physical functioning, mental health, and QoL. Patients with cyanotic heart disease or Eisenmenger syndrome had worst outcomes. The differences were statistically significant, above and beyond other patient characteristics. However, the explained variances were small (0.6% to 4.1%) and decreased further when functional status was added to the models (0.4% to 0.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

Some types of CHD predict worse patient-reported outcomes. However, it appears that it is the functional status associated with the heart defect rather than the heart defect itself that shapes the outcomes.

Newly Developed Adult Congenital Heart Disease Anatomic and Physiological Classification: First Predictive Validity Evaluation

Background

Risk stratification for adults with congenital heart disease is usually based on the anatomic complexity of the patients’ defect. The 2018 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology guidelines for the management of adults with congenital heart disease proposed a new classification scheme, combining anatomic complexity and current physiological stage of the patient. We aimed to investigate the capacity of the Adult Congenital Heart Disease Anatomic and Physiological classification to predict 15‐year mortality.

Methods and Results

Data on 5 classification systems were collected for 629 patients at the outpatient clinic for a previous study. After 15 years, data on mortality were obtained through medical record review. For this assessment, we additionally collected information on physiological state to determine the Adult Congenital Heart Disease Anatomic and Physiological classification. Harrell's concordance statistics index, obtained through a univariate Cox proportional hazards regression, was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.63−0.78) for the Adult Congenital Heart Disease Anatomic and Physiological classification. Harrell's concordance statistics index of the congenital heart disease anatomic component only was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.60−0.74). The highest Harrell's concordance statistics index was obtained for the anatomic complexity in combination with the Congenital Heart Disease Functional Index (0.79; 95% CI, 0.73–0.84).

Conclusions

This first investigation of the Adult Congenital Heart Disease Anatomic and Physiological classification system provides empirical support for adding the physiological component to the anatomic complexity in the prediction of 15‐year cardiac mortality.