A dynamic online nomogram predicting severe vitamin D deficiency at ICU admission

Age-related nomogram revealed optimal therapeutic option for older patients with primary liver cancer: less is more

BACKGROUND

Age bias in therapeutic decisions for older patients with cancer exists. There is a clear need to individualize such decisions.

METHODS

Based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, 5081 primary liver cancer (PLC) patients between 2010 and 2014 were identified and divided into <64, 64-74 and >74 years group. Each group was randomly divided into training and internal validation cohorts, and patients who were diagnosed between 2015 and 2016 were included as an external validation. The nomogram model predicting overall survival (OS) was generated and evaluated based on the Cox regression for the influencing factors in prognosis. The K-M analysis was used to compare the difference among different treatments.

RESULTS

KM analysis showed a significant difference for OS in three age groups (P < 0.001). At the same time, we also found different prognostic factors and their importance in different age groups. Therefore, we created three nomograms based on the results of Cox regression results for each age group. The c-index was 0.802, 0.766, 0.781 respectively. The calibration curve and ROC curve show that our model has a good predictive efficacy and the reliability was also confirmed in the internal and external validation set. An available online page was established to simplify and visualize our model (http://124.222.247.135/). The results of treatment analysis revealed that the optimal therapeutic option for PLCs was surgery alone.

CONCLUSIONS

The optimal therapeutic option for older PLCs was surgery alone. The generated dynamic nomogram in this study may be a useful tool for personalized clinical decisions.

MRI-Based Machine Learning Fusion Models to Distinguish Encephalitis and Gliomas

This paper aims to compare the performance of the classical machine learning (CML) model and the deep learning (DL) model, and to assess the effectiveness of utilizing fusion radiomics from both CML and DL in distinguishing encephalitis from glioma in atypical cases. We analysed the axial FLAIR images of preoperative MRI in 116 patients pathologically confirmed as gliomas and clinically diagnosed with encephalitis. The 3 CML models (logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP)), 3 DL models (DenseNet 121, ResNet 50 and ResNet 18) and a deep learning radiomic (DLR) model were established, respectively. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, negative predictive value (NPV) and positive predictive value (PPV) were calculated for the training and validation sets. In addition, a deep learning radiomic nomogram (DLRN) and a web calculator were designed as a tool to aid clinical decision-making. The best DL model (ResNet50) consistently outperformed the best CML model (LR). The DLR model had the best predictive performance, with AUC, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, NPV and PPV of 0.879, 0.929, 0.800, 0.875, 0.867 and 0.889 in the validation sets, respectively. Calibration curve of DLR model shows good agreement between prediction and observation, and the decision curve analysis (DCA) indicated that the DLR model had higher overall net benefit than the other two models (ResNet50 and LR). Meanwhile, the DLRN and web calculator can provide dynamic assessments. Machine learning (ML) models have the potential to non-invasively differentiate between encephalitis and glioma in atypical cases. Furthermore, combining DL and CML techniques could enhance the performance of the ML models.

Machine learning-based prediction of vitamin D deficiency: NHANES 2001-2018

Background

Vitamin D deficiency is strongly associated with the development of several diseases. In the current context of a global pandemic of vitamin D deficiency, it is critical to identify people at high risk of vitamin D deficiency. There are no prediction tools for predicting the risk of vitamin D deficiency in the general community population, and this study aims to use machine learning to predict the risk of vitamin D deficiency using data that can be obtained through simple interviews in the community.

Methods

The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2001-2018 dataset is used for the analysis which is randomly divided into training and validation sets in the ratio of 70:30. GBM, LR, NNet, RF, SVM, XGBoost methods are used to construct the models and their performance is evaluated. The best performed model was interpreted using the SHAP value and further development of the online web calculator.

Results

There were 62,919 participants enrolled in the study, and all participants included in the study were 2 years old and above, of which 20,204 (32.1%) participants had vitamin D deficiency. The models constructed by each method were evaluated using AUC as the primary evaluation statistic and ACC, PPV, NPV, SEN, SPE, F1 score, MCC, Kappa, and Brier score as secondary evaluation statistics. Finally, the XGBoost-based model has the best and near-perfect performance. The summary plot of SHAP values shows that the top three important features for this model are race, age, and BMI. An online web calculator based on this model can easily and quickly predict the risk of vitamin D deficiency.

Conclusion

In this study, the XGBoost-based prediction tool performs flawlessly and is highly accurate in predicting the risk of vitamin D deficiency in community populations.

Leveraging a gene signature associated with disulfidptosis identified by machine learning to forecast clinical outcomes, immunological heterogeneities, and potential therapeutic targets within lower-grade glioma

Background

Disulfidptosis, a newly defined type of programmed cell death, has emerged as a significant regulatory process in the development and advancement of malignant tumors, such as lower-grade glioma (LGG). Nevertheless, the precise biological mechanisms behind disulfidptosis in LGG are yet to be revealed, considering the limited research conducted in this field.

Methods

We obtained LGG data from the TCGA and CGGA databases and performed comprehensive weighted co-expression network analysis, single-sample gene set enrichment analysis, and transcriptome differential expression analyses. We discovered nine genes associated with disulfidptosis by employing machine learning methods like Cox regression, LASSO regression, and SVM-RFE. These were later used to build a predictive model for patients with LGG. To confirm the expression level, functional role, and impact on disulfidptosis of ABI3, the pivotal gene of the model, validation experiments were carried out in vitro.

Results

The developed prognostic model successfully categorized LGG patients into two distinct risk groups: high and low. There was a noticeable difference in the time the groups survived, which was statistically significant. The model's predictive accuracy was substantiated through two independent external validation cohorts. Additional evaluations of the immune microenvironment and the potential for immunotherapy indicated that this risk classification could function as a practical roadmap for LGG treatment using immune-based therapies. Cellular experiments demonstrated that suppressing the crucial ABI3 gene in the predictive model significantly reduced the migratory and invasive abilities of both SHG44 and U251 cell lines while also triggering cytoskeletal retraction and increased cell pseudopodia.

Conclusion

The research suggests that the prognostic pattern relying on genes linked to disulfidptosis can provide valuable insights into the clinical outcomes, tumor characteristics, and immune alterations in patients with LGG. This could pave the way for early interventions and suggests that ABI3 might be a potential therapeutic target for disulfidptosis.

A Simple Nomogram for Predicting Hospital Mortality of Patients Over 80 Years in ICU: An International Multicenter Retrospective Study

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to develop and validate an easy-to-use intensive care unit (ICU) illness scoring system to evaluate the in-hospital mortality for very old patients (VOPs, over 80 years old).

METHODS

We performed a multicenter retrospective study based on the electronic ICU (eICU) Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD), Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care Database (MIMIC-III CareVue and MIMIC-IV), and the Amsterdam University Medical Centers Database (AmsterdamUMCdb). Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression was applied to variables selection. The logistic regression algorithm was used to develop the risk score and a nomogram was further generated to explain the score.

RESULTS

We analyzed 23 704 VOPs, including 3 726 deaths (10 183 [13.5% mortality] from eICU-CRD [development set], 12 703 [17.2%] from the MIMIC, and 818 [20.8%] from the AmsterdamUMC [external validation sets]). Thirty-four variables were extracted on the first day of ICU admission, and 10 variables were finally chosen including Glasgow Coma Scale, shock index, respiratory rate, partial pressure of carbon dioxide, lactate, mechanical ventilation (yes vs no), oxygen saturation, Charlson Comorbidity Index, blood urea nitrogen, and urine output. The nomogram was developed based on the 10 variables (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: training of 0.792, testing of 0.788, MIMIC of 0.764, and AmsterdamUMC of 0.808 [external validating]), which consistently outperformed the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, acute physiology score III, and simplified acute physiology score II.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and externally validated a nomogram for predicting mortality in VOPs based on 10 commonly measured variables on the first day of ICU admission. It could be a useful tool for clinicians to identify potentially high risks of VOPs.

A web-based calculator combining Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) and Tilburg Frailty Indicator (TFI) predicts postoperative complications among young elderly patients with gastric cancer

AIM

Nutritional status and frailty are significant indicators reflecting physiological reserve. We sought to establish and validate a web-based calculator containing the Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) and the Tilburg Frailty Indicator (TFI) together with general clinical information to predict total complications among elderly patients with gastric cancer.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study of 582 elderly patients with gastric cancer in a tertiary hospital in China. Nutritional status and frailty were assessed by the GNRI and the TFI, respectively. The nomogram was built and further converted into a web-based calculator. The receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to evaluate the discrimination of the nomogram. Calibration was assessed using the calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test via the bootstrap resampling procedure. The decision curve analyses (DCAs) were employed to quantify the net benefits of a certain threshold probability for assessing the clinical values.

RESULTS

The GNRI (odds ratio [OR], 0.921; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.895-0.949; P < 0.001), the TFI (OR, 1.243; 95% CI, 1.113-1.386; P < 0.001), surgical approach (OR, 1.913; 95% CI, 1.073-3.408; P = 0.028) and comorbidity (OR = 1.599, 95%CI = 1.028-2.486, P = 0.037) were independently associated with total complications. The nomogram demonstrated good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: training cohort, 0.735; validation cohort, 0.777) and calibration (P = 0.135). The DCA curves of the nomogram also showed good positive net benefits.

CONCLUSIONS

The web-based calculator incorporating the GNRI, the TFI, surgical approach, and comorbidity could successfully predict total complications among elderly patients with gastric cancer with good accuracy in a convenient manner. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2023; 23: 205-212.

Score-based prediction model for severe vitamin D deficiency in patients with critical illness: development and validation

BACKGROUND

Severe vitamin D deficiency (SVDD) dramatically increases the risks of mortality, infections, and many other diseases. Studies have reported higher prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in patients with critical illness than general population. This multicenter retrospective cohort study develops and validates a score-based model for predicting SVDD in patients with critical illness.

METHODS

A total of 662 patients with critical illness were enrolled between October 2017 and July 2020. SVDD was defined as a serum 25(OH)D level of < 12 ng/mL (or 30 nmol/L). The data were divided into a derivation cohort and a validation cohort on the basis of date of enrollment. Multivariable logistic regression (MLR) was performed on the derivation cohort to generate a predictive model for SVDD. Additionally, a score-based calculator (the SVDD score) was designed on the basis of the MLR model. The model's performance and calibration were tested using the validation cohort.

RESULTS

The prevalence of SVDD was 16.3% and 21.7% in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The MLR model consisted of eight predictors that were then included in the SVDD score. The SVDD score had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.848 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.781-0.914] and an area under the precision recall curve of 0.619 (95% CI 0.577-0.669) in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

This study developed a simple score-based model for predicting SVDD in patients with critical illness.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov protocol registration ID: NCT03639584. Date of registration: May 12, 2022.