Applying the QUARTZ Trial Results in Clinical Practice: Development of a Prognostic Model Predicting Poor Outcomes for Non-small Cell Lung Cancers with Brain Metastases

Prognostic Factors and Impact of Therapeutic Intervention in Patients With Brain Metastases at the Initial Presentation

Background Studies investigating the normative characteristics and prognosis of patients diagnosed with brain metastases (BMs) at the onset of cancer are scarce. Therefore, we analyzed real-world treatment options. Methodology This retrospective study enrolled 112 patients newly diagnosed with BM between May 2006 and October 2021. The variables examined included patients' age, sex, recurrence split analysis, Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), number of lesions, tumor size, peripheral brain tumor edema, targeted therapy, supportive care, chemotherapy, and date of onset. Prognostic factors were assessed using recursive partitioning analysis (RPA), graded prognostic assessment (GPA) scores, and GPS scoring, with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and computed tomography (CT) studies. Primary treatment comprised whole-brain radiotherapy (WBRT), with regular follow-up. Results Data from 112 survivors were analyzed, revealing a median overall survival time (MST) of 7.7 months, with some patients surviving beyond 24 months post-WBRT. Univariate analysis revealed associations between MST and RPA class, GPS, and treatment modalities (including targeted therapy and chemotherapy). RPA class 2, GPS of 0, and targeted therapy were identified as predictors of better prognosis in the multivariate analysis. In the subgroup not receiving chemotherapy, no significant difference in prognosis was seen between groups with or without WBRT. Conclusions Alongside RPA, scores indicating chronic inflammatory changes, including GPS, were confirmed as crucial prognostic factors. Moreover, treatment with molecularly targeted drugs correlated with favorable prognoses. The treatment-naïve group exhibited poorer prognoses, and WBRT was not deemed a significant prognostic factor in the chemotherapy group.

Glasgow prognostic score for assessing the efficacy of whole-brain radiation therapy in cases of recursive partitioning analysis class 2 and class 3 multiple brain metastases: a retrospective study

PURPOSE

Whole-brain radiotherapy (WBRT) may not be beneficial for patients with brain metastases (BMs). The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) is a suggested prognostic factor for malignancies. However, GPS has never been assessed in patients with BMs who have undergone WBRT. The purpose of this study was to determine whether GPS can be used to identify subgroups of patients with BMs who have a poor prognosis, such as recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) Class 2 and Class 3, and who will not receive clinical prognostic benefits from WBRT.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 180 Japanese patients with BMs were treated with WBRT between May 2008 and October 2015. We examined GPS, age, Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), RPA, graded prognostic assessment (GPA), number of lesions, tumor size, history of brain surgery, presence of clinical symptoms, and radiation doses.

RESULTS

The overall median survival time (MST) was 6.1 months. seventeen patients (9.4%) were alive more than 2 years after WBRT. In univariate analysis, KPS ≤ 70 (p = 0.0066), GPA class 0-2 (p = 0.0008), > 3 BMs (p = 0.012), > 4 BMs (p = 0.02), patients who received ≥ 3 Gy per fraction (p = 0.0068), GPS ≥ 1 (p = 0.0003), and GPS ≥ 2 (p = 0.0009) were found to significantly decrease the MST. Patients who had brain surgery before WBRT (p = 0.036) had a longer survival. On multivariate analysis, GPS ≥ 1 (p = 0.008) was found to significantly decrease MST.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that GPS ≥ 1 indicates a poor prognosis in patients undergoing WBRT for intermediate and poor prognosis BMs.

Added survival benefit of whole brain radiotherapy in brain metastatic non-small cell lung cancer: Development and external validation of an individual prediction model

Background

The heterogeneous survival benefit of whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) in brain metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) was prospectively evidenced in the Quality of Life after Treatment for Brain Metastases (QUARTZ) trial, resulting in inconsistent guideline recommendations and diverse clinical practices for giving WBRT. The objective of this study was to develop and externally validate an individual prediction model to demonstrate the added survival benefit of WBRT to assist decision making when giving WBRT is undetermined.

Methods

For model development, we collected 479 brain metastatic NSCLC patients unfit for surgery or stereotactic radiotherapy techniques at Siriraj Hospital. Potential predictors were age, sex, performance status, histology, genetic mutation, neurological symptoms, extracranial disease, previous systemic treatment, measurable lesions, further systemic treatment, and WBRT. Cox proportional hazard regression was used for survival analysis. We used multiple imputations to handle missing data and a backward selection method for predictor selection. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation, while model performance was assessed with discrimination (c-index) and calibration prediction accuracy. The final model was transformed into a nomogram and a web-based calculator. An independent cohort from Sawanpracharak Hospital was used for external validation.

Results

In total, 452 patients in the development cohort died. The median survival time was 4.4 (95% CI, 3.8-4.9) months, with 5.1 months for patients who received WBRT and 2.3 months for those treated with optimal supportive care (OSC). The final model contained favorable predictors: female sex, KPS > 70, receiving additional systemic treatment, and WBRT. Having active extracranial disease, experiencing neurological symptoms, and receiving previous systemic treatment were adverse predictors. After optimism correction, the apparent c-index dropped from 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.74) to 0.70 (95% CI, 0.69-0.73). The predicted and observed values agreed well in all risk groups. Our model performed well in the external validation cohort, with a c-index of 0.66 (95% CI, 0.59-0.73) and an acceptable calibration.

Conclusions

This model (https://siriraj-brainmetscore.netlify.app/) predicted the added survival benefit of WBRT for individual brain metastatic NSCLC patients, with satisfactory performance in the development and validation cohorts. The results certify its value in aiding treatment decision-making when the administration of WBRT is unclear.

Radiotherapy of brain metastasis from lung cancer in limited resource settings

Radiotherapy is one of the most commonly used treatment modality for brain metastases from lung cancer. Its use has evolved from conventional whole brain radiation therapy (WBRT) to more sophisticated stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) and hippocampal sparing radiotherapy. Indications of cranial radiotherapy are also evolving with the advent of targeted therapies directed against molecular markers like epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK). Prognostic criteria such as recursive partitioning analyses and graded prognostic score helps in prognostication of brain metastases patients. Majority of the prospective and randomized studies of brain metastases from lung cancer have come from the developed countries with adequate resources. Efforts have been made to replicate or validate the data in developing countries. In this overview, we intend to discuss the role of radiotherapy for brain metastases in limited resource settings of developing countries. The aim should be to generate a good quality data which is applicable for routine clinical practice in a resource friendly manner. SRS is indicated in guidelines for limited brain metastases, however, it requires a more sophisticated treatment delivery and quality assurance machines which are not available at many centres in majority of the developing countries. Similarly, clinical research should be undertaken considering the demographic, clinical and genetic differences among different populations. Currently, tyrosine kinase inhibitors have dramatically changed the outcomes of metastatic non-small cell lung cancer including brain metastases. The role of WBRT is being questioned in driver mutated patients in developed countries. However, the applicability of this approach should be examined in resource constrained settings as availability of these drugs is limited, its higher cost and frequent use of surveillance brain imaging are the practical challenges.

Radiotherapy challenges in COVID era

The pandemic caused by the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) associated with a disease named COVID-19 by the World Health Organization that began in late 2019 in Wuhan city has become a global public health problem. Only 2 months later, the new virus affected most countries of the world, the consequence being an overload of health systems, especially Intensive Care Units. Considered a category of patients at high risk of developing severe forms of the disease, cancer patients can develop a severe form of the disease, complicated by acute respiratory distress syndrome requiring mechanical ventilation. Radiotherapy, as a treatment included in the multidisciplinary management of cancer for both curative and palliative purposes, is also affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19-positive or -suspected patients are a special category for which the decision to postpone treatment should be made based on the particularities of tumor biology and the radiobiological effect of a gap in radiation fractions delivery. Emergencies including spinal cord compressions, tumor bleeding, and brain metastases not responsive to corticosteroid treatment, should be considered a priority but the palliative treatment should be limited from one single fraction to maximum five fractions for spinal cord compression and whole brain radiotherapy. Radiotherapy for brain metastases does not bring a benefit in terms of overall survival for patients with life expectancy of days or weeks and dexamethasone treatment is the correct choice in this situation. In all settings, the approach of radiotherapy treatment must be adapted for both scenarios of an outbreak pandemic, when general measures of social distancing and protection by specific equipment of patients and radiotherapy staff are a priority, but also for a long period of coexistence with the virus with possible new “pandemic waves.”

Type and timing of systemic therapy use predict overall survival for patients with brain metastases treated with radiation therapy

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to investigate whether systemic therapy (ST) use surrounding radiation therapy (RT) predicts overall survival (OS) after RT for patients with brain metastases (BMs).

METHODS

Provincial RT and pharmacy databases were used to review all adult patients in British Columbia, Canada, who received a first course of RT for BMs between 2012 and 2016 (n = 3095). Multivariate analysis on a randomly selected subset was used to develop an OS nomogram.

RESULTS

In comparison to the 2096 non-recipients of ST after RT, the median OS of the 999 recipients of ST after RT was 5.0 (95% Confidence interval (CI) 4.1-6.0) months longer (p < 0.0001). Some types of ST after RT were independently predictive of OS: targeted therapy (hazard ratio (HR) 0.42, CI 0.37-0.48), hormone therapy (HR 0.45, CI 0.36-0.55), cytotoxic chemotherapy (HR 0.71, CI 0.64-0.79), and immunotherapy (HR 0.64, CI 0.37-1.06). Patients who discontinued ST after RT had 0.9 (CI 0.3-1.4) months shorter median OS than patients who received no ST before or after RT (p < 0.0001). In the multivariate analysis of the 220-patient subset, established prognostic variables (extracranial disease, performance status, age, cancer diagnosis, and number of BMs), and the novel variables "ST before RT" and "Type of ST after RT" independently predicted OS. The nomogram predicted 6- and 12-month OS probability and median OS (bootstrap-corrected Harrell's Concordance Index = 0.70).

CONCLUSIONS

The type and timing of ST use surrounding RT predict OS for patients with BMs.

Role of radiotherapy in the management of brain metastases of NSCLC - Decision criteria in clinical routine

BACKGROUND

Whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) is a common treatment option for brain metastases secondary to non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Data from the QUARTZ trial suggest that WBRT can be omitted in selected patients and treated with optimal supportive care alone. Nevertheless, WBRT is still widely used to treat brain metastases secondary to NSCLC. We analysed decision criteria influencing the selection for WBRT among European radiation oncology experts.

METHODS

Twenty-two European radiation oncology experts in lung cancer as selected by the European Society for Therapeutic Radiation Oncology (ESTRO) for previous projects and by the Advisory Committee on Radiation Oncology Practice (ACROP) for lung cancer were asked to describe their strategies in the management of brain metastases of NSCLC. Treatment strategies were subsequently converted into decision trees and analysed for agreement and discrepancies.

RESULTS

Eight decision criteria (suitability for SRS, performance status, symptoms, eligibility for targeted therapy, extra-cranial tumour control, age, prognostic scores and "Zugzwang" (the compulsion to treat)) were identified. WBRT was recommended by a majority of the European experts for symptomatic patients not suitable for radiosurgery or fractionated stereotactic radiotherapy. There was also a tendency to use WBRT in the ALK/EGFR/ROS1 negative NSCLC setting.

CONCLUSION

Despite the results of the QUARTZ trial WBRT is still widely used among European radiation oncology experts.

[Short-term survival prediction scale in patients with metastatic brain disease caused by lung and breast cancer]

OBJECTIVE

To develop a prognostic scale suitable for distinguishing a group of poor prognosis with low survival prior to deciding on the appropriateness of radiotherapy.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We analyzed only those patients with reliably known date of death after previous WBRT to determine objective criteria allowing WBRT abandonment. WBRT was carried out in 100 patients with non-small cell lung cancer (n=49) and breast cancer (n=51) and confirmed metastatic brain disease. All procedures have been conducted at the radiotherapy department of the Herzen Moscow Oncology Research Institute since January 2014. The prescribed dose of 3 Gy was ensured in all patients. Total focal dose of 30 Gy delivered in 10 fractions was achieved in 77 cases, 36 Gy delivered in 12 fractions - in 23 cases.

RESULTS

Death date was recorded in all patients (n=100) by January 2020. In the electronic SPSS database, death information was digitized for each patient up to 2-24 months, respectively. We identified eight the most significant factors by using of correlation analysis: primary tumor (controlled (0), uncontrolled (1)), number of brain metastases (<17 (0), ≥17 (1)), volume of brain metastases (<48 cm³ (0) ≥48 cm³ (1)), extracranial control (no metastases (0), metastases with positive dynamics after chemotherapy (1), continued growth after chemotherapy (2)), metastatic lesion of liver and lungs, respectively (no (0), yes (1)), functional status (≥ 70% (0), ≤ 60% (1)), carcinomatosis of the meninges (no (0), yes (1)). A simple summation of digital variables for factors 1-8 in each patient resulted a prognostic scale. Low risk of early mortality after WBRT was determined by 0-3 scores, intermediate risk - 4-5 scores, high risk - 6-9 scores. According to univariate analysis (log-rank 0.000), median survival rate varied in these groups: low risk - 15.5 months (11.4-19.7), intermediate risk - 5.26 months (4.6-6.0), high risk - only 1.35 months (0.9-1.8). Only 1 out of 15 high-risk patients (6-9 scores) survived 3 months (3.25 months). Inclusion of all eight factors into multivariate analysis revealed significant impact of only risk group on short-term survival. A 3-month survival in the high-risk group was 20.6 times lower (p=0.002) compared to the low and intermediate risk groups.

CONCLUSION

High significance of prognostic model and low informative value of each of the included factors emphasize the advisability of determining risk groups for short-term survival according to the suggested scale for each patient scheduled for WBRT. A simple assessment of separate predictors is pointless to decide whether WBRT is necessary.

Comparison of Diagnosis-Specific Survival Scores for Patients with Small-Cell Lung Cancer Irradiated for Brain Metastases

Diagnosis-specific survival scores including a new score developed in 157 patients with brain metastases from small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) receiving whole-brain radiotherapy (WBRT) with 30 Gy in 10 fractions (WBRT-30-SCLC) were compared. Three prognostic groups were designed based on the 6-month survival probabilities of significant or almost significant factors, (age, performance score, number of brain metastases, extra-cerebral metastasis). Six-month survival rates were 6% (6–11 points), 44% (12–14 points) and 86% (16–19 points). The WBRT-30-SCLC was compared to three disease-specific scores for brain metastasis from SCLC, the original and updated diagnosis-specific graded prognostic assessment DS-GPA classifications and the Rades-SCLC. Positive predictive values (PPVs) used to correctly predict death ≤6 months were 94% (WBRT-30-SCLC), 88% (original DS-GPA), 88% (updated DS-GPA) and 100% (Rades-SCLC). PPVs to predict survival ≥6 months were 86%, 75%, 76% and 100%. For WBRT-30-SCLC and Rades-SCLC, differences between poor and intermediate prognoses groups and between intermediate and favorable prognoses groups were significant. For both DS-GPA classifications, only the difference between poor and intermediate prognoses groups was significant. Of these disease-specific tools, Rades-SCLC appeared to be the most accurate in identifying patients dying ≤6 months and patients surviving ≥6 months after irradiation, followed by the new WBRT-30-SCLC and the DS-GPA classifications.

Management of patients with brain metastases from non-small cell lung cancer and adverse prognostic features: multi-national radiation treatment recommendations are heterogeneous

Background

Different management options exist for patients with brain metastases from non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), patients whose treatment with whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) has become more controversial over the last decade. It is not trivial to find the optimal balance of over- versus undertreatment in these patients. Several recent trials, including the randomized QUARTZ trial now influence the decision to recommend or withhold WBRT for patients with unfavorable prognosis, and similarly, for favorable prognosis patients, the balance between radiosurgery alone or WBRT has become a nuanced decision. Additionally, the availability of intracranially active targeted agent for some subsets of these patients has added another layer of complexity to the decision-making.

Methods

A multinational consortium of expert radiation oncologists was established with the aim of compiling treatment recommendations for challenging scenarios, in this case the choice between optimal supportive care (SC), WBRT and other types of radiation therapy (RT). We distributed 17 cases to 7 radiation oncologists who were allowed to involve coworkers to provide their treatment recommendations. The cases differed in extra- and intracranial disease extent, histology, age and other prognostic factors. Expert recommendations were tabulated with the aim of providing guidance.

Results

Regarding willingness to include the 17 patients in the QUARTZ trial, the rates of trial inclusion were low (range 0/7 to 3/7). Experts not recommending trial inclusion provided their treatment recommendations. These suggestions differed widely for most of the patients. It was not uncommon to see 3 or 4 different recommendations. In general, few (0–2) recommended SC. Some kind of local treatment was suggested by the majority of experts for all 17 patients. Commonly, stereotactic single-fraction radiosurgery (SRS) or stereotactic fractionated radiotherapy (SFRT) were recommended by many experts, also for patients with 5–7 lesions. The highest proportion of recommendations towards WBRT in any patient was 3/7. It was also quite common for patients with multiple metastases of varying size that experts suggested combinations of resection, post-operative SRS/SFRT and SRS/SFRT to intact lesions. Despite recommending active treatment, experts were often willing to include the patients in a hypothetical protocol investigating radiotherapy utilization in the last 30 days of life (assessment of factors predicting early death).

Conclusions

WBRT was infrequently recommended. Even in patients with adverse prognostic features that raised the experts’ awareness of an increased risk for futile treatment near the end of life, SRS/SFRT were more often recommended than optimal supportive care, unless a patient decided to forego active treatment.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13014-019-1237-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.