A matter of trust: Learning lessons about causality will make qAOPs credible

The database makes the poison: How the selection of datasets in QSAR models impacts toxicant prediction of higher tier endpoints

As the United States and the European Union continue their steady march towards the acceptance of new approach methodologies (NAMs), we need to ensure that the available tools are fit for purpose. Critics will be well-positioned to caution against NAMs acceptance and adoption if the tools turn out to be inadequate. In this paper, we focus on Quantitative Structure Activity-Relationship (QSAR) models and highlight how the training database affects quality and performance of these models. Our analysis goes to the point of asking, "are the endpoints extracted from the experimental studies in the database trustworthy, or are they false negatives/positives themselves?" We also discuss the impacts of chemistry on QSAR models, including issues with 2-D structure analyses when dealing with isomers, metabolism, and toxicokinetics. We close our analysis with a discussion of challenges associated with translational toxicology, specifically the lack of adverse outcome pathways/adverse outcome pathway networks (AOPs/AOPNs) for many higher tier endpoints. We recognize that it takes a collaborate effort to build better and higher quality QSAR models especially for higher tier toxicological endpoints. Hence, it is critical to bring toxicologists, statisticians, and machine learning specialists together to discuss and solve these challenges to get relevant predictions.

Quantitative modeling of in vitro data using an adverse outcome pathway for the risk assessment of decreased lung function in humans

In the absence of epidemiological data, there is a need to develop computational models that convert in vitro findings to human disease risk predictions following toxicant exposure. In such efforts, in vitro data can be evaluated in the context of adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) that organize mechanistic knowledge based on empirical evidence into a sequence of molecular-, cellular-, tissue-, and organ-level key events that precede an adverse outcome (AO). Here we combined data from advanced in vitro organotypic airway models exposed to combustible cigarette (CC) smoke or Tobacco Heating System (THS) aerosol with an AOP for increased oxidative stress leads to decreased lung function. The mathematical modeling predicted reduced risk of decreased ciliary beating frequency (CBF) based on oxidative stress measurements and reduced risk of decreased mucociliary clearance (MCC) based on CBF measurements in THS aerosol- compared with CC smoke-exposed cultures. To extend the predictions to the AO of decreased lung function, we leveraged human MCC data from current smokers, nonsmokers, former smokers, and users of heated tobacco products. This approach provided a plausible prediction of diminished reduction in lung function in response to THS use compared with continued smoking. The current approach may also present a basis for an integrated approach to testing and assessment of tobacco products for future regulatory decision-making.

The adverse outcome pathway for breast cancer: a knowledge management framework bridging biomedicine and toxicology

Breast cancer is the most common cancer worldwide, with an estimated 2.3 million new cases diagnosed every year. Effective measures for cancer prevention and cancer therapy require a detailed understanding of the individual key disease mechanisms involved and their interactions at the molecular, cellular, tissue, organ, and organism level. In that regard, the rapid progress of biomedical and toxicological research in recent years now allows the pursuit of new approaches based on non-animal methods that provide greater mechanistic insight than traditional animal models and therefore facilitate the development of Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOPs) for human diseases. We performed a systematic review of the current state of published knowledge with regard to breast cancer to identify relevant key mechanisms for inclusion into breast cancer AOPs, i.e. decreased cell stiffness and decreased cell adhesion, and to concurrently map non-animal methods addressing these key events. We conclude that the broader sharing of expertise and methods between biomedical research and toxicology enabled by the AOP knowledge management framework can help to coordinate global research efforts and accelerate the transition to advanced non-animal methods, which, when combined into powerful method batteries, closely mimic human physiology and disease states without the need for animal testing.

Risk assessment in the 21st century: where are we heading?

Reliance on animal tests for chemical safety assessment is increasingly being challenged, not only because of ethical reasons, but also because they procrastinate regulatory decisions and because of concerns over the transferability of results to humans. New approach methodologies (NAMs) need to be fit for purpose and new thinking is required to reconsider chemical legislation, validation of NAMs and opportunities to move away from animal tests. This article summarizes the presentations from a symposium at the 2022 Annual Congress of the British Toxicology Society on the topic of the future of chemical risk assessment in the 21st century. The symposium included three case-studies where NAMs have been used in safety assessments. The first case illustrated how read-across augmented with some in vitro tests could be used reliably to perform the risk assessment of analogues lacking data. The second case showed how specific bioactivity assays could identify an NAM point of departure (PoD) and how this could be translated through physiologically based kinetic modelling in an in vivo PoD for the risk assessment. The third case showed how adverse-outcome pathway (AOP) information, including molecular-initiating event and key events with their underlying data, established for certain chemicals could be used to produce an in silico model that is able to associate chemical features of an unstudied substance with specific AOPs or AOP networks. The manuscript presents the discussions that took place regarding the limitations and benefits of these new approaches, and what are the barriers and the opportunities for their increased use in regulatory decision making.