Paranormal belief and errors of probabilistic reasoning: The role of constituent conditional relatedness in believers' susceptibility to the conjunction fallacy

The association between the belief in coronavirus conspiracy theories, miracles, and the susceptibility to conjunction fallacy

Previous research has shown that people who endorse conspiracy theories are more prone to the conjunction fallacy: the tendency to perceive conjunct events as more probable than constituent events. The present study examined the relationship between specific beliefs (belief in conspiracy theories, religiosity) and the susceptibility to conjunction errors (CEs) in specific domains. A total of 500 participants was presented with brief scenarios from the domains "coronavirus conspiracy," "miraculous healing," and a control condition. Each scenario included one statement about a separate event and a second statement about two joint events co-occurring. The participants estimated the probability of each statement. Results showed that the number of CEs made in the coronavirus domain was only associated with the belief in conspiracy theories, while general religiosity was only associated with CEs for scenarios describing miraculous healings. The assessed beliefs were not associated with CEs made in the control condition. Results suggest that distinct beliefs are uniquely associated with the susceptibility to conjunction errors in particular domains.

Evidence of the psychological effects of pseudoscientific information about COVID-19 on rural and urban populations

This research aims to analyze the effects of pseudoscientific information (PI) about COVID-19 on the mental well-being of the general population. A total of 782 participants were classified according to the type of municipality in which they lived (rural municipalities and urban municipalities). The participants answered psychometric questionnaires that assessed psychological well-being, pseudoscientific beliefs and the ability to discriminate between scientific and pseudoscientific information about COVID-19. The results indicated the following: the greater the ability to discriminate between false information and true information, the greater the levels of psychological well-being perceived by the participant. The ability to discriminate predicts up to 32% of psychological well-being only for subjects living in rural municipalities. Residents in urban municipalities showed lower levels of well-being than residents in rural municipalities. It is concluded that new social resources are needed to help the general population of urban municipalities discriminate between pseudoscientific and scientific information.

Pseudoscientific beliefs and psychopathological risks increase after COVID-19 social quarantine

BACKGROUND

The health crisis caused by COVID-19 has led many countries to opt for social quarantine of the population. During this quarantine, communication systems have been characterized by disintermediation, the acceleration of digitization and an infodemic (excess and saturation of information). The following debate arises: Do the levels related to the psychotic phenotype and pseudoscientific beliefs related to the interpretation of information vary before and after social quarantine?

OBJECTIVES

This research aims to examine the psychological effects of social quarantine on the psychotic phenotype and pseudoscientific beliefs-experiences of the general nonclinical population. The following hypothesis was posed: social quarantine alters the levels of magical thinking, pseudoscientific beliefs and anomalous perceptions due to quarantine.

METHODS

A pre- and posttest analysis design was applied based on the difference in means, and complementary Bayesian estimation was performed. A total of 174 Spanish subjects responded to different questionnaires that evaluated psychopathological risks based on psychotic phenotypes, pseudoscientific beliefs and experiences before and after quarantine.

RESULTS

Significant differences were obtained for the variables positive psychotic symptoms, depressive symptoms, and certain perceptual alterations (e.g., cenesthetic perceptions), and a significant increase in pseudoscientific beliefs was also observed. The perceptual disturbances that increased the most after quarantine were those related to derealization and depersonalization. However, paranoid perceptions showed the highest increase, doubling the initial standard deviation. These high increases could be related to the delimitation of physical space during social quarantine and distrust towards information communicated by the government to the population. Is it possible that social alarmism generated by the excess of information and pseudoscientific information has increased paranoid perceptual alterations?

CONCLUSIONS

Measures taken after quarantine indicate that perceptual disturbances, subclinical psychotic symptoms and beliefs in the pseudoscience have increased. We discuss which elements of quarantine coincide with the social marginality theory and its clinical repercussions.

Paranormal belief, thinking style preference and susceptibility to confirmatory conjunction errors

This study examines the extent to which belief in extrasensory perception (ESP), psychokinesis (PK) or life after death (LAD), plus need for cognition (NFC) and faith in intuition (FI), predict the generation of confirmatory conjunction errors. An opportunity sample (n = 261) completed sixteen conjunction problems manipulated across a 2 event type (paranormal vs. non-paranormal) × 2 outcome type (confirmatory vs. disconfirmatory) within subjects design. Three Generalised Linear Mixed Models - one per paranormal belief type - were performed. With respondent gender and age controlled for, ESP, PK and LAD beliefs were all associated with the making (vs. non-making) of conjunction errors both generally and specifically for confirmatory conjunctive outcomes. Event type had no impact. Individuals high in NFC were less likely to commit the fallacy. The role thinking style plays in shaping paranormal believers' susceptibility to confirmatory conjunction biases is discussed. Methodological issues and future research ideas are also considered.

The Australian Sheep-Goat Scale: An Evaluation of Factor Structure and Convergent Validity

The Australian Sheep-Goat Scale (ASGS) is a commonly used measure of belief in the paranormal. The scale contains items that index extrasensory perception (ESP), psychokinesis (PK), and life after death (LAD). Although, research employs the ASGS as both a general (unidimensional) and factorial (multidimensional) measure, few studies have examined the appropriateness of these solutions. Accordingly, the present paper tested the psychometric integrity of the ASGS via two studies. Study 1 assessed ASGS factorial structure using confirmatory factor analysis. To achieve this, merging of ASGS data from previously published studies and ongoing work created a heterogeneous sample of 1,601 responses. Analysis revealed that a two-factor bifactor model best explained ASGS organization. This comprised a general overarching factor incorporating two subfactors (ESP and PK). Factor loadings and omega reliability supported a unidimensional structure for the most part. Removal of LAD items improved model fit because the factor added unnecessary complexity and undermined scale psychometric integrity. Study 2, using a supplementary composite sample of 320 respondents, assessed the convergent validity of the emergent ASGS model against a recently published Revised Paranormal Belief Scale (RPBS) bifactor solution. Comparison revealed high convergent validity. The general ASGS factor, despite deriving from only psi-related dimensions (ESP and PK) predicted RPBS scores. This finding indicated that ASGS brevity relative to the RPBS is advantageous when assessing general belief in the paranormal. The ASGS, notwithstanding limited construct content, functions as an effective measure of paranormal belief. Additionally, Study 2 replicated the bifactor structure identified in Study 1 and invariance testing supported invariance of form, factor loadings and item intercepts for this solution across Studies 1 and 2.