The population genomic legacy of the second plague pandemic

Investigation of the Correlation between Enterovirus Infection and the Climate Factor Complex Including the Ping-Year Factor and El Niño-Southern Oscillation in Taiwan

Enterovirus infection and enterovirus infection with severe complications (EVSC) are critical issues in several aspects. However, there is no suitable predictive tool for these infections. A climate factor complex (CFC) containing several climate factors could provide more effective predictions. The ping-year factor (PYF) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are possible CFCs. This study aimed to determine the relationship between these two CFCs and the incidence of enterovirus infection. Children aged 15 years and younger with enterovirus infection and/or EVSC were enrolled between 2007 and 2022. Each year was categorized into a ping-year or non-ping-year according to the PYF. Poisson regression was used to evaluate the associations between the PYF, ENSO, and the incidence of enterovirus infection. Compared to the ping-year group, the incidence rate of enterovirus infection, the incidence rate of EVSC, and the ratio of EVSC in the non-ping-year group were 1.24, 3.38, and 2.73 times higher, respectively (p < 0.001). For every one-unit increase in La Niña, the incidence rate of enterovirus infection decreased to 0.96 times (p < 0.001). Our study indicated that CFCs could be potential predictors for enterovirus infection, and the PYF was more suitable than ENSO. Further research is needed to improve the predictive model.

Genetic history of Cambridgeshire before and after the Black Death

The extent of the devastation of the Black Death pandemic (1346-1353) on European populations is known from documentary sources and its bacterial source illuminated by studies of ancient pathogen DNA. What has remained less understood is the effect of the pandemic on human mobility and genetic diversity at the local scale. Here, we report 275 ancient genomes, including 109 with coverage >0.1×, from later medieval and postmedieval Cambridgeshire of individuals buried before and after the Black Death. Consistent with the function of the institutions, we found a lack of close relatives among the friars and the inmates of the hospital in contrast to their abundance in general urban and rural parish communities. While we detect long-term shifts in local genetic ancestry in Cambridgeshire, we find no evidence of major changes in genetic ancestry nor higher differentiation of immune loci between cohorts living before and after the Black Death.

Unveiling recent and ongoing adaptive selection in human populations

Genome-wide scans for signals of selection have become a routine part of the analysis of population genomic variation datasets and have resulted in compelling evidence of selection during recent human evolution. This Essay spotlights methodological innovations that have enabled the detection of selection over very recent timescales, even in contemporary human populations. By harnessing large-scale genomic and phenotypic datasets, these new methods use different strategies to uncover connections between genotype, phenotype, and fitness. This Essay outlines the rationale and key findings of each strategy, discusses challenges in interpretation, and describes opportunities to improve detection and understanding of ongoing selection in human populations.

Benchmarking software tools for trimming adapters and merging next-generation sequencing data for ancient DNA

Ancient DNA is highly degraded, resulting in very short sequences. Reads generated with modern high-throughput sequencing machines are generally longer than ancient DNA molecules, therefore the reads often contain some portion of the sequencing adaptors. It is crucial to remove those adaptors, as they can interfere with downstream analysis. Furthermore, overlapping portions when DNA has been read forward and backward (paired-end) can be merged to correct sequencing errors and improve read quality. Several tools have been developed for adapter trimming and read merging, however, no one has attempted to evaluate their accuracy and evaluate their potential impact on downstream analyses. Through the simulation of sequencing data, seven commonly used tools were analyzed in their ability to reconstruct ancient DNA sequences through read merging. The analyzed tools exhibit notable differences in their abilities to correct sequence errors and identify the correct read overlap, but the most substantial difference is observed in their ability to calculate quality scores for merged bases. Selecting the most appropriate tool for a given project depends on several factors, although some tools such as fastp have some shortcomings, whereas others like leeHom outperform the other tools in most aspects. While the choice of tool did not result in a measurable difference when analyzing population genetics using principal component analysis, it is important to note that downstream analyses that are sensitive to wrongly merged reads or that rely on quality scores can be significantly impacted by the choice of tool.

Genetic Load and Adaptive Potential of a Recovered Avian Species that Narrowly Avoided Extinction

High genetic diversity is a good predictor of long-term population viability, yet some species persevere despite having low genetic diversity. Here we study the genomic erosion of the Seychelles paradise flycatcher (Terpsiphone corvina), a species that narrowly avoided extinction after having declined to 28 individuals in the 1960s. The species recovered unassisted to over 250 individuals in the 1990s and was downlisted from Critically Endangered to Vulnerable in the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List in 2020. By comparing historical, prebottleneck (130+ years old) and modern genomes, we uncovered a 10-fold loss of genetic diversity. Highly deleterious mutations were partly purged during the bottleneck, but mildly deleterious mutations accumulated. The genome shows signs of historical inbreeding during the bottleneck in the 1960s, but low levels of recent inbreeding after demographic recovery. Computer simulations suggest that the species long-term small Ne reduced the masked genetic load and made the species more resilient to inbreeding and extinction. However, the reduction in genetic diversity due to the chronically small Ne and the severe bottleneck is likely to have reduced the species adaptive potential to face environmental change, which together with a higher load, compromises its long-term population viability. Thus, small ancestral Ne offers short-term bottleneck resilience but hampers long-term adaptability to environmental shifts. In light of rapid global rates of population decline, our work shows that species can continue to suffer the effect of their decline even after recovery, highlighting the importance of considering genomic erosion and computer modeling in conservation assessments.

Fine-scale environmentally associated spatial structure of lumpfish (Cyclopterus lumpus) across the Northwest Atlantic

Lumpfish, Cyclopterus lumpus, have historically been harvested throughout Atlantic Canada and are increasingly in demand as a solution to controlling sea lice in Atlantic salmon farms-a process which involves both the domestication and the transfer of lumpfish between geographic regions. At present, little is known regarding population structure and diversity of wild lumpfish in Atlantic Canada, limiting attempts to assess the potential impacts of escaped lumpfish individuals from salmon pens on currently at-risk wild populations. Here, we characterize the spatial population structure and genomic-environmental associations of wild populations of lumpfish throughout the Northwest Atlantic using both 70K SNP array data and whole-genome re-sequencing data (WGS). At broad spatial scales, our results reveal a large environmentally associated genetic break between the southern populations (Gulf of Maine and Bay of Fundy) and northern populations (Newfoundland and the Gulf of St. Lawrence), linked to variation in ocean temperature and ice cover. At finer spatial scales, evidence of population structure was also evident in a distinct coastal group in Newfoundland and significant isolation by distance across the northern region. Both evidence of consistent environmental associations and elevated genome-wide variation in F ST values among these three regional groups supports their biological relevance. This study represents the first extensive description of population structure of lumpfish in Atlantic Canada, revealing evidence of broad and fine geographic scale environmentally associated genomic diversity. Our results will facilitate the commercial use of lumpfish as a cleaner fish in Atlantic salmon aquaculture, the identification of lumpfish escapees, and the delineation of conservation units of this at-risk species throughout Atlantic Canada.

Across the North Sea and beyond

Increasing numbers of ancient genomes from the Viking period retrieved across the North Sea regions are revealing a complex layer of genetic ancestries and a past cosmopolitanism that was triggered by different mobility patterns.

Insufficient evidence for natural selection associated with the Black Death

Klunk et al. analyzed ancient DNA data from individuals in London and Denmark before, during and after the Black Death [1], and argued that allele frequency changes at immune genes were too large to be produced by random genetic drift and thus must reflect natural selection. They also identified four specific variants that they claimed show evidence of selection including at ERAP2, for which they estimate a selection coefficient of 0.39-several times larger than any selection coefficient on a common human variant reported to date. Here we show that these claims are unsupported for four reasons. First, the signal of enrichment of large allele frequency changes in immune genes comparing people in London before and after the Black Death disappears after an appropriate randomization test is carried out: the P value increases by ten orders of magnitude and is no longer significant. Second, a technical error in the estimation of allele frequencies means that none of the four originally reported loci actually pass the filtering thresholds. Third, the filtering thresholds do not adequately correct for multiple testing. Finally, in the case of the ERAP2 variant rs2549794, which Klunk et al. show experimentally may be associated with a host interaction with Y. pestis, we find no evidence of significant frequency change either in the data that Klunk et al. report, or in published data spanning 2,000 years. While it remains plausible that immune genes were subject to natural selection during the Black Death, the magnitude of this selection and which specific genes may have been affected remains unknown.

Genomic diversity and differentiation between island and mainland populations of white-tailed eagles (Haliaeetus albicilla)

Divergence in the face of high dispersal capabilities is a documented but poorly understood phenomenon. The white-tailed eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla) has a large geographic dispersal capability and should theoretically be able to maintain genetic homogeneity across its dispersal range. However, following analysis of the genomic variation of white-tailed eagles, from both historical and contemporary samples, clear signatures of ancient biogeographic substructure across Europe and the North-East Atlantic is observed. The greatest genomic differentiation was observed between island (Greenland and Iceland) and mainland (Denmark, Norway and Estonia) populations. The two island populations share a common ancestry from a single mainland population, distinct from the other sampled mainland populations, and despite the potential for high connectivity between Iceland and Greenland they are well separated from each other and are characterized by inbreeding and little variation. Temporal differences also highlight a pattern of regional populations persisting despite the potential for admixture. All sampled populations generally showed a decline in effective population size over time, which may have been shaped by four historical events: (1) Isolation of refugia during the last glacial period 110-115,000 years ago, (2) population divergence following the colonization of the deglaciated areas ~10,000 years ago, (3) human population expansion, which led to the settlement in Iceland ~1100 years ago, and (4) human persecution and exposure to toxic pollutants during the last two centuries.

The genetic history of Scandinavia from the Roman Iron Age to the present

We investigate a 2,000-year genetic transect through Scandinavia spanning the Iron Age to the present, based on 48 new and 249 published ancient genomes and genotypes from 16,638 modern individuals. We find regional variation in the timing and magnitude of gene flow from three sources: the eastern Baltic, the British-Irish Isles, and southern Europe. British-Irish ancestry was widespread in Scandinavia from the Viking period, whereas eastern Baltic ancestry is more localized to Gotland and central Sweden. In some regions, a drop in current levels of external ancestry suggests that ancient immigrants contributed proportionately less to the modern Scandinavian gene pool than indicated by the ancestry of genomes from the Viking and Medieval periods. Finally, we show that a north-south genetic cline that characterizes modern Scandinavians is mainly due to the differential levels of Uralic ancestry and that this cline existed in the Viking Age and possibly earlier.