The stability and collapse of marine ecosystems during the Permian-Triassic mass extinction

Extinction cascades, community collapse, and recovery across a Mesozoic hyperthermal event

Mass extinctions are considered to be quintessential examples of Court Jester drivers of macroevolution, whereby abiotic pressures drive a suite of extinctions leading to huge ecosystem changes across geological timescales. Most research on mass extinctions ignores species interactions and community structure, limiting inference about which and why species go extinct, and how Red Queen processes that link speciation to extinction rates affect the subsequent recovery of biodiversity, structure and function. Here, we apply network reconstruction, secondary extinction modelling and community structure analysis to the Early Toarcian (Lower Jurassic; 183 Ma) Extinction Event and recovery. We find that primary extinctions targeted towards infaunal guilds, which caused secondary extinction cascades to higher trophic levels, reproduce the empirical post-extinction community most accurately. We find that the extinction event caused a switch from a diverse community with high levels of functional redundancy to a less diverse, more densely connected community of generalists. Recovery was characterised by a return to pre-extinction levels of some elements of community structure and function prior to the recovery of biodiversity. Full ecosystem recovery took ~7 million years at which point we see evidence of dramatically increased vertical structure linked to the Mesozoic Marine Revolution and modern marine ecosystem structure.

On the multiscale dynamics of punctuated evolution

For five decades, paleontologists, paleobiologists, and ecologists have investigated patterns of punctuated equilibria in biology. Here, we step outside those fields and summarize recent advances in the theory of and evidence for punctuated equilibria, gathered from contemporary observations in geology, molecular biology, genetics, anthropology, and sociotechnology. Taken in the aggregate, these observations lead to a more general theory that we refer to as punctuated evolution. The quality of recent datasets is beginning to illustrate the mechanics of punctuated evolution in a way that can be modeled across a vast range of phenomena, from mass extinctions hundreds of millions of years ago to the possible future ahead in the Anthropocene. We expect the study of punctuated evolution to be applicable beyond biological scenarios.

Predictability of ecological and evolutionary dynamics in a changing world

Ecological and evolutionary predictions are being increasingly employed to inform decision-makers confronted with intensifying pressures on biodiversity. For these efforts to effectively guide conservation actions, knowing the limit of predictability is pivotal. In this study, we provide realistic expectations for the enterprise of predicting changes in ecological and evolutionary observations through time. We begin with an intuitive explanation of predictability (the extent to which predictions are possible) employing an easy-to-use metric, predictive power PP(t). To illustrate the challenge of forecasting, we then show that among insects, birds, fishes and mammals, (i) 50% of the populations are predictable at most 1 year in advance and (ii) the median 1-year-ahead predictive power corresponds to a prediction R 2 of only 20%. Predictability is not an immutable property of ecological systems. For example, different harvesting strategies can impact the predictability of exploited populations to varying degrees. Moreover, incorporating explanatory variables, accounting for time trends and considering multivariate time series can enhance predictability. To effectively address the challenge of biodiversity loss, researchers and practitioners must be aware of the information within the available data that can be used for prediction and explore efficient ways to leverage this knowledge for environmental stewardship.

New keratose sponges after the end-Permian extinction provide insights into biotic recoveries

We challenge the prevailing view that the end-Permian extinction impeded the Triassic evolution of sponges. Here, we report a deep-water community dominated by abundant keratose sponges in the lowest Triassic strata from Southwest China. The sponge fossils occur as dark elliptical imprints in mudstone with distinct oscula on their tops. The structure of preserved fibers suggests closest affinity with the extant Dictyoceratida, an aspiculate demosponge. The exceptional preservation plays a crucial role in retaining their exquisite structures. Sedimentary, taphonomic, pyrite framboid, and trace elemental analyses indicate that the sponges proliferated in an oxygen-poor habitat, demonstrating the high tolerance of sponges to severe conditions. Sponge proliferation is a signal of environmental upheaval but they also stabilized the ecosystem, driving the first phase of biotic recovery after the end-Permian extinction.

The great catastrophe: causes of the Permo-Triassic marine mass extinction

The marine losses during the Permo-Triassic mass extinction were the worst ever experienced. All groups were badly affected, especially amongst the benthos (e.g. brachiopods, corals, bryozoans, foraminifers, ostracods). Planktonic populations underwent a fundamental change with eukaryotic algae being replaced by nitrogen-fixing bacteria, green-sulphur bacteria, sulphate-reducing bacteria and prasinophytes. Detailed studies of boundary sections, especially those in South China, have resolved the crisis to a ∼55 kyr interval straddling the Permo-Triassic boundary. Many of the losses occur at the beginning and end of this interval painting a picture of a two-phase extinction. Improved knowledge of the extinction has been supported by numerous geochemical studies that allow diverse proposed extinction mechanisms to be studied. A transition from oxygenated to anoxic-euxinic conditions is seen in most sections globally, although the intensity and timing shows regional variability. Decreased ocean ventilation coincides with rapidly rising temperatures and many extinction scenarios attribute the losses to both anoxia and high temperatures. Other kill mechanisms include ocean acidification for which there is conflicting support from geochemical proxies and, even less likely, siltation (burial under a massive influx of terrigenous sediment) which lacks substantive sedimentological evidence. The ultimate driver of the catastrophic changes at the end of the Permian was likely Siberian Trap eruptions and their associated carbon dioxide emissions with consequences such as warming, ocean stagnation and acidification. Volcanic winter episodes stemming from Siberian volcanism have also been linked to the crisis, but the short-term nature of these episodes ( Collapse

Key Words

• ocean acidification
• ocean anoxia
• productivity collapse
• siltation
• volcanic winter

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MESH Headings Collapse

Grants

• NERC

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Affiliation(s)

Paul B Wignall School of Earth & Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
David P G Bond School of Environmental Sciences, University of Hull, Hull HU6 7RX, UK

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Quantifying the complexity of plant reproductive structures reveals a history of morphological and functional integration

Vascular plant reproductive structures have undoubtedly become more complex through time, evolving highly differentiated parts that interact in specialized ways. But quantifying these patterns at broad scales is challenging because lineages produce disparate reproductive structures that are often difficult to compare and homologize. We develop a novel approach for analysing interactions within reproductive structures using networks, treating component parts as nodes and a suite of physical and functional interactions among parts as edges. We apply this approach to the plant fossil record, showing that interactions have generally increased through time and that the concentration of these interactions has shifted towards differentiated surrounding organs, resulting in more compact, functionally integrated structures. These processes are widespread across plant lineages, but their extent and timing vary with reproductive biology; in particular, seed-producing structures show them more strongly than spore or pollen-producing structures. Our results demonstrate that major reproductive innovations like the origin of seeds and angiospermy were associated with increased integration through greater interactions among parts. But they also reveal that for certain groups, particularly Mesozoic gymnosperms, millions of years elapsed between the origin of reproductive innovations and increased interactions among parts within their reproductive structures.

Palaeobiology: Rapid succession during mass extinction

The mass extinction at the end of the Permian period was a time of considerable ecological upheaval. A new study shows that in Southern Africa top predators replaced each other in succession across the end-Permian interval, suggesting that ecological crisis preceded the mass extinction.

Rapid turnover of top predators in African terrestrial faunas around the Permian-Triassic mass extinction

Catastrophic ecosystem disruption in the late Permian period resulted in the greatest loss of biodiversity in Earth's history, the Permian-Triassic mass extinction (PTME).¹ The dominant terrestrial vertebrates of the Permian (synapsids) suffered major losses at this time, leading to their replacement by reptiles in the Triassic.² The dominant late Permian predatory synapsids, gorgonopsians, were completely extirpated by the PTME. The largest African gorgonopsians, the Rubidgeinae, have traditionally been assumed to go extinct at the Permo-Triassic boundary (PTB).^3,4,5 However, this apparent persistence through the sustained extinction interval characterizing the continental PTME⁶ is at odds with ecological theory indicating that top predators have high extinction risk.⁷ Here, we report the youngest known large-bodied gorgonopsians, gigantic specimens from the PTB site of Nooitgedacht 68 in South Africa. These specimens are not rubidgeine, and instead are referable to Inostrancevia, a taxon previously thought to be a Russian endemic.⁸ Based on comprehensive review of the South African gorgonopsian record, we show that rubidgeines were early victims of ecosystem disruption preceding the PTME and were replaced as top predators by Laurasian immigrant inostranceviines. The reign of this latter group was short-lived, however; by the PTB, gorgonopsians were extinct, and a different group (therocephalians) became the largest synapsid predators, before themselves going extinct. The extinction and replacement of top predators in rapid succession at the clade level underlines the extreme degree of ecosystem instability in the latest Permian and earliest Triassic, a phenomenon that was likely global in extent.

Paleobiology: Anatomy of a mass extinction double whammy

The Permo-Triassic mass extinction has been resolved into two closely spaced crises that both saw enormous extinction losses. However, food web modelling suggests they were not ecologically equivalent, only the second destabilised communities.