Comparison of predictive value of activity limitation staging systems based on dichotomous versus trichotomous responses in the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey

Prediction of cognitive impairment among Medicare beneficiaries using a machine learning approach

OBJECTIVE

Developing machine learning (ML) models to predict cognitive impairment among Medicare beneficiaries in the United States.

METHODS

This retrospective study used the 2016-2019 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey Cost and Use and Survey Public Use Files. Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and older (n=4,965) with at least two consecutive years' data were included. Cognitive impairment was categorized into three stages: severe, moderate, and none based on self-reported data. Baseline year's demographic, socioeconomic factors, self-reported functional limitations, health status and comorbidities, number of concurrent medications, level of social engagement, behavioral variables, and satisfaction of medical care's quality were features assessed in ML algorithms to predict next years' cognitive function. ML models in six major categories were developed, tested, and compared (accuracy, AUC, and F1 score) using Python version 3.11. The importance of features was evaluated using the total reduction of the Gini. A subgroup analysis was conducted among beneficiaries who were 80 years and older.

RESULTS

Approximately 11.1% of beneficiaries aged ≥ 65 had moderate or severe cognitive function impairment. Baseline cognitive function was the most significant predictor for next year's cognitive function impairment, followed by baseline IADL, level of social activities, ADL, general health status, income, age, education, region of residence, and body mass index. Beneficiaries 80 years and older had satisfaction of medical care's quality among the top 10 most significant predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

Older adults' baseline cognitive function and IADL were top two predictors of cognitive function impairment. Clinicians should regularly screen and monitor older adults' cognitive and daily function.

Self-Care Capacity and Its Relationship to Age, Disability, and Perceived Well-Being in Medicare Beneficiaries

BACKGROUND

Self-care is a multicomponent set of capacities that influence beliefs about health and well-being.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the relationship between self-care capacity, age, and disability status with two perceptions of well-being in a cohort of Medicare beneficiaries.

METHODS

The current study is part of a multisite research project to determine factors associated with cross-sectional and longitudinal morbidity and mortality trajectories observed in Medicare beneficiaries. Variable selection was informed by the health disparities and outcomes model. Using data from the 2013 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey and logistic regression models, we determined associations between self-care capacity, including indicators of self-care ability and self-care agency and two perceptions of well-being. Participants were divided into four groups based on how they qualified for Medicare: (a) over 65 years of age, and below 65 years of age and disabled because of (b) physical or (c) mental disorder, or (d) disabled and could not be classified as physically or mentally disabled as the primary cause of eligibility.

RESULTS

Self-care ability limitations in activities of daily living (ADL), instrumental activities of living (IADL), and social activity participation were associated with both health perceptions. Those with physical disabilities reported more ADL and IADL limitations when compared with the other eligibility groups and were significantly more likely to have negative health perceptions. Those with serious mental illness were most likely to report the most severe IADL limitations. The over 65 years of age group reported less self-care incapacity than the other three eligibility types. Other components of self-care, including health literacy, agency, and health behaviors, significantly influenced perceptions of health. Women and people identifying as non-Whites were more likely to have negative health perceptions.

DISCUSSION

Self-care capacity is a complex construct, and its varied elements have differential relationships with perceptions of well-being. Those with physical disabilities reported more self-care limitations, poorer perceived health, and more health worries than the other groups. Still, there were different patterns of self-care capacities in the serious mental illness type-especially in IADL limitations. The study adds empirical evidence to previous research documenting inequities in health outcomes for women and non-Whites. Findings provide empirical support for the health disparities and outcomes model.

Predicting 3-year mortality and admission to acute-care hospitals, skilled nursing facilities, and long-term care facilities in Medicare beneficiaries

PURPOSE

The ability to predict mortality and admission to acute care hospitals, skilled nursing facilities (SNFs), and long-term care (LTC) facilities in the elderly and how it varies by activity of daily living (ADL) and instrumental ADL (IADL) status could be useful in measuring the success or failure of economic, social, or health policies aimed at disability prevention and management. We sought to derive and assess the predictive performance of rules to predict 3-year mortality and admission to acute care hospitals, SNFs, and LTC facilities among Medicare beneficiaries with differing ADL and IADL functioning levels.

METHODS

Prospective cohort using Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data from the 2001 to 2007 entry panels. In all, 23,407 community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries were included. Multivariable logistic models created predicted probabilities for all-cause mortality and admission to acute care hospitals, SNFs, and LTC facilities, adjusting for sociodemographics, health conditions, impairments, behavior, and function.

RESULTS

Sixteen, 22, 14, and 14 predictors remained in the final parsimonious model predicting 3-year all-cause mortality, inpatient admission, SNF admission, and LTC facility admission, respectively. The C-statistic for predicting 3-year all-cause mortality, inpatient admission, SNF admission, and LTC facility admission was 0.779, 0.672, 0.753, and 0.826 in the ADL activity limitation stage development cohorts, respectively, and 0.788, 0.669, 0.748, and 0.799 in the ADL activity limitation stage validation cohorts, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Parsimonious models can identify elderly Medicare beneficiaries at risk of poor outcomes and can aid policymakers, clinicians, and family members in improving care for older adults and supporting successful aging in the community.

The Association Between Activity Limitation Stages and Admission to Facilities Providing Long-term Care Among Older Medicare Beneficiaries

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to examine whether activity limitation stages are associated with admission to facilities providing long-term care (LTC).

DESIGN

Cohort study using Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data from the 2005-2009 entry panels. A total of 14,580 community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries 65 years or older were included. Proportional subhazard models examined associations between activity limitation stages and time to first LTC admission, adjusting for baseline sociodemographics and health conditions.

RESULTS

The weighted annual rate of LTC admission was 1.1%. In the adjusted model, compared to activity of daily living (ADL) stage 0, the hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) were 2.0 (1.5-2.7), 3.9 (2.9-5.4), 3.6 (2.5-5.3), and 4.7 (2.5-9.0) for ADL stage I (mild limitation), ADL stage II (moderate limitation), ADL stage III (severe limitation), and ADL stage IV (complete limitation), respectively. Compared to instrumental ADL (IADL) stage 0, the hazard ratios, and 95% CIs for IADL stages I to IV were 2.0 (1.4-2.7), 3.7 (2.6-5.4), 4.6 (3.3-6.5), and 7.6 (4.6-12.3), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Activity limitation stages are strongly associated with future admission to LTC and may therefore be useful in identifying specific supportive care needs among vulnerable older community-dwelling adults, which may reduce or the delay need for admission to LTC.

Perceived barriers to healthcare and receipt of recommended medical care among elderly Medicare beneficiaries

PURPOSE

Many Medicare beneficiaries perceive barriers to receiving healthcare, although the consequences are unknown. Facilitators can aid in the receipt of healthcare services. The objective was to assess the relationship between perceived facilitators and barriers to healthcare and actual receipt of recommended medical care among elderly beneficiaries.

METHODS

A cohort study using data from the 2001-2008 entry panels of the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey that included 24,607 community-dwelling beneficiaries 65 years of age and older. Surveys elicited perceptions of healthcare with respect to: care coordination and quality; access to medical care; getting or delaying healthcare because of financial reasons; transportation; and usual source of care. The outcome was receipt of recommended medical care, expressed as an aggregate of 38 indicators covering initial evaluation, diagnostic tests, therapeutic interventions, hospitalization follow-up, and routine preventive care. Multivariable survey logistic regression produced odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for receipt of recommended medical care, adjusted for sociodemographics, insurance, comorbidities, and disability.

RESULTS

Beneficiaries who reported having trouble getting or reported delaying healthcare because of financial reasons (barrier) (adjusted OR=0.79, 95% CI: 0.73-0.86) and those who reported having no usual source of care (facilitator) (adjusted OR=0.55, 95% CI: 0.48-0.63) were less likely to receive recommended medical care.

CONCLUSIONS

Survey data that capture patient perceptions of facilitators and barriers to healthcare may be useful for identifying system factors that affect timely receipt of recommended medical care. This information can inform the design of policies and programs to improve the healthcare of older adults.

Predictive Indices for Functional Improvement and Deterioration, Institutionalization, and Death Among Elderly Medicare Beneficiaries

BACKGROUND

Prediction models can help clinicians provide the best and most appropriate care to their patients and can help policy makers design services for groups at highest risk for poor outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To develop prediction models identifying both risk factors and protective factors for functional deterioration, institutionalization, and death.

DESIGN

Cohort study using data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS).

SETTING

Community survey.

PARTICIPANTS

This study included 21,264 Medicare beneficiaries 65 years of age and older who participated in the MCBS from the 2001-2008 entry panels and were followed up for 2 years.

METHODS

The index was derived in 60% and validated in the remaining 40%. β Coefficients from a multinomial logistic regression model were used to derive points, which were added together to create scores associated with the outcome.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

The outcome was activity of daily living (ADL) stage transitions over 2 years following entry into the MCBS. Beneficiaries were categorized into 1 of 4 outcome categories: stable or improved function, functional deterioration, institutionalization, or death.

RESULTS

Our model identified 16 factors for functional deterioration (age, gender, education, living arrangement, dual eligibility, proxy use, Alzheimer disease/dementia, angina pectoris/coronary heart disease, diabetes, emphysema/asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, mental/psychiatric disorder, Parkinson disease, stroke/brain hemorrhage, hearing impairment, vision impairment, and baseline ADL stage) after backward selection (P < .05). Compared to stable or improved function, the risk of functional deterioration ranged from ≤1 to ≥6, ≤4 to ≥22 for the risk of institutionalization, and ≤3 to ≥16 for the risk of death.

CONCLUSION

Predictive indices, or point and scoring systems used to predict outcomes, can identify elderly Medicare beneficiaries at risk for functional deterioration, institutionalization, and death and can aid policy makers, clinicians, and family members in improving care for older adults and supporting successful aging in the community.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

III.

Disparities in receipt of recommended care among younger versus older medicare beneficiaries: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Although health disparities have been documented between Medicare beneficiaries based on age (<65 years vs. older age groups), underuse of recommended medical care in younger beneficiaries has not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we aim to identify and characterize vulnerabilities of the younger Medicare age group (aged <65 years) in relation to older age groups (aged 65-74 years and ≥75 years) and to explore age group as a determinant of use of recommended care among Medicare beneficiaries.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort study of community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries who participated in the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey between 2001 and 2008 (N = 30,117). Age group characteristics were compared using cross-sectional data at baseline. During follow-up, we assessed the association between age and receipt of recommended care on 38 recommended care indicators, adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. Follow-up periods differed by component indicator.

RESULTS

At baseline, a higher proportion of younger beneficiaries experienced social disadvantage, disability and certain morbidities than older age groups. During follow-up, younger beneficiaries were significantly less likely to receive overall recommended care compared to those 65-74 years of age (adjusted odds ratio and 95% confidence interval: 0.75, 0.70-0.80). In addition, male gender, non-Hispanic black race, less than high school education, living alone, with children or with others, psychiatric disorders and higher activity limitation stages were all associated with underuse of recommended care.

CONCLUSIONS

Younger Medicare beneficiary status appears to be an independent risk factor for underuse of appropriate care. Support to ameliorate disparities in different social and health aspects may be warranted.

Type of Multimorbidity and Patient-Doctor Communication and Trust among Elderly Medicare Beneficiaries

Background. Effective communication and high trust with doctor are important to reduce the burden of multimorbidity in the rapidly aging population of the US. However, the association of multimorbidity with patient-doctor communication and trust is unknown. Objective. We examined the relationship between multimorbidity and patient-doctor communication and trust among the elderly. Method. We used the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (2012) to analyze the association between multimorbidity and patient-doctor communication and trust with multivariable logistic regressions that controlled for patient's sociodemographic characteristics, health status, and satisfaction with care. Results. Most elderly beneficiaries reported effective communication (87.5-97.5%) and high trust (95.4-99.1%) with their doctors. The elderly with chronic physical and mental conditions were less likely than those with only physical conditions to report effective communication with their doctor (Adjusted Odds Ratio [95% Confidence Interval] = 0.80 [0.68, 0.96]). Multimorbidity did not have a significant association with patient-doctor trust. Conclusions. Elderly beneficiaries had high trust in their doctors, which was not affected by the presence of multimorbidity. Elderly individuals who had a mental condition in addition to physical conditions were more likely to report ineffective communication. Programs to improve patient-doctor communication with patients having cooccurring chronic physical and mental health conditions may be needed.

Disability stage and receipt of recommended care among elderly medicare beneficiaries

BACKGROUND

Receipt of recommended care among older adults is generally low. Findings regarding service use among persons with disabilities supports the notion of disparities but provides inconsistent evidence of underuse of recommended care.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the extent to which receipt of recommended care among older Medicare beneficiaries varies by disability status, using a newly developed staging method to classify individuals according to disability.

METHODS

In a cohort study, we included community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and older who participated in the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey between 2001 and 2008. Logistic regression modeling assessed the association of receiving recommended care on 38 indicators across different activity limitation stages.

RESULTS

Nearly one out of every three elderly Medicare beneficiaries did not receive overall recommended care. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) revealed a decrease in use of recommended care with increasing activity limitation stage. For instance, ORs (95% CIs) across mild, moderate, severe and complete limitation stages (stages I-IV) compared to no limitation (stage 0) in ADLs were 0.99 (0.94-1.05), 0.89 (0.83-0.95), 0.81 (0.75-0.89) and 0.56 (0.46-0.68). Disparities in receipt of recommended care by disability stage were most marked for care related to post-hospitalization follow-up and, to a lesser degree, care of chronic conditions and preventive care.

CONCLUSIONS

Elderly beneficiaries at higher activity limitation stages experienced substantial disparities in receipt of recommended care. Tailored interventions may be needed to reduce disparities in receipt of recommended medical care in this population.

Activity Limitation Stages Are Associated With Risk of Hospitalization Among Medicare Beneficiaries

BACKGROUND

Activity limitation stages based on activities of daily living (ADLs) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) are associated with 3-year mortality in elderly Medicare beneficiaries, yet their associations with hospitalization risk in this population have not been studied.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the independent association of activity limitation stages with risk of hospitalization within a year among Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years and older.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

Community.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 9447 community-dwelling elderly Medicare beneficiaries from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey for years 2005-2009.

METHODS

Stages were derived for ADLs and IADLs separately. Associations of stages with time to first hospitalization and time to recurrent hospitalizations within a year were assessed with Cox proportional hazards models, with which we accounted for baseline sociodemographics, smoking status, comorbidities, and the year of survey entry.

MAIN OUTCOMES

Time to first hospitalization and time to recurrent hospitalizations within 1 year.

PRINCIPLE FINDINGS

The adjusted risk of first hospitalization increased with greater activity limitation stages (except stage III). The hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for ADL stages I-IV compared with stage 0 (no limitations) were 1.49 (1.36-1.63), 1.61 (1.44-1.80), 1.54 (1.35-1.76), and 2.06 (1.61-2.63), respectively. The pattern for IADL stages was similar. For recurrent hospitalizations, activity limitation stages were associated with the risk of the first hospitalization but not with subsequent hospitalizations.

CONCLUSION

Activity limitation stages are associated with the risk of first hospitalization in the subsequent year among elderly Medicare beneficiaries. Stages capture clinically interpretable profiles of ADL and IADL functionality and describe preserved functions and activity limitation in an aggregated measure. Stage can inform interventions to ameliorate disability and thus reduce the risk of a subsequent hospitalization in this population.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

IV.