Obesity markers for the prediction of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus in resource-poor settings: The CRONICAS Cohort Study

Establishment of dynamic nomogram and risk score models for T2DM: a retrospective cohort study in Beijing

BACKGROUND

Health interventions can delay or prevent the occurrence and development of diabetes. Dynamic nomogram and risk score (RS) models were developed to predict the probability of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and identify high-risk groups.

METHODS

Participants (n = 44,852) from the Beijing Physical Examination Center were followed up for 11 years (2006-2017); the mean follow-up time was 4.06 ± 2.09 years. Multivariable Cox regression was conducted in the training cohort to identify risk factors associated with T2DM and develop dynamic nomogram and RS models using weighted estimators corresponding to each covariate derived from the fitted Cox regression coefficients and variance estimates, and then undergone internal validation and sensitivity analysis. The concordance index (C-index) was used to assess the accuracy and reliability of the model.

RESULTS

Of the 44,852 individuals at baseline, 2,912 were diagnosed with T2DM during the follow-up period, and the incidence density rate per 1,000 person-years was 16.00. Multivariate analysis indicated that male sex (P < 0.001), older age (P < 0.001), high body mass index (BMI, P < 0.05), high fasting plasma glucose (FPG, P < 0.001), hypertension (P = 0.015), dyslipidaemia (P < 0.001), and low serum creatinine (sCr, P < 0.05) at presentation were risk factors for T2DM. The dynamic nomogram achieved a high C-index of 0.909 in the training set and 0.905 in the validation set. A tenfold cross-validation estimated the area under the curve of the nomogram at 0.909 (95% confidence interval 0.897-0.920). Moreover, the dynamic nomogram and RS model exhibited acceptable discrimination and clinical usefulness in subgroup and sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

The T2DM dynamic nomogram and RS models offer clinicians and others who conduct physical examinations, respectively, simple-to-use tools to assess the risk of developing T2DM in the urban Chinese current or retired employees.

Obesity and cardiovascular disease: mechanistic insights and management strategies. A joint position paper by the World Heart Federation and World Obesity Federation

The ongoing obesity epidemic represents a global public health crisis that contributes to poor health outcomes, reduced quality of life, and >2.8 million deaths each year. Obesity is relapsing, progressive, and heterogeneous. It is considered a chronic disease by the World Obesity Federation (WOF) and a chronic condition by the World Heart Federation (WHF). People living with overweight/obesity are at greater risk for cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality. Increased adiposity (body fat), particularly visceral/abdominal fat, is linked to CV risk and CV disease (CVD) via multiple direct and indirect pathophysiological mechanisms. The development of CVD is driven, in part, by obesity-related metabolic, endocrinologic, immunologic, structural, humoral, haemodynamic, and functional alterations. The complex multifaceted nature of these mechanisms can be challenging to understand and address in clinical practice. People living with obesity and CVD often have concurrent chronic physical or psychological disorders (multimorbidity) requiring multidisciplinary care pathways and polypharmacy. Evidence indicates that intentional weight loss (particularly when substantial) lowers CVD risk among people with overweight/obesity. Long-term weight loss and maintenance require ongoing commitment from both the individual and those responsible for their care. This position paper, developed by the WOF and the WHF, aims to improve understanding of the direct and indirect links between overweight/obesity and CVD, the key controversies in this area and evidence relating to cardiometabolic outcomes with available weight management options. Finally, an action plan for clinicians provides recommendations to help in identifying and addressing the risks of obesity-related CVD (recognizing resource and support variances between countries).

Interactions between Vitamin D Genetic Risk and Dietary Factors on Metabolic Disease-Related Outcomes in Ghanaian Adults

The Ghanaian population is experiencing an upsurge in obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D) due to rapid urbanization. Besides dietary factors, vitamin D-related genetic determinants have also been shown to contribute to the development of obesity and T2D. Hence, we aimed to examine the interactions between dietary factors and vitamin D-related genetic variants on obesity and T2D related outcomes in a Ghanaian population. Three hundred and two healthy Ghanaian adults (25-60 years old) from Oforikrom, Municipality in Kumasi, Ghana were randomly recruited and had genetic tests, dietary consumption analysis, and anthropometric and biochemical measurements of glucose, HbA1c, insulin, cholesterol, and triglycerides taken. A significant interaction was identified between vitamin D-GRS and fiber intake (g/day) on BMI (pinteraction = 0.020) where those who were consuming low fiber (≤16.19 g/d) and carrying more than two risk alleles for vitamin D deficiency (p = 0.01) had a significantly higher BMI. In addition, an interaction between vitamin D-GRS and fat intake (g/day) on HbA1c (total fat, pinteraction = 0.029) was found, where participants who had a lower total fat intake (≤36.5 g/d), despite carrying more than two risk alleles, had significantly lower HbA1c (p = 0.049). In summary, our study has identified novel gene-diet interactions of vitamin D-GRS with dietary fiber and fat intakes on metabolic traits in Ghanaian adults.

Peru - Progress in health and sciences in 200 years of independence

Peru celebrates 200 years of independence in 2021. Over this period of independent life, and despite the turbulent socio-political scenarios, from internal armed conflict to economic crisis to political instability over the last 40 years, Peru has experienced major changes on its epidemiological and population health profile. Major advancements in maternal and child health as well as in communicable diseases have been achieved in recent decades, and today Peru faces an increasing burden of non-communicable diseases including mental health conditions. In terms of the configuration of the public health system, Peru has also strived to secure country-wide optimal health care, struggling in particular to improve primary health care and intercultural services. The science and technology infrastructure has also evolved, although the need for substantial investments remains if advancing science is to be a national priority. Climate change will also bring significant challenges to population health given Peru's geographical and microclimates diversity. Looking back over the 200-years of independence, we present a summary of key advances in selected health-related fields, thus serving as the basis for reflections on pending agendas and future challenges, in order to look forward to ensuring the future health and wellbeing of the Peruvian population.

Resumen translated abstract

El Perú cumple 200 años de independencia en 2021. Durante estos dos siglos de vida independiente, junto con periodos sociales y políticos turbulentos, incluyendo un conflicto armado interno, hiperinflación y la inestabilidad política de los últimos 40 años, el Perú ha experimentado importantes cambios en su perfil epidemiológico con repercusiones directas en la salud de la población. En las últimas décadas, los indicadores de salud materno-infantil y de las enfermedades transmisibles muestran mejoría importante, pero el país se enfrenta de manera simultánea a una carga cada vez mayor de enfermedades no transmisibles y de salud mental. En cuanto a los sistemas de salud pública, se han realizado esfuerzos por aumentar la cobertura y calidad de la atención de salud en todo el país, apostándose en particular por mejorar la atención primaria. La ciencia y tecnología relacionadas con la salud también han mejorado, aunque si se quiere que la ciencia sea una prioridad nacional, son necesarias inversiones sustanciales. El cambio climático traerá importantes desafíos para la salud de la población, dada la diversidad geográfica y de microclimas del país. Para conmemorar los 200 años de vida independiente del Perú, presentamos un resumen de avances clave en diversas áreas y temas relacionados con la salud. Este repaso sirve como base para reflexionar sobre agendas y desafíos pendientes y futuros, con el fin de asegurar la salud y el bienestar de la población peruana en las próximas décadas.