Understanding infectious agents from an in silico perspective

Assessing Uncertainty in A2 Respiratory Syncytial Virus Viral Dynamics

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common cause of bronchiolitis and pneumonia in children younger than 1 year of age in the United States. Moreover, RSV is being recognized more often as a significant cause of respiratory illness in older adults. Although RSV has been studied both clinically and in vitro, a quantitative understanding of the infection dynamics is still lacking. In this paper, we study the effect of uncertainty in the main parameters of a viral kinetics model of RSV. We first characterize the RSV replication cycle and extract parameter values by fitting the mathematical model to in vivo data from eight human subjects. We then use Monte Carlo numerical simulations to determine how uncertainty in the parameter values will affect model predictions. We find that uncertainty in the infection rate, eclipse phase duration, and infectious lifespan most affect the predicted dynamics of RSV. This study provides the first estimate of in vivo RSV infection parameters, helping to quantify RSV dynamics. Our assessment of the effect of uncertainty will help guide future experimental design to obtain more precise parameter values.

Systems biology of fungal infection

Elucidation of pathogenicity mechanisms of the most important human-pathogenic fungi, Aspergillus fumigatus and Candida albicans, has gained great interest in the light of the steadily increasing number of cases of invasive fungal infections. A key feature of these infections is the interaction of the different fungal morphotypes with epithelial and immune effector cells in the human host. Because of the high level of complexity, it is necessary to describe and understand invasive fungal infection by taking a systems biological approach, i.e., by a comprehensive quantitative analysis of the non-linear and selective interactions of a large number of functionally diverse, and frequently multifunctional, sets of elements, e.g., genes, proteins, metabolites, which produce coherent and emergent behaviors in time and space. The recent advances in systems biology will now make it possible to uncover the structure and dynamics of molecular and cellular cause-effect relationships within these pathogenic interactions. We review current efforts to integrate omics and image-based data of host-pathogen interactions into network and spatio-temporal models. The modeling will help to elucidate pathogenicity mechanisms and to identify diagnostic biomarkers and potential drug targets for therapy and could thus pave the way for novel intervention strategies based on novel antifungal drugs and cell therapy.

Thermodynamic concepts in the study of microbial populations: age structure in Plasmodium falciparum infected red blood cells

Variability is a hallmark of microbial systems. On the one hand, microbes are subject to environmental heterogeneity and undergo changeable conditions in their immediate surroundings. On the other hand, microbial populations exhibit high cellular diversity. The relation between microbial diversity and variability of population dynamics is difficult to assess. This connection can be quantitatively studied from a perspective that combines in silico models and thermodynamic methods and interpretations. The infection process of Plasmodium falciparum parasitizing human red blood cells under laboratory cultivation conditions is used to illustrate the potential of Individual-based models in the context of predictive microbiology and parasitology. Experimental data from several in vitro cultures are compared to the outcome of an individual-based model and analysed from a thermodynamic perspective. This approach allows distinguishing between intrinsic and external constraints that give rise to the diversity in the infection forms, and it provides a criterion to quantitatively define transient and stationary regimes in the culture. Increasing the ability of models to discriminate between different states of microbial populations enhances their predictive capability which finally leads to a better the control over culture systems. The strategy here presented is of general application and it can substantially improve modelling of other types of microbial communities.