Is Mississippi's prescription-only precursor control law a prescription to decrease the production and raise the price of methamphetamine?

Temporary gains and permanent costs in methamphetamine precursor control

James Cunningham and co-authors did pioneering work in evaluating the impact of precursor control on methamphetamine markets and related harms. We discuss their studies, as well as others that followed, and review what is known of precursor control's short-run and long-run impacts. We interpret the evidence to suggest that precursor control was likely cost-effective initially. However, long-run supply adjustments by illicit meth producers weakened the controls' efficacy. Meanwhile, regulations on legal consumers of cold medications were permanent and unavoidable, which may have closed the gap on the positive net benefits that had accrued initially in the short run. Our review underscores the challenges policymakers face in achieving their goals when supply can adjust long-term, but non-participants in illegal markets cannot.

"The DEA would come in and destroy you": a qualitative study of fear and unintended consequences among opioid prescribers in WV

Background

West Virginia has one of the highest rates of opioid overdose related deaths and is known as the epicenter of the opioid crisis in the United States. In an effort to reduce opioid-related harms, SB 273 was signed in 2018, and aimed to restrict opioid prescribing in West Virginia. SB 273 was enacted during a time when physician arrests and convictions had been increasing for years and were becoming more prevalent and more publicized. This study aims to better understand the impact of the legislation on patients and providers.

Methods

Twenty semi-structured interviews were conducted with opioid-prescribing primary care physicians and specialists practicing throughout West Virginia.

Results

Four themes emerged, 1. Fear of disciplinary action, 2. Exacerbation of opioid prescribing fear due to restrictive legislation, 3. Care shifts and treatment gaps, and 4. Conversion to illicit substances. The clinicians recognized the harms of inappropriate prescribing and how this could affect their patients. Decreases in opioid prescribing were already occurring prior to the law implementation. Disciplinary actions against opioid prescribers resulted in prescriber fear, which was then exacerbated by SB 273 and contributed to shifts in care that led to forced tapering and opioid under-prescribing. Providers felt that taking on patients who legitimately required opioids could jeopardize their career.

Conclusion

A holistic and patient-centered approach should be taken by legislative and disciplinary bodies to ensure patients are not abandoned when disciplinary actions are taken against prescribers or new legislation is passed.

Synthetic control methodology as a tool for evaluating population-level health interventions

BACKGROUND

Many public health interventions cannot be evaluated using randomised controlled trials so they rely on the assessment of observational data. Techniques for evaluating public health interventions using observational data include interrupted time series analysis, panel data regression-based approaches, regression discontinuity and instrumental variable approaches. The inclusion of a counterfactual improves causal inference for approaches based on time series analysis, but the selection of a suitable counterfactual or control area can be problematic. The synthetic control method builds a counterfactual using a weighted combination of potential control units.

METHODS

We explain the synthetic control method, summarise its use in health research to date, set out its advantages, assumptions and limitations and describe its implementation through a case study of life expectancy following German reunification.

RESULTS

Advantages of the synthetic control method are that it offers an approach suitable when there is a small number of treated units and control units and it does not rely on parallel preimplementation trends like difference in difference methods. The credibility of the result relies on achieving a good preimplementation fit for the outcome of interest between treated unit and synthetic control. If a good preimplementation fit is established over an extended period of time, a discrepancy in the outcome variable following the intervention can be interpreted as an intervention effect. It is critical that the synthetic control is built from a pool of potential controls that are similar to the treated unit. There is currently no consensus on what constitutes a 'good fit' or how to judge similarity. Traditional statistical inference is not appropriate with this approach, although alternatives are available. From our review, we noted that the synthetic control method has been underused in public health.

CONCLUSIONS

Synthetic control methods are a valuable addition to the range of approaches for evaluating public health interventions when randomisation is impractical. They deserve to be more widely applied, ideally in combination with other methods so that the dependence of findings on particular assumptions can be assessed.