Big tobacco, E-cigarettes, and a road to the smoking endgame

The failure of the UK to tax adequately tobacco company profits

BACKGROUND

A key driver of the global tobacco epidemic is the massive profit earned from manufacturing tobacco products despite high levels of product taxation. Two of the four major Transnational Tobacco companies are based in the UK, where there is growing evidence of corporate tax avoidance by transnational firms and where there are calls for the industry to pay more towards the harms caused by tobacco products.

OBJECTIVES/METHODS

UK tobacco company profit and corporation tax data between 2009 and 2016 is obtained from publically available sources. The intention is not to perform a piece of forensic accounting but to establish the broad pattern of profit and taxation in order to inform consideration of tobacco product and firm taxation, and hence public health.

RESULTS

Very little profit based taxation has been paid in the UK despite high levels of reported profits, both in the domestic market and globally.

CONCLUSIONS

The UK needs better reporting and corporate taxation standards. Tobacco companies should be made to pay more profit based taxation, such as by extending the surcharge on corporation tax currently paid by UK banks, and by making sure companies pay appropriate taxes when reorganizing corporate structures.

Transnational tobacco companies and the mechanism of externalization: A realist synthesis

Externalization theory assumes that risks and costs are systematically displaced from high-income countries (HICs) to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We review how and why transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) influence the local circumstances of LMICs that trigger externalization mechanisms, leading to tobacco-attributable risk outcomes. Our realist synthesis of scientific evidence and gray literature identifies externalization mechanisms with risk outcomes at the level of health policy, smoking trends, and tobacco production. The results reveal the mediating role of local and global third parties and intermediaries. Externalization mechanisms produce systematic tobacco-attributable inequalities between places located in HICs and those located in LMICs.

Helsinki by nature: The Nature Step to Respiratory Health

Background

The Nature Step to Respiratory Health was the overarching theme of the 12th General Meeting of the Global Alliance against Chronic Respiratory Diseases (GARD) in Helsinki, August 2018. New approaches are needed to improve respiratory health and reduce premature mortality of chronic diseases by 30% till 2030 (UN Sustainable Development Goals, SDGs). Planetary health is defined as the health of human civilization and the state of the natural systems on which it depends. Planetary health and human health are interconnected, and both need to be considered by individuals and governments while addressing several SDGs.

Results

The concept of the Nature Step has evolved from innovative research indicating, how changed lifestyle in urban surroundings reduces contact with biodiverse environments, impoverishes microbiota, affects immune regulation and increases risk of NCDs. The Nature Step calls for strengthening connections to nature. Physical activity in natural environments should be promoted, use of fresh vegetables, fruits and water increased, and consumption of sugary drinks, tobacco and alcohol restricted. Nature relatedness should be part of everyday life and especially emphasized in the care of children and the elderly. Taking “nature” to modern cities in a controlled way is possible but a challenge for urban planning, nature conservation, housing, traffic arrangements, energy production, and importantly for supplying and distributing food. Actions against the well-known respiratory risk factors, air pollution and smoking, should be taken simultaneously.

Conclusions

In Finland and elsewhere in Europe, successful programmes have been implemented to reduce the burden of respiratory disorders and other NCDs. Unhealthy behaviour can be changed by well-coordinated actions involving all stakeholders. The growing public health concern caused by NCDs in urban surroundings cannot be solved by health care alone; a multidisciplinary approach is mandatory.

A modeling approach to gauging the effects of nicotine vaping product use on cessation from cigarettes: what do we know, what do we need to know?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The long-term population health impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) use among smokers is unknown, and subject to a range of plausible assumptions about the use and health consequences of NVPs. While NVPs use may substitute for cigarette smoking and thereby aid in quitting cigarette use, it is also possible that smokers who would have otherwise quit would instead delay quitting cigarettes. We aimed to develop a cohort-specific simulation model of the impact of NVPs on smoking cessation by adult smokers and resulting premature deaths (PD) and life years lost (LYL).

DESIGN

A cohort-specific simulation model of the impact of NVPs on smoking cessation by adult smokers and resulting premature deaths (PD) and life years lost (LYL) was developed by gender for two birth cohorts, aged 30 and 50 years in 2012. Extensive sensitivity analyses were conducted.

SETTING

United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Smokers in two birth cohorts, aged 30 and 50 years in 2012.

MEASUREMENTS

Data were from the 1965-2012 National Health Interview Surveys and the 2014/15 Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey. The model incorporated a range of plausible assumptions from published literature about transition rates from regular smoking to exclusive NVP and dual use, from dual use to exclusive NVP use and from exclusive NVP use to no use.

FINDINGS

Compared with the no-NVP scenario, the male (female) model projected 17.8% (19.3%) fewer PDs and 22.9% (26.6%) fewer LYL for the 1982 cohort and 5.4% (7.3%) fewer PDs and 7.9% (11.4%) fewer LYL for the 1962 cohort. These gains were sensitive to NVP use over time, age of initial NVP use, transitions from smoking to dual, exclusive NVP and no use and relative NVP mortality risks.

CONCLUSIONS

Nicotine vaping product (NVP) use in the United States is projected to have a net positive impact on population health over a wide range of plausible levels of NVP use, transitions to dual, exclusive NVP and no use and NVP risks. However, net impact is sensitive to parameter estimates.

An Economic Analysis of the Pre-Deeming US Market for Nicotine Vaping Products

OBJECTIVES

Public health policies are often enacted without adequate consideration of the existing market structure or their impacts on that market structure. This paper provides context for the potential impact of regulations on nicotine vaping products (NVP) use by providing a structural analysis of competition in the US NVP market before FDA regulation.

METHODS

A literature review was conducted with the aim of providing a framework for analysis that: 1) defines the market; 2) evaluates market concentration; 3) identifies entry barriers; and 4) examines firm conduct.

RESULTS

The NVP market includes retail, internet sellers and vape shops. Although conventional retail became more concentrated after the major cigarette companies entered the NVP market, the vape shop and internet sectors remain substantially less concentrated, producing an overall low market concentration, with few entry barriers and competitive behavior.

CONCLUSIONS

The largely unregulated US NVP market has been highly competitive, with a high degree of innovation. However, new FDA deeming regulations as applied to NVPs could make it difficult for smaller companies to remain in the market and could discourage new companies and new product innovations from entering the market.

Hostage to fortune: an empirical study of the tobacco industry's business strategies since the advent of e-cigarettes

The tobacco market has been transformed by the arrival of e-cigarettes and array of alternative nicotine delivery systems (ANDS). Public health has struggled to cope with these changes and clear divisions are apparent, but less is known about the tobacco industry (TI) response. This first empirical study to examine TI and independent ANDS companies' business strategies fills this gap. Primary data were collected through 28 elite interviews with senior/influential TI and independent stakeholders, triangulated with a documentary analysis of company reports, investor analyses, market research, and consultation responses (1022 documents). A deliberately emic analysis shows that tobacco multinationals were initially disconcerted by ANDS, but logic provided by the fiduciary imperative is enabling them to turn a potential threat into profitable opportunities. Interviewees argue market changes played to their strengths: customer links, expertise in nicotine, and enormous financial resources. This enabled portfolio diversification in which combustible and ANDS coexist; providing potential to develop robust scientific and regulatory positions and hope of retrieving corporate reputations. The principal threat for major tobacco players comes from the independent sector, which is prepared and able to satisfy bespoke consumer needs. Multinationals by contrast need to turn ANDS into a genuinely mass-market product appealing to its global customers. They are making progress. Given the continued buoyancy of the combustibles market, they have extensive resources to continue their efforts. Disruptive innovations are not unique to tobacco control. Equivalent technological solutions - with concomitant business opportunities - are emerging in obesity and alcohol fields with implications for public health.

Potential deaths averted in USA by replacing cigarettes with e-cigarettes

Introduction

US tobacco control policies to reduce cigarette use have been effective, but their impact has been relatively slow. This study considers a strategy of switching cigarette smokers to e-cigarette use (‘vaping’) in the USA to accelerate tobacco control progress.

Methods

A Status Quo Scenario, developed to project smoking rates and health outcomes in the absence of vaping, is compared with Substitution models, whereby cigarette use is largely replaced by vaping over a 10-year period. We test an Optimistic and a Pessimistic Scenario, differing in terms of the relative harms of e-cigarettes compared with cigarettes and the impact on overall initiation, cessation and switching. Projected mortality outcomes by age and sex under the Status Quo and E-Cigarette Substitution Scenarios are compared from 2016 to 2100 to determine public health impacts.

Findings

Compared with the Status Quo, replacement of cigarette by e-cigarette use over a 10-year period yields 6.6 million fewer premature deaths with 86.7 million fewer life years lost in the Optimistic Scenario. Under the Pessimistic Scenario, 1.6 million premature deaths are averted with 20.8 million fewer life years lost. The largest gains are among younger cohorts, with a 0.5 gain in average life expectancy projected for the age 15 years cohort in 2016.

Conclusions

The tobacco control community has been divided regarding the role of e-cigarettes in tobacco control. Our projections show that a strategy of replacing cigarette smoking with vaping would yield substantial life year gains, even under pessimistic assumptions regarding cessation, initiation and relative harm.

Tobacco still a major killer-will we achieve the end game?

The game of tobacco use began in Europe in 1560 when the first tobacco seeds were sent from Lisbon to the king of France, by Jean Nicot. From kings' and nobles' exclusive use, it gradually and progressively became popular among the public, as a new player. Eighty-eight years ago (1929), Fritz Linkint, an extraordinary researcher in Germany, while reviewing existing evidence regarding a wide range of cancers potentially caused by smoking, indicated that smoking was a cause of respiratory disease. Despite the overwhelming accumulated evidence of the negative effects of nicotine intake, the prevalence of tobacco use is not expected to decline in the near future. What have we missed thus far in the game that claims more than seven million deaths annually worldwide? Although tobacco use is recognized as a major health problem, the persistent habit creates a dissonance between public health initiatives to reduce tobacco consumption and the choices citizens are making. To understand this dissonance, consideration first must be given to the social meaning attributed to smoking. Second, the political dissonance between health imperatives and social agendas is discussed with regard to relevant theory. Third, health promotion strategies can make a strong contribution to win the game from a negentropic perspective, that is to say, a public health vision that is structured towards an overarching goal.

Harm reduction and e-cigarettes: Distorting the approach

Some supporters of electronic cigarettes have argued that they should be considered a form of harm reduction, analogous to that which has been successful with narcotics. In this viewpoint, we contend that this argument is based on highly selective use of the evidence, coupled with a fundamental misunderstanding of a comprehensive harm minimisation strategy. This includes not only harm reduction but also reduction in demand and supply-two elements that are explicitly rejected by many advocates of electronic cigarettes. We contend that, in the absence of all three elements, there is a danger that electronic cigarettes will delay the achievement of a tobacco-free world.