Delivery dilemmas: How drug cryptomarket users identify and seek to reduce their risk of detection by law enforcement

Effective sanction avoidance in drug trafficking: The construction and validation of the restrictive deterrence utility scale using a sample of female drug offenders

Drug traffickers perform many crime strategies to avoid legal sanctions. The use of any crime strategy is mainly for reducing the risk of arrest, which has been the focus of research on restrictive deterrence. This study aims to develop a Restrictive Deterrence Utility Scale (RDUS) to measure the effectiveness of crime strategies used in drug trafficking. Survey data were collected from August to October 2021, including 294 female drug offenders aged between 21 and 61 years serving sentences with a median length of around 10 years in a Southern city in Mainland China. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis was conducted for scale investigation. Three valid and reliable factors for the RDUS were found: anomaly avoidance, reduction of exposure time, and the use of weapons and tools. Composite reliability, convergent validity, discriminant validity of three factors were confirmed with Cronbach α being higher than 0.9, that being higher than correspondent Average Variance Extracted which all being higher than 0.5 and higher than correspondent factor correlation. The RDUS offers a helpful method for assessing the motivation for drug traffickers to persist in drug crime and for formulating appropriate interventions for drug prohibition.

Hybrid drug dealing: Merging on- and offline spheres when dealing drugs via social media

BACKGROUND

Research exploring online mediated drug dealing has gained momentum in recent years. Much existing research is characterized by a primary focus on the "online" aspects of drug sales facilitated by social media, resulting in a divide between "on"- and "offline" drug dealing. We wish to bridge this gap, by focusing on the hybridity of dealing drugs via social media and by arguing for a more holistic understanding of contemporary drug dealing.

METHODS

This article is based on in-depth digitally facilitated oral interviews with 25 individuals with experience of dealing drugs via social media platforms and encrypted messaging apps and on observational data from different apps and platforms.

RESULTS

We found that many sellers start by dealing offline and gradually drift into sales using social media technology. While the internet offers drug sellers new opportunities to expand their business, many sellers are not technological exclusionists but rather adopt a multichannel approach where they sell both via social media and occasionally or regularly also through in-person and technologically analogue means. Additionally, many sellers do not draw clear cut distinctions between whether they use social media, SMS or encrypted apps, but rather see their "drug sales phone" as one medium for all sales related communication. Findings also show that local offline power dynamics continue to influence sellers' ability to build and expand their online business, and that offline as well as online networks play a crucial role in sellers' hiring of helpers and in their bulk drug sourcing.

CONCLUSION

We discuss how our findings have analytical, conceptual, and methodological implications for the development of a more nuanced and holistic approach in the study of drug sales involving online technologies.

Social influence in the darknet market: The impact of product descriptions on cocaine sales

BACKGROUND

The rise of the darknet market, supported by technologies such as the Tor Browser and cryptocurrencies, has created a secure environment in which illicit transactions can occur. However, due to the lack of government oversight in this hidden online domain, darknet markets face significant challenges in upholding social order. Hence, this study explores the social dynamics that promote social order in a darknet market, focusing on the impact of item descriptions on sales. In particular, the study examines how text contained in product listings can influence sales and contribute to social order.

METHOD

To conduct this analysis, we examined 4160 cocaine listings on AlphaBay, which was active from December 2014 to July 2017 and is one of the largest darknet markets in history. Using generalised additive models (GAMs), we assessed the impact of various listing description features, including content and semantic structure, on cocaine sales.

RESULTS

The results showed that sales increased by 61.6 % when listings included delivery information in their description, compared to offers that did not. In addition, the standardised sentiment score (ranging 0,1) of the product description increased positively, and estimated sales increased by 260.5 %. We also found that international shipping reduced sales by 28.3 %. Finally, we found that listings stating the product origin increased sales for all continents except Asia.

CONCLUSION

The study sheds light on the characteristics of product advertising that facilitate social order within a darknet market. Listings that include delivery details in the description reduce uncertainty about a critical stage of the transaction process while using positive language increases trust. This study makes both an empirical and a theoretical contribution by demonstrating the influence of ad descriptions on sales and the intricate role of social influences in shaping market order.

Drug transactions and the dark web: Public perceptions of the locational setting of offenders and support for drug policy outcomes

BACKGROUND

Both legal and extra-legal factors influence judicial and non-judicial opinions about persons who use drugs. Yet, how the locational setting of drug transactions influences public perceptions of drug control policies remains understudied. In particular, the public's view of drug exchanges on the dark web could directly and indirectly influence drug policy, legal decision making, and spending decisions. The study's aim is to identify whether the location of a drug exchange, specifically the dark web, influences public preferences for drug policy and police resourcing.

METHODS

A sample (n = 1359) from the United States of America was recruited and participated in a discrete choice experiment. The participants compared and repeatedly chose across five iterations between two drug offender profiles with nine set features, such as the location of drug transactions, all with randomized levels. The resulting sample included a total of 13,590 contest pairs.

RESULTS

Averaging over the non-locational attributes, respondents indicated that, compared to the dark web, several locational settings for drug exchange (such as the street corner, social media, and an unknown location) needed fewer police resources and offenders were less deserving of longer punishments. No statistically significant difference was found for opinions about harm to communities, and offenders involved in drug exchanges on university campuses were considered more deserving of a substance abuse treatment program than offenders on the dark web.

CONCLUSION

There appears to be a preference for more punitive criminal justice policies for drug transactions occurring on the dark web relative to some other common settings. Such preferences may indicate a novelty effect driven by negative sentiment surrounding the dark web or a perceived deficit in the police's ability to deal with drug crimes on the dark web. These findings suggest that the public may prefer supply-side policing efforts over demand-side policies, which emphasizes harm reduction.

Ranking Trust Factors Affecting Risk Perception in Illicit Drug Purchase on the Darknet: A Large-Scale Survey Study in Hungary

The process of illicit drug trafficking on darknet markets is highly affected by various trust factors. Although the factors potentially affecting customers' risk perception can be identified based on previous research, cyber criminology has not produced empirical research ranking the importance of the specific factors. This study was designed to fill this gap by developing a tool that measures the importance of the various trust factors. To test out the measurement tool, a large-scale survey with projective situational questions was conducted among university students in Hungary. The sample (n = 5481) was compiled to include potential darknet market customers, respondents with above-average computer skills needed to access the darknet, and taking into account that university students are a group of society particularly exposed to drug consumption. The end product of this research is a trust matrix ranking the factors affecting illicit drug purchases on darknet markets. Among the factors, the survey's target group ranked reliable and undamaged delivery of goods and the reliability of vendors as the most important. The measurement tool developed in this research will facilitate further criminological research on vendor reputation. Its findings also point to the need for further research on delivery providers and predict that influencing the delivery-related risk perception of potential customers could effectively reduce demand.

Changes in Online Illegal Drug Buying during COVID-19: Assessing Effects due to a Changing Market or Changes in Strain using a Longitudinal Sample Design

This research uses longitudinal data to investigate if illegal online drug purchases changed over time during the COVID-19 pandemic, and if these changes were primarily driven by users adjusting to market conditions or by a heightened level of pandemic-induced strain that could drive a greater demand for drugs. Data were collected across four waves between fall 2019 and fall 2021 using an online survey. Data showed an increase in reported online drug purchases across the waves, but the online drug purchases remained consistent for the first year of the pandemic, but increased by approximately 44% between the fall 2020 and fall 2021 when over 13 percent of the sample admitted to buying illegal drugs online. Strain was also related to buying illegal drugs online as those respondents who made illegal online purchased had an average of 5.2 strain events in the past 12 months compared to only 2.4 events among those who did not report purchasing illegal drugs online. However, the influence of strain on online purchases remained consistent across time. These results suggest that the increase in online drug purchases was primarily driven by users adapting to changing market conditions rather than the cumulative strains associated with the pandemic producing a greater effect on purchases. Policy implications are also discussed.

Are Illicit Drugs a Driving Force for Cryptomarket Leadership?

Cryptomarkets, i.e., illicit online marketplaces, have gained considerable attention from the media, law enforcement agencies, and researchers. An increasing number of studies have revealed various aspects of these cryptomarkets; however, whether drugs play a major role for competing cryptomarkets to be the market leader, has not been addressed. Weekly sales and the number of listings for the major products on three leading cryptomarkets (Silk Road 2, Agora, and Evolution) were examined using Granger causality tests and interrupted time series analysis. Not only drugs trading on cryptomarkets played a pivotal role in the growth of each cryptomarket, but also a higher increase in drug supply than in competing marketplaces is crucial to become market leaders. The relative supply of drugs plays a larger role when leading marketplaces disappear. Law enforcement agencies should focus on monitoring marketplaces with a larger increase in drug supplies than on competing marketplaces.

Controlled Delivery of Illegal Drug Parcels in Scotland: Does Policing Practice Align With a Public Health Approach Focused on Drug-Related Harm?

An increase in the flow of drugs into the UK via international postal systems poses challenges for law enforcement. ‘Controlled delivery’ can be used to disrupt supply networks and secure intelligence for prosecution; however, critics argue that law enforcement should instead focus on reducing drug-related harm. In Scotland, national drugs strategy adopts a public health approach but it is unclear whether this extends to policing practice. Therefore, this paper examines whether controlled delivery of drug parcels aligns with a public health policing approach. We find evidence of alignment in terms of potential harm to individual users, particularly in relation to legal highs, but not in terms of drug-related harms within the communities to which parcels were destined. We argue that further investigation is required in order to assess the extent to which political intent and policing practice in Scotland align around the principles of harm reduction and public health.

Ordinary people, criminals, addicts and recreational users: Swedish court of law descriptions of persons sentenced for online drug purchases

Background: The aim of this study was to analyze how Swedish courts describe persons sentenced for purchasing illicit drugs online. Methods: Qualitative analysis of naturally occurring data through 201 sentences that included 248 individuals sentenced for having purchased drugs online between January 1 2010 and January 1 2020. Results: The analysis resulted in the construction of four ideal types regarding the described characteristics of the sentenced persons; the ordinary person, the recreational user, the addict and the criminal. The courts operate with a notable dichotomy between traditional drug markets and online drug markets, that can be understood in relation to descriptions of Bourdieusian capital forms, specifically street capital and digital capital. Conclusion: Descriptions relating to street capital were of larger interest to the courts compared to digital capital, although there were examples of when the courts argued that uses of digital capital should be viewed as an aggravating circumstance. The courts largely held a dichotomous view of online and offline drug markets that focus on street-based criminality, which may have implications for how emerging digital drug markets are responded to by drug law enforcement and judicial systems.

Pressure-Sensitive Adhesive Combined with Paper Spray Mass Spectrometry for Low-Cost Collection and Analysis of Drug Residues

Illicit drug use causes over half a million deaths worldwide every year. Drugs of abuse are commonly smuggled through customs and border checkpoints and, increasingly, through parcel delivery services. Improved methods for detection of trace drug residues from surfaces are needed. Such methods should be robust, fieldable, sensitive, and capable of detecting a wide range of drugs. In this work, commercially produced paper with a pressure-sensitive adhesive coating was utilized for the collection and analysis of trace drug residues by paper spray mass spectrometry (MS). This modified substrate was used to combine sample collection of drug residues from surfaces with rapid detection using a single paper spray ticket. The all-in-one ticket was used to probe different surfaces commonly encountered in forensic work including clothing, cardboard, glass, concrete, asphalt, and aluminum. A total of 10 drugs (acetyl fentanyl, fentanyl, clonazolam, cocaine, heroin, ketamine, methamphetamine, methylone, U-47700, and XLR-11) were evaluated and found to be detectable in the picogram range using a benchtop mass spectrometer and in the low nanogram range using a portable ion trap MS. The novel approach demonstrates a simple yet effective sampling strategy, allowing for rapid identification from difficult surfaces via paper spray mass spectrometry.

The convergence of social media and other communication technologies in the promotion of illicit and controlled drugs

Some social media platforms have strict regulations regarding the promotion of illicit and controlled drug on their sites. This study attempts to examine whether social media outlets like Twitter, Flickr and Tumblr have implemented practical measures to stop the active promotion of such drugs. We examined over 2.6 million social media posts taken from these three platforms. By focusing on keyword searches around mobile apps and communication means, we found evidence of ongoing opioid drug promotion, especially on Twitter followed by Flickr and Tumblr; we discuss our approach which effectively identifies posts related to the promotion of opioids and controlled drugs.

Relevance of cryptomarkets, characteristics of purchasers and possibilities for survey research: experience from the European Web Survey on Drugs

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to assess the relevance of cryptomarkets, characteristics of purchasers and possibilities for survey research by approaching users directly on cryptomarkets.

Design/methodology/approach

Cross-country comparison of the results from the European Web Survey on Drugs (EWSD) and summarizing lessons learned during the data collection was carried out.

Findings

Purchasers of drugs on cryptomarkets are still a rather small segment of all drug purchasers, and most people who use cryptomarkets also use other sources of supply to buy drugs. The percentage of people using cryptomarkets is unevenly distributed across countries and substances. Purchasers on cryptomarkets in most countries are more likely to be men and more likely, on average, to use more substances. Other characteristics such as age or place of residence do not show a consistent pattern across countries. Recruitment of respondents on cryptomarkets calls for specific techniques and procedures. Specific attention should be paid to build trust and guarantee credibility and anonymity.

Research limitations/implications

Interpretation of the quantitative results is limited by nonprobabilistic sampling and different recruitment strategies in different countries.

Practical implications

Users of cryptomarkets show some specific characteristics, providing a challenge for research and prevention agencies to keep up with digital technology. Increasing knowledge about characteristics of users of cryptomarkets may help to create adequate responses for harm reduction measures in different supply settings. However, collecting self-reported data from users on cryptomarkets is limited owing to significant privacy concerns and requires specific skills and strategies.

Originality/value

The EWSD provides a rare opportunity for detailed analyses of consumption patterns and characteristics of active drug users across several European countries. Furthermore, experiences of a new recruitment strategy are discussed.

Illicit drug prices and quantity discounts: A comparison between a cryptomarket, social media, and police data

BACKGROUND

Illicit drugs are increasingly sold on cryptomarkets and on social media. Buyers and sellers perceive these online transactions as less risky than conventional street-level exchanges. Following the Risks & Prices framework, law enforcement is the largest cost component of illicit drug distribution. We examine whether prices on cryptomarkets are lower than prices on social media and prices reported by law enforcement on primarily offline markets.

METHODS

Data consists of online advertisements for illicit drugs in Sweden in 2018, scraped from the cryptomarket Flugsvamp 2.0 (n = 826) and collected with digital ethnography on Facebook (n = 446). Observations are advertisements for herbal cannabis (n = 421), cannabis resin, hash (n = 594), and cocaine (n = 257) from 156 sellers. Prices are compared with estimates from Swedish police districts (n = 53). Three multilevel linear regression models are estimated, one for each drug type, comparing price levels and discount elasticities for each platform and between sellers on each platform.

RESULTS

Price levels are similar on the two online platforms, but cocaine is slightly more expensive on social media. There are quantity discounts for all three drug types on both platforms with coefficients between -0.10 and -0.21. Despite the higher competition between sellers on cryptomarkets, prices are not lower compared to social media. Online price levels for hash and cocaine are similar to those reported by police at the 1 g level.

CONCLUSION

Mean prices and quantity discounts are similar in the two online markets. This provides support for the notion that research on cryptomarkets can also inform drug market analysis in a broader sense. Online advertisements for drugs constitute a new detailed transaction-level data source for supply-side price information for research.

Social Capital and Social Networks of Hidden Drug Abuse in Hong Kong

Owing to the increasing prevalence of hidden drug abuse in Hong Kong, yet scarce relevant current local research, this study seeks to carry out an in-depth investigation into the experience of hidden drug abusers, paying particular attention to their relevance to social capital and social networks. Seventy-three abusers attending drug treatment programs were interviewed, and a thematic analysis was performed. The results indicate hidden drug abuse is popular in Hong Kong. Apart from the decline of public, large-scale discos and the change of the types of drugs abused to date, one important contributing factor is the drug supply and transaction networks, which are extensive and multilocused, but secretive, with high closure levels. This kind of network is supported by bonding, bridging, and linking social capital as well as by providing convenient supply modes and offering drug abusers psychological comfort and safety. These factors encourage the hidden drug abuse to prevail and allow drug abusers to remain unidentifiable.

Pricing of illicit drugs on darknet markets: a conceptual exploration

Purpose

Trading illicit drugs on cryptomarkets differs in many ways from material retail markets. This paper aims to contribute to existing studies on pricing by studying the relationship between price changes in relation to changes in nominal value of the cryptocurrency. To this, the authors qualitatively study product descriptions and images to expand the knowledge on price formation.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors analysed 15 samples based on visual and textual scrapes from two major drug markets – for Dream Market between January 2014 and July 2015 and for Tochka between January 2015 and July 2015. This longitudinal study relates changes in process to variations in the Bitcoin exchange rate and selling strategies. The analysis of the marketing of drugs online also addressed the development of the vendor profile and product offers.

Findings

Product prices change in relation to variations in the Bitcoin exchange rate. This points to the application of mechanisms for automatic price adaptations on the market level. Real prices of the drug offers constantly increase. The authors assert that there is a bidirectional relationship. Vendors structure price and discounts to encourage feedback. And feedback in combination with signals of commitment and authenticity inform pricing. Product descriptions are an important feature in the successful marketization of goods, whereas product images are predominantly used as an aspect of recognisability and feature of the vendor’s identity.

Research limitations/implications

Findings suggest that there is great potential for further qualitative research into the relationship between the online and offline identity of drug vendors, as well as price setting when entering the market and subsequent changes for offered products.

Practical implications

Findings also suggest that further investigation into the constitution and management of vendor’s identity on the cryptomarkets would allow a better understanding of vendors and their interactions on cryptomarkets.

Social implications

A better understanding of drug trading on cryptomarkets helps to more effectively address potentials for harm in the online drug trade. Also targetting crime would benefit from a better understanding of vendor idenities and pricing.

Originality/value

The findings represent a valuable contribution to existing knowledge on drug trading on cryptomarkets, particularly in view of pricing and vending strategies.

An evidence synthesis of strategies, enablers and barriers for keeping secrets online regarding the procurement and supply of illicit drugs

This systematic review attempts to understand how people keep secrets online, and in particular how people use the internet when engaging in covert behaviours and activities regarding the procurement and supply of illicit drugs. With the Internet and social media being part of everyday life for most people in western and non-western countries, there are ever-growing opportunities for individuals to engage in covert behaviours and activities online that may be considered illegal or unethical. A search strategy using Medical Subject Headings terms and relevant key words was developed. A comprehensive literature search of published and unpublished studies in electronic databases was conducted. Additional studies were identified from reference lists of previous studies and (systematic) reviews that had similar objectives as this search, and were included if they fulfilled our inclusion criteria. Two researchers independently screened abstracts and full-texts for study eligibility and evaluated the quality of included studies. Disagreements were resolved by a consensus procedure. The systematic review includes 33 qualitative studies and one cross-sectional study, published between 2006 and 2018. Five covert behaviours were identified: the use of communication channels; anonymity; visibility reduction; limited posts in public; following forum rules and recommendations. The same technologies that provide individuals with easy access to information, such as social networking sites and forums, digital devices, digital tools and services, also increase the prevalence of inaccurate information, loss of privacy, identity theft and disinhibited communication. This review takes a rigorous interdisciplinary approach to synthesising knowledge on the strategies adopted by people in keeping secrets online. Whilst the focus is on the procurement and supply of illicit drugs, this knowledge is transferrable to a range of contexts where people keep secrets online. It has particular significance for those who design online/social media applications, and for law enforcement and security agencies.

Sellers' risk perceptions in public and private social media drug markets

INTRODUCTION

From the early use of pagers and cellular phones to the darknet and smartphones, technological developments have facilitated drug deals in various ways, especially by altering time and space boundaries. Traditional drug market literature theorises about how physical markets, within which sellers act according to their risk perceptions and motivation, are led by supply, demand, and enforcement. However, there is an almost absolute research gap in understanding how this relates to digital markets and social media markets in particular. It is expected that the plasticity of technology makes digital markets highly mouldable so that the sellers are able to shape markets according to their use.

RESEARCH AIM

The aim of the study is to describe and understand drug dealing on social media within the structure of existing markets. We aim to do so by analysing how drug sellers' risk perceptions and motivations form and are formed by social media technology.

METHODS

We conducted a three-month digital ethnographic study on Facebook and Instagram in the five Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden), as well as 107 semi-structured qualitative interviews with sellers (2/3 of the sample) and buyers (1/3 of the sample) using online markets within the same countries.

RESULTS

Drug dealing on social media varies according to the structure of the chosen media and users' risk perceptions and motivations. Two market forms are suggested: 1) public digital markets (e.g., Facebook groups and Instagram) allow sellers to expand their customer lists, but the risk is quite high, while 2) private digital markets are based on one-on-one communication and demand greater knowledge but are perceived as more secure. Sellers choose which media to use and how to use them based on perceived risk and, therefore, have a significant impact on the formation of social media drug markets.

The value of unsolicited online data in drug policy research

We alert readers to the value of using unsolicited online data in drug policy research by highlighting web-based content relevant to drug policy generated by distinct types of actor: people who consume, supply or produce illicit drugs, online news websites and state or civil society organisations. These actors leave 'digital traces' across a range of internet platforms, and these traces become available to researchers to use as data - although they have not been solicited by researchers, and so have not been created specifically to fulfil the aims of research projects. This particular type of data entails certain strengths, limitations and ethical challenges, and we aim to assist researchers in understanding these by drawing on selected examples of published research using unsolicited online data that have generated valuable drug policy insights not possible using other traditional data sources. We argue for the continued and increased importance of using unsolicited online data so that drug policy scholarship keep pace with recent developments in the global landscape of drug policies and illicit drug practices.

Crime displacement in digital drug markets

Background Crackdowns on urban sites with concentrated criminal activity are sometimes followed by geographical relocation of crime. Is this also the case in cyberspace, where illegal websites and online networks can be wiped clean, but also quickly rebuilt and replaced on new servers and URLs? Methods I address this question in three steps. First, I measure MDMA trade in a large digital market for drugs, before and after the arrest of a leading MDMA seller in the same market. Second, I count the number of available digital drug markets and vendor shops in the period February 2014-June 2018, to see if websites closed by police were replaced by new ones. Third, I track the digital movement and trading activities of individual drug sellers, before and after law enforcement shut down two large markets. Results After police arrested a leading MDMA seller, other MDMA sellers filled most - but not all - of the gap. A major law enforcement crackdown reduced the number of available markets, but new ones were created, and market counts eventually surpassed the previous peak. When law enforcement shut down two big markets, many of the sellers relocated to other e-commerce sites and continued high-earning operations there. Conclusion Arrests and market closures redirect digital drug trade to other sellers and markets. Hot spot policing in cyberspace might produce temporary results, but is arguably ineffective in the long run, as actors use information and communication technology's unique capacities to reorganize.

This place is like the jungle: discussions about psychoactive substances on a cryptomarket

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyse dynamics amongst members to better understand in what terms and to what extent marketplace forums can be seen as new forms of harm reduction.

Design/methodology/approach

This is a qualitative analysis focused on conversations about psychoactive substances on the forum community of AlphaBay Market. A sample consists of 100 online threads. The data, collected in July 2016, were analysed by applying the grounded theory approach with the support of Atlas.ti.

Findings

Conversations in the marketplace forum focus mostly on the purchase. Concerns and disputes are voiced in a significant proportion of them, and interactions are affected by a climate of distrust where stigmatisation processes can emerge between users of different drug categories. This casts a certain amount of doubt on the thesis that marketplace forums – like online forums – are new forms of harm reduction and peer-led communities.

Research limitations/implications

The study focuses on only one marketplace forum. Other such forums should be analysed to corroborate its findings.

Practical implications

Harm reduction interventions in the online environment should take different form according to the forum type, and take the differences and boundaries that separate users of different substances into account.

Originality/value

Thanks to its infrequently used qualitative approach, the study provides a more thorough understanding of the relationships on marketplace forums.

Will growth in cryptomarket drug buying increase the harms of illicit drugs?

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Cryptomarkets-on-line, anonymous market-places for illicit goods and services that specialize mainly in drugs-account for a small but rapidly growing share of the illicit drug market in many countries. Policy responses so far are based generally on the assumption that their rise will only increase drug harms. In this contribution for debate, we question this assumption.

METHODS

We provide a narrative review of the emerging literature connected to drug cryptomarkets. We use MacCoun & Reuter's formula to understand the effect of population-level increases in use on total harm as depending on the level of harm associated with each unit of use. We then consider the potential for cryptomarkets to increase or decrease the harms and benefits related to each unit of drug use, with specific attention to the quality of drugs sold and the non-drug-related harms and benefits for customers.

RESULTS

It is likely that cryptomarkets will increase both the amount and the range of substances that are sold. However, we argue that the effects on harms will depend upon whether cryptomarkets also increase the quality and safety of products that are sold, provide harm-reducing information to consumers and reduce transactional conflict involved in drug purchasing.

CONCLUSIONS

There is an emerging and rapidly growing evidence base connected to the macro and micro harms and benefits of cryptomarkets for drug users. Future researchers should use appropriately matched comparative designs to establish more firmly the differential harms and benefits of sourcing drugs both on- and off-line. While it is unlikely that the on-line drug trade can be eradicated completely, cryptomarkets will respond to regulation and enforcement in ways that have complex, and sometimes unanticipated, effects on both harms and benefits.

Offline constraints in online drug marketplaces: An exploratory analysis of a cryptomarket trade network

BACKGROUND

Cryptomarkets, or illegal anonymizing online platforms that facilitate drug trade, have been analyzed in a rapidly growing body of research. Previous research has found that, despite increased risks, cryptomarket sellers are often willing to ship illegal drugs internationally. There is little to no information, however, about the extent to which uncertainty and risk related to geographic constraints shapes buyers' behavior and, in turn, the structure of the global online drug trade network. In this paper, we analyze the structure of a complete cryptomarket trade network with a focus on the role of geographic clustering of buyers and sellers.

METHODS

We use publicly available crawls of the cryptomarket Abraxas, encompassing market transactions between 463 sellers and 3542 buyers of drugs in 2015. We use descriptive social network analysis and Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM) to analyze the structure of the trade network.

RESULTS

The structure of the online drug trade network is primarily shaped by geographical boundaries. Buyers are more likely to buy from multiple sellers within a single country, and avoid buying from sellers in different countries, which leads to strong geographic clustering. The effect is especially strong between continents and weaker for countries within Europe. A small fraction of buyers (10%) account for more than a half of all drug purchases, while most buyers only buy once.

CONCLUSION

Online drug trade networks might still be heavily shaped by offline (geographic) constraints, despite their ability to provide access for end-users to large international supply. Cryptomarkets might be more "localized" and less international than thought before. We discuss potential explanations for such geographical clustering and implications of the findings.

An island apart? Risks and prices in the Australian cryptomarket drug trade

BACKGROUND

Australia has a reputation as an anomaly with regard to cryptomarket drug trading, with seemingly disproportionately high levels of activity given its relatively small size, high prices and anecdotal accounts of it being a destination where many foreign-based vendors will not sell. This paper aims to investigate these claims from a risk and prices perspective.

METHODS

By analysing data for over 60,000 drug products available for purchase from eight cryptomarkets in January 2016 this work builds a descriptive picture of the Australian online market in comparison to the rest of the world, before moving onto analyse the prices of drugs available to Australian consumers, both online and though conventional drug supply routes.

RESULTS

Results show that the Australian online illicit drugs market is of considerable size, internally isolated and with methamphetamine sales being particularly large by comparison to other countries. Australian cryptomarket vendors sell drugs at significantly higher prices than those listed by their foreign counterparts. Online prices are however broadly comparable to street prices, with the exception of methamphetamine where prices appear to be much lower online.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings indicate that the perceived stringency of Australian border protection inadvertently increases the competitiveness and local market share of domestic cryptomarket vendors via a consumer side 'risk tariff', challenging the traditionally vendor-oriented drugs risk and prices framework.