Uncertainty and risk: A framework for understanding pricing in online drug markets

A Preliminary Inventory of Kratom (Mitragyna Speciosa) Products and Vendors on the Darknet and Cryptomarkets

In recent years, the online sale of kratom (Mitragyna speciosa), a Southeast Asian plant with both medicinal and psychoactive properties, has raised health concerns mainly due to the uncontrolled diffusion of adulterated kratom-related products. This exploratory study provides, for the first time, a snapshot of the availability of kratom products on the darknet which has been further validated by data searches on the surface web. A total of 231 listings of kratom across 23 darknet marketplaces were identified between March 2020 and October 2021. Among these, 40 were found actively sold across five markets by thirteen vendors. Listed items were mainly advertised as "safe" substitutes for medicinal products for the self-management of pain and other health conditions and offered in various forms (e.g., dry leaf powder, pills, capsules). Purchases were made using cryptocurrencies, with some vendors offering Pretty Good Privacy, and were shipped from Europe, Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Goods sold by the same sellers also included illicit drugs and fraud-related products. Our study discovered a previously unknown diffusion of kratom products on the darknet mainly for self-treating a variety of medical conditions, suggesting the need for further research and immediate interventions to safeguard the well-being and health of kratom consumers.

Social influence in the darknet market: The impact of product descriptions on cocaine sales

BACKGROUND

The rise of the darknet market, supported by technologies such as the Tor Browser and cryptocurrencies, has created a secure environment in which illicit transactions can occur. However, due to the lack of government oversight in this hidden online domain, darknet markets face significant challenges in upholding social order. Hence, this study explores the social dynamics that promote social order in a darknet market, focusing on the impact of item descriptions on sales. In particular, the study examines how text contained in product listings can influence sales and contribute to social order.

METHOD

To conduct this analysis, we examined 4160 cocaine listings on AlphaBay, which was active from December 2014 to July 2017 and is one of the largest darknet markets in history. Using generalised additive models (GAMs), we assessed the impact of various listing description features, including content and semantic structure, on cocaine sales.

RESULTS

The results showed that sales increased by 61.6 % when listings included delivery information in their description, compared to offers that did not. In addition, the standardised sentiment score (ranging 0,1) of the product description increased positively, and estimated sales increased by 260.5 %. We also found that international shipping reduced sales by 28.3 %. Finally, we found that listings stating the product origin increased sales for all continents except Asia.

CONCLUSION

The study sheds light on the characteristics of product advertising that facilitate social order within a darknet market. Listings that include delivery details in the description reduce uncertainty about a critical stage of the transaction process while using positive language increases trust. This study makes both an empirical and a theoretical contribution by demonstrating the influence of ad descriptions on sales and the intricate role of social influences in shaping market order.

Ranking Trust Factors Affecting Risk Perception in Illicit Drug Purchase on the Darknet: A Large-Scale Survey Study in Hungary

The process of illicit drug trafficking on darknet markets is highly affected by various trust factors. Although the factors potentially affecting customers' risk perception can be identified based on previous research, cyber criminology has not produced empirical research ranking the importance of the specific factors. This study was designed to fill this gap by developing a tool that measures the importance of the various trust factors. To test out the measurement tool, a large-scale survey with projective situational questions was conducted among university students in Hungary. The sample (n = 5481) was compiled to include potential darknet market customers, respondents with above-average computer skills needed to access the darknet, and taking into account that university students are a group of society particularly exposed to drug consumption. The end product of this research is a trust matrix ranking the factors affecting illicit drug purchases on darknet markets. Among the factors, the survey's target group ranked reliable and undamaged delivery of goods and the reliability of vendors as the most important. The measurement tool developed in this research will facilitate further criminological research on vendor reputation. Its findings also point to the need for further research on delivery providers and predict that influencing the delivery-related risk perception of potential customers could effectively reduce demand.

Indicators From China's Listed Corporations on Corporate Financing Behavior and Policy-Related Risk

This study explores corporate financing behavior regarding the company and country-level factors and risks associated with policy-related regulations. The study considers all three categories of risk: geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, and political risk. In addition to this, we investigated how the links between diverse types of financing activities and the policy-related risks associated with them change depending on the type of financing strategy utilized (debt vs. equity). The study examined quarterly data from 2016Q1 to 2020Q3. EViews 12 is used for data analysis. Findings show financial restrictions, as well as inequities within the sector, have an impact on corporate investment while policy-related risks might impact a company's financing selections. Compared to equity financing, debt financing is more susceptible to policy-related risk. According to the available information, features at the company and nation levels also impact corporate finance choices. Finally, firms that have little financial resources are more susceptible to the adverse effects of policy-related risk than industrial companies are. Managers, as well as governments, should utilize these insights to design economic strategies that are more successful in the future.

Policy Uncertainty, Official Social Capital, and the Effective Corporate Tax Rate-Evidence From Chinese Firms

The political environment has a significant impact on the sustainable development of enterprises. This manuscript aims to investigate the effect of policy uncertainty and official social capital on enterprises' effective tax rate (ETR) due to the change of officials. Based on the panel data from the Chinese Industrial Enterprise Database from 1998 to 2009, it is shown that the policy uncertainty caused by the change of local government officials significantly increases the ETR of enterprises. Meanwhile, municipal officials who have social ties with provincial officials in their province also tend to raise the ETR of industrial enterprises, and this tendency is more evident when the officials take office. Further research shows that the effects vary in many aspects for policy uncertainty and social capital on the ETR of enterprises. The findings of this manuscript provide support for a deeper understanding of the change in local government fiscal policies and give suggestions to strengthen political environmental governance for the sustainable development of enterprises.