Prediction model of RSV-hospitalization in late preterm infants: An update and validation study

Maternal Risk Factors for Respiratory Syncytial Virus Lower Respiratory Tract Infection in Otherwise Healthy Preterm and Term Infants: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE

To date, there is no published, formal assessment of all maternal risk factors for respiratory syncytial virus lower respiratory tract infection (RSV-LRTI) in infants. A systematic literature review and meta-analysis were undertaken to ascertain: What maternal risk factors are associated with an increased risk of RSV-LRTI in infants?

METHODS

The systematic literature review used explicit methods to identify, select and analyze relevant data. PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library were searched (November 2022) using terms regarding: (1) RSV/LRTI; (2) risk factors; (3) pregnant/postpartum population. Bayesian meta-analysis compared RSV hospitalization (RSVH) risk in infants born to mothers with or without certain risk factors.

RESULTS

A total of 2353 citations were assessed and 20 were included in the final review (10 individual studies; 10 pooled analyses). In 10 studies examining infants (<1 year) without comorbidities (primary outcome), 10 maternal risk factors were associated with RSV-LRTI/RSVH in multivariate analyses. Meta-analysis revealed smoking while pregnant increased infant RSVH risk by 2.01 (95% credible interval: 1.52-2.64) times, while breast-feeding was protective (0.73, 95% credible interval: 0.58-0.90). Risk scoring tools have reported that maternal risk factors contribute between 9% and 21% of an infant's total risk score for RSVH.

CONCLUSIONS

A greater understanding of maternal risk factors and their relative contribution to infant RSV-LRTI will enable more accurate assessments of the impact of preventive strategies.

Multi-faceted analysis and prediction for the outbreak of pediatric respiratory syncytial virus

OBJECTIVES

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a significant cause of pediatric hospitalizations. This article aims to utilize multisource data and leverage the tensor methods to uncover distinct RSV geographic clusters and develop an accurate RSV prediction model for future seasons.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study utilizes 5-year RSV data from sources, including medical claims, CDC surveillance data, and Google search trends. We conduct spatiotemporal tensor analysis and prediction for pediatric RSV in the United States by designing (i) a nonnegative tensor factorization model for pediatric RSV diseases and location clustering; (ii) and a recurrent neural network tensor regression model for county-level trend prediction using the disease and location features.

RESULTS

We identify a clustering hierarchy of pediatric diseases: Three common geographic clusters of RSV outbreaks were identified from independent sources, showing an annual RSV trend shifting across different US regions, from the South and Southeast regions to the Central and Northeast regions and then to the West and Northwest regions, while precipitation and temperature were found as correlative factors with the coefficient of determination R2≈0.5, respectively. Our regression model accurately predicted the 2022-2023 RSV season at the county level, achieving R2≈0.3 mean absolute error MAE < 0.4 and a Pearson correlation greater than 0.75, which significantly outperforms the baselines with P-values <.05.

CONCLUSION

Our proposed framework provides a thorough analysis of RSV disease in the United States, which enables healthcare providers to better prepare for potential outbreaks, anticipate increased demand for services and supplies, and save more lives with timely interventions.

Daily intranasal palivizumab to prevent respiratory syncytial virus infection in healthy preterm infants: a phase 1/2b randomized placebo-controlled trial

Background

Mucosal administration of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against respiratory pathogens is a promising alternative for systemic administration because lower doses are required for protection. Clinical development of mucosal mAbs is a highly active field yet clinical proof-of-concept is lacking.

Methods

In this investigator-initiated, double-blind, randomized placebo-controlled trial, we evaluated intranasal palivizumab for the prevention of RSV infection in preterm infants (Dutch Trial Register NTR7378 and NTR7403). We randomized infants 1:1 to receive intranasal palivizumab (1 mg/mL) or placebo once daily during the RSV season. Any RSV infection was the primary outcome and RSV hospitalization was the key secondary outcome. The primary outcome was analyzed with a mixed effect logistic regression on the modified intention-to-treat population.

Findings

We recruited 268 infants between Jan 14, 2019 and Jan 28, 2021, after which the trial was stopped for futility following the planned interim analysis. Adverse events were similar in both groups (22/134 (16.4%) palivizumab arm versus 26/134 (19.4%) placebo arm). There were 6 dropouts and 168 infants were excluded from the efficacy analyses due to absent RSV circulation during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Any RSV infection was similar in infants in both groups (18/47 (38.3%) palivizumab arm versus 11/47 (23.4%) placebo arm; aOR 2.2, 95% CI 0.7-6.5).

Interpretation

Daily intranasal palivizumab did not prevent RSV infection in late preterm infants. Our findings have important implications for the clinical development of mucosal mAbs, namely the necessity of timely interim analyses and further research to understand mucosal antibody half-life.

Funding

Funded by the Department of Pediatrics, University Medical Centre Utrecht, the Netherlands.

Impact of breastfeeding on the incidence and severity of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated acute lower respiratory infections in infants: a systematic review highlighting the global relevance of primary prevention

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the principal cause of acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) among infants worldwide, and an important cause of morbidity, hospitalisation and mortality. While infants are universally exposed to RSV, most mortality occurs among normal term infants from low-income and middle-income countries. Breastfeeding has been suggested to have a protective effect against RSV infection. This study aims to determine the association of breastfeeding on the frequency and severity of RSV-associated ALRI among infants.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted using keywords and Medical Subject Headings on MEDLINE, PubMed, Google Scholar, EMBASE, MedRxiv and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Full-text articles published in English from 2000 to 2021 that studied exclusively or partially breastfed infants who developed RSV-associated ALRI <12 months of age were included. Covidence software-based evidence extraction and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Protocol guidelines were followed. Quality of evidence was analysed using UK National Service Framework grading and the risk-of-bias assessment using Robvis.

RESULTS

Among 1368 studies screened, 217 qualified full-text review and 198 were excluded based on pre-agreed criteria. Nineteen articles published from 12 countries that included 16 787 infants from 31 countries (of which 8 middle-income) were retained for analysis. Results indicate that non-breastfeeding practices pose a significant risk for severe RSV-associated ALRI and hospitalisation. Exclusive breastfeeding for >4-6 months significantly lowered hospitalisation, length of stay, supplemental oxygen demand and admission to intensive care units.

CONCLUSION

In the context of no effective or standardised treatment for established RSV-associated ALRI, available evidence suggest that breastfeeding is associated with lower frequency and severity of RSV-associated ALRI, based on observational studies of variable grades of evidence and risk-of-bias. With both exclusive and partial breastfeeding benefiting infants who develop RSV-associated ALRI, breastfeeding should be promoted globally as an adjunct primary prevention; in addition to emerging immunoprophylaxis and maternal immunisation strategies.

Comparison of the Canadian vs. the international risk scoring tool for respiratory syncytial virus prophylaxis in moderate-to-late preterm infants

AIM

The study objective was to compare the Pediatric Investigators Collaborative Network on Infections in Canada risk scoring tool (CRST) that determines need for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) prophylaxis in infants 33-35 weeks gestational age during the RSV season, with the newly developed international risk scoring tool (IRST).

METHODS

Children 33-35 weeks gestational age born during the 2018-2021 RSV seasons were prospectively identified following birth and scored with the validated CRST and IRST, that comprises seven and three variables respectively, into low- moderate- and high-risk groups that predict RSV-related hospitalization. Correlations between total scores on the two tools, and cut-off scores for the low-, moderate- and high-risk categories were conducted using the Spearman rank correlation.

RESULTS

Over a period of 3 RSV seasons, 556 infants were scored. Total risk scores on the CRST and the IRST were moderately correlated (r_s  = 0.64, p < 0.001). A significant relationship between the risk category rank on the CRST and the risk category rank on the IRST (r_s= 0.53; p < 0.001) was found. The proportion of infants categorized as moderate risk for RSV hospitalization by the CRST and IRST were 19.6% (n = 109) and 28.1% (n = 156), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The IRST may provide a time-efficient scoring alternative to the CRST with three vs. seven variables, and it selects a larger number of infants who are at moderate risk for RSV hospitalization for prophylaxis. A cost-utility analysis is necessary to justify country-specific use of the IRST, while in Canada a cost comparison is necessary between the IRST vs. the currently approved CRST prior to adoption.

Burden of illness in infants and young children hospitalized for respiratory syncytial virus: A rapid review

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections are common among young children and represent a significant burden to patients, their families and the Canadian health system. Here we conduct a rapid review of the burden of RSV illness in children 24 months of age or younger. Four databases (Medline, Embase, Cochrane Database of Clinical Trials, ClinicalTrials.gov from 2014 to 2018), grey literature and reference lists were reviewed for studies on the following: children with or without a risk factor, without prophylaxis and with lab-confirmed RSV infection. Of 29 studies identified, 10 provided within-study comparisons and few examined clinical conditions besides prematurity. For infants of 33-36 weeks gestation (wGA) versus term infants, there was low-to-moderate certainty evidence for an increase in RSV-hospitalizations (n=599,535 infants; RR 2.05 [95% CI 1.89-2.22]; 1.3 more per 100 [1.1-1.5 more]) and hospital length of stay (n=7,597 infants; mean difference 1.00 day [95% CI 0.88-1.12]). There was low-to-moderate certainty evidence of little-to-no difference for infants born at 29-32 versus 33-36 wGA for hospitalization (n=12,812 infants; RR 1.20 [95% CI 0.92-1.56]). There was low certainty evidence of increased mechanical ventilation for hospitalized infants born at 29-32 versus 33-35 wGA (n=212 infants; RR 1.58, 95% CI 0.94-2.65). Among infants born at 32-35 wGA, hospitalization for RSV in infancy may be associated with increased wheeze and asthma-medication use across six-year follow-up (RR range 1.3-1.7). Children with versus without Down syndrome may have increased hospital length of stay (n=7,206 children; mean difference 3.00 days, 95% CI 1.95-4.05; low certainty). Evidence for other within-study comparisons was of very low certainty. In summary, prematurity is associated with greater risk for RSV-hospitalization and longer hospital length of stay, and Down syndrome may be associated with longer hospital stay for RSV. Respiratory syncytial virus-hospitalization in infancy may be associated with greater wheeze and asthma-medication use in early childhood. Lack of a comparison group was a major limitation for many studies.

Estimated impact of maternal vaccination on global paediatric influenza-related in-hospital mortality: A retrospective case series

BACKGROUND

Influenza virus infection is an important cause of under-five mortality. Maternal vaccination protects children younger than 3 months of age from influenza infection. However, it is unknown to what extent paediatric influenza-related mortality may be prevented by a maternal vaccine since global age-stratified mortality data are lacking.

METHODS

We invited clinicians and researchers to share clinical and demographic characteristics from children younger than 5 years who died with laboratory-confirmed influenza infection between January 1, 1995 and March 31, 2020. We evaluated the potential impact of maternal vaccination by estimating the number of children younger than 3 months with in-hospital influenza-related death using published global mortality estimates.

FINDINGS

We included 314 children from 31 countries. Comorbidities were present in 166 (53%) children and 41 (13%) children were born prematurely. Median age at death was 8·6 (IQR 4·5-16·6), 11·5 (IQR 4·3-24·0), and 15·5 (IQR 7·4-27·0) months for children from low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs), upper-middle-income countries (UMICs), and high-income countries (HICs), respectively. The proportion of children younger than 3 months at time of death was 17% in LMICs, 12% in UMICs, and 7% in HICs. We estimated that 3339 annual influenza-related in-hospital deaths occur in the first 3 months of life globally.

INTERPRETATION

In our study, less than 20% of children is younger than 3 months at time of influenza-related death. Although maternal influenza vaccination may impact maternal and infant influenza disease burden, additional immunisation strategies are needed to prevent global influenza-related childhood mortality. The missing data, global coverage, and data quality in this study should be taken into consideration for further interpretation of the results.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

RSV hospitalization in infancy increases the risk of current wheeze at age 6 in late preterm born children without atopic predisposition

Severe respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection during infancy is associated with ongoing respiratory morbidity. In a large birth cohort of 2210 healthy preterm infants born at 32-35 weeks of gestation, we aimed to determine the role of atopy in the link between RSV hospitalization and current wheeze at age 6. We defined current wheeze as parent-reported wheeze or the use of respiratory medication in the past 12 months. Based on a positive family history of atopic disease, we distinguished between children with and without atopic predisposition. Six-year follow-up data was obtained in 997/1559 (64%) children of which 102 (10.2%) children had been hospitalized with RSV during infancy. Current wheeze was present in 184/997 (18.6%) children. RSV hospitalization was an independent risk factor for current wheeze in children without atopic predisposition (aOR 4.05 [95% CI 1.22-12.52]) but not in children with this atopic background (aOR 1.50 [95% CI 0.81-2.71]).Conclusion: This is the largest published birth cohort demonstrating that in late preterm infants, atopic predisposition defines the relationship between RSV hospitalization and current wheeze. Future RSV prevention trials aiming to prevent ongoing respiratory symptoms should be analyzed separately for atopic status. What is Known: • RSV infection is responsible for a significant burden of disease in young children worldwide. • Severe RSV infection in early life is associated with asthmatic symptoms later in life. What is New: • This is the largest published birth cohort reporting about the role of atopic predisposition in the link between severe RSV infection and current wheeze at school age. • We show that RSV hospitalization in infancy is an independent risk factor for current wheeze in late preterm children without atopic predisposition at age 6. This was not seen in children with atopic predisposition.

Risk scoring tool to predict respiratory syncytial virus hospitalisation in premature infants

BACKGROUND

The objective was to develop a risk scoring tool which predicts respiratory syncytial virus hospitalisation (RSVH) in moderate-late preterm infants (32-35 weeks' gestational age) in the Northern Hemisphere.

METHODS

Risk factors for RSVH were pooled from six observational studies of infants born 32 weeks and 0 days to 35 weeks and 6 days without comorbidity from 2000 to 2014. Of 13 475 infants, 484 had RSVH in the first year of life. Logistic regression was used to identify the most predictive risk factors, based on area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The model was validated internally by 100-fold bootstrapping and externally with data from a seventh observational study. The model coefficients were converted into rounded multipliers, stratified into risk groups, and number needed to treat (NNT) calculated.

RESULTS

The risk factors identified in the model included (i) proximity of birth to the RSV season; (ii) second-hand smoke exposure; and (iii) siblings and/or daycare. The AUROC was 0.773 (sensitivity: 68.9%; specificity: 73.0%). The mean AUROC from internal bootstrapping was 0.773. For external validation with data from Ireland, the AUROC was 0.707 using Irish coefficients and 0.681 using source model coefficients. Cut-off scores for RSVH were ≤19 for low- (1.0%), 20-45 for moderate- (3.3%), and 50-56 (9.5%) for high-risk infants. The high-risk group captured 62.0% of RSVHs within 23.6% of the total population (NNT 15.3).

CONCLUSIONS

This risk scoring tool has good predictive accuracy and can improve targeting for RSVH prevention in moderate-late preterm infants.

Cost-effectiveness of rule-based immunoprophylaxis against respiratory syncytial virus infections in preterm infants

The objective of the paper is to assess the cost-effectiveness of targeted respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) prophylaxis based on a validated prediction rule with 1-year time horizon in moderately preterm infants compared to no prophylaxis. Data on health care consumption were derived from a randomised clinical trial on wheeze reduction following RSV prophylaxis and a large birth cohort study on risk prediction of RSV hospitalisation. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of targeted RSV prophylaxis vs. no prophylaxis per quality-adjusted life year (QALYs) using a societal perspective, including medical and parental costs and effects. Costs and health outcomes were modelled in a decision tree analysis with sensitivity analyses. Targeted RSV prophylaxis in infants with a first-year RSV hospitalisation risk of > 10% resulted in a QALY gain of 0.02 (0.931 vs. 0.929) per patient against additional cost of €472 compared to no prophylaxis (ICER €214,748/QALY). The ICER falls below a threshold of €80,000 per QALY when RSV prophylaxis cost would be lowered from €928 (baseline) to €406 per unit. At a unit cost of €97, RSV prophylaxis would be cost saving.

CONCLUSIONS

Targeted RSV prophylaxis is not cost-effective in reducing RSV burden of disease in moderately preterm infants, but it can become cost-effective if lower priced biosimilar palivizumab or a vaccine would be available.

Defining the Risk and Associated Morbidity and Mortality of Severe Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection Among Preterm Infants Without Chronic Lung Disease or Congenital Heart Disease

INTRODUCTION

The REGAL (RSV Evidence-a Geographical Archive of the Literature) series provide a comprehensive review of the published evidence in the field of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in Western countries over the last 20 years. This second publication covers the risk and burden of RSV infection in preterm infants born at <37 weeks' gestational age (wGA) without chronic lung disease or congenital heart disease.

METHODS

A systematic review was undertaken for articles published between January 1, 1995 and December 31, 2015. Studies reporting data for hospital visits/admissions for RSV infection among preterm infants as well as studies reporting RSV-associated morbidity, mortality, and risk factors were included. Study quality and strength of evidence (SOE) were graded using recognized criteria.

RESULTS

2469 studies were identified of which 85 were included. Preterm infants, particularly those born at lower wGA, tended to have higher RSV hospitalization (RSVH) rates compared with otherwise healthy term infants (high SOE). RSVH rates ranged from ~5 per 1000 children to >100 per 1000 children with the highest rates shown in the lowest gestational age infants (high SOE). Independent risk factors associated with RSVH include: proximity of birth to the RSV season, living with school-age siblings, smoking of mother during pregnancy or infant exposure to environmental smoking, reduced breast feeding, male sex, and familial atopy (asthma) (high SOE). Predictive models can identify 32/33-35 wGA infants at risk of RSVH (high SOE).

CONCLUSION

RSV infection remains a major burden on Western healthcare systems and is associated with significant morbidity. Further studies focusing on the prevalence and burden of RSV in different gestational age cohorts, the changing risk of RSVH during the first year of life, and on RSV-related mortality in preterm infants are needed to determine the true burden of disease.

FUNDING

AbbVie.