Evaluation of protection by COVID-19 vaccines after deployment in low and lower-middle income countries

Primary Series and Booster Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccine Effectiveness in a Cohort of Healthcare Workers in Albania During a BA.1 and BA.2 Variant Period, January-May 2022

Background

Healthcare workers (HCWs) have experienced high rates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) morbidity and mortality. We estimated COVID-19 2-dose primary series and monovalent booster vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron (BA.1 and BA.2) infection among HCWs in 3 Albanian hospitals during January-May 2022.

Methods

Study participants completed weekly symptom questionnaires, underwent polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing when symptomatic, and provided quarterly blood samples for serology. We estimated VE using Cox regression models (1 - hazard ratio), with vaccination status as the time-varying exposure and unvaccinated HCWs as the reference group, adjusting for potential confounders: age, sex, prior SARS-CoV-2 infection (detected by PCR, rapid antigen test, or serology), and household size.

Results

At the start of the analysis period, 76% of 1462 HCWs had received a primary series, 10% had received a booster dose, and 9% were unvaccinated; 1307 (89%) HCWs had evidence of prior infection. Overall, 86% of primary series and 98% of booster doses received were BNT162b2. The median time interval from the second dose and the booster dose to the start of the analysis period was 289 (interquartile range [IQR], 210-292) days and 30 (IQR, 22-46) days, respectively. VE against symptomatic PCR-confirmed infection was 34% (95% confidence interval [CI], -36% to 68%) for the primary series and 88% (95% CI, 39%-98%) for the booster.

Conclusions

Among Albanian HCWs, most of whom had been previously infected, COVID-19 booster dose offered improved VE during a period of Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 circulation. Our findings support promoting booster dose uptake among Albanian HCWs, which, as of January 2023, was only 20%. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT04811391.

Assessing the Impact of Vaccination on the Dynamics of COVID-19 in Africa: A Mathematical Modeling Study

Several effective COVID-19 vaccines are administered to combat the COVID-19 pandemic globally. In most African countries, there is a comparatively limited deployment of vaccination programs. In this work, we develop a mathematical compartmental model to assess the impact of vaccination programs on curtailing the burden of COVID-19 in eight African countries considering SARS-CoV-2 cumulative case data for each country for the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model stratifies the total population into two subgroups based on individual vaccination status. We use the detection and death rates ratios between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals to quantify the vaccine's effectiveness in reducing new COVID-19 infections and death, respectively. Additionally, we perform a numerical sensitivity analysis to assess the combined impact of vaccination and reduction in the SARS-CoV-2 transmission due to control measures on the control reproduction number (Rc). Our results reveal that on average, at least 60% of the population in each considered African country should be vaccinated to curtail the pandemic (lower the Rc below one). Moreover, lower values of Rc are possible even when there is a low (10%) or moderate (30%) reduction in the SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate due to NPIs. Combining vaccination programs with various levels of reduction in the transmission rate due to NPI aids in curtailing the pandemic. Additionally, this study shows that vaccination significantly reduces the severity of the disease and death rates despite low efficacy against COVID-19 infections. The African governments need to design vaccination strategies that increase vaccine uptake, such as an incentive-based approach.

Measuring the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines Used during a Surge of the Delta Variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Bangladesh: A Test-Negative Design Evaluation

BACKGROUND

From May to December 2021, Bangladesh experienced a major surge in the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2. The earlier rollout of several vaccines offered the opportunity to evaluate vaccine effectiveness against this variant.

METHODS

A prospective, test-negative case-control study was conducted in five large hospitals in Dhaka between September and December 2021. The subjects were patients of at least 18 years of age who presented themselves for care, suffering COVID-like symptoms of less than 10 days' duration. The cases had PCR-confirmed infections with SARS-CoV-2, and up to 4 PCR test-negative controls were matched to each case, according to hospital, date of presentation, and age. Vaccine protection was assessed as being the association between the receipt of a complete course of vaccine and the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 disease, with symptoms beginning at least 14 days after the final vaccine dose.

RESULTS

In total, 313 cases were matched to 1196 controls. The genotyping of case isolates revealed 99.6% to be the Delta variant. Receipt of any vaccine was associated with 12% (95% CI: -21 to 37, p = 0.423) protection against all episodes of SARS-CoV-2. Among the three vaccines for which protection was evaluable (Moderna (mRNA-1273); Sinopharm (Vero Cell-Inactivated); Serum Institute of India (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19)), only the Moderna vaccine was associated with significant protection (64%; 95% CI: 10 to 86, p = 0.029). Protection by the receipt of any vaccine against severe disease was 85% (95% CI: 27 to 97, p = 0.019), with protection estimates of 75% to 100% for the three vaccines.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccine protection against COVID-19 disease of any severity caused by the Delta variant was modest in magnitude and significant for only one of the three evaluable vaccines. In contrast, protection against severe disease was high in magnitude and consistent for all three vaccines. Because our findings are not in complete accord with evaluations of the same vaccines in more affluent settings, our study underscores the need for country-level COVID-19 vaccine evaluations in developing countries.

Access to the COVID-19 Vaccine

As of 31 August 2022, 599,825,400 confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and 6,469,458 deaths have been reported globally [...].

Transmissibility, hospitalization, and intensive care admissions due to omicron compared to delta variants of SARS-CoV-2 in Catalonia: A cohort study and ecological analysis

Purpose

We aim to compare the severity of infections between omicron and delta variants in 609,352 SARS-CoV-2 positive cases using local hospitalization, vaccination, and variants data from the Catalan Health Care System (which covers around 7. 8 million people).

Methods

We performed a substitution model to establish the increase in transmissibility of omicron using variant screening data from primary care practices (PCP) and hospital admissions. In addition, we used this data from PCP to establish the two periods when delta and omicron were, respectively, dominant (above 95% of cases). After that, we performed a population-based cohort analysis to calculate the rates of hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions for both periods and to estimate reduction in severity. Rate ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated and stratified by age and vaccination status. In a second analysis, the differential substitution model in primary care vs. hospitals allowed us to obtain a population-level average change in severity.

Results

We have included 48,874 cases during the delta period and 560,658 during the omicron period. During the delta period, on average, 3.8% of the detected cases required hospitalization for COVID-19. This percentage dropped to 0.9% with omicron [RR of 0.46 (95% CI: 0.43 to 0.49)]. For ICU admissions, it dropped from 0.8 to 0.1% [RR 0.25 (95% CI: 0.21 to 0.28)]. The proportion of cases hospitalized or admitted to ICU was lower in the vaccinated groups, independently of the variant. Omicron was associated with a reduction in risk of admission to hospital and ICU in all age and vaccination status strata. The differential substitution models showed an average RR between 0.19 and 0.50.

Conclusion

Both independent methods consistently show an important decrease in severity for omicron relative to delta. The systematic reduction happens regardless of age. The severity is also reduced for non-vaccinated and vaccinated groups, but it remains always higher in the non-vaccinated population. This suggests an overall reduction in severity, which could be intrinsic to the omicron variant. The fact is that the RR in ICU admission is systematically smaller than in hospitalization points in the same direction.

Measuring the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic at a city level: An agent-based computational modelling study of the City of Natal

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic hit almost all cities in Brazil in early 2020 and lasted for several months. Despite the effort of local state and municipal governments, an inhomogeneous nationwide response resulted in a death toll amongst the highest recorded globally. To evaluate the impact of the nonpharmaceutical governmental interventions applied by different cities-such as the closure of schools and businesses in general-in the evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2, we constructed a full-sized agent-based epidemiological model adjusted to the singularities of particular cities. The model incorporates detailed demographic information, mobility networks segregated by economic segments, and restricting bills enacted during the pandemic period. As a case study, we analyzed the early response of the City of Natal-a midsized state capital-to the pandemic. Although our results indicate that the government response could be improved, the restrictive mobility acts saved many lives. The simulations show that a detailed analysis of alternative scenarios can inform policymakers about the most relevant measures for similar pandemic surges and help develop future response protocols.