SPA-LUCC: Developing land-use/cover scenarios in mountain landscapes

How has carbon storage changed in the Yili-Tianshan region over the past three decades and into the future? What has driven it to change?

Predicting future land use changes and assessing carbon storage remain challenging. Nowadays, how nature and socioeconomics drive changes in carbon storage is a hot topic in research. In this study, through the projection of land use type and the integration of the PLUS, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST), and Geodetector models, we constructed a framework for assessing carbon storage in different land use scenarios. Utilizing this framework, it is possible to project land use change and estimate carbon storage based on different development scenarios. We applied the framework to the Yili Tianshan region and identified the main driving forces for carbon storage change. Further, we estimated the carbon storage in the Yili Tianshan region in 2035 under four scenarios (RE, NE, EP, and CLP). The results showed the following: 1) Between 1990 and 2020, there was an increase in the forest area and water bodies in the Yili-Tianshan region, mainly from bare land. 2) As shown on the time scale, carbon storage increases in the Yili-Tianshan region with a W-shaped fluctuation by converting grasslands and bare land into forests. On a spatial scale, the carbon storage was lower in the center and higher on both sides in the Yili-Tianshan region. 3) In 2035- RE, 2035-ND, and 2035-EP scenarios, the carbon storage was increased by 4.30 Tg, 6.67 Tg, and 12.08 Tg; in the 2035-CLP scenario, it was decreased by 14.63 Tg. The Yili-Tianshan region experienced a notable rise in carbon storage under the 2035-EP scenario compared to the other three scenarios. 4) Soil type played a significant role in the spatial differentiation of carbon storage in Yili-Tianshan (q value 0.5958), followed by population density (0.5394). The changes in carbon storage in the Yili-Tianshan region are the result of synergistic effects of multiple factors, in which the soil type∩soil erosion intensity are the most important. This research could provide a reference method for improving regional carbon storage.

Projections of land use change and habitat quality assessment by coupling climate change and development patterns

Exploring future land use changes and assessing the habitat quality remains a challenging topic for watershed ecological sustainability. However, most studies ignore the effects of coupled climate change and development patterns. In this study, a framework for assessing habitat quality under the influence of future land use change is constructed based on exploring the driving forces of land use change factors and integrating the system dynamics (SD) model, future land use simulation (FLUS) model and InVest model. The framework enables the projection of land use change and the assessment of habitat quality in the context of future climate change and different development strategies. Applying the framework to the Weihe River Basin, the main driving forces of land-use change in the Weihe River Basin were identified based on geographical detectors, and habitat quality assessment was realized for the Weihe River Basin under the coupled scenarios of three typical shared socioeconomic pathways and future development patterns (SSP126-EP, SSP245-ND, SSP585-EG). The results show that 1) population, precipitation, and temperature are the major driving factors for land use change. 2) The coupling model of SD and FLUS can effectively simulate the future trend of land use change, the relative error is within 2 %, and the overall accuracy is 93.58 %. 3) Significant differences in habitat quality as a result of modifications in land use patterns in different contexts. Affected by ecological protection, the habitat quality in SSP126-EP was significantly better than that in SSP245-ND and SSP585-EG. This research can provide references for future watershed ecological management decisions.

Spatio-temporal analysis of the hydrological response to land cover changes in the sub-basin of the Chicú river, Colombia

During the last years, in the sub-basin of the Chicú river, the agricultural and cattle exploitation has intensified and has depleted the water resources, thereby causing a deficit that has limited the continuity of such agricultural activity. Therefore, it is necessary to quantify land use and land cover changes contribute to the hydrological response to achieve sustainable management of the water resources in the sub-basin. In this sense, an integrated approach was used, which includes the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model and the different LUCC (Land use and cover change) maps obtained through tele-detection by using Landsat images to decide the hydrological response in the basin with the changes in land cover and uses in 1997, 2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016. As a result of the SWAT modeling, it can be noticed that the surface run-off varies according to the type of cover and extension, increasing or decreasing the water flow according to the characteristics of each cover, as in the case of bare lands (AGRL). While in 2006 it represented an area of 7.32% with a run-off of 39.25 mm, in 2001 its area decreased to 5.66% with a run-off of 44.9 mm. Moreover, in 1997 a flow of 4.45 m 3 / s can be observed, whereas in 2001 it decreases by 15% in the main current, which can be justified by a decrease of 8.8% in dense (FRSD) and fragmented (FRDT) forests. For 2006 and 2011 scenarios, the flow increases 13% and 50%, respectively, which corresponds to an increase of 36% and 48% concerning 2001 in clean grasses (PAST); despite the increase in clean grasses (PAST), the surface run-off was maintained almost constant above 9 mm, and it is thus considered a more stable vegetation cover.

Spatio-temporal changes in ecosystem service values: Effects of land-use changes from past to future (1860-2100)

Increasing global pressure on natural resources requires that decision makers and land managers adopt sustainable solutions to ensure the long-term provision of essential ecosystem services (ES). Analysing the effects of land-use changes on ES can contribute to an improved understanding of the interactions between socio-economic development, landscape changes and ES, which is fundamental in order to avoid or mitigate the undesired consequences of today's decisions. Studies at longer timescales are still underrepresented, but are also fundamental for capturing slow social and ecological processes. This study therefore analysed the impacts of land-use/land cover (LULC) changes on ES values from the past to the future (1860-2100) in the Autonomous Province of South Tyrol (Italy). Future scenarios were based on socio-economic storylines and their spatial distribution mapped. By attributing ES values to LULC types, we assessed changes in ES values as well as their spatial patterns. Our results indicate that the abandonment of mountain grassland induced an ongoing shift in ES at higher elevations, from grassland-related ES towards forest-related ES. The intensification of use in the valley bottoms had predominantly negative effects on regulation & maintenance, and cultural ES in the past. Under future scenarios, changes in ES values at lower elevations greatly depend on expected socio-economic development. Negative effects on regulation & maintenance and cultural ES were highest for the 'Food sovereignty' scenario due to huge transformations of grassland and permanent cultures to arable land in order to optimise food provision at the regional level. In contrast, under the 'Liberalisation' and 'Rewilding' scenarios, there were positive trends for forest-related provisioning ES and less negative effects on regulation & maintenance and cultural ES within the study area, but the dependence on imported products increased. Our findings provide valuable information for decision-making and policy development in order to minimise negative consequences through targeted management measures or payments for environmental services.

A Review of Changes in Mountain Land Use and Ecosystem Services: From Theory to Practice

Global changes impact the human-environment relationship, and, in particular, they affect the provision of ecosystem services. Mountain ecosystems provide a wide range of such services, but they are highly sensitive and vulnerable to change due to various human pressures and natural processes. We conducted a literature survey that focused on two main issues. The first was the identification of quantitative methods aimed at assessing the impact of land use changes in mountain regions and the related ecosystem services. The second was the analysis of the extent to which the outcomes of these assessments are useful and transferable to stakeholders. We selected papers through a keyword-driven search of the ISI Web of Knowledge and other international databases. The keywords used for the search were mountain land use change and ecosystem service. Quantitative approaches to ecosystem service assessment rely on suitable indicators, therefore land use/land cover can be used as an appropriate proxy. Landscape metrics are a powerful analytical tool; their use can increase the accuracy of assessments and facilitate the mitigation of specific phenomena, such as fragmentation or the reduction of core habitat areas. Mapping is essential: it is the basis for spatial analyzes and eases the interactions between stakeholders. Land use/land cover change is a temporal process, so both past and future approaches are meaningful. It is necessary to enhance information transfer from theory to practice. Increasing stakeholder awareness can lead to suitable management solutions, and, reciprocally, stakeholder feedback can help improve current assessment methodologies and contribute to developing new tools that are suitable for specific problems.

Dynamic simulation of land use change based on logistic-CA-Markov and WLC-CA-Markov models: a case study in three gorges reservoir area of Chongqing, China

The construction of The Three Gorges Reservoir has changed land use structure and reconstituted landscape pattern as imparts significant influence upon the land use structure and ecological environment of Three Gorges Reservoir Regions. The ecological safety of reservoir area is extremely dependent on unique location and special geological conditions of Zhongxian County, the center of Three Gorges Reservoir Regions in Chongqing, and therefore, ecological environment of reservoir area will be changed with the transition of land use in Zhongxian County. Based on land use data in 2000, 2005, 2010, this paper chooses influencing factors from aspects of natural topographic and geomorphological conditions, accessibility to economic development and land use expansion, and then establishes Logistic-CA-Markov (Logistic-Cellular Automata-Markov) and WLC-CA-Markov (Weighted Linear Combination- Cellular Automata- Markov) models so as to simulate spatial pattern of land use of Zhongxian County. The results demonstrate that WLC-CA-Markov model established here has better controllability and higher simulation precision (the kappa coefficient is 0.9295). In the future development of Zhongxian County, the area of grassland and plow land will be reduced continuously, the area of construction land will be expanded obviously mostly because of the added area both near the water and in the north of Zhongxian county, the area of woodland will be increased to a little extent, the area of water area and unused land has gentle change. In the sustainable scenario, the area of grassland will be reduced slightly, the area of water area keeps steady, the area of plow land is reduced but higher than red line of plow land, the area of construction land is increased with significantly smaller increase amplitude than that in the natural development scenario, and the woodland is increased. This scenario coordinates ecological environment with economic development of regional society and turns out to be the best development scenario of land use.

Historical trajectories in land use pattern and grassland ecosystem services in two European alpine landscapes

Land use and spatial patterns which reflect social-ecological legacies control ecosystem service (ES) supply. Yet, temporal changes in ES bundles associated with land use change are little studied. We developed original metrics to quantify synchronous historical variations in spatial patterns of land use and ES supply capacity, and demonstrated their use for two mountain grassland landscapes. Consistent with other European mountains, land use dynamics from the nineteenth century until the mid-twentieth century resulted in increased landscape heterogeneity, followed by homogenisation. In the persistently grassy landscape of Lautaret in France, landscape multifunctionality-the provision of multiple ES-coincided with greatest landscape heterogeneity and within-patch diversity in ecosystem services in the 1950-1970s. In the more complex Austrian landscape, where since the nineteenth century intensive production has concentrated in the valley and steep slopes have been abandoned, grassland landscape-level multifunctionality and spatial heterogeneity across grasslands have decreased. Increasing spatial heterogeneity across grasslands until the 1970s was paralleled at both sites by increasing fine-grained spatial variability for individual ES, but subsequent landscape simplification has promoted coarse-grained ES patterns This novel analysis of landscape-scale turnover highlighted how spatial patterns for individual ES scale to multiple grassland ES, depending on the nature of land use spatial variability. Under current socio-economic trends, sustaining or re-establishing fine-grained landscapes is often not feasible, thus future landscape planning and policies might focus on managing landscape and regional-scale multifunctionality. Also, the trends towards decreasing cultural ES and increasing regulating ES suggest a contradiction with current social demand and regional policies.

Future impacts of changing land-use and climate on ecosystem services of mountain grassland and their resilience

Although the ecosystem services provided by mountain grasslands have been demonstrated to be highly vulnerable to environmental and management changes in the past, it remains unclear how they will be affected in the face of a combination of further land-use/cover changes and accelerating climate change. Moreover, the resilience of ecosystem services has not been sufficiently analysed under future scenarios. This study aimed to assess future impacts on multiple mountain grassland ecosystem services and their resilience. For a study area in the Central Alps (Stubai Valley, Austria), six ecosystem services were quantified using plant trait-based models for current and future conditions (in 2050 and 2100) considering three socio-economic scenarios. Under all scenarios, the greatest changes in ecosystem services were related to the natural reforestation of abandoned grassland, causing a shift from grassland to forest services. Although the high resilience potential of most ecosystem services will be maintained in the future, climate change seems to have negative impacts, especially on the resilience of forage production. Thus, decision makers and farmers will be faced with the higher vulnerability of ecosystem services of mountain grassland. Future policies should consider both socio-economic and environmental dynamics to manage valuable ecosystem services.

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Factors of land abandonment in mountainous Mediterranean areas: the case of Montenegrin settlements

Land use changes have been investigated in the surroundings of 14 rural Montenegrin settlements in order to get specific information about trends in land abandonment since around 1950. Permanently, seasonally and less inhabited settlements with different geographic conditions were studied. This was done by interviewing local inhabitants, which enabled a holistic approach to reveal the underlying processes of land abandonment. According to the observed patterns of land use change, the study sites can be categorized into intensified, urbanized, extensified, overgrown and forested cases. The category of extensified settlements is characterized by a highly reduced agricultural management intensity, resulting in an increase in grasslands and fruit trees at the expense of cropland. This land use change is mainly related to emigrating and aging inhabitants, having less livestock. Such extensive land use is found in both permanently inhabited and abandoned villages. Only some studied settlements became largely overgrown by bushes and forest. The steep average slope gradients and a large distance to the nearest city are explanatory factors of such land abandonment. Land use intensification takes place in low-lying areas located nearby towns.

Integration of land use and land cover inventories for landscape management and planning in Italy

There are both semantic and technical differences between land use (LU) and land cover (LC) measurements. In cartographic approaches, these differences are often neglected, giving rise to a hybrid classification. The aim of this paper is to provide a better understanding and characterization of the two classification schemes using a comparison that allows maximization of the informative power of both. The analysis was carried out in the Molise region (Central Italy) using sample information from the Italian Land Use Inventory (IUTI). The sampling points were classified with a visual interpretation of aerial photographs for both LU and LC in order to estimate surfaces and assess the changes that occurred between 2000 and 2012. The results underscore the polarization of land use and land cover changes resulting from the following: (a) recolonization of natural surfaces, (b) strong dynamisms between the LC classes in the natural and semi-natural domain and (c) urban sprawl on the lower hills and plains. Most of the observed transitions are attributable to decreases in croplands, natural grasslands and pastures, owing to agricultural abandonment. The results demonstrate that a comparison between LU and LC estimates and their changes provides an understanding of the causes of misalignment between the two criteria. Such information may be useful for planning policies in both natural and semi-natural contexts as well as in urban areas.

Changes in rangeland cover associated with livestock grazing in Altun National Nature Reserve, northwest Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

The Altun National Nature Reserve, located on the northern edge of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau of China, is one of 35 most important biodiversity sites worldwide. Land-use and cover change are affecting this alpine ecosystem. A supervised classification was used to classify types containing meadow, steppe, sparse rangeland, and non-rangeland environments based on Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery data. By conducting an aggregation analysis using a Geographic Information System an analysis of changes from 1990 to 2010 was conducted. The results demonstrated that sparse rangeland was the most widespread vegetation type and underwent significant changes over the period. The area of sparse rangeland increased by 64.4 km2 from 1990 to 1995 and by 49.3 km2 from 1995 to 2000. However, the area of sparse rangeland decreased by 99.2 km2 from 2000 to 2005 and by 247.4 km2 from 2005 to 2010. The major areas of change were primarily located in the vicinities of the Yishakipati central inspection station, the Kardun inspection station, and Ayakkum, Aqqikkol and Jingyu Lakes. There was a positive correlation between the change in area of sparse rangeland and the amount of livestock grazing. The change in non-rangeland was significantly negatively correlated with the amount of livestock grazing during the period in the grazing area. Appropriate livestock grazing may be essential for promoting the resilience of the predominant ecosystems and key habitats of wildlife in the Altun National Nature Reserve.

Evaluating the impact of distance measures on deforestation simulations in the fluvial landscapes of amazonia

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) models frequently employ different accessibility measures as a proxy for human influence on land change processes. Here, we simulate deforestation in Peruvian Amazonia and evaluate different accessibility measures as LUCC model inputs. We demonstrate how the selection, and different combinations, of accessibility measures impact simulation results. Out of the individual measures, time distance to market center catches the essential aspects of accessibility in our study area. The most accurate simulation is achieved when time distance to market center is used in association with distance to transport network and additional landscape variables. Although traditional Euclidean measures result in clearly lower simulation accuracy when used separately, the combination of two complementary Euclidean measures enhances simulation accuracy significantly. Our results highlight the need for site and context sensitive selection of accessibility variables. More sophisticated accessibility measures can potentially improve LUCC models' spatial accuracy, which often remains low.