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Ingram J, Bellotti W, Brklacich M, Achterbosch T, Balázs B, Banse M, Fielke S, Gordon L, Hasnain S, Herman L, Kanter R, Kaye-Blake W, Mounsey J, Pihlanto A, Quinlan A, Six J, Stotten R, Tomich T, Tóth A, Yacamán C, Zurek M. Further concepts and approaches for enhancing food system resilience. Nat Food 2023:10.1038/s43016-023-00762-5. [PMID: 37258937 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-023-00762-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- John Ingram
- Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, Oxford, UK.
| | - William Bellotti
- School of Agriculture and Food Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Mike Brklacich
- Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Bálint Balázs
- Environmental Social Science Research Group, Nonprofit Kft, Impact Hub Budapest, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Martin Banse
- Institute of Market Analysis, Thunen Institut, Braunschweig, Germany
| | - Simon Fielke
- CSIRO Land and Water, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Line Gordon
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Saher Hasnain
- Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, Oxford, UK
| | - Lieve Herman
- Flanders Research Institute for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Merelbeke, Belgium
| | - Rebecca Kanter
- Department of Nutrition, Faculty of Medicine, Universidad de Chile, Santiago de Chile, Chile
| | | | - Jerome Mounsey
- Trade and Agriculture Directorate, Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development, Paris, France
| | - Anne Pihlanto
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - Johan Six
- Department of Environmental Systems Science: Institut für Agrarwissenschaften, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | | | - Thomas Tomich
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, CA, USA
| | - Attila Tóth
- Slovak University of Agriculture in Nitra, Nitra, Slovakia
| | - Carolina Yacamán
- Departamento de Geografía, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria de Cantoblanco, Madrid, Spain
| | - Monika Zurek
- Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, Oxford, UK
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Huber L, Rüdisser J, Meisch C, Stotten R, Leitinger G, Tappeiner U. Agent-based modelling of water balance in a social-ecological system: A multidisciplinary approach for mountain catchments. Sci Total Environ 2021; 755:142962. [PMID: 33348483 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142962] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2020] [Revised: 09/05/2020] [Accepted: 10/06/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
The European Alps are known as the 'water towers of Europe'. However, climatic and socioeconomic changes influence both water supply and demand, increasing the need to manage this limited and valuable resource properly to avoid user conflicts and water scarcity. Two major challenges emerge when assessing water scarcity in the Alps: Firstly, mountainous regions are very heterogeneous regarding water availability and demand over space and time, and therefore water scarcity assessments need to be done at low temporal and spatial scales. Secondly, the tight coupling of the natural and the social sphere necessitate an integrative approach considering dynamics and interactions of the social-ecological system. Hence, we applied the agent-based water supply and demand model Aqua.MORE, which is designed for catchment scale and sub-daily temporal resolution, to a case study site in the Italian Alps. In the model, the water supply, the local water managers and water users are represented by interacting model agents. We estimated the water supply by refining the annual runoff data provided by the InVEST water yield model for within-year variations. Local stakeholders contributed to the development of quantitative and spatially-explicit scenarios for land use and tourism evolution. To evaluate water supply and demand dynamics, we assessed six scenarios for the period of 2015 to 2050: three different socio-economic policy pathways, both alone and in combination with a climate change scenario. In all six scenarios, the water demand:supply (D:S) ratio continuously rises from 2015 to 2050.The highest D:S ratio values are prognosed at the beginning of the irrigation period in May. In all scenarios considering climatic changes, the D:S ratio exceeds 20% for several days, indicating potential water scarcity. The simulation results reinforce the importance of analysing water balances at a high temporal resolution and can support management processes and stakeholder dialogues for sustainable watershed management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lisa Huber
- Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Sternwartestraße 15, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria.
| | - Johannes Rüdisser
- Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Sternwartestraße 15, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria.
| | - Claude Meisch
- Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Sternwartestraße 15, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria; Ministère de l'Environnement, du Climat et du Développement durable, Le Gouvernement du Grand-Duché de Luxembourg, 4361 Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg.
| | - Rike Stotten
- Department of Sociology, University of Innsbruck, Universitätsstrasse 15, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria.
| | - Georg Leitinger
- Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Sternwartestraße 15, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria.
| | - Ulrike Tappeiner
- Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Sternwartestraße 15, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria; Institute for Alpine Environment, Eurac Research, Viale Druso 1, 39100 Bozen/Bolzano, Italy.
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Strasser U, Förster K, Formayer H, Hofmeister F, Marke T, Meißl G, Nadeem I, Stotten R, Schermer M. Storylines of combined future land use and climate scenarios and their hydrological impacts in an Alpine catchment (Brixental/Austria). Sci Total Environ 2019; 657:746-763. [PMID: 30677940 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.077] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2018] [Revised: 12/03/2018] [Accepted: 12/05/2018] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
In this paper, the hydrological impacts of future socio-economic and climatic development are assessed for a regional-scale Alpine catchment (Brixental, Tyrol, Austria). Therefore, coupled storylines of future land use and climate scenarios were developed in a transdisciplinary stakeholder process by means of questionnaire analyses and interviews with local experts from various relevant societal sectors. Resulting future land use maps for each decade were used as spatial input in the hydrological model WaSiM, to which a new module for the consideration of snow-canopy interaction processes has been added. Simulation results for three developed storylines, each combined with a moderate (A1B) and an extreme (RCP8.5) climate future, show that in a warmer and dryer climate the amount of annual simulated streamflow at the gauge of the catchment undergoes a significant reduction. The (mainly natural) reforestation of the catchment - caused by abandonment of previously cultivated areas - leads to additional losses of water by enhanced interception and evapotranspiration processes. Further cultivation of the current mountain pasture areas has a certain potential to attenuate undesirable long-term impacts of climate change on the catchment water balance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ulrich Strasser
- University of Innsbruck, Department of Geography, Innsbruck, Austria.
| | - Kristian Förster
- Leibniz Universität Hannover, Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Hannover, Germany
| | - Herbert Formayer
- BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Institute of Meteorology, Vienna, Austria
| | | | - Thomas Marke
- University of Innsbruck, Department of Geography, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Gertraud Meißl
- University of Innsbruck, Department of Geography, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Imran Nadeem
- BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Institute of Meteorology, Vienna, Austria
| | - Rike Stotten
- University of Innsbruck, Department of Sociology, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Markus Schermer
- University of Innsbruck, Department of Sociology, Innsbruck, Austria
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Kohler M, Stotten R, Steinbacher M, Leitinger G, Tasser E, Schirpke U, Tappeiner U, Schermer M. Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems. Environ Manage 2017; 60:679-692. [PMID: 28620759 PMCID: PMC5602087 DOI: 10.1007/s00267-017-0903-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2016] [Accepted: 06/02/2017] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marina Kohler
- Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Sternwartestrasse 15, 6020, Innsbruck, Austria.
| | - Rike Stotten
- Department of Sociology, Mountain Agricultural Research Centre, University of Innsbruck, Universitätsstrasse 15, 6020, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Melanie Steinbacher
- LEADERRegion Kufstein und Umgebung-Untere Schranne-Kaiserwinkl, Prof.-Sinwel-Weg 2, 6330, Kufstein, Austria
| | - Georg Leitinger
- Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Sternwartestrasse 15, 6020, Innsbruck, Austria
- Institute for Alpine Environment, EURAC Research, Viale Druso 1, 39100, Bozen/Bolzano, Italy
| | - Erich Tasser
- Institute for Alpine Environment, EURAC Research, Viale Druso 1, 39100, Bozen/Bolzano, Italy
| | - Uta Schirpke
- Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Sternwartestrasse 15, 6020, Innsbruck, Austria
- Institute for Alpine Environment, EURAC Research, Viale Druso 1, 39100, Bozen/Bolzano, Italy
| | - Ulrike Tappeiner
- Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Sternwartestrasse 15, 6020, Innsbruck, Austria
- Institute for Alpine Environment, EURAC Research, Viale Druso 1, 39100, Bozen/Bolzano, Italy
| | - Markus Schermer
- Department of Sociology, Mountain Agricultural Research Centre, University of Innsbruck, Universitätsstrasse 15, 6020, Innsbruck, Austria
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