FIDIMO — A free and open source GIS based dispersal model for riverine fish

Stable isotopes (15N) facilitate non-invasive labelling of large quantities of macroinvertebrates across different species and feeding types

While macroinvertebrate dispersal operates at the individual level, predictions of their dispersal capabilities often rely on indirect proxies rather than direct measurements. To gain insight into the dispersal of individual specimens, it is crucial to mark (label) and capture individuals. Isotopic enrichment with 15N is a non-invasive method with the potential of labelling large quantities of macroinvertebrates. While the analysis of 15N is widely utilised in food web studies, knowledge on the specific utility of isotopic enrichment with 15N for mass labelling of macroinvertebrate individuals across different taxa and feeding types is limited. Previous studies have focused on single species and feeding types, leaving gaps in our understanding of the broader applicability of this method. Therefore, this study aimed to test and compare isotopic mass enrichment across several macroinvertebrate taxa and feeding types. We released 15NH4Cl at five stream reaches in North-Rhine Westphalia, Germany, and successfully enriched 12 distinct macroinvertebrate taxa (Crustacea and Insecta). Significant enrichment was achieved in active and passive filter feeders, grazers, shredders and predators, and predominantly showed positive correlations with the enrichment of the taxa's main food sources phytobenthos and particulate organic matter. Enrichment levels rose rapidly and peaked at distances between 50 m and 300 m downstream of the isotopic inlet; significant enrichment occurred up to 2000 m downstream of the isotopic inlet in all feeding types. Macroinvertebrate density estimates on the stream bottom averaged to a total of approximately 3.4 million labelled individuals of the 12 investigated taxa, thus showing the high potential of isotopic (15N) enrichment as a non-invasive method applicable for mass labelling across different macroinvertebrate feeding types. Hence, isotopic enrichment can greatly assist the analysis of macroinvertebrate dispersal through mark-and-recapture experiments, as it allows to measure the movement at the level of individual specimens.

Improved river continuity facilitates fishes' abilities to track future environmental changes

Barriers represent one of the largest anthropogenic impacts on the ecological status of rivers, and they also potentially restrict fishes' ability to respond to future environmental changes. Thus, river management aims to restore the longitudinal connectivity of rivers to allow continuous migration and movement of water, sediments and biota. However, it is often unclear whether the targeted barriers are also those most relevant for fish species, particularly to track future habitat shifts caused by environmental change. In this study, we applied species distribution models and the GIS-based fish dispersal model FIDIMO to evaluate the impacts of barriers (e.g. weirs and dams) on the dispersal of 17 native fish species in the European River Elbe with a particular focus on climate- and land use-induced habitat shifts. Specifically, we compared three scenarios of longitudinal connectivity: (i) current longitudinal connectivity, (ii) connectivity improvements as planned by river managers for 2021 and (iii) a reference with full longitudinal connectivity. The models indicated that barriers restricted the movement of two modeled fish species on average, thus impeding fishes' abilities to track future habitat shifts. Moreover, the number of species affected by barriers increased downstream. For the River Elbe, our results suggest that river management has most likely identified the most relevant barriers in respect to the modeled species and future environmental change. We emphasize that river management and barrier prioritization must thoroughly consider species-specific movement and dispersal abilities, as well as the specific spatial arrangement of barriers in the river system in relation to the spatial distribution of species' populations and suitable habitats.

The future distribution of river fish: The complex interplay of climate and land use changes, species dispersal and movement barriers

The future distribution of river fishes will be jointly affected by climate and land use changes forcing species to move in space. However, little is known whether fish species will be able to keep pace with predicted climate and land use-driven habitat shifts, in particular in fragmented river networks. In this study, we coupled species distribution models (stepwise boosted regression trees) of 17 fish species with species-specific models of their dispersal (fish dispersal model FIDIMO) in the European River Elbe catchment. We quantified (i) the extent and direction (up- vs. downstream) of predicted habitat shifts under coupled "moderate" and "severe" climate and land use change scenarios for 2050, and (ii) the dispersal abilities of fishes to track predicted habitat shifts while explicitly considering movement barriers (e.g., weirs, dams). Our results revealed median net losses of suitable habitats of 24 and 94 river kilometers per species for the moderate and severe future scenarios, respectively. Predicted habitat gains and losses and the direction of habitat shifts were highly variable among species. Habitat gains were negatively related to fish body size, i.e., suitable habitats were projected to expand for smaller-bodied fishes and to contract for larger-bodied fishes. Moreover, habitats of lowland fish species were predicted to shift downstream, whereas those of headwater species showed upstream shifts. The dispersal model indicated that suitable habitats are likely to shift faster than species might disperse. In particular, smaller-bodied fish (<200 mm) seem most vulnerable and least able to track future environmental change as their habitat shifted most and they are typically weaker dispersers. Furthermore, fishes and particularly larger-bodied species might substantially be restricted by movement barriers to respond to predicted climate and land use changes, while smaller-bodied species are rather restricted by their specific dispersal ability.

Synergistic and antagonistic interactions of future land use and climate change on river fish assemblages

River ecosystems are threatened by future changes in land use and climatic conditions. However, little is known of the influence of interactions of these two dominant global drivers of change on ecosystems. Does the interaction amplify (synergistic interaction) or buffer (antagonistic interaction) the impacts and does their interaction effect differ in magnitude, direction and spatial extent compared to single independent pressures. In this study, we model the impact of single and interacting effects of land use and climate change on the spatial distribution of 33 fish species in the Elbe River. The varying effects were modeled using step-wise boosted regression trees based on 250 m raster grid cells. Species-specific models were built for both 'moderate' and 'extreme' future land use and climate change scenarios to assess synergistic, additive and antagonistic interaction effects on species losses, species gains and diversity indices and to quantify their spatial distribution within the Elbe River network. Our results revealed species richness is predicted to increase by 0.7-2.9 species by 2050 across the entire river network. Changes in species richness are likely to be spatially variable with significant changes predicted for 56-85% of the river network. Antagonistic interactions would dominate species losses and gains in up to 75% of the river network. In contrast, synergistic and additive effects would occur in only 20% and 16% of the river network, respectively. The magnitude of the interaction was negatively correlated with the magnitudes of the single independent effects of land use and climate change. Evidence is provided to show that future land use and climate change effects are highly interactive resulting in species range shifts that would be spatially variable in size and characteristic. These findings emphasize the importance of adaptive river management and the design of spatially connected conservation areas to compensate for these high species turnovers and range shifts.

A Modelling Framework to Assess the Effect of Pressures on River Abiotic Habitat Conditions and Biota

River biota are affected by global reach-scale pressures, but most approaches for predicting biota of rivers focus on river reach or segment scale processes and habitats. Moreover, these approaches do not consider long-term morphological changes that affect habitat conditions. In this study, a modelling framework was further developed and tested to assess the effect of pressures at different spatial scales on reach-scale habitat conditions and biota. Ecohydrological and 1D hydrodynamic models were used to predict discharge and water quality at the catchment scale and the resulting water level at the downstream end of a study reach. Long-term reach morphology was modelled using empirical regime equations, meander migration and 2D morphodynamic models. The respective flow and substrate conditions in the study reach were predicted using a 2D hydrodynamic model, and the suitability of these habitats was assessed with novel habitat models. In addition, dispersal models for fish and macroinvertebrates were developed to assess the re-colonization potential and to finally compare habitat suitability and the availability / ability of species to colonize these habitats. Applicability was tested and model performance was assessed by comparing observed and predicted conditions in the lowland Treene River in northern Germany. Technically, it was possible to link the different models, but future applications would benefit from the development of open source software for all modelling steps to enable fully automated model runs. Future research needs concern the physical modelling of long-term morphodynamics, feedback of biota (e.g., macrophytes) on abiotic habitat conditions, species interactions, and empirical data on the hydraulic habitat suitability and dispersal abilities of macroinvertebrates. The modelling framework is flexible and allows for including additional models and investigating different research and management questions, e.g., in climate impact research as well as river restoration and management.

Disentangling the effects of habitat suitability, dispersal, and fragmentation on the distribution of river fishes

Habitat suitability, dispersal potential, and fragmentation influence the distribution of stream fishes; however, their relative influence and interacting effects on species distributions are poorly understood, which may result in uncertain outcomes of river rehabilitation and conservation. Using empirical data describing 17 relatively common stream fishes, we combine (1) species habitat suitability models (MaxEnt) with a (2) species dispersal model (FIDIMO) and a (3) worst-case scenario of the influence of river fragmentation on dispersal. Using generalized linear mixed models, we aimed to uncover the role of these factors in explaining the probability of presence. Simulations over nine years allowed for assessing the relative importance of dispersal over time for structuring species occurrences vs. the importance of habitat suitability. Models combining all three structuring factors performed consistently better in predicting the spatial occurrence patterns than models including only single factors. Our results confirmed that distribution patterns of stream fishes are jointly controlled by species dispersal and habitat suitability. An increase of 0.1 habitat suitability probability more than doubled the odds of species occurrence; an increase of 0.1 dispersal probability yielded a 14-fold increase of the odds of species occurrence. Temporal simulations revealed that over short time frames (1-2 years) dispersal from nearby source populations is four times more important than habitat suitability for species presence. However, over longer time periods, the importance of habitat suitability increases relative to the importance of dispersal. Surprisingly, fragmentation by migration barriers did not appear as a significant driver of occurrence patterns. Concluding, these findings demonstrate the importance of the spatial arrangement of suitable habitats and potential source populations, as well as their relative position in relation to barriers. We emphasize considering the direction of connections within river networks and the dispersal abilities of fishes, as well as providing (access to) new, suitable habitat for successful river rehabilitation.