A spatio-temporal LSTM model to forecast across multiple temporal and spatial scales

Cardiovascular Disease Risk Stratification Using Hybrid Deep Learning Paradigm: First of Its Kind on Canadian Trial Data

BACKGROUND

The risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has traditionally been predicted via the assessment of carotid plaques. In the proposed study, AtheroEdge™ 3.0HDL (AtheroPoint™, Roseville, CA, USA) was designed to demonstrate how well the features obtained from carotid plaques determine the risk of CVD. We hypothesize that hybrid deep learning (HDL) will outperform unidirectional deep learning, bidirectional deep learning, and machine learning (ML) paradigms.

METHODOLOGY

500 people who had undergone targeted carotid B-mode ultrasonography and coronary angiography were included in the proposed study. ML feature selection was carried out using three different methods, namely principal component analysis (PCA) pooling, the chi-square test (CST), and the random forest regression (RFR) test. The unidirectional and bidirectional deep learning models were trained, and then six types of novel HDL-based models were designed for CVD risk stratification. The AtheroEdge™ 3.0HDL was scientifically validated using seen and unseen datasets while the reliability and statistical tests were conducted using CST along with p-value significance. The performance of AtheroEdge™ 3.0HDL was evaluated by measuring the p-value and area-under-the-curve for both seen and unseen data.

RESULTS

The HDL system showed an improvement of 30.20% (0.954 vs. 0.702) over the ML system using the seen datasets. The ML feature extraction analysis showed 70% of common features among all three methods. The generalization of AtheroEdge™ 3.0HDL showed less than 1% (p-value < 0.001) difference between seen and unseen data, complying with regulatory standards.

CONCLUSIONS

The hypothesis for AtheroEdge™ 3.0HDL was scientifically validated, and the model was tested for reliability and stability and is further adaptable clinically.

Deep learning approach for cardiovascular disease risk stratification and survival analysis on a Canadian cohort

The quantification of carotid plaque has been routinely used to predict cardiovascular risk in cardiovascular disease (CVD) and coronary artery disease (CAD). To determine how well carotid plaque features predict the likelihood of CAD and cardiovascular (CV) events using deep learning (DL) and compare against the machine learning (ML) paradigm. The participants in this study consisted of 459 individuals who had undergone coronary angiography, contrast-enhanced ultrasonography, and focused carotid B-mode ultrasound. Each patient was tracked for thirty days. The measurements on these patients consisted of maximum plaque height (MPH), total plaque area (TPA), carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), and intraplaque neovascularization (IPN). CAD risk and CV event stratification were performed by applying eight types of DL-based models. Univariate and multivariate analysis was also conducted to predict the most significant risk predictors. The DL's model effectiveness was evaluated by the area-under-the-curve measurement while the CV event prediction was evaluated using the Cox proportional hazard model (CPHM) and compared against the DL-based concordance index (c-index). IPN showed a substantial ability to predict CV events (p < 0.0001). The best DL system improved by 21% (0.929 vs. 0.762) over the best ML system. DL-based CV event prediction showed a ~ 17% increase in DL-based c-index compared to the CPHM (0.86 vs. 0.73). CAD and CV incidents were linked to IPN and carotid imaging characteristics. For survival analysis and CAD prediction, the DL-based system performs superior to ML-based models.

Attention-based message passing and dynamic graph convolution for spatiotemporal data imputation

Although numerous spatiotemporal approaches have been presented to address the problem of missing spatiotemporal data, there are still limitations in concurrently capturing the underlying spatiotemporal dependence of spatiotemporal graph data. Furthermore, most imputation methods miss the hidden dynamic connection associations that exist between graph nodes over time. To address the aforementioned spatiotemporal data imputation challenge, we present an attention-based message passing and dynamic graph convolution network (ADGCN). Specifically, this paper uses attention mechanisms to unify temporal and spatial continuity and aggregate node neighbor information in multiple directions. Furthermore, a dynamic graph convolution module is designed to capture constantly changing spatial correlations in sensors utilizing a new dynamic graph generation method with gating to transmit node information. Extensive imputation tests in the air quality and traffic flow domains were carried out on four real missing data sets. Experiments show that the ADGCN outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline.