Modelling forest–savanna mosaic dynamics in man-influenced environments: effects of fire, climate and soil heterogeneity

Emergent structure and dynamics of tropical forest-grassland landscapes

Previous work indicates that tropical forest can exist as an alternative stable state to savanna. Therefore, perturbation by climate change or human impact may lead to crossing of a tipping point beyond which there is rapid forest dieback that is not easily reversed. A hypothesized mechanism for such bistability is feedback between fire and vegetation, where fire spreads as a contagion process on grass patches. Theoretical models have largely implemented this mechanism implicitly, by assuming a threshold dependence of fire spread on flammable vegetation. Here, we show how the nonlinear dynamics and bistability emerge spontaneously, without assuming equations or thresholds for fire spread. We find that the forest geometry causes the nonlinearity that induces bistability. We demonstrate this in three steps. First, we model forest and fire as interacting contagion processes on grass patches, showing that spatial structure emerges due to two counteracting effects on the forest perimeter: forest expansion by dispersal and forest erosion by fires originating in adjacent grassland. Then, we derive a landscape-scale balance equation in which these two effects link forest geometry and dynamics: Forest expands proportionally to its perimeter, while it shrinks proportionally to its perimeter weighted by adjacent grassland area. Finally, we show that these perimeter quantities introduce nonlinearity in our balance equation and lead to bistability. Relying on the link between structure and dynamics, we propose a forest resilience indicator that could be used for targeted conservation or restoration.

Quantifying the environmental limits to fire spread in grassy ecosystems

Modeling fire spread as an infection process is intuitive: An ignition lights a patch of fuel, which infects its neighbor, and so on. Infection models produce nonlinear thresholds, whereby fire spreads only when fuel connectivity and infection probability are sufficiently high. These thresholds are fundamental both to managing fire and to theoretical models of fire spread, whereas applied fire models more often apply quasi-empirical approaches. Here, we resolve this tension by quantifying thresholds in fire spread locally, using field data from individual fires (n = 1,131) in grassy ecosystems across a precipitation gradient (496 to 1,442 mm mean annual precipitation) and evaluating how these scaled regionally (across 533 sites) and across time (1989 to 2012 and 2016 to 2018) using data from Kruger National Park in South Africa. An infection model captured observed patterns in individual fire spread better than competing models. The proportion of the landscape that burned was well described by measurements of grass biomass, fuel moisture, and vapor pressure deficit. Regionally, averaging across variability resulted in quasi-linear patterns. Altogether, results suggest that models aiming to capture fire responses to global change should incorporate nonlinear fire spread thresholds but that linear approximations may sufficiently capture medium-term trends under a stationary climate.

Spatial structure in protected forest-grassland mosaics: Exploring futures under climate change

In mosaic ecosystems, multiple land types coexist as alternative stable states exhibiting distinct spatial patterns. Forest-grassland mosaics are ecologically valuable, due to their high species richness. However, anthropogenic disturbances threaten these ecosystems. Designating protected areas is one approach to preserving natural mosaics. Such work must account for climate change, yet there are few spatially explicit models of mosaics under climate change that can predict its effects. We construct a spatially explicit simulation model for a natural forest-grassland mosaic, parameterized for Southern Brazil. Using this model, we investigate how the spatial structure of these systems is altered under climate change and other disturbance regimes. By including local spatial interactions and fire-mediated forest recruitment, our model reproduces important spatial features of protected real-world mosaics, including the number of forest patches and overall forest cover. Multiple concurrent changes in environmental conditions have greater impacts on tree cover and spatial structure in simulated mosaics than single changes. This sensitivity reflects the narrow range of conditions under which simulated mosaics persist and emphasizes their vulnerability. Our model predicts that, in protected mosaics, climate change impacts on the fire-mediated threshold to recruitment will likely result in substantial increases in forest cover under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, with potential for mosaic loss over a broad range of initial forest cover levels. Forest cover trajectories are similar until 2150, when cover increases under RCP 8.5 outpace those under RCP 2.6. Mosaics that persist under RCP 8.5 may experience structural alterations at the patch and landscape level. Our simple model predicts several realistic aspects of spatial structure as well as plausible responses to likely regional climate shifts. Hence, further model development could provide a useful tool when building strategies for protecting these ecosystems, by informing site selection for conservation areas that will be favourable to forest-grassland mosaics under future climates.

Dispersal Increases the Resilience of Tropical Savanna and Forest Distributions

Global change may induce changes in savanna and forest distributions, but the dynamics of these changes remain unclear. Classical biome theory suggests that climate is predictive of biome distributions, such that shifts will be continuous and reversible. This view, however, cannot explain the overlap in the climatic ranges of tropical biomes, which some argue may result from fire-vegetation feedbacks, maintaining savanna and forest as bistable states. Under this view, biome shifts are argued to be discontinuous and irreversible. Mean-field bistable models, however, are also limited, as they cannot reproduce the spatial aggregation of biomes. Here we suggest that both models ignore spatial processes, such as dispersal, which may be important when savanna and forest abut. We examine the contributions of dispersal to determining biome distributions using a 2D reaction-diffusion model, comparing results qualitatively to empirical savanna and forest distributions in sub-Saharan Africa. We find that the diffusion model resolves both the aforementioned limitations of biome models. First, local dispersive spatial interactions, with an underlying precipitation gradient, can reproduce the spatial aggregation of biomes with a stable savanna-forest boundary. Second, the boundary is determined not only by the amount of precipitation but also by the geometrical shape of the precipitation contours. These geometrical effects arise from continental-scale source-sink dynamics, which reproduce the mismatch between biome and climate. Dynamically, the spatial model predicts that dispersal may increase the resilience of tropical biome in response to global change: the boundary continuously tracks climate, recovering following disturbances, unless the remnant biome patches are too small.

Organizing principles for vegetation dynamics

Plants and vegetation play a critical-but largely unpredictable-role in global environmental changes due to the multitude of contributing processes at widely different spatial and temporal scales. In this Perspective, we explore approaches to master this complexity and improve our ability to predict vegetation dynamics by explicitly taking account of principles that constrain plant and ecosystem behaviour: natural selection, self-organization and entropy maximization. These ideas are increasingly being used in vegetation models, but we argue that their full potential has yet to be realized. We demonstrate the power of natural selection-based optimality principles to predict photosynthetic and carbon allocation responses to multiple environmental drivers, as well as how individual plasticity leads to the predictable self-organization of forest canopies. We show how models of natural selection acting on a few key traits can generate realistic plant communities and how entropy maximization can identify the most probable outcomes of community dynamics in space- and time-varying environments. Finally, we present a roadmap indicating how these principles could be combined in a new generation of models with stronger theoretical foundations and an improved capacity to predict complex vegetation responses to environmental change.

Socioeconomic Aspects of the Forests in Portugal: Recent Evolution and Perspectives of Sustainability of the Resource

Portuguese forests have always played an essential role in the socioeconomic development of national rural areas, but also in several forest-based industrial sectors, such as the cork, pulp and paper, and wood panels industries. In addition to these dominant sectors, there are also several other uses for forest timber, such as being the major raw materials to the production of furniture or devoted to the growing biomass pellets production industry. This review article presents the evolution of the forest industrial sector throughout the recent past, and its impact on the development of the rural environment, from a socioeconomic perspective, namely concerning the jobs and value-added creation, as well as the importance of the forest in national industrial development. It shows the importance of sustainable forest management for the development of the rural environment, as an essential sector for the creation of wealth and for the establishment of populations in the interior regions of the country.

Resilience of tropical tree cover: The roles of climate, fire, and herbivory

Fires and herbivores shape tropical vegetation structure, but their effects on the stability of tree cover in different climates remain elusive. Here, we integrate empirical and theoretical approaches to determine the effects of climate on fire- and herbivore-driven forest-savanna shifts. We analyzed time series of remotely sensed tree cover and fire observations with estimates of herbivore pressure across the tropics to quantify the fire-tree cover and herbivore-tree cover feedbacks along climatic gradients. From these empirical results, we developed a spatially explicit, stochastic fire-vegetation model that accounts for herbivore pressure. We find emergent alternative stable states in tree cover with hysteresis across rainfall conditions. Whereas the herbivore-tree cover feedback can maintain low tree cover below 1,100 mm mean annual rainfall, the fire-tree cover feedback can maintain low tree cover at higher rainfall levels. Interestingly, the rainfall range where fire-driven alternative vegetation states can be found depends strongly on rainfall variability. Both higher seasonal and interannual variability in rainfall increase fire frequency, but only seasonality expands the distribution of fire-maintained savannas into wetter climates. The strength of the fire-tree cover feedback depends on the spatial configuration of tree cover: Landscapes with clustered low tree-cover areas are more susceptible to cross a tipping point of fire-driven forest loss than landscapes with scattered deforested patches. Our study shows how feedbacks involving fire, herbivores, and the spatial structure of tree cover explain the resilience of tree cover across climates.

Wildfires, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity in Tropical Dry Forest in India

This review is intended to contribute to the understanding of the interlinkage between wildfire in India's tropical dry forest (TDF) and selected ecosystem services (ES), namely forest provisioning and water regulating services, as well as biodiversity. TDF covers approximately 146,000 km(2) (4.4%) of India, whereas according to the MODIS fire product about 2200 km(2) (1.4%) burns per year. As studies on wildfire effects upon ESs and biodiversity in Indian TDFs are rare we partly transferred findings from other (dry) forest areas to the environmental situation in India. In India (intentionally lit) wildfires have a very important connection to local livelihoods and the availability of non-wood forest products. Very important adverse long-term effects are the deterioration of forest ecosystems and soil degradation. The potential for TDF to regulate hydrological cycles is expected to be greater in the absence of fire than with it. A general judgment on the effect of fire on biodiversity is difficult as it depends on the community and species involved but a loss of biodiversity under regular burnings is apparent. Consequently, forest managers need sound knowledge regarding the interplay of wildfires and ecosystem behavior in general and more specific knowledge regarding the effects on taxa being considered for conservation efforts. Generally, much more research is needed to understand the trade-offs between the short-term benefits gained from forest provisioning services and long-term adverse effects.

Disentangling the relative effects of bushmeat availability on human nutrition in central Africa

We studied links between human malnutrition and wild meat availability within the Rainforest Biotic Zone in central Africa. We distinguished two distinct hunted mammalian diversity distributions, one in the rainforest areas (Deep Rainforest Diversity, DRD) containing taxa of lower hunting sustainability, the other in the northern rainforest-savanna mosaic, with species of greater hunting potential (Marginal Rainforest Diversity, MRD). Wild meat availability, assessed by standing crop mammalian biomass, was greater in MRD than in DRD areas. Predicted bushmeat extraction was also higher in MRD areas. Despite this, stunting of children, a measure of human malnutrition, was greater in MRD areas. Structural equation modeling identified that, in MRD areas, mammal diversity fell away from urban areas, but proximity to these positively influenced higher stunting incidence. In DRD areas, remoteness and distance from dense human settlements and infrastructures explained lower stunting levels. Moreover, stunting was higher away from protected areas. Our results suggest that in MRD areas, forest wildlife rational use for better human nutrition is possible. By contrast, the relatively low human populations in DRD areas currently offer abundant opportunities for the continued protection of more vulnerable mammals and allow dietary needs of local populations to be met.

A framework for multi-scale modelling

We review a methodology to design, implement and execute multi-scale and multi-science numerical simulations. We identify important ingredients of multi-scale modelling and give a precise definition of them. Our framework assumes that a multi-scale model can be formulated in terms of a collection of coupled single-scale submodels. With concepts such as the scale separation map, the generic submodel execution loop (SEL) and the coupling templates, one can define a multi-scale modelling language which is a bridge between the application design and the computer implementation. Our approach has been successfully applied to an increasing number of applications from different fields of science and technology.

Integrating theoretical climate and fire effects on savanna and forest systems

The role of fire and climate in determining savanna and forest distributions requires comprehensive theoretical reevaluation. Empirical studies show that climate constrains maximum tree cover and that fire feedbacks can reduce tree cover substantially, but neither the stability nor the dynamics of these systems are well understood. A theoretical integration of rainfall effects with fire processes in particular is lacking. We use simple, well-supported assumptions about the percolation dynamics of fire spread and the demographic effects of climate and fire on trees to build a dynamic model examining the stability of tree cover in savannas and forests. Fire results in the potential for one or possibly two stable equilibria, while the effects of increasing rainfall on tree demography result in (discontinuous) increases in tree cover and in forest tree dominance. As rainfall increases, the system moves from (1) stable low tree cover to (2) bistability of low and high tree cover to (3) stable high tree cover. Thus, theory suggests that tree cover uniquely determined by climate at low and high rainfall but determined by fire feedbacks at intermediate rainfall-as empirical studies suggest-may be a universal feature of systems where fire has strong effects on tree demography.

Tree cover in sub-Saharan Africa: rainfall and fire constrain forest and savanna as alternative stable states

Savannas are known as ecosystems with tree cover below climate-defined equilibrium values. However, a predictive framework for understanding constraints on tree cover is lacking. We present (a) a spatially extensive analysis of tree cover and fire distribution in sub-Saharan Africa, and (b) a model, based on empirical results, demonstrating that savanna and forest may be alternative stable states in parts of Africa, with implications for understanding savanna distributions. Tree cover does not increase continuously with rainfall, but rather is constrained to low (<50%, "savanna") or high tree cover (>75%, "forest"). Intermediate tree cover rarely occurs. Fire, which prevents trees from establishing, differentiates high and low tree cover, especially in areas with rainfall between 1000 mm and 2000 mm. Fire is less important at low rainfall (<1000 mm), where rainfall limits tree cover, and at high rainfall (>2000 mm), where fire is rare. This pattern suggests that complex interactions between climate and disturbance produce emergent alternative states in tree cover. The relationship between tree cover and fire was incorporated into a dynamic model including grass, savanna tree saplings, and savanna trees. Only recruitment from sapling to adult tree varied depending on the amount of grass in the system. Based on our empirical analysis and previous work, fires spread only at tree cover of 40% or less, producing a sigmoidal fire probability distribution as a function of grass cover and therefore a sigmoidal sapling to tree recruitment function. This model demonstrates that, given relatively conservative and empirically supported assumptions about the establishment of trees in savannas, alternative stable states for the same set of environmental conditions (i.e., model parameters) are possible via a fire feedback mechanism. Integrating alternative stable state dynamics into models of biome distributions could improve our ability to predict changes in biome distributions and in carbon storage under climate and global change scenarios.

Spatial-temporal distribution of fire-protected savanna physiognomies in Southeastern Brazil

The analysis of the influence of edaphic finer textures, as a facilitating factor for the expansion of forest formations in the absence of fire, was possible thanks to rare characteristics found in a savanna fragment located in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. The total suppression of fire for over four decades, and the occurrence of two savanna physiognomies, cerrado sensu stricto and cerradão, allowed the conduction of this study based on the hypothesis that cerradão, a physiognomy of forest aspect consisting of fire-sensitive tree and shrubs species, is favored by fire absence and higher soil hydric retention capacity. Edaphic samples were collected from a regular grid of 200 m² for the production of isopletic maps of the distribution of clay, fine sand, coarse sand and silt edaphic textures by the geostatistic method of ordinary kriging. Changes in the areas occupied by both savanna physiognomies, defined on the basis of aerial photographs taken over a period of 43 years, were assessed through mean variation rates. Besides corroborating the hypothesis of edaphic hydric retention as a facilitating factor for the expansion of forest physiognomies in savanna areas, we were able to infer the positive influence of higher precipitation on the increase in cerradão expansion rates.

Contribution to the discussions on the origin of the cerrado biome: Brazilian savanna

Theories that attempt to explain the origin of the cerrado biome are mostly based on the isolated action of three major factors: climate, fire and soil. Another factor that has been mentioned is that of human interference. We hypothesise that the evolutionary origin of this biome resulted from the complex interaction of climate, fire and soil, with climate being the triggering agent of this assumed interaction. Fire, as well as acid and dystrophic soils, would be factors involved in the selection of savanna species throughout climatic events, during the Tertiary and the Quaternary, e.g. Pliocene and Pleistocene. The genesis of the physiognomies that would give rise to cerrado sensu lato, rather than forest formations, could have occurred due to the strong pressure exerted by the reduction in water availability, and the selection of the species adapted to the new conditions imposed by the environment. The characteristics of cerrado sensu lato soil, originated from edaphic impoverishment caused by lixiviation and successive past fires, would remain, even after hydric availability increased following the Pleistocene glaciations.

Colonization processes and the maintenance of genetic diversity: insights from a pioneer rainforest tree, Aucoumea klaineana

Despite recurrent episodes of range expansion and contraction, forest trees often harbour high genetic diversity. Studies of temperate forest trees suggest that prolonged juvenile phase and high pollen flow are the main factors limiting founder effects. Here, we studied the local colonization process of a pioneer rainforest tree in central Africa, Aucoumea klaineana. We identified 87% of parents among trees up to 20-25 years old and could thus compare direct parentage structure data with classical population genetics estimators. In this species, genetic diversity was maintained during colonization. The absence of founder effects was explained by (i) local random mating and (ii) local recruitment, as we showed that 75% of the trees in the close neighbourhood participated in the recruitment of new saplings. Long-distance pollen flow contributed little to genetic diversity: pollen and seed dispersal was mainly within stand (128 and 118 m, respectively). Spatial genetic structure was explained by aggregated seed dispersal rather than by mother-offspring proximity as assumed in classical isolation-by-distance models. Hence, A. klaineana presents a genetic diversity pattern typical of forest trees but does not follow the classical rules by which this diversity is generally achieved. We suggest that while high local genetic variability is of general importance to forest tree survival, the proximate mechanisms by which it is achieved may follow very different scenarios.

VecGCA: A Vector-Based Geographic Cellular Automata Model Allowing Geometric Transformations of Objects

Cellular automata (CA) can reproduce global patterns and behavior from local interactions of cells and they are used increasingly to simulate complex natural and human systems. Among their attributes are their computational simplicity and their explicit representation of space and time. However, the classic definition of CA limits their application to problems that involve a discrete space, and similar rules and neighborhoods for all cells. In addition, the standard raster-based CA model is sensitive to spatial scale. This paper presents a new vector-based geographic cellular automata model, called the VecGCA model, which defines space as a collection of irregular geographic objects. Each object has a geometric representation (a polygon) that evolves through time according to a transition function that depends on the influence of neighboring polygons. In this model, the neighborhood is defined as the region of influence on each geographic object, and the neighbors are all geographic objects located within the region of influence. An innovative aspect of the VecGCA model is that the procedure allows geometric transformation of objects. The area of a polygon (representing an object) is reduced in the region that is nearest to the neighbor that exerts an influence on it, and the area of that neighbor is increased accordingly. The proposed model was tested with real data and compared with a raster-based CA model to simulate land-use changes in an agroforested area in southern Quebec, Canada. The model was validated using two land-use maps, produced from satellite Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery, which were acquired in 1999 and 2002. The results obtained show that VecGCA can represent well the dynamics in the study area through an adequate evolution of the geometry of the geographic objects which are independent of the cell size, whereas, to generate similar outcomes in the raster-based CA model, a sensitivity analysis must be conducted to determine which cell size is needed. The geometric transformation procedure introduced in the VecGCA model executes the change of shape of a geographic object by changing its state in a portion of its surface, allowing a more realistic representation of the evolution of the landscape.

A Probabilistic Analysis of Fire‐Induced Tree‐Grass Coexistence in Savannas

Fires play an important role in determining the composition and structure of vegetation in semiarid ecosystems. The study of the interactions between fire and vegetation requires a stochastic approach because of the random and unpredictable nature of fire occurrences. To this end, this article develops a minimalist probabilistic framework to investigate the impact of intermittent fire occurrences on the temporal dynamics of vegetation. This framework is used to analyze the emergence of statistically stable conditions favorable to tree-grass coexistence in savannas. It is found that these conditions can be induced and stabilized by the stochastic fire regime. A decrease in fire frequency leads to bush encroachment, while more frequent and intense fires favor savanna-to-grassland conversions. The positive feedback between fires and vegetation can convert states of tree-grass coexistence in semiarid savannas into bistable conditions, with both woodland and grassland as possible, though mutually exclusive, stable states of the system.

Emergent properties from organisms to ecosystems: towards a realistic approach

More realistic approaches are needed to understand the complexity of ecological systems. Emergent properties of real systems can be used as a basis for a new, neither reductionist nor holistic, approach. Three systems, termed here BUBBLEs, WAVEs and CRYSTALs, have been identified as exhibiting emergent properties. They are non-hierarchical assemblages of individual components, with amplification and connectedness being two main principles that govern their build-up, maintenance and mutual relationships. Examples from various fields of biological and ecological science are referred to, ranging from individual organisms to landscapes.