A process-based model of forest ecosystems driven by meteorology

Simulating tree growth response to climate change in structurally diverse oak and beech forests

This study aimed to simulate oak and beech forest growth under various scenarios of climate change and to evaluate how the forest response depends on site properties and particularly on stand characteristics using the individual process-based model HETEROFOR. First, this model was evaluated on a wide range of site conditions. We used data from 36 long-term forest monitoring plots to initialize, calibrate, and evaluate HETEROFOR. This evaluation showed that HETEROFOR predicts individual tree radial growth and height increment reasonably well under different growing conditions when evaluated on independent sites. In our simulations under constant CO₂ concentration ([CO₂]_cst) for the 2071-2100 period, climate change induced a moderate net primary production (NPP) gain in continental and mountainous zones and no change in the oceanic zone. The NPP changes were negatively affected by air temperature during the vegetation period and by the annual rainfall decrease. To a lower extent, they were influenced by soil extractable water reserve and stand characteristics. These NPP changes were positively affected by longer vegetation periods and negatively by drought for beech and larger autotrophic respiration costs for oak. For both species, the NPP gain was much larger with rising CO₂ concentration ([CO₂]_var) mainly due to the CO₂ fertilisation effect. Even if the species composition and structure had a limited influence on the forest response to climate change, they explained a large part of the NPP variability (44% and 34% for [CO₂]_cst and [CO₂]_var, respectively) compared to the climate change scenario (5% and 29%) and the inter-annual climate variability (20% and 16%). This gives the forester the possibility to act on the productivity of broadleaved forests and prepare them for possible adverse effects of climate change by reinforcing their resilience.

Assessment of ozone risk to Central European forests: Time series indicates perennial exceedance of ozone critical levels

In this study, the stomatal ozone (O₃) fluxes were investigated at five low-elevation forest sites in Western Germany (Rhineland Palatinate) over the time period 1998-2019. The Phytotoxic Ozone Dose with an hourly threshold of uptake (Y), to represent the detoxification capacity of trees (POD1 in mmol m^-2 per leaf area, with Y = 1 nmol O₃ m^-2 s^-1), and the number of exceedances of the O₃ critical level of 5.2 mmol O₃ m^-2 per leaf area for European beech and 9.2 mmol O₃ m^-2 per leaf area for Norway spruce were calculated by using the DO₃SE model. A Principal Component Analysis revealed strong correlations between daily O₃ concentrations, daytime O₃ (for hours with global radiation exceeding 50 W m^-2), POD1, global radiation, vapor pressure deficit and air temperature. Moreover, a significant correlation was obtained between POD1 and soil water content (SWC) at all sites (r = 0.51-0.74). The Random Forests Analysis confirmed that the SWC is the most important predictor of stomatal O₃ fluxes. The soil water supply is very important for POD1 estimation, because drought decreases stomatal conductance, leading to a reduction of transpiration, as well as to lower O₃ uptake through stomata. Between 1998 and 2019, the drier and warmer climate induced a soil drought (on average, SWC - 0.15 % per year) leading to lower stomatal O₃ uptake by forests (- 0.36 mmol O₃ m^-2 per year). Hence, during growing seasons with sufficient water supply and often lower O₃ levels compared to hot and dry periods, forests are at higher O₃ risk than during hot and dry periods when the drought stress is more significant than O₃ stress despite relatively higher O₃ levels. Irrespective of these differences in O₃ uptake between relatively cool and humid as compared to relatively hot and dry years in the study region, the Critical Level for O₃ was exceeded in late spring/early summer (May/June) during all 22 years. Risk assessment for the protection of European forests, which is urgently needed due to the forests current critical state after several successive years of drought and exceedance of the O₃ critical level in large areas of Europe, should therefore become flux-based to account for the inter-twined effects of drought and O₃ on the physiology and health of forest trees in the region. For stomatal O₃ fluxes estimation, a better soil water and leaf parameterization is needed e.g., by taking into account both O₃- and drought-induced effects.

Plant respiration: Controlled by photosynthesis or biomass?

Two simplifying hypotheses have been proposed for whole-plant respiration. One links respiration to photosynthesis; the other to biomass. Using a first-principles carbon balance model with a prescribed live woody biomass turnover, applied at a forest research site where multidecadal measurements are available for comparison, we show that if turnover is fast the accumulation of respiring biomass is low and respiration depends primarily on photosynthesis; while if turnover is slow the accumulation of respiring biomass is high and respiration depends primarily on biomass. But the first scenario is inconsistent with evidence for substantial carry-over of fixed carbon between years, while the second implies far too great an increase in respiration during stand development-leading to depleted carbohydrate reserves and an unrealistically high mortality risk. These two mutually incompatible hypotheses are thus both incorrect. Respiration is not linearly related either to photosynthesis or to biomass, but it is more strongly controlled by recent photosynthates (and reserve availability) than by total biomass.

The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes

Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth's climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased disturbance activity in the long run (-10.1%), mainly by reducing the host trees available for bark beetles. Climate change and the resulting future forest dynamics significantly reduced the climate regulation function of the landscape, increasing radiative forcing by up to +10.2% on average over 200 yr. Overall, radiative forcing was most strongly driven by carbon exchange. We conclude that future changes in forest dynamics can cause amplifying climate feedbacks from temperate forest ecosystems.

Understanding of coupled terrestrial carbon, nitrogen and water dynamics-an overview

Coupled terrestrial carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and hydrological processes play a crucial role in the climate system, providing both positive and negative feedbacks to climate change. In this review we summarize published research results to gain an increased understanding of the dynamics between vegetation and atmosphere processes. A variety of methods, including monitoring (e.g., eddy covariance flux tower, remote sensing, etc.) and modeling (i.e., ecosystem, hydrology and atmospheric inversion modeling) the terrestrial carbon and water budgeting, are evaluated and compared. We highlight two major research areas where additional research could be focused: (i) Conceptually, the hydrological and biogeochemical processes are closely linked, however, the coupling processes between terrestrial C, N and hydrological processes are far from well understood; and (ii) there are significant uncertainties in estimates of the components of the C balance, especially at landscape and regional scales. To address these two questions, a synthetic research framework is needed which includes both bottom-up and top-down approaches integrating scalable (footprint and ecosystem) models and a spatially nested hierarchy of observations which include multispectral remote sensing, inventories, existing regional clusters of eddy-covariance flux towers and CO(2) mixing ratio towers and chambers.