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Rocha EC, Silva J, Silva DP, Lemos FG, de Castro MC. Distribution of the greater naked-tailed armadillo Cabassous tatouay (Desmarest, 1804) in South America, with new records and species distribution modeling. STUDIES ON NEOTROPICAL FAUNA AND ENVIRONMENT 2022. [DOI: 10.1080/01650521.2022.2085018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Ednaldo Cândido Rocha
- Universidade Estadual de Goiás, Unidade Universitária de Ipameri, Instituto de Ciências Agrárias, Ipameri, Brasil
| | - Jhefferson Silva
- Departamento de Ciências Biológicas, Instituto Federal Goiano, Campus Urutaí, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Conservação de Recursos Naturais do Cerrado, Urutaí, Brasil
| | - Daniel Paiva Silva
- Departamento de Ciências Biológicas, Instituto Federal Goiano, Campus Urutaí, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Conservação de Recursos Naturais do Cerrado, Urutaí, Brasil
| | - Frederico Gemesio Lemos
- Departamento de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Catalão, Unidade Acadêmica de Biotecnologia, Catalão, Brasil
- Programa de Conservação Mamíferos do Cerrado, Cumari, Brasil
| | - Mariela Cordeiro de Castro
- Departamento de Ciências Biológicas, Instituto Federal Goiano, Campus Urutaí, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Conservação de Recursos Naturais do Cerrado, Urutaí, Brasil
- Departamento de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Catalão, Unidade Acadêmica de Biotecnologia, Catalão, Brasil
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Piironen A, Piironen J, Laaksonen T. Predicting spatio‐temporal distributions of migratory populations using Gaussian process modelling. J Appl Ecol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.14127] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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Zhang Z, Mammola S, Zhang H. Does weighting presence records improve the performance of species distribution models? A test using fish larval stages in the Yangtze Estuary. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 741:140393. [PMID: 32610238 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140393] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2020] [Revised: 05/29/2020] [Accepted: 06/19/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
To obtain realistic forecasts of the impacts of climate change on species habitat suitability, novel approaches based on species distribution models (SDMs) are being developed and scrutinized. We argue here that, when dealing with data from long-term monitoring programmes, incorporating a temporal weight on the occurrence points may result in a more realistic prediction of a species' potential distribution. Using larval fish presence records collected from 1999 to 2013 in the Yangtze Estuary, China, we compared the performance of ensembles of standard SDMs versus SDMs constructed with weighted time-series presence records in predicting the present and future distributions of the larval stages of two dominant fish. The results of the ensemble SDMs showed that weighted presence records can significantly improve SDM performance, as measured through standard validation metrics. The SDM projections suggest that suitable habitat for both species will decrease under future climate scenarios, with one species (Stolephorus commersonnii) predicted to be more susceptible to climate change than the other (Engraulis japonicus). In addition to range contraction, model projections suggest that the future habitats of both species will shift northward-an implication of climate change that should be considered in future management and conservation strategies for the Yangtze Estuary.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhixin Zhang
- Graduate School of Marine Science and Technology, Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, Konan, Minato, Tokyo 1088477, Japan.
| | - Stefano Mammola
- Molecular Ecology Group (MEG), Water Research Institute National Research Council of Italy (CNR-IRSA), Largo Tonolli 50, 28922 Verbania Pallanza, Italy
| | - Hui Zhang
- CAS Key Laboratory of Marine Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China; Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China; Laboratory for Marine Ecology and Environmental Science, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China.
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5
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Leal LC, Silva DP, Peixoto PE. When the company does not matter: High-quality ant seed-disperser does not drive the spatial distribution of large-seeded myrmecochorous plants. AUSTRAL ECOL 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/aec.12847] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Laura C. Leal
- Departamento de Ecologia e Biologia Evolutiva; Universidade Federal de São Paulo; Rua Conceição, 215, 09972-270 Diadema Brazil
| | - Daniel Paiva Silva
- COBIMA Lab; Departamento de Ciências Biológicas; Instituto Federal Goiano; Urutaí Goiás Brazil
| | - Paulo E.C. Peixoto
- Departamento de Genética; Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; Ecologia e Evolução Belo Horizonte Brazil
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Zhang Z, Mammola S, Xian W, Zhang H. Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of ichthyoplankton in the Yangtze Estuary, China. DIVERS DISTRIB 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Zhixin Zhang
- Graduate School of Marine Science and Technology Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology Minato Tokyo Japan
| | - Stefano Mammola
- Department of Life Sciences and Systems Biology University of Turin Turin Italy
- LIBRe – Laboratory for Integrative Biodiversity Research Finnish Museum of Natural History University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland
| | - Weiwei Xian
- CAS Key Laboratory of Marine Ecology and Environmental Sciences Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences Qingdao China
- Laboratory for Marine Ecology and Environmental Science Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology Qingdao China
- Center for Ocean Mega‐Science Chinese Academy of Sciences Qingdao China
| | - Hui Zhang
- CAS Key Laboratory of Marine Ecology and Environmental Sciences Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences Qingdao China
- Laboratory for Marine Ecology and Environmental Science Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology Qingdao China
- Center for Ocean Mega‐Science Chinese Academy of Sciences Qingdao China
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Kotta J, Vanhatalo J, Jänes H, Orav-Kotta H, Rugiu L, Jormalainen V, Bobsien I, Viitasalo M, Virtanen E, Sandman AN, Isaeus M, Leidenberger S, Jonsson PR, Johannesson K. Integrating experimental and distribution data to predict future species patterns. Sci Rep 2019; 9:1821. [PMID: 30755688 PMCID: PMC6372580 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-38416-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2018] [Accepted: 12/28/2018] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Predictive species distribution models are mostly based on statistical dependence between environmental and distributional data and therefore may fail to account for physiological limits and biological interactions that are fundamental when modelling species distributions under future climate conditions. Here, we developed a state-of-the-art method integrating biological theory with survey and experimental data in a way that allows us to explicitly model both physical tolerance limits of species and inherent natural variability in regional conditions and thereby improve the reliability of species distribution predictions under future climate conditions. By using a macroalga-herbivore association (Fucus vesiculosus - Idotea balthica) as a case study, we illustrated how salinity reduction and temperature increase under future climate conditions may significantly reduce the occurrence and biomass of these important coastal species. Moreover, we showed that the reduction of herbivore occurrence is linked to reduction of their host macroalgae. Spatial predictive modelling and experimental biology have been traditionally seen as separate fields but stronger interlinkages between these disciplines can improve species distribution projections under climate change. Experiments enable qualitative prior knowledge to be defined and identify cause-effect relationships, and thereby better foresee alterations in ecosystem structure and functioning under future climate conditions that are not necessarily seen in projections based on non-causal statistical relationships alone.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonne Kotta
- Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Mäealuse 14, EE-12618, Tallinn, Estonia.
| | - Jarno Vanhatalo
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics and Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Program, University of Helsinki, FIN-00014, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Holger Jänes
- Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Mäealuse 14, EE-12618, Tallinn, Estonia
- Centre for Integrative Ecology, Deakin University, 221 Burwood Hwy, Melbourne, Victoria, 3125, Australia
| | - Helen Orav-Kotta
- Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Mäealuse 14, EE-12618, Tallinn, Estonia
| | - Luca Rugiu
- Department of Biology, University of Turku, FIN-20014, Turku, Finland
| | - Veijo Jormalainen
- Department of Biology, University of Turku, FIN-20014, Turku, Finland
| | - Ivo Bobsien
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, 24105, Kiel, Germany
| | | | - Elina Virtanen
- Finnish Environment Institute, FIN-00251, Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - Martin Isaeus
- AquaBiota Water Research, Löjtnantsgatan 25, SE-11550, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Sonja Leidenberger
- Ecological Modelling Group, School of Bioscience, University of Skövde, SE-54128, Skövde, Sweden
| | - Per R Jonsson
- Department of Marine Sciences - Tjärnö, University of Gothenburg, Tjärnö, SE-45296, Strömstad, Sweden
| | - Kerstin Johannesson
- Department of Marine Sciences - Tjärnö, University of Gothenburg, Tjärnö, SE-45296, Strömstad, Sweden
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Mäkinen J, Vanhatalo J. Hierarchical Bayesian model reveals the distributional shifts of Arctic marine mammals. DIVERS DISTRIB 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12776] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/22/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Jussi Mäkinen
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Program; Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences; University of Helsinki; Helsinki Finland
| | - Jarno Vanhatalo
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Program; Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences; University of Helsinki; Helsinki Finland
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics; Faculty of Science; University of Helsinki; Helsinki Finland
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Golding N, Purse BV. Fast and flexible Bayesian species distribution modelling using Gaussian processes. Methods Ecol Evol 2016. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.12523] [Citation(s) in RCA: 65] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Nick Golding
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Crowmarsh Gifford Wallingford UK OX10 8BB UK
- Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics University of Oxford Oxford OX3 7BN UK
| | - Bethan V. Purse
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Crowmarsh Gifford Wallingford UK OX10 8BB UK
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