Projected habitat preferences of commercial fish under different scenarios of climate change

The challenges of commercial species with the threats of climate change make it necessary to predict the changes in the distributional shifts and habitat preferences of the species under possible future scenarios. We aim to demonstrate how future climatic changes will affect the habitat suitability of three species of commercial fish using the predictive technique MaxEnt. The dataset used to extract geographical records included OBIS (54%), GBIF (1%), and literature (45%). The output of the model indicated accurate projections of MaxEnt (AUC above 0.9). Temperature was the main descriptor responsible for the main effects on the distribution of commercial fish. With increasing RCP from 2.5 to 8.5, the species would prefer saltier, higher temperatures and deeper waters in the future. We observed different percentages of suitable habitats between species during RCPs showing distinct sensitivity of each fish in facing climate changes. Negative effects from climate change on the distribution patterns of commercial fish were predicted to lead to varying degrees of reduction and changes of suitable habitats and movement of species towards higher latitudes. The finding emphasizes to implement adaptive management measures to preserve the stocks of these commercial fish considering that the intensification of the effects of climate change on subtropical areas and overexploited species is predicted.

Arctic puzzle: Pioneering a northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) habitat model in Disko Bay, West Greenland

Recent advancements in spatial modelling leverage remote sensing data and statistical species-environment relationships to forecast the distribution of a specific species. Our study focuses on Disko Bay in West Greenland, recognized as a significant marine biodiversity hotspot in the region. We conducted comprehensive analyses using multiple datasets spanning from 2010 to 2019, incorporating shrimp and fish surveys, commercial shrimp fishery catches, high-resolution (25 × 25 m) multibeam bathymetry and backscatter data along with a medium-resolution (200 × 200 m) bathymetric model, measured and modelled oceanographic data, and satellite chlorophyll data. Through multivariate regression analysis, we tested the significance of various physical factors (seafloor depth, sediment class, bottom water temperature, bottom water salinity, bottom current velocity, space, and time), biological factors (chlorophyll a, Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides)), and anthropogenic impact (shrimp fishery; standardized catch per unit effort) on the density of northern shrimp in the area. Our results indicate a significant association between northern shrimp density, seafloor depth, and sediment class, explaining 36 % of the variation in shrimp density. Subsequently, we developed a high-resolution (optimized) spatial linear mixed-effect model to map the distribution of northern shrimp across Disko Bay, representing the first model of its kind developed for an Arctic area. The optimal habitat for northern shrimp is characterized by medium-deep waters (approximately 150-350 m), turbulent conditions, and mixed sediments, predominantly located in the northern and southern regions of Disko Bay. Notably, the northern region hosts a relatively diverse benthic community, with northern shrimp and sponges as the primary contributors of epibenthic biomass. This novel high-resolution model significantly enhances our understanding of the physical drivers and detailed spatial patterns influencing the distribution of northern shrimp in the Arctic.

Evaluating the mitochondrial genomic diversity, global distribution and niche overlap of two invasive Phthorimaea species

This study sought to evaluate the genetic diversity of two invasive Phthorimaea species (Phthorimaea operculella Zeller and Phthorimaea absoluta Meyrick), and identify potential niche overlap of both species. The complete mitogenomes of P. operculella and P. absoluta were sequenced and compared. Furthermore, the diversity within the family Gelechiidae was assessed. Subsequently, two species distribution models (MaxEnt and BIOCLIM) were used to identify niche overlaps of both species globally. The complete mitogenomes of both species were similar in size and structure, with a pairwise identity of 92.3%. The models showed a niche overlap of both species and revealed areas of marginal to high suitability for both pests in countries where they have not been reported. Therefore, these results present a compelling case for a deeper genetic and ecological investigation of the Gelechiidae family for taxonomic harmonization, an early warning for surveillance, stricter phytosanitary considerations and preventive management against the spread of the pests.

Mesoscale activity drives the habitat suitability of yellowfin tuna in the Gulf of Mexico

Yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, represents an important component of commercial and recreational fisheries in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). We investigated the influence of environmental conditions on the spatiotemporal distribution of yellowfin tuna using fisheries' catch data spanning 2012-2019 within Mexican waters. We implemented hierarchical Bayesian regression models with spatial and temporal random effects and fixed effects of several environmental covariates to predict habitat suitability (HS) for the species. The best model included spatial and interannual anomalies of the absolute dynamic topography of the ocean surface (ADTSA and ADTIA, respectively), bottom depth, and a seasonal cyclical random effect. High catches occurred mainly towards anticyclonic features at bottom depths > 1000 m. The spatial extent of HS was higher in years with positive ADTIA, which implies more anticyclonic activity. The highest values of HS (> 0.7) generally occurred at positive ADTSA in oceanic waters of the central and northern GoM. However, high HS values (> 0.6) were observed in the southern GoM, in waters with cyclonic activity during summer. Our results highlight the importance of mesoscale features for the spatiotemporal distribution of yellowfin tunas and could help to develop dynamic fisheries management strategies in Mexico and the U.S. for this valuable resource.

Spatial habitat suitability prediction of essential oil wild plants on Indonesia's degraded lands

Background

Essential oils are natural products of aromatic plants with numerous uses. Essential oils have been traded worldwide and utilized in various industries. Indonesia is the sixth largest essential oil producing country, but land degradation is a risk to the continuing extraction and utilization of natural products. Production of essential oil plants on degraded lands is a potential strategy to mitigate this risk. This study aimed to identify degraded lands in Indonesia that could be suitable habitats for five wild native essential oil producing plants, namely Acronychia pedunculata (L.) Miq., Baeckea frutescens L., Cynometra cauliflora L., Magnolia montana (Blume) Figlar, and Magnolia sumatrana var. glauca (Blume) Figlar & Noot using various species distribution models.

Methods

The habitat suitability of these species was predicted by comparing ten species distribution models, including Bioclim, classification and regression trees (CART), flexible discriminant analysis (FDA), Maxlike, boosted regression trees (BRT), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), generalized linear models (GLM), Ranger, support vector machine (SVM), and Random Forests (RF). Bioclimatic, topographic and soil variables were used as the predictors of the model habitat suitability. The models were evaluated according to their AUC and TSS metrics. Model selection was based on ranking performance. The total suitable area for five native essential oil producing plants in Indonesia's degraded lands was derived by overlaying the models with degraded land locations.

Results

The habitat suitability model for these species was well predicted with an AUC value >0.8 and a TSS value >0.7. The most important predictor variables affecting the habitat suitability of these species are mean temperature of wettest quarter, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of warmest quarter, precipitation of coldest quarter, cation exchange capacity, nitrogen, sand, and soil organic carbon. C. cauliflora has the largest predicted suitable area, followed by M. montana, B. frutescens, M. sumatrana var. glauca, and A. pedunculata. The overlapping area between predictive habitat suitability and degraded lands indicates that the majority of degraded lands in Indonesia's forest areas are suitable for those species.

Conclusion

The degraded lands predicted as suitable habitats for five native essential oil producing plants were widely spread throughout Indonesia, mostly in its main islands. These findings can be used by the Indonesian Government for evaluating policies for degraded land utilization and restorations that can enhance the lands' productivity.

An algorithm to generate 2D bathymetry of an Alpine river for habitat suitability assessment

Here we present an original approach to generate 2D high detail riverbed based on a drone photogrammetric survey, and RTK bathymetry measurements for Mera river in the Italian Alps. The aim is to better represent macro-roughness and riverbed structure of the river, also extending it to an ungauged area. Specifically, we apply a step-by-step approach. I) Depth and average slope of the riverbed were calculated from bathymetry data. II) Thus, a trapezoidal channel with constant slope and variable width was defined using the drone images. III) Riffle-pool sequence was assessed as a function of river width and applied to the generated channel. IV) Finally, the semi-random Perlin Noise was added to recreate riverbed irregularities in the natural stream. HEC-RAS 2D hydraulic software was then implemented to assess spatialized water depth and velocity. The proposed methodology could be quite relevant in river hydraulics to decouple roughness coefficient from water submergence, and in Physical Habitat Simulation Model (PHABSIM), where the dependency of the output is not linear with hydraulic parameters (i.e. water depth and velocity). Indeed, we apply PHABSIM for a case study of a stretch of the river and results are compared with a previous environmental study for Mera river.

Muscling mussels: Understanding the invasive potential of the South American bivalve Mytella strigata (Hanley, 1843) in the Northern Indian Ocean

In past decades, non-native species invasion has emerged as one of the leading drivers of biodiversity loss in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems globally. In aquatic ecosystems, invasion by bivalve species has increased substantially due to their evolutionary resilience and adaptability. This study aimed to determine the habitat suitability of the South American bivalve Mytella strigata in the northern Indian Ocean using Species distribution modelling. The species occurrence and environmental data for model building were extracted from GBIF, Bio-ORACLE, The World Bank Data Catalogue and GMED. Pearson's correlation (<0.7) and Variance inflation factor (<10) analyses were used to select the environmental covariates. Individual models were built by combining the native range occurrence data of Mytella strigata with the bioclimatic data under the current climatic setting. Ten individual models were built and ensembled to create the final model using the biomod2 package. The variable importance score and the response curve plot were used to identify the most crucial variable and its influence on the models. Distance to port had the highest influence on predicting the distribution of Mytella strigata. The results indicated that the western coast of India as more susceptible to invasion. Our predictions indicate that the species has the potential to become highly invasive in the region, given the vast habitat suitability and documented introduction and presence of the species in the region. This research generated baseline information on the habitat suitability of M. strigata that will aid in managing and restricting its spread in the region. Considering the substantial impact of the species in other introduced ranges worldwide, immediate action should be initiated for the swift management of M. strigata from the Indian coast.

Incorporating adaptive genomic variation into predictive models for invasion risk assessment

Global climate change is expected to accelerate biological invasions, necessitating accurate risk forecasting and management strategies. However, current invasion risk assessments often overlook adaptive genomic variation, which plays a significant role in the persistence and expansion of invasive populations. Here we used Molgula manhattensis, a highly invasive ascidian, as a model to assess its invasion risks along Chinese coasts under climate change. Through population genomics analyses, we identified two genetic clusters, the north and south clusters, based on geographic distributions. To predict invasion risks, we employed the gradient forest and species distribution models to calculate genomic offset and species habitat suitability, respectively. These approaches yielded distinct predictions: the gradient forest model suggested a greater genomic offset to future climatic conditions for the north cluster (i.e., lower invasion risks), while the species distribution model indicated higher future habitat suitability for the same cluster (i.e, higher invasion risks). By integrating these models, we found that the south cluster exhibited minor genome-niche disruptions in the future, indicating higher invasion risks. Our study highlights the complementary roles of genomic offset and habitat suitability in assessing invasion risks under climate change. Moreover, incorporating adaptive genomic variation into predictive models can significantly enhance future invasion risk predictions and enable effective management strategies for biological invasions in the future.

Modelling climate change impacts on the spatial distribution of anthrax in Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

In Zimbabwe, anthrax is endemic with outbreaks being reported almost annually in livestock, wildlife, and humans over the past 40 years. Accurate modelling of its spatial distribution is key in formulating effective control strategies. In this study, an Ensemble Species Distribution Model was used to model the current and future distribution of anthrax occurrence in Zimbabwe.

METHODS

Bioclimatic variables derived from the Beijing Climate Centre Climate System Model were used to model the disease. Collinearity testing was conducted on the 19 bioclimatic variables and elevation to remove redundancy. Variables that had no collinearity were used for anthrax habitat suitability modelling. Two future climate change scenarios for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used. Model evaluation was done using true skill, Kappa statistics and receiver operating characteristics.

RESULTS

The results showed that under current bioclimatic conditions, eastern and western districts of Zimbabwe were modelled as highly suitable, central districts moderately suitable and southern parts marginally suitable for anthrax occurrence. Future predictions demonstrated that the suitable (8%) and highly suitable (7%) areas for anthrax occurrence would increase under RCP4.5 scenario. In contrast, a respective decrease (11%) and marginal increase (0.6%) of suitable and highly suitable areas for anthrax occurrence were predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. The percentage contribution of the predictors varied for the different scenarios; Bio6 and Bio18 for the current scenario, Bio2, Bio4 and Bio9 for the RCP4.5 and Bio3 and Bio15 for the RCP8.5 scenarios.

CONCLUSIONS

The study revealed that areas currently suitable for anthrax should be targeted for surveillance and prevention. The predicted future anthrax distribution can be used to guide and prioritise surveillance and control activities and optimise allocation of limited resources. In the marginally to moderately suitable areas, effective disease surveillance systems and awareness need to be put in place for early detection of outbreaks. Targeted vaccinations and other control measures including collaborative 'One Health' strategies need to be implemented in the predicted highly suitable areas. In the southern part where a high decrease in suitability was predicted, continued monitoring would be necessary to detect incursions early.

Simulation of mangrove suitable habitat in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Area under the background of climate change

Climate change has resulted in great influence on the geographical distribution of species. Mangrove forests are one of the most precious ecosystems on the planet, yet they are being threatened by the habitat destruction and degradation under the situation of global warming. Seeking suitable areas for planting mangroves to tackle climate change has been gradually popular in ecological restoration. In this study, we applied the Maximum Entropy algorithm to assess the contribution of environmental factors on mangrove distribution, simulated mangrove suitable habitat for present and future (scenario of SSP245-2070s), and used kernel density analysis for identifying priority of mangrove reserve construction. Results indicate that mean diurnal range and elevation made the highest contribution on mangrove distribution. At present, the mangrove habitat suitability along the western coast of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Area (GHMA) was the highest while that along the eastern coast was the lowest. By 2070s, mangrove suitable areas would show a decreasing trend under SSP245 scenario. High suitable areas (HSAs) would change fastest and shift to northeast in the same direction as dominant environmental factors. For further mangrove restoration, it is advisable to select sites with high suitability density in the future but low reclamation density at present as prior mangrove reserves, and these sites distribute along the northeastern and northwestern coast of Zhanjiang, Yangjiang and Jiangmen, the Pearl River Estuary and Honghai Bay of Shanwei. Meanwhile, regions with lower suitability density but higher reclamation density could be listed as secondary mangrove reserves.

Geospatial modelling of dry season habitats of the malaria vector, Anopheles funestus, in south-eastern Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Anopheles funestus is a major malaria vector in Eastern and Southern Africa and is currently the dominant malaria-transmitting vector in many parts of Tanzania. Previous research has identified its preference for specific aquatic habitats, especially those that persist in dry months. This observation suggests the potential for targeted control through precise habitat mapping and characterization. In this study, we investigated the influence of habitat characteristics, land cover and human population densities on An. funestus distribution during dry seasons. Based on the results, we developed a habitat suitability model for this vector species in south-eastern Tanzania.

METHODS

Eighteen villages in south-eastern Tanzania were surveyed during the dry season from September-December 2021. Water bodies were systematically inspected for mosquito larvae and characterized by their physico-chemical characteristics and surrounding environmental features. A generalized linear model was used to assess the presence of An. funestus larvae as a function of the physico-chemical characteristics, land use and human population densities. The results obtained from this model were used to generate spatially explicit predictions of habitat suitability in the study districts.

RESULTS

Of the 1466 aquatic habitats surveyed, 440 were positive for An. funestus, with river streams having the highest positivity (74%; n = 322) followed by ground pools (15%; n = 67). The final model had an 83% accuracy in predicting positive An. funestus habitats, with the most important characteristics being permanent waters, clear waters with or without vegetation or movement and shading over the habitats. There was also a positive association of An. funestus presence with forested areas and a negative association with built-up areas. Human population densities had no influence on An. funestus distribution.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study underscore the crucial role of both the specific habitat characteristics and key environmental factors, notably land cover, in the distribution of An. funestus. In this study area, An. funestus predominantly inhabits river streams and ground pools, with a preference for clear, perennial waters with shading. The strong positive association with more pristine environments with tree covers and the negative association with built-up areas underscore the importance of ecological transitions in vector distribution and malaria transmission risk. Such spatially explicit predictions could enable more precise interventions, particularly larval source management, to accelerate malaria control.

Potential geographical distribution of harmful algal blooms caused by the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia mikimotoi in the China Sea

The fish-killing dinoflagellate Karenia mikimotoi frequently blooms in China and poses a threat to food safety and human health. To better understand harmful algal blooms (HABs) caused by K. mikimotoi and predict the risk of HABs under climate change, the combined effect of nitrate and norfloxacin (NOR) on the growth of K. mikimotoi was tested. A growth model was used to test the effects of nutrients and pollutants on the carrying capacity of the unicellular algae. The carrying capacity increased with increasing concentrations of nitrate and NOR, reaching a maximum at 62.2 μmol L-1 of nitrate and 9.03 mg L-1 of NOR. The calculated carrying capacity of K. mikimotoi in the China Sea showed a declining trend from nearshore to offshore, with a value >30 × 106 cells L-1 in the estuary of the Changjiang River and Hangzhou Bay. The HAB index proposed in this study as a measurement of HAB risk was constructed using the carrying capacity and relative abundance from the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) model. The index showed that HABs caused by K. mikimotoi consecutively occurred in Zhejiang and Fujian coastal waters and predicted that they will continue until 2100, regardless of the greenhouse gas emission scenario. The center of the integrated area moved northward, with a range of 120-900 km. The HAB index integrates the characteristics of the carrying capacity and suitability of habitats, and expresses the information contained in the intensive and extensive variables that affect HAB occurrence. This index is a promising predictor of HAB risk in coastal waters.

Identifying conservation and restoration priorities for degraded coastal wetland vegetations: Integrating species distribution model and GeoDetector

The ongoing degradation of seagrass and seaweed is of global concern. Comprehending the spatial distribution of these wetland vegetation types and the threats they face becomes critical for effective conservation and restoration efforts. In this study, we combined a species distribution model and geographical detector to propose a novel framework for mapping the distribution and disturbance of degraded coastal wetland vegetation in sparsely recorded areas and identifying conservation and restoration priorities. Guangxi is a province in China known for its extensive coastal wetland vegetation. In our study of Guangxi, habitats suitable for two degraded vegetation types, i.e., seagrass and seaweed, were mapped using the maximum entropy model; 669.44 km2 of seagrass habitat and 929.69 km2 of seaweed habitat were identified. The geographical detector model was used to analyze anthropogenic disturbance caused by four local disturbance factors: shoreline development, fisheries, waterways, and ports and anchorages. Shoreline development was identified as the disturbance factor with the strongest impact on potential habitats of both vegetation types. According to these findings, 48.40 %-64.23 % of the vegetation habitats suffered from high anthropogenic disturbance. Preexisting nature reserves had not effectively protected wetland vegetation from human disturbance. Based on the spatial pattern of vegetation habitat and comprehensive anthropogenic disturbance, conservation and restoration priorities for seagrasses and seaweeds covering an area of 302.26 km2 were further mapped. Our results thus help improve wetland vegetation conservation by providing basic information, and they provide a tool to support site planning for seagrass and seaweed conservation and restoration.

Modeling the effect of fish migration on the horizontal distribution of microplastics in freshwater and ecological risks in the food web: Influence of habitat

Microplastics (MPs < 5 mm) pollution is a widespread phenomenon in freshwater ecosystems. While the role of physiochemical factors in the migration and distribution of MPs is understood, the impact of biological migration remains less clear. The influence of nekton migration determined by habitat suitability on the distribution of MPs and the consequent ecological risks to the regional food web is investigated in the freshwater environment by using Baiyangdian Lake (China) as a case study. The key findings reveal that fish migration significantly alters the horizontal distribution of MPs in the water environment, with a higher degree of fish aggregation in high suitability habitats leading to an increased presence of MPs due to their ingestion and excretion behaviors. In both high and low suitability habitats, MPs are found to bioconcentrate in fish, suggesting a significant risk to aquatic ecosystems. Despite the lack of evidence supporting MPs biomagnification, the results indicate that MPs are more likely to be biomagnified within the food web of high suitability habitats due to the enhanced foraging capabilities of aquatic organisms. These findings highlight the critical need to consider biological factors, such as nekton migration, in understanding and addressing MPs pollution in freshwater ecosystems.

The role of hydrodynamics for the spatial distribution of high-temperature hydrothermal vent-endemic fauna in the deep ocean environment

Active hydrothermal vents provide the surrounding submarine environment with substantial amounts of matter and energy, thus serving as important habitats for diverse megabenthic communities in the deep ocean and constituting a unique, highly productive chemosynthetic ecosystem on Earth. Vent-endemic biological communities gather near the venting site and are usually not found beyond a distance of the order of 100 m from the vent. This is surprising because one would actually expect matter ejected from high-temperature vents, which generate highly turbulent buoyancy plumes, to be suspended and carried far away by the plume flows and deep-sea currents. Here, we study this problem from a fluid dynamics perspective by simulating the vent hydrodynamics using a numerical model that couples the plume flow with induced matter and energy transport. We find that both low- and high-temperature vents deposit most vent matter relatively close to the plume. In particular, the tendency of turbulent buoyancy plumes to carry matter far away is strongly counteracted by generated entrainment flows back into the plume stem. The deposition ranges of organic and inorganic hydrothermal particles obtained from the simulations for various natural high-temperature vents are consistent with the observed maximum spatial extent of biological communities, evidencing that plume hydrodynamics exercises strong control over the spatial distribution of vent-endemic fauna. While other factors affecting the spatial distribution of vent-endemic fauna, such as geology and geochemistry, are site-specific, the main physical features of plume hydrodynamics unraveled in this study are largely site-unspecific and therefore universal across vent sites on Earth.

Modelling the current and future distribution potential areas of Peperomia abyssinica Miq., and Helichrysum citrispinum Steud. ex A. Rich. in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study is to investigate how climate change influences the distribution of economically and environmentally important species of P. abyssinica and H. citrispinum in Ethiopia. The species distribution modeling intends to forecast species' ecological niche ranges and habitat suitability by employing a variety of environmental parameters as predictors, which is vital for conservation planning and restoration success. Six representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 for the years 2050 and 2070) with the same resolution of 2.5 min that shows the emission scenarios were used for the prediction. To predict the current and future distributions of H. citrispinum and P. abyssinica 56 and 45 occurrence records from National Herbarium, Addis Ababa University, GBIF, and available literatures were used respectively.

RESULTS

The MaxEnt model predicted habitat suitability for H. citrispinum species with an Area Under Curve (AUC) value of 0.961 ± 0.027, and 0.809 ± 0.045 for P. abyssinica, indicating excellent discriminatory ability or accuracy under the current climate scenario. The Future distribution of suitable habitat for both H. citrispinum and P. abyssinica plant species was accurately predicted with AUC values of 0.960 ± 0.017 and 0.780 ± 0.35, respectively under future climatic scenarios. The jackknife test result indicates that environmental variables such as topographic position index (92.5%), precipitation of the driest quarter (3%) and precipitation in the coldest quarter (1.8%) are associated with the distributions of H. citrispinum, while topographic position index (36.6%), precipitation of driest quarter (21.4%), precipitation of warmest quarter (16.2%) and precipitation seasonality (13.9%) were found to be limiting environmental variables for P. abyssinica under current and future climatic conditions in Ethiopia. The prediction map and interception calculation for both present and projected (in the 2050s and again in the 2070s) climate change scenarios indicate significant habitat loss, decreased, and fragmentation under all RCPs (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) scenarios for P. abyssinica while habitat gain, and increasing for H. citrispinum in Ethiopia.

CONCLUSIONS

Topographic position index (TPI) is the most impactful predictor variable on the distribution of the two species. Consequently, potentially habitable areas (with diverse aspects and slopes) are increasing for H. citrispinum while decreasing for P. abyssinica.

Species range shifts of notorious invasive fish species in China under global changes: Insights and implications for management

Due to global changes, e.g., climate change and trade globalization, China is facing an increasingly severe threat from invasive freshwater fish species, which have the potential to cause negative impacts across various aspects and pose significant challenges for their eradication once established. Therefore, prioritizing the understanding of invasive species' potential ranges and their determinants is vital for developing more targeted management strategies. Moreover, it is equally essential to consider the transitory range dynamics of invasive species that reflect changes in habitat availability and accessibility. Here, we used species distribution models (the maximum entropy algorithm) to assess the potential distributions of six notorious invasive fish species (i.e., Coptodon zillii, Cyprinus carpio, Gambusia affinis, Hemiculter leucisculus, Oreochromis mossambicus, and Oreochromis niloticus) in current and future (i.e., the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s) periods along with their determinants, under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5; global climate model: MRI-ESM2-0). Our results showed that the habitat suitability for the six species substantially benefited from temperature conditions (i.e., annual mean temperature or maximum temperature of warmest month). Throughout the given time periods, dramatic range expansions would occur for C. zillii, G. affinis, O. mossambicus, and O. niloticus, ranging from 38.61% to 291.90%. In contrast, the range of C. carpio would change slightly and irregularly, while H. leucisculus would contract marginally, with losses ranging from 1.06% to 12.60%. By the 2070s, species richness of these species would be relatively high in South, Central, and East China and parts of Southwest China. Furthermore, transitory fluctuations in the species ranges for all six species were observed throughout the entire time period (the 2030s-2070s). Given the range shifts for each species during different time periods, as well as time costs and budgets, adaptation strategies should be developed and implemented in the areas where they are most needed in each time period.

Environmental Flow Assessment using multiple criteria: A case study in the Kumbih river, West Sumatra (Indonesia)

Water withdrawal from rivers is a key resource for agriculture, industry, and power generation. However, in order to maintain riverine ecosystem, withdrawal should not exceed certain thresholds, and normally a requirement is made that a certain amount of water be left in the river, to be assessed via Environmental Flow Assessment (EFA) procedure. In spite of the crucial importance of this task, little or no international standard exists to assess minimum values of the EF. Rather, general guidelines are provided, with large subjectivity entailed. Here, focusing on the case study Kumbih river, in Sumatra, Indonesia, we apply a multiple criteria approach to EFA procedure, testing the values of EF assessed with hydrological methods in a previous study, with a focus on a relevant target species, i.e. the fish Tor Soro. Based upon a two-dimensional hydraulic model, we explore 6 indicators, covering some most important criteria to ensure the welfare of the fish fauna. Indicator II, weighed usable volume, slightly modifies the well-known method PHABSIM. Indicators IIi.IIIII target water depth needed to ensure welfare of target species, whereas criteria IIV-VI target flow velocity, and sediment removal. Use of multiple indicators as shown here, albeit still subjective, may provide more consistent values of EF, and even an outlook of the disparity in terms of flow requirements given by the several criteria. Here we found that the maximum estimated EF under IV (flow velocity), is over twice as large as the flow estimate from II. Overall however, initial EF estimates from the hydrological criterion seem adequate against the criteria proposed. Our study is among the few covering EF for Indonesia, and the only one regarding Kumbih river, and our results are of interest, also as a benchmark for other EFA studies in the region.

Entomological surveillance and spatiotemporal risk assessment of sand fly-borne diseases in Cyprus

Visceral and cutaneous leishmaniases are important public health concerns in Cyprus. Although the diseases, historically prevalent on the island, were nearly eradicated by 1996, an increase in frequency and geographical spread has recently been recorded. Upward trends in leishmaniasis prevalence have largely been attributed to environmental changes that amplify the abundance and activity of its vector, the phlebotomine sand flies. Here, we performed an extensive field study across the island to map the sand fly fauna and compared the presence and distribution of the species found with historical records. We mapped the habitat preferences of Phlebotomus papatasi and P. tobbi, two medically important species, and predicted the seasonal abundance of P. papatasi at unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution using a climate-sensitive population dynamics model driven by high-resolution meteorological forecasting. Our compendium holds a record of 18 species and the locations of a subset, including those of potential public and veterinary health concern. We confirmed that P. papatasi is widespread, especially in densely urbanized areas, and predicted that its abundance uniformly peaks across the island at the end of summer. We identified potential hotspots of P. papatasi activity even after this peak. Our results form a foundation to inform public health planning and contribute to the development of effective, efficient, and environmentally sensitive strategies to control sand fly populations and prevent sand fly-borne diseases.

Integrating suitable habitat dynamics under typical hydrological regimes as guides for the conservation and restoration of different waterbird groups

The operation of the Three Gorges Project (TGP) has influenced the wetland ecosystems downstream, thereby affecting the distribution of habitats suitable for waterbirds. However, dynamic studies on habitat distribution under different water regimes are lacking. Here, using data from three successive wintering periods representing three typical water regimes, we modelled and mapped the habitat suitability of three waterbird groups in Dongting Lake, which is the first river-connected lake downstream of the TGP, and a crucial wintering ground for waterbirds along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. The results showed that the spatial pattern of habitat suitability varied among the wintering periods and waterbird groups. The analysis estimated the largest suitable habitat area for the herbivorous/tuber-eating group (HTG) and the insectivorous waterbird group (ING) under a normal water recession pattern, whereas early water recession had a more adverse effect. The suitable habitat area for the piscivorous/omnivorous group (POG) was higher under late water recession than under normal conditions. The ING was the most affected by hydrological changes among the three waterbird groups. Further, we identified the key conservation and potential restoration habitats. The HTG exhibited the largest key conservation habitat area compared to the other two groups, while the ING showed a potential restoration habitat area larger than its key conservation habitat area, indicating its sensitivity to environmental changes. The optimal inundation durations from September 1 to January 20 for HTG, ING and POG were 52 ± 7 d, 68 ± 18 d, and 132 ± 22 d, respectively. Therefore, the water recession starting in mid-October may be favourable for waterbirds in Dongting Lake. Altogether, our results can be used as guidance for prioritising certain management actions for waterbird conservation. Moreover, our study highlighted the importance of considering habitat spatiotemporal variation in highly dynamic wetlands when implementing management practices.

Methods for a composite ecological suitability measure to inform cumulative restoration assessments in Gulf of Mexico estuaries

Ecosystem management requires a systematic, holistic approach that considers ecological and social outcomes. Effective restoration practices promote a balance of ecological and social goals by addressing ecological integrity, efficiently maximizing benefits while minimizing investment, and encompassing collaborative stakeholder engagement. Socio-ecological assessments can inform adaptive management and be utilized to prioritize restoration activities and monitor restoration effectiveness. In estuarine systems, socio-ecological assessments should evaluate the ability of habitats to support both ecologically and locally important species. The composite measure presented utilizes a combination of ecological and social measures to characterize ecological suitability for individual and multiple Gulf of Mexico estuarine species. The ecological suitability value (ES) for a given spatial unit is based on a suite of biophysical measures of the quality and extent of suitable habitat for each species, the species' trophic importance in a food web context, and the importance of each species in relation to stakeholder values and benefits. ES values for individual spatial units can be aggregated to estimate the distribution of ecological suitability at the estuarine scale. The ES values are calculated using examples for each step in the process. The information provided by ecological suitability characterizations can support restoration prioritization decisions for Gulf of Mexico estuaries and can provide a baseline measure to gauge restoration effectiveness over time to inform cumulative restoration assessments.

Distribution of a canopy-forming alga along the Western Atlantic Ocean under global warming: The importance of depth range

Sargassum species are among the most important canopy-forming algae in the Western Atlantic Ocean (WAO), providing habitat for many species and contributing to carbon uptake. The future distribution of Sargassum and other canopy-forming algae has been modelled worldwide, indicating that their occurrence in many regions is threatened by increased seawater temperature. Surprisingly, despite the recognized variation in vertical distribution of macroalgae, these projections generally do not evaluate their results at different depth ranges. This study aimed to project the potential current and future distributions of the common and abundant benthic Sargassum natans in the WAO (from southern Argentina to eastern Canada), under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios, through an ensemble SDM approach. Possible changes between present and future distributions were assessed within two depth ranges, namely areas up to 20 m and areas up to 100 m depth. Our models forecast different distributional trends for benthic S. natans depending on the depth range. Up to 100 m, suitable areas for the species will increase by 21% under RCP 4.5, and by 15% under RCP 8.5, when compared to the potential current distribution. On the contrary, up to 20 m, suitable areas for the species will decrease by 4% under RCP 4.5 and by 14% under RCP 8.5, when compared to the potential current distribution. Under the worst scenario, losses up to 20 m depth will affect approximately 45,000 km2 of coastal areas across several countries and regions of WAO, with likely negative consequences for the structure and dynamics of coastal ecosystems. These findings highlight the importance of considering different depth ranges when building and interpreting predictive models of the distribution of habitat-forming subtidal macroalgae under climate change.

Climatic factors and human disturbance influence ungulate species distribution on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Due to human activities and climate change, the habitats of ungulate species on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have been greatly affected in recent decades. In this study, the distribution patterns of 19 ungulate species on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau were identified based on MaxEnt model in the past (1960-1990) and current periods (2000-2015). Then the changes of their habitat distribution and the species richness in different periods were compared. Finally, the Zonation model was used to identify the key protected areas of ungulate species. The results show that the MaxEnt model can well predict the distribution of ungulate species. Most ungulate species are mainly distributed in the southeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The distance to lakes and precipitation are the main factors affecting the distribution of most ungulate species. The habitats originally located in the southeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have mainly extended northeastwards, while the habitats originally located in the northwest has been largely lost. The changes in the habitats of ungulate species in the southeast and northwest are diametrically opposite. The key protected areas identified by Zonation model are mainly located in the southeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The existing nature reserves can effectively protect the suitable habitats of the Tibetan antelope, Tibetan wild ass and wild yak. This research can provide scientific basis for coordinating the contradiction between development and protection and promoting the biodiversity conservation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Full-depth vertical distribution of planktonic ciliates (Ciliophora) and a novel bio-index for indicating habitat suitability of tintinnid in the Arctic Ocean

Despite the planktonic ciliate importance in the microzooplankton compartment, their full-depth vertical distribution in the Arctic Ocean was poorly documented as well as the related variations in different water masses. The full-depth community structure of planktonic ciliates was investigated in the Arctic Ocean during summer 2021. The ciliate abundance and biomass decreased rapidly from 200 m to bottom. Five water masses were identified throughout the water column and each one exhibited a unique ciliate community structure. Aloricate ciliates were singled out as the dominant group with average abundance proportion to total ciliates at each depth >95%. Large (>30 μm) and small (10-20 μm) size-fractions of aloricate ciliates were abundant in shallow and deep waters, respectively, which revealed an anti-phase relationship in vertical distribution. Three new record tintinnid species were found during this survey. Pacific-origin species Salpingella sp.1 and Arctic endemic species Ptychocylis urnula occupied the top abundance proportion in the Pacific Summer Water (44.7%) and three water masses (≥38.7%, Mixed Layer Water, Remnant Winter Water, Atlantic-origin Water), respectively. The habitat suitability of tintinnid abundant species was characterised by the Bio-index revealing a distinct death-zone for each species. Variations in survival habitat of abundant tintinnids can be regarded as indicators for the future Arctic climate change. These results provide fundamental data on the microzooplankton response to the intrusion of Pacific waters into the Arctic Ocean upon its rapid warming.

Ensemble habitat suitability modeling for predicting optimal sites for eelgrass (Zostera marina) in the tidal lagoon ecosystem: Implications for restoration and conservation

Seagrass systems are in decline, mainly due to anthropogenic pressures and ongoing climate change. Implementing seagrass protection and restoration measures requires accurate assessment of suitable habitats. Commonly, such assessments have been performed using single-algorithm habitat suitability models, nearly always based on low environmental resolution information and short-term species data series. Here we address eelgrass (Zoostera marina) meadows' large-scale decline (>80%) in Shandong province (Yellow Sea, China) by developing an ensemble habitat model (EHM) to inform eelgrass conservation and restoration strategies in the Swan Lake (SL). For this, we applied a weighted EHM derived from ten single-algorithm models including profile, regression, classification, and machine learning methods to generate a high-resolution habitat suitability map. The EHM was constructed based on the predictive performances of each model, by combining a series of present-absent eelgrass datasets from recent years coupled with oceanographic and sediment data. The model was cross-validated with independent historical datasets, and a final habitat suitability map for conservation and restoration was generated. Our EHM scheme outperformed all single models in terms of habitat suitability, scoring ∼0.95 for both true statistic skill (TSS) and area under the curve (AUC) performance criteria. Machine learning methods outperformed profile, regression and classification methods. Regarding model explanatory variables, overall, topographic characteristics such as depth (DEP) and seafloor slope (SSL) are the most significant factors determining the distribution of eelgrass. The EHM predicted that the overlapping area was almost 90% of the current eelgrass habitat. Using results from our EHM, a LOESS regression model for the relationship of the habitat suitability to both the biomass and density of Z. marina outperformed better than the classic Ordinary Least Squares regression model. The EHM is a promising tool for supporting eelgrass protection and restoration areas in temperate lagoons as data availability improves.

The range and habitat suitability of François' langur (Trachypithecus francoisi) in Mayanghe Nature Reserve, China

The François' langur (Trachypithecus francoisi) is an endangered primate living in limestone forests in Vietnam and China. From October 2017 to August 2018, the habitat preferences and the range of the Francois' langur were surveyed in the Mayanghe Nature Reserve, Guizhou, People's Republic of China. To estimate the range and predict suitable habitat of François' langur, a Gaussian normal kernel density estimation and species distribution models (BIOMOD2) were used along with data on environmental variables and records of the langur's occurrence. The total range of François' langur in the reserve is 68.76 km², accounting for 22.1% of the total area of the reserve. The elevation of the main utilisation area is 500-800 m, accounting for 48.53% of the total area of the reserve. The maximum slope utilised is 20°-30°, 30.19 km² and accounting for 30.56% of the total area. The habitat used is largely distributed along valleys, preferred broad leaf forest, lower elevation, and close to rivers. Broad leaf forest is the main habitat type utilised, totalling 25.57 km² and accounting for 37.19% of the total area. Our models predicted that the suitable habitat in the reserve is 62.46 km², accounting for 20.08% of the total reserve area, with 32.93-km² suitable habitat occurring in the core zone, 22.44 km² in the buffer zone, and 7.02 km² in the experimental zone. Our results indicate that only limited suitable habitat (51%) adverse reserve zoning exists in the Mayanghe Nature Reserve of François' langur.

Integrating animal physiology into the adaptive management of restored landscapes

Global-scale ecological changes and intensifying habitat destruction and have caused alarming declines in wildlife populations, resulting in a great need for concerted efforts towards their conservation. Despite this, animals are frequently overlooked in restoration and management initiatives and therefore populations often do not reassemble following disturbance without re-establishing habitat that meets their abiotic and biotic requirements. However, restoration ecologists broadly lack insight into the physiological mechanisms that can govern the responses of fauna to environmental change and management. Therefore, we conducted a literature search for studies reporting a mechanistic understanding of faunal habitat suitability and selection in restored landscapes to deliver an updated perspective on the integration of animal ecophysiology and restoration ecology. Of the 75,442 studies that we identified discussing ecological restoration in the last 50 years, only 8,627 (11.4%) did so in the context of fauna from which 912 studies (1.2%) examined habitat selection, 35 studies (0.05%) integrated physiology and only 15 studies (0.02%) explored thermal biology, despite temperature being one of the most pervasive drivers of physiological functioning. To combat this, we developed a conceptual framework that can guide restoration ecophysiology and promote innovative, multidisciplinary research through an established adaptive management structure. While physiological tools and approaches are currently underutilised in restoration practice, integrating them into ecological restoration, and environmental management more broadly, will offer exciting new opportunities to describe, explain and predict the responses of fauna to environmental change occurring, and that yet to come.

A methodology framework for bipartite network modeling

The graph-theoretic based studies employing bipartite network approach mostly focus on surveying the statistical properties of the structure and behavior of the network systems under the domain of complex network analysis. They aim to provide the big-picture-view insights of a networked system by looking into the dynamic interaction and relationship among the vertices. Nonetheless, incorporating the features of individual vertex and capturing the dynamic interaction of the heterogeneous local rules governing each of them in the studies is lacking. The methodology in achieving this could hardly be found. Consequently, this study intends to propose a methodology framework that considers the influence of heterogeneous features of each node to the overall network behavior in modeling real-world bipartite network system. The proposed framework consists of three main stages with principal processes detailed in each stage, and three libraries of techniques to guide the modeling activities. It is iterative and process-oriented in nature and allows future network expansion. Two case studies from the domain of communicable disease in epidemiology and habitat suitability in ecology employing this framework are also presented. The results obtained suggest that the methodology could serve as a generic framework in advancing the current state of the art of bipartite network approach.

Surviving on the edge: present and future effects of climate warming on the common frog (Rana temporaria) population in the Montseny massif (NE Iberia)

The Montseny massif shelters the southernmost western populations of common frogs (Rana temporaria) that live in a Mediterranean climate, one which poses a challenge for the species' persistence in a scenario of rising temperatures. We evaluated the effect of climate change at three levels. First, we analysed if there has been an advancement in the onset of spawning period due to the increase in temperatures. Second, we analysed the impact of climatic variables on the onset of the spawning period and, third, how the distribution of this species could vary according to the predictions with regard to rising temperatures for the end of this century. From 2009 to 2021, we found there had been an increase in temperatures of 0.439 °C/decade, more than the 0.1 °C indicated by estimates for the second half of the previous century. We found an advancement in the onset of the reproduction process of 26 days/decade for the period 2009-2022, a change that has been even more marked during the last eight years, when data were annually recorded. Minimum temperatures and the absence of frost days in the week prior to the onset of the spawning period determine the start of reproduction. Predictions on habitat availability for spawning provided by climatic niche analysis for the period 2021-2100 show a potential contraction of the species range in the Montseny and, remarkably, much isolation from the neighbouring populations.

Habitat suitability modelling to improve understanding of seagrass loss and recovery and to guide decisions in relation to coastal discharge

Habitat suitability modelling was used to test the relationship between coastal discharges and seagrass occurrence based on data from Adelaide (South Australia). Seven variables (benthic light including epiphyte shading, temperature, salinity, substrate, wave exposure, currents and tidal exposure) were simulated using a coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model and interrogated against literature-derived thresholds for nine local seagrass species. Light availability was the most critical driver across the study area but wave exposure played a key role in shallow nearshore areas. Model validation against seagrass mapping data showed 86 % goodness-of-fit. Comparison against later mapping data suggested that modelling could predict ~745 ha of seagrass recovery in areas previously classified as 'false positives'. These results suggest that habitat suitability modelling is reliable to test scenarios and predict seagrass response to reduction of land-based loads, providing a useful tool to guide (investment) decisions to prevent loss and promote recovery of seagrasses.

Don: a Himalayan endemic medicinally important plant under climate change

In the current era of the anthropocene, climate change is one of the main determinants of species redistribution and biodiversity loss. Worryingly, the situation is alarming for endemic and medicinally important plant species with a narrow distributional range. Therefore, it is pivotal to inspect the influence of accelerated climate change on medicinally important threatened and endemic plant species. Using an ensemble approach, the current study aims at modelling the present distribution and predicting the future potential distribution coupled with the threat assessment of Swertia petiolata-a medicinally important endemic plant species in the Himalayan biodiversity hotspot. Our study revealed that under current climatic scenarios, the suitable habitats for the species occur across the western Himalayan region which includes the north-western Indian states (Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and southern Uttarakhand), northern Pakistan, and north-western Nepal. Also, temperature seasonality (BIO4) and precipitation seasonality (BIO15) are the most significant bioclimatic variables determining the distribution of S. petiolata. Furthermore, the study projected a reduction in the suitable habitats for the species under future changing climatic scenarios with a reduction ranging from - 40.298% under RCP4.5 2050 to - 83.421% under RCP8.5 2070. Most of the habitat reduction will occur in the western Himalayan region. In contrast, some of the currently unsuitable Himalayan regions like northern Uttarakhand will show increasing suitability under climate change scenarios. The current study also revealed that S. petiolata is classified as Near Threatened (NT) following the IUCN criterion B. Hopefully, the present study will provide a robust tool for predicting the cultivation hotspots and devising scientifically effective conservation strategies for this medicinally important plant species in the Himalaya and similar environments elsewhere in the world.

Assessing the suitable regions and the key factors for three Cd-accumulating plants (Sedum alfredii, Phytolacca americana, and Hylotelephium spectabile) in China using MaxEnt model

Phytoremediation is an effective way to remove metals from contaminated soil, and selecting remediation plants suitable for climate conditions is a prerequisite for effective phytoremediation. In this study, a MaxEnt model was applied to investigate the potential distribution and habitat suitability of three Cd-accumulating plants in China- Sedum alfredii, Phytolacca americana, and Hylotelephium spectabile and explore the key environmental factors that affect their habitat suitability. A total of 44 environmental parameters, including bioclimatic variables, altitude, and soil property parameters were used. The results showed that: (1) For S. alfredii, suitable areas account for 14.9 % of the area of China, which are mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. (2) The suitable areas of P. americana account for 22.7 % of China and are mainly located in the regions of the Qinling Mountains and the south of China. (3) While that for H. spectabile are mainly located in the regions of northeastern China and certain regions of central China, with suitable areas account for 8.3 % of the area of China. (4) The distribution of these three plants is significantly affected by precipitation; specifically, solar radiation is an influential factor for the distribution of S. alfredii and H. spectabile, and temperature limits the distribution of P. americana. The selection and agronomic management of hyperaccumulators for phytoremediation requires multifactor consideration (e.g., climate, soil conditions and planting patterns). The results can provide guidance for identifying suitable areas for planting these three accumulating plants, which could not only prevent the unscientific cultivation of them in unsuitable habitats but also enhance the efficiency of phytoremediation. Meanwhile, these findings are expected to contribute to agronomic management for improved phytoremediation effects in different Cd-contaminated regions of China.

High vulnerability and a big conservation gap: Mapping the vulnerability of coastal scleractinian corals in South China

Scleractinian corals build the most complex and diverse ecosystems in the ocean with various ecosystem services, yet continue to be degraded by natural and anthropogenic stressors. Despite the rapid decline in scleractinian coral habitats in South China, they are among the least concerning in global coral vulnerability maps. This study developed a rapid assessment approach that combines vulnerability components and species distribution models to map coral vulnerability within a large region based on limited data. The approach contained three aspects including, exposure, habitat suitability, and coral-conservation-based adaptive capacity. The exposure assessment was based on seven indicators, and the habitat suitability was mapped using Maximum Entropy and Random Forest models. Vulnerability of scleractinian corals in South China was spatially evaluated using the approach developed here. The results showed that the average exposure of the study region was 0.62, indicating relatively high pressure. The highest exposure occurred from the east coast of the Leizhou Peninsula to the Pearl River Estuary. Aquaculture and shipping were the most common causes of exposure. Highly suitable habitats for scleractinian corals are concentrated between 18°N-22°N. Only 21.6 % of the potential coral habitats are included in marine protected areas, indicating that there may still be large conservation gaps for scleractinian corals in China. In total, 37.7 % of the potential coral habitats were highly vulnerable, with the highest vulnerability appearing in the Guangdong Province. This study presents the first attempt to map the vulnerability of scleractinian corals along the coast of South China. The proposed approach and findings provide an essential tool and information supporting the sustainable management and conservation of coral reef ecosystems, addressing an important gap on the world's coral reef vulnerability map.

Broad scale functional connectivity for Asian elephants in the Nepal-India transboundary region

The Nepal-India transboundary region hosts one of Asia's most complex large mammal assemblages, including a small (but growing) population of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus). These elephants occur in four widespread and geographically disjunct subpopulations, and some of them undergo seasonal transboundary movements. We conducted a broad-scale evaluation of the amount and quality of elephant habitat available in the region and of functional landscape connectivity between and within subpopulations using Maxent, circuit theory, and least-cost path analysis. Habitat suitability was highly influenced by abiotic geographical factors (altitude and precipitation) and less by ecological factors (habitat heterogeneity, plant productivity) and human disturbance (distance to settlements). The region had a relatively small amount of high and optimal suitability habitat (12.6% out of 93,700 km²) but all subpopulations seem to be far from carrying capacity, suggesting ample potential for further population growth. Landscape connectivity was higher between and within the west and far-west subpopulations, which should be considered a single subpopulation. The central and ea st subpopulations, however, had low to very low between-subpopulation connectivity. Conservation priorities include maintaining the current connectivity in the west subpopulation and across the border in the east, and protecting high-quality habitats in eastern Nepal. Restoring connectivity between the central and other subpopulations is possible if the number of elephants continues growing, and it should be a long-term conservation aspiration. Maintaining and enhancing landscape connectivity in this region requires transboundary cooperation and coordination between Nepali and Indian authorities. If successful, it will bring considerable benefits for the conservation of elephants and other wildlife.

Assessment of global habitat suitability and risk of ocean green tides

Green tides, which are widespread problems, are harmful issues that affect the protection of ocean ecosystems and natural resources. Scientific assessment and prevention of the green tides are essential for sustainable planning and the utilization of maritime traffic, tourism, and industry. However, the suitable or risk habitats and their dominant factors of green tides from global perspective are unknown. Here, this study proposed a novel framework to show the habitat suitability and risk of ocean green tides by considering marine environmental factors (i.e., sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, solar irradiance, chlorophyll-a concentration, and sea surface wind). Through global remote sensing images and marine environmental factor data, this study found that (1) suitable and at-risk green tides areas are located in the north and south temperate zones; (2) marine physical factors are expected to weaken the green tide risk globally and enhance the green tide risk in coastal areas; (3) the green tides in the North Atlantic Ocean and the West Pacific Ocean are dominated by environmental factors and physical factors, respectively; and (4) when reducing carbon to promote sustainability, more potentially suitable green tide areas may appear at high latitudes. The results demonstrate the at-risk location and future trend of green tides, which are helpful for sustainable planning of ocean ecosystems.

Predicting the potential suitable habitats of genus Nymphaea in India using MaxEnt modeling

Modeling and mapping the distribution of suitable habitats of aquatic plants are critical for assessing the impact of factors like changing climate on species habitat range shifts, declines, and expansions. Nymphaea is an aquatic perennial herb considered valuable because of its ornamental, economic, medicinal, and ecological importance. In India, the geographical distribution of Nymphaea is diverse, and the suitable habitats of individual species are vulnerable to the changing climate and global warming effects. Despite its increased vulnerability, only a few limited conservation efforts in aquatic environments are being made to date. In several places, the distribution of Nymphaea has been impacted by both anthropogenic and climate-related disturbances. A comprehensive strategy will be needed to meet the socio-ecological challenge of Nymphaea conservation. In this study, we employed maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method to assess how climate change affects the distribution of Nymphaea suitable habitat. The occurrence records of Nymphaea were collected from primary surveys, Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), and published works. Bioclimatic variables obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) were employed as predictor variables in distribution modeling. The projections were made using three SSPs (stringent mitigation scenarios) for the future period of 2050. Our results showed shifts in the suitability ranges of Nymphaea under different projection scenarios. The study provides information about the distribution of suitable habitats for Nymphaea in India, which may be helpful for ongoing efforts to conserve and manage the aquatic plants, particularly in areas that are losing suitable climate conditions.

Mapping the habitat suitability of Ottelia species in Africa

Understanding the influence of environmental covariates on plant distribution is critical, especially for aquatic plant species. Climate change is likely to alter the distribution of aquatic species. However, knowledge of this change on the burden of aquatic macroorganisms is often fraught with difficulty. Ottelia, a model genus for studying the evolution of the aquatic family Hydrocharitaceae, is mainly distributed in slow-flowing creeks, rivers, or lakes throughout pantropical regions in the world. Due to recent rapid climate changes, natural Ottelia populations have declined significantly. By modeling the effects of climate change on the distribution of Ottelia species and assessing the degree of niche similarity, we sought to identify high suitability regions and help formulate conservation strategies. The models use known background points to determine how environmental covariates vary spatially and produce continental maps of the distribution of the Ottelia species in Africa. Additionally, we estimated the possible influences of the optimistic and extreme pessimistic representative concentration pathways scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the 2050s. Our results show that the distinct distribution patterns of studied Ottelia species were influenced by topography (elevation) and climate (e.g., mean temperature of driest quarter, annual precipitation, and precipitation of the driest month). While there is a lack of accord in defining the limiting factors for the distribution of Ottelia species, it is clear that water-temperature conditions have promising effects when kept within optimal ranges. We also note that climate change will impact Ottelia by accelerating fragmentation and habitat loss. The assessment of niche overlap revealed that Ottelia cylindrica and O . verdickii had slightly more similar niches than the other Ottelia species. The present findings identify the need to enhance conservation efforts to safeguard natural Ottelia populations and provide a theoretical basis for the distribution of various Ottelia species in Africa.

Assessing the inundation dynamics and its impacts on habitat suitability in Poyang Lake based on integrating Landsat and MODIS observations

Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China, serves critical ecosystem function for water regulation and biodiversity conservation. However, it experienced dramatic changes in lake inundation due to recent climate change and human activities, causing ecological and economic problems. Here, we applied a multiple-index water detection rule to integrated Landsat and MODIS products to reconstruct surface water series at 30-m and 8-day resolutions and quantified the spatio-temporal inundation dynamics in Poyang Lake over the past 20 years (2000-2019). Furthermore, their influences on habitat suitability for herbivorous birds were also assessed from the perspectives of hydroperiod and vegetation growth threshold. The significant declining trend (-26.66 km² yr^-1, p < 0.001) for the annual minimum water areas throughout the 20 years implied that Poyang Lake was undergoing a continuous shrinkage in the low-water season. On the monthly scale, inundation frequency (IF) decreases were more significant in September-January, most of which occurred in the alluvial delta zones near the lake center. The altered water regime after the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) might be the dominant contributor responsible for the continuous lake shrinkage during the recent low-water period. The sub-lakes suffered from spring drought rather than winter drought, triggering vegetation successions regarding the reversed trend of the well-documented xerophilization in Poyang Lake. The recent earlier and prolonged dry seasons caused an increase of suitable habitat for herbivorous birds (13.92 km² year^-1, p < 0.1), but triggered a potential risk of food quality degradation when the migratory waterbirds peaked in December. These results provide a clear reference for optimizing the hydrologic management and biodiversity conservation of Poyang Lake.

Assessing the distribution of invasive Asian mosquitoes in Northern Italy and modelling the potential spread of Aedes koreicus in Europe

In the last decade, Aedes koreicus and Aedes japonicus japonicus mosquitoes, which are competent vectors for various arboviruses of public health relevance, colonised Italy and other European countries. Nevertheless, information about their current and potential distribution is partial. Accordingly, in this study four regions of Northern Italy (Lombardy, Liguria, Piedmont and Aosta Valley) were surveyed during 2021 for the presence of eggs, larvae and pupae of these two invasive species. We found evidence for a widespread presence of Ae. koreicus in pre-Alpine territories of Lombardy and Piedmont. Larvae from the invasive subspecies of Ae. j. japonicus were also collected in the same geographic areas, though they were less frequent. Occurrence data from this study and results from previous monitoring campaigns were used to generate a Maxent model for the prediction of habitat suitability for Ae. koreicus mosquitoes in Northern Italy and the rest of Europe. Peri-urban areas located in proximity to forests, pastures and vineyards were revealed as highly suitable environments for colonisation by this invasive species. Maps of the potential distribution also suggest the presence of further suitable areas in currently uncolonized countries. We conclude that this invasive mosquito species has the potential for a broad expansion at the European level in the coming decades.

Identifying the ecological security patterns of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China

Identifying and improving the existing ecological security patterns (ESPs) are of great importance to promoting ecological security and achieving sustainable development goals. The Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) is an area with a sensitive, fragile, and complex ecological environment in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River. The construction of ESPs for the TGRR is significant for maintaining regional ecosystem stability and promoting peaceful coexistence between humans and nature. The main objective of the study is to identify the ecological nodes, ecological corridors, and ecological sources that play essential roles in the ecosystem. Based on land use data and human interference factors, we have evaluated the current habitat quality using the InVEST model and identified vital ecological sources for the TGRR. The negative exponential transformation function was used to convert habitat suitability into a landscape resistance layer. Circuit theory modeling was utilized to identify ecological corridors, and the final ESPs of the TGRR were then constructed. Results showed that (a) the spatial distribution of habitat varied significantly in the TGRR. The optimal habitats were concentrated in the northeast, east, and southwest, accounting for 45.98% of the total suitable habitats; (b) habitat quality varied through space, with habitat quality being higher in the northeast and lower in the western regions. (c) Ecological sources were distributed primarily in the forests with high vegetation coverage in the east. The total area of ecological sources was about 15,412 km², approximately accounting for 34% of the study area; (d) the ESPs were dominated by ecological sources composed of forests, which were radially connected by ecological corridors. In total, these included 14 significant ecological sources, 25 clusters of ecological corridors, and 23 ecological nodes. The results are of great significance to promote the ecological security of the TGRR and could provide theoretical support for biodiversity conservation and territorial space planning for the Three Gorges Region.

ISSR Markers and Their Association with Habitat Suitability Within and Between Different Ecoregions

Poa pratensis L. is a commonly used cool-season turfgrass and endemic to Iran. This research was carried out to examine the genetic diversity of this plant within and between ecoregions of Iran and the impact of climatic variables and elevation on the distribution of its genotypes, as well as habitat suitability modeling. We used fifty accessions collected from six ecoregions (West, South, North, North-West and North-East) for genetic diversity assessment using 20 ISSR marker primers. The prospective ecoregions for Kentucky bluegrass production were projected using habitat suitability modeling, which took into account important environmental parameters, such as annual mean temperature, annual mean rainfall, and elevation. According to the UPMGA dendrogram, the accessions were divided into two major types and four subclasses. The genetic distance between the North and North-east accessions, as well as the Center accessions, was greater than that of the other genotypes. Center accessions had the greatest levels of polymorphism, effective number of alleles, Shannon index, and Nei's genetic diversity. The FR method was used to create the habitat suitability map based on environmental factors. Rainfall had the largest influence on the genotype distribution of P. pratensis L. The findings of this study can be used as raw materials in future breeding programs to improve and generate new cultivars with superior characteristics. It can also assist programs in identifying rare cultivars as well as preserving and developing native P. pratensis L. genotypes.

Assessing the exposure risk of large pelagic fish to oil spills scenarios in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico

Exposure risk is assessed based on modeling suitable habitat of large pelagic fish and oil spill scenarios originating at three wells located in the western GM's deep waters. Since the fate of the oil depends on the oceanographic conditions present during the accident, as well as the magnitude and duration of the spill, which are not known a priori, the scenarios used are a statistical representation of the area in which oil spilled from the well could be found, given all possible outcomes. The ecological vulnerability assessment identified a subset of bony fish with low-medium vulnerability and elasmobranchs with medium-high vulnerability. The oiling probability and exposure risk of both bony fish and elasmobranchs hotspots vary by well analyzed. Thus, these results provide essential information for a risk management plan for the assessed species and others with economic or conservation importance distributed in the GM and worldwide.

Habitat suitability for a community of Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica) and their prey in Changbaishan

The Changbaishan reserve and the forests around it are one of the priority areas for Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) recovery in northeastern China. Previous habitat suitability analyses only took the ecological requirements of tigers into consideration, so this study aims to determine habitat suitability for a tiger-prey community in the region, by analysing ungulate prey availability and habitat suitability for both predator and prey. Three prey species were found, using the snow tacking method: red deer (Cervus canadensis xanthopygus), wild boar (Sus scrofa), and roe deer (Capreolus pygargus). Habitat suitability was evaluated for tigers, red deer, and wild boar, using a multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) process. MCE results showed that (1) habitat suitability is generally low outside the reserve for all three species; (2) suitability values were the lowest for tigers due to high intensity of human impact in the area, with suitable habitat restricted to the centre of the reserve; and (3) red deer and wild boar would find pockets of suitable habitat outside the reserve. A combination of low forest quality and high human impact intensity imposes significant environmental pressure to those ungulates. To recover tiger population in Changbaishan, forest quality and human impacts should be properly managed, which should increase prey availability.

Impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of African oak tree (Afzelia africana Sm.) in Burkina Faso, West Africa

Afzelia africana Sm – a multipurpose leguminous tree species – is threatened in West Africa – a climate change hotspot region. Yet, although the impacts of land use on this species dynamics have been widely reported, there is a little literature on the impacts of climate change on its spatial distribution. This study aimed to predict the impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of A. africana in Burkina Faso. A total of 4,066 records of A. africana was compiled from personal fieldwork and vegetation database. Current and future bioclimatic variables were obtained from WorldClim website. For future climatic projections, six global climate models (GCMs) were selected under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5) and two horizons (2050 & 2070). Presence data and bioclimatic variables were processed in ArcGIS software and used in the algorithm MaxEnt (maximum of entropy) to predict the species distribution. Findings showed that maximum temperature of warmest month and mean temperature of coldest quarter mostly affect the habitat suitability of A. africana. About 25.54% of Burkina Faso land surface was currently suitable for A. africana conservation. Under future climatic projections, all the climate models predict climate-driven habitat loss of the species with a southward range shift. Across the two emission scenarios, the spatial extent of suitable habitats was predicted to decline from 9.43 to 23.99% and from 12.29 to 25% by the horizons 2050 and 2070, respectively. Habitat loss and range shifts predicted in this study underline the high vulnerability of A. africana to future climate change. Reforestation actions and the protection of predicted suitable habitats are recommended to sustain the species conservation.

Predicting the habitat suitability of Schistosoma intermediate host Bulinus truncatus, its predatory aquatic insect Odonata nymph, and the associated aquatic plant Ceratophyllum demersum using MaxEnt

Schistosomiasis is one of the most important parasitic diseases in tropical and subtropical areas. Its prevalence is associated with the distribution of freshwater snails, which are their intermediate hosts. Thus, control of freshwater snails is the solution to reduce the transmission of this disease. This will be achieved by understanding the relationship between the snails and their habitats including natural enemies and associated aquatic plants as well as the factors affecting their distribution. In this study, Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt) was used for mapping and predicting the possible geographic distribution of Bulinus truncatus snail (the intermediate host of Schistosoma haematobium), Odonata nymph (predatory aquatic insect), and Ceratophyllum demersum (the associated aquatic plant) in Egypt based on topographic and climatic factors. The models of the investigated species were evaluated using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve. The results showed that the potential risk areas were along the banks of the Nile River and its irrigation canals. In addition, the MaxEnt models revealed some similarities in the distribution pattern of the vector, the predator, and the aquatic plant. It is obvious that the predictive distribution range of B. truncatus was affected by altitude, precipitation seasonality, isothermality, and mean temperature of warmest quarter. The presence of B. truncatus decreases with the increase of altitude and precipitation seasonality values. It could be concluded that the MaxEnt model could help introducing a predictive risk map for Schistosoma haematobium prevalence and performing better management strategies for schistosomiasis.

Potential effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of macrobenthos in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to detect potential effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of macrobenthos in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea. We obtained the presence/absence data of five dominant and characteristic macrobenthos from 268 sites investigated during 2000-2016 and 13 environmental variables from online datasets. The ensemble SDMs were constructed and were in good model performance for all five species. Model projections showed that the five species displayed different reactions to future climate scenarios: two species (the ophiuroid Ophiura sarsii vadicola and the bivalve Thyasira tokunagai) will likely contract their ranges, two (the crab Xenophthalmus pinnotheroides and the polychaete Sternaspis chinensis) will likely expand their ranges, and one (the ophiuroid Amphioplus japonicus) will likely move northward. Those differences were mainly due to their difference in thermal tolerance. Our findings provide important scientific basis for understanding the influence of climate change on marine benthic ecosystems.

Preferential habitats prediction in syngnathids using species distribution models

Syngnathids are considered as flagship species for marine conservation. Seahorses and pipefish are highly vulnerable to anthropogenic and environmental disturbances, but most species are currently considered Data Deficient by IUCN, requiring more biological and ecological research. Although syngnathids are well known for their unusual breeding biology, some aspects on the ecology of this family have rarely received attention. The knowledge on the factors governing syngnathids distribution is limited to some species and geographical regions. The present study is the first approach to predict syngnathid habitat preference in Spanish coasts, particularly in a marine National Park. In this study, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) were implemented to investigate the preferential habitat and distribution of the pipefish Syngnathus acus in Cíes Archipelago (Atlantic Islands of Galicia National Park, PNIA). Occurrence data of the species obtained from 2016 to 2018 surveys in PNIA were modeled as a function of bathymetric (depth, slope), substrate (sediment texture) and oceanographic (waves exposure) variables, using GAM, Random Forest and Maxent algorithms. From those SDMs, prediction models were built and the ensemble map of predictions was performed. The variables that most determined the distribution of the species were depth and wave exposure. The results of this study provide information on (1) habitat preference in the most dominant species in PNIA, the pipefish S. acus, towards sustainable management of this species in the National Park, and (2) predictive statistical tools for proper spatial conservation plans of this syngnathid species.

Habitat connectivity and resource selection in an expanding bobcat (Lynx rufus) population

Terrestrial carnivores are among the most imperiled species worldwide, yet some species are resilient and are recovering in human-dominated landscapes after decades or centuries of absence. Bobcat (Lynx rufus) populations were extirpated from much of Midwestern US in the mid-1800's, and are currently expanding and recolonizing their former range. In this study, we investigated multi-scale habitat selection for Ohio's expanding bobcat population, and examined habitat connectivity in order to evaluate the conduits for dispersal statewide. We used citizen observations collected between 1978 and 2019 and logistic regression to evaluate population-level habitat selection, and GPS telemetry data for 20 individuals collected between 2012 and 2014 and a distribution-weighted exponential Resource Selection Function to evaluate individual-level habitat selection within home ranges. At the population level, bobcats selected for higher amounts of forest and pasture (at a 50 km² scale) and herbaceous vegetation (at 15-50 50 km² scales), thus overall heterogeneous forested habitat. At individual (home range) level, bobcats selected for forested habitats with low road density and farther away from high traffic roads; they also showed weak selection for open habitat at the home range level. Male home ranges were significantly greater than female home ranges. Lastly, we used the population-level spatial outputs (i.e. habitat suitability map) to parameterize habitat connectivity models using circuit theory in the program Circuitscape. We tested three relationships between habitat suitability and resistance to movement and used a subset of data on potential dispersing individuals to evaluate which relationship performed best. All three relationships performed almost equally well, and we calculated a weighted averaged connectivity map as our final map. Habitat was highly permeable to movements between core areas of two genetically distinct subpopulations located in southeastern Ohio. We also identified potential dispersal corridors from the core areas to other regions of Ohio dominated by agriculture and suburban development via forested riparian corridors. Overall, our analysis offers new information on habitat selection and connectivity in a rebounding felid population and offers important ecological information for wildlife management strategies. We recommend that the suitability and connectivity models should be periodically updated until the population reaches an equilibrium, and be integrated with data from neighboring states for a comprehensive assessment of a conservation success story.

Ecological niche modeling for predicting the potential geographical distribution of Aedes species (Diptera: Culicidae): A case study of Enugu State, Nigeria

Arbovirus transmission by Aedes mosquitoes has long been a significant problem in Africa. In West Africa, Aedes vector management faces significant challenges; lack of recent Aedes distributional data and potential distributional modeling hinder effective vector control and pose serious public health issues. In this study, larval and adult mosquitoes were collected from four study sites in Enugu State, Nigeria every other month between November 2017 and September 2018. A total number of 2997 Aedes mosquitoes were collected and identified, and 59 positive field occurrence points for both Aedes adult and larvae were recorded. A total of 18 positive occurrence points were used for modeling. Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) were used to estimate the current geographic distribution of Aedes species (spp.) in Enugu State, south-east Nigeria, and mosquito presence was used as a proxy for predicting risk of disease transmission. Maximum Entropy distribution modeling or “MaxEnt” was used for predicting the potential suitable habitats, using a portion of the occurrence records. A total of 23 environmental variables (19 bioclimatic and four topographic) were used to model the potential geographical distribution area under current climatic conditions. The most suitable habitat for Aedes spp. was predicted in the northern, central, and southeastern parts of Enugu State with some extensions in Anambra, Delta, and Edo States in the west, and Ebonyi State in the east. Seasonal temperature, precipitation of the wettest month, mean monthly temperature range, elevation, and precipitation of the driest months were the highest estimated main variable contributions associated with the distribution of Aedes spp. We found that Aedes spp. prefer to be situated in environmental conditions where precipitation of wettest month ranged from 265 to 330 mm, precipitation of driest quarter ranged from 25 to 75 mm while precipitation of wettest quarter ranged from 650 to 950 mm. Aedes mosquitoes, such as Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, pose a significant threat to human health, hence, the results of this study will help decision makers to monitor the distribution of these species and establish a management plan for future national mosquito surveillance and control programs in Nigeria.

The modeled distribution of corals and sponges surrounding the Salas y Gómez and Nazca ridges with implications for high seas conservation

The Salas y Gómez and Nazca ridges are two adjacent seamount chains off the west coast of South America that collectively contain more than 110 seamounts. The ridges support an exceptionally rich diversity of benthic and pelagic communities, with the highest level of endemism found in any marine environment. Despite some historical fishing in the region, the seamounts are relatively pristine and represent an excellent conservation opportunity to protect a global biodiversity hotspot before it is degraded. One obstacle to effective spatial management of the ridges is the scarcity of direct observations in deeper waters throughout the region and an accompanying understanding of the distribution of key taxa. Species distribution models are increasingly used tools to quantify the distributions of species in data-poor environments. Here, we focused on modeling the distribution of demosponges, glass sponges, and stony corals, three foundation taxa that support large assemblages of associated fauna through the creation of complex habitat structures. Models were constructed at a 1 km2 resolution using presence and pseudoabsence data, dissolved oxygen, nitrate, phosphate, silicate, aragonite saturation state, and several measures of seafloor topography. Highly suitable habitat for each taxa was predicted to occur throughout the Salas y Gómez and Nazca ridges, with the most suitable habitat occurring in small patches on large terrain features such as seamounts, guyots, ridges, and escarpments. Determining the spatial distribution of these three taxa is a critical first step towards supporting the improved spatial management of the region. While the total area of highly suitable habitat was small, our results showed that nearly all of the seamounts in this region provide suitable habitats for deep-water corals and sponges and should therefore be protected from exploitation using the best available conservation measures.