1
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Sakaci Z, Talay S, Erguler K, Korkmaz A, Sirin D, Er A, Alten B, Kar S. Interindividual variation among Culex pipiens larvae in terms of thermal response. Med Vet Entomol 2024; 38:205-215. [PMID: 38348507 DOI: 10.1111/mve.12709] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2023] [Accepted: 01/23/2024] [Indexed: 05/01/2024]
Abstract
This study aims to determine the phenological characteristics of thermal responses in the larvae of a Culex pipiens complex field population at the individual level under the influence of thermal regime of its habitat. The analysis is based on a structured population model quantifying the thermal responses of development time and survival under variable conditions and characterising the variety between the larvae (interindividual variety). During the study performed in Turkish Thrace on a monthly basis between May 2021 and June 2022, a total of 3744 larvae were reared as peer larval cohorts and 2330 larvae as siblings in artificial containers to be fully exposed to the natural thermal condition that was recorded hourly. The development process of larvae was monitored daily from egg to adult. As a result, a total of 4788 adult mosquitoes emerged, with a development period ranging from 8 to 52 days in the females and 7 to 50 days in the males, and the survival rate was found to range from 0% to 100%. Both parameters varied by month and individuals, and the variations manifested itself, particularly in the colder periods. The results indicate that the variation between the individuals in terms of thermal response in the larvae of C. pipiens, along with the thermal acclimation ability, appears to be fate determinant in resisting fluctuating thermal regimes, surviving in concurrent climate change and adapting to new conditions with modifications in the seasonal phenology, such as maintaining reproductive dynamics throughout the winter thanks to global warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zafer Sakaci
- Department of Biology, Tekirdag Namik Kemal University, Tekirdag, Turkey
- Department of Biology, Balikesir University, Balikesir, Turkey
| | - Sengul Talay
- Department of Biology, Tekirdag Namik Kemal University, Tekirdag, Turkey
| | - Kamil Erguler
- Environmental Predictions Department, Climate and Atmosphere Research Centre, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Adil Korkmaz
- Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey
| | - Deniz Sirin
- Department of Biology, Tekirdag Namik Kemal University, Tekirdag, Turkey
| | - Aylin Er
- Department of Biology, Balikesir University, Balikesir, Turkey
| | - Bulent Alten
- Faculty of Sciences, Department of Biology, Division of Ecology, Hacettepe University, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Sirri Kar
- Department of Biology, Tekirdag Namik Kemal University, Tekirdag, Turkey
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2
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Christou M, Koyutourk B, Yetismis K, Martinou AF, Christodoulou V, Koliou M, Antoniou M, Pavlou C, Ozbel Y, Kasap OE, Alten B, Georgiades P, Georgiou GK, Christoudias T, Proestos Y, Lelieveld J, Erguler K. Entomological surveillance and spatiotemporal risk assessment of sand fly-borne diseases in Cyprus. Curr Res Parasitol Vector Borne Dis 2023; 4:100152. [PMID: 38223852 PMCID: PMC10787173 DOI: 10.1016/j.crpvbd.2023.100152] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/23/2023] [Revised: 10/11/2023] [Accepted: 10/21/2023] [Indexed: 01/16/2024]
Abstract
Visceral and cutaneous leishmaniases are important public health concerns in Cyprus. Although the diseases, historically prevalent on the island, were nearly eradicated by 1996, an increase in frequency and geographical spread has recently been recorded. Upward trends in leishmaniasis prevalence have largely been attributed to environmental changes that amplify the abundance and activity of its vector, the phlebotomine sand flies. Here, we performed an extensive field study across the island to map the sand fly fauna and compared the presence and distribution of the species found with historical records. We mapped the habitat preferences of Phlebotomus papatasi and P. tobbi, two medically important species, and predicted the seasonal abundance of P. papatasi at unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution using a climate-sensitive population dynamics model driven by high-resolution meteorological forecasting. Our compendium holds a record of 18 species and the locations of a subset, including those of potential public and veterinary health concern. We confirmed that P. papatasi is widespread, especially in densely urbanized areas, and predicted that its abundance uniformly peaks across the island at the end of summer. We identified potential hotspots of P. papatasi activity even after this peak. Our results form a foundation to inform public health planning and contribute to the development of effective, efficient, and environmentally sensitive strategies to control sand fly populations and prevent sand fly-borne diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria Christou
- The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
- Joint Services Health Unit, British Forces Cyprus, RAF Akrotiri, Akrotiri, BFPO 57, Cyprus
| | | | - Kardelen Yetismis
- Department of Parasitology, Ege University, Institute of Health Science, Izmir, Turkey
| | - Angeliki F. Martinou
- The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
- Joint Services Health Unit, British Forces Cyprus, RAF Akrotiri, Akrotiri, BFPO 57, Cyprus
| | | | - Maria Koliou
- Medical School, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | | | | | - Yusuf Ozbel
- Department of Parasitology, Ege University, Izmir, Turkey
| | - Ozge Erisoz Kasap
- Biology Department, VERG Laboratories, Hacettepe University, Beytepe-Ankara, Turkey
| | - Bulent Alten
- Biology Department, VERG Laboratories, Hacettepe University, Beytepe-Ankara, Turkey
| | | | | | | | | | - Jos Lelieveld
- The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
- Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
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3
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Georgiades P, Proestos Y, Lelieveld J, Erguler K. Machine Learning Modeling of Aedes albopictus Habitat Suitability in the 21st Century. Insects 2023; 14:insects14050447. [PMID: 37233075 DOI: 10.3390/insects14050447] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2023] [Revised: 05/03/2023] [Accepted: 05/06/2023] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is an important vector of arboviruses that cause diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and zika. The vector is highly invasive and adapted to survive in temperate northern territories outside its native tropical and sub-tropical range. Climate and socio-economic change are expected to facilitate its range expansion and exacerbate the global vector-borne disease burden. To project shifts in the global habitat suitability of the vector, we developed an ensemble machine learning model, incorporating a combination of a Random Forest and XGBoost binary classifiers, trained with a global collection of vector surveillance data and an extensive set of climate and environmental constraints. We demonstrate the reliable performance and wide applicability of the ensemble model in comparison to the known global presence of the vector, and project that suitable habitats will expand globally, most significantly in the northern hemisphere, putting at least an additional billion people at risk of vector-borne diseases by the middle of the 21st century. We project several highly populated areas of the world will be suitable for Ae. albopictus populations, such as the northern parts of the USA, Europe, and India by the end of the century, which highlights the need for coordinated preventive surveillance efforts of potential entry points by local authorities and stakeholders.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pantelis Georgiades
- Environmental Predictions Department, Climate and Atmosphere Research Centre, Cyprus Institute, 2121 Nicosia, Cyprus
- Computation-Based Science and Technology Research Center (CaSToRC), Cyprus Institute, 2121 Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Yiannis Proestos
- Environmental Predictions Department, Climate and Atmosphere Research Centre, Cyprus Institute, 2121 Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Jos Lelieveld
- Environmental Predictions Department, Climate and Atmosphere Research Centre, Cyprus Institute, 2121 Nicosia, Cyprus
- Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Hahm-Meitner-Weg 1, 55128 Mainz, Germany
| | - Kamil Erguler
- Environmental Predictions Department, Climate and Atmosphere Research Centre, Cyprus Institute, 2121 Nicosia, Cyprus
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4
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Neira M, Erguler K, Ahmady-Birgani H, Al-Hmoud ND, Fears R, Gogos C, Hobbhahn N, Koliou M, Kostrikis LG, Lelieveld J, Majeed A, Paz S, Rudich Y, Saad-Hussein A, Shaheen M, Tobias A, Christophides G. Climate change and human health in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East: Literature review, research priorities and policy suggestions. Environ Res 2023; 216:114537. [PMID: 36273599 PMCID: PMC9729515 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114537] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2022] [Revised: 09/29/2022] [Accepted: 10/06/2022] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
Human health is linked to climatic factors in complex ways, and climate change can have profound direct and indirect impacts on the health status of any given region. Susceptibility to climate change is modulated by biological, ecological and socio-political factors such as age, gender, geographic location, socio-economic status, occupation, health status and housing conditions, among other. In the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME), climatic factors known to affect human health include extreme heat, water shortages and air pollution. Furthermore, the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) and the health consequences of population displacement are also influenced by climate change in this region. To inform future policies for adaptation and mitigation measures, and based on an extensive review of the available knowledge, we recommend several research priorities for the region. These include the generation of more empirical evidence on exposure-response functions involving climate change and specific health outcomes, the development of appropriate methodologies to evaluate the physical and psychological effects of climate change on vulnerable populations, determining how climate change alters the ecological determinants of human health, improving our understanding of the effects of long-term exposure to heat stress and air pollution, and evaluating the interactions between adaptation and mitigation strategies. Because national boundaries do not limit most climate-related factors expected to impact human health, we propose that adaptation/mitigation policies must have a regional scope, and therefore require collaborative efforts among EMME nations. Policy suggestions include a decisive region-wide decarbonisation, the integration of environmentally driven morbidity and mortality data throughout the region, advancing the development and widespread use of affordable technologies for the production and management of drinking water by non-traditional means, the development of comprehensive strategies to improve the health status of displaced populations, and fostering regional networks for monitoring and controlling the spread of infectious diseases and disease vectors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marco Neira
- Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus.
| | - Kamil Erguler
- Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | | | | | - Robin Fears
- European Academies Science Advisory Council (EASAC), Halle (Saale), Germany
| | | | - Nina Hobbhahn
- European Academies Science Advisory Council (EASAC), Halle (Saale), Germany
| | - Maria Koliou
- University of Cyprus Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Leondios G Kostrikis
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus; Cyprus Academy of Sciences, Letters, and Arts, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Jos Lelieveld
- Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus; Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
| | - Azeem Majeed
- Department of Primary Care & Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Shlomit Paz
- Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel
| | - Yinon Rudich
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, The Weismann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
| | - Amal Saad-Hussein
- Environment and Climate Change Research Institute, National Research Centre, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Mohammed Shaheen
- Damour for Community Development - Research Department, Palestine
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
| | - George Christophides
- Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus; Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
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5
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Georgiades P, Ezhova E, Räty M, Orlov D, Kulmala M, Lelieveld J, Malkhazova S, Erguler K, Petäjä T. The impact of climatic factors on tick-related hospital visits and borreliosis incidence rates in European Russia. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0269846. [PMID: 35857740 PMCID: PMC9299338 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0269846] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2021] [Accepted: 05/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Tick-borne diseases are among the challenges associated with warming climate. Many studies predict, and already note, expansion of ticks’ habitats to the north, bringing previously non-endemic diseases, such as borreliosis and encephalitis, to the new areas. In addition, higher temperatures accelerate phases of ticks’ development in areas where ticks have established populations. Earlier works have shown that meteorological parameters, such as temperature and humidity influence ticks’ survival and define their areas of habitat. Here, we study the link between climatic parameters and tick-related hospital visits as well as borreliosis incidence rates focusing on European Russia. We have used yearly incidence rates of borreliosis spanning a period of 20 years (1997-2016) and weekly tick-related hospital visits spanning two years (2018-2019). We identify regions in Russia characterized by similar dynamics of incidence rates and dominating tick species. For each cluster, we find a set of climatic parameters that are significantly correlated with the incidence rates, though a linear regression approach using exclusively climatic parameters to incidence prediction was less than 50% effective. On a weekly timescale, we find correlations of different climatic parameters with hospital visits. Finally, we trained two long short-term memory neural network models to project the tick-related hospital visits until the end of the century, under the RCP8.5 climate scenario, and present our findings in the evolution of the tick season length for different regions in Russia. Our results show that the regions with an expected increase in both tick season length and borreliosis incidence rates are located in the southern forested areas of European Russia. Oppositely, our projections suggest no prolongation of the tick season length in the northern areas with already established tick population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pantelis Georgiades
- Environmental Predictions Department, Climate and Atmosphere Research Centre, The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Ekaterina Ezhova
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR), Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Meri Räty
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR), Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Dmitry Orlov
- Department of Biogeography, Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Markku Kulmala
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR), Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Jos Lelieveld
- Environmental Predictions Department, Climate and Atmosphere Research Centre, The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
- Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
| | - Svetlana Malkhazova
- Department of Biogeography, Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
| | - Kamil Erguler
- Environmental Predictions Department, Climate and Atmosphere Research Centre, The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Tuukka Petäjä
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR), Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- * E-mail:
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6
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Erguler K, Mendel J, Petrić DV, Petrić M, Kavran M, Demirok MC, Gunay F, Georgiades P, Alten B, Lelieveld J. A dynamically structured matrix population model for insect life histories observed under variable environmental conditions. Sci Rep 2022; 12:11587. [PMID: 35804074 PMCID: PMC9270365 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-15806-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2022] [Accepted: 06/29/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Various environmental drivers influence life processes of insect vectors that transmit human disease. Life histories observed under experimental conditions can reveal such complex links; however, designing informative experiments for insects is challenging. Furthermore, inferences obtained under controlled conditions often extrapolate poorly to field conditions. Here, we introduce a pseudo-stage-structured population dynamics model to describe insect development as a renewal process with variable rates. The model permits representing realistic life stage durations under constant and variable environmental conditions. Using the model, we demonstrate how random environmental variations result in fluctuating development rates and affect stage duration. We apply the model to infer environmental dependencies from the life history observations of two common disease vectors, the southern (Culex quinquefasciatus) and northern (Culex pipiens) house mosquito. We identify photoperiod, in addition to temperature, as pivotal in regulating larva stage duration, and find that carefully timed life history observations under semi-field conditions accurately predict insect development throughout the year. The approach we describe augments existing methods of life table design and analysis, and contributes to the development of large-scale climate- and environment-driven population dynamics models for important disease vectors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kamil Erguler
- The Cyprus Institute, Climate and Atmosphere Research Centre (CARE-C), 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, 2121, Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus.
| | - Jacob Mendel
- Department of Medical Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Dušan Veljko Petrić
- Laboratory for Medical and Veterinary Entomology, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, 21000, Novi Sad, Serbia
| | | | - Mihaela Kavran
- Laboratory for Medical and Veterinary Entomology, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, 21000, Novi Sad, Serbia
| | - Murat Can Demirok
- Biology Department, Ecology Division, VERG Laboratories, Faculty of Science, Hacettepe University, 06800, Beytepe-Ankara, Turkey
| | - Filiz Gunay
- Biology Department, Ecology Division, VERG Laboratories, Faculty of Science, Hacettepe University, 06800, Beytepe-Ankara, Turkey
| | - Pantelis Georgiades
- The Cyprus Institute, Climate and Atmosphere Research Centre (CARE-C), 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, 2121, Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Bulent Alten
- Biology Department, Ecology Division, VERG Laboratories, Faculty of Science, Hacettepe University, 06800, Beytepe-Ankara, Turkey
| | - Jos Lelieveld
- The Cyprus Institute, Climate and Atmosphere Research Centre (CARE-C), 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, 2121, Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus.,Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, 55128, Mainz, Germany
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7
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Martinou AF, Schäfer SM, Bueno Mari R, Angelidou I, Erguler K, Fawcett J, Ferraguti M, Foussadier R, Gkotsi TV, Martinos CF, Schäfer M, Schaffner F, Peyton JM, Purse BV, Wright DJ, Roy HE. A call to arms: Setting the framework for a code of practice for mosquito management in European wetlands. J Appl Ecol 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13631] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Angeliki F. Martinou
- Joint Services Health UnitBritish Forces Cyprus RAF Akrotiri Cyprus
- The Cyprus InstituteAthalassa Campus Aglantzia Cyprus
- Enalia Physis Aglantzia Cyprus
| | | | | | - Ioanna Angelidou
- Joint Services Health UnitBritish Forces Cyprus RAF Akrotiri Cyprus
| | - Kamil Erguler
- The Cyprus InstituteAthalassa Campus Aglantzia Cyprus
| | - James Fawcett
- Joint Services Health UnitBritish Forces Cyprus RAF Akrotiri Cyprus
| | - Martina Ferraguti
- Department of Wetland Ecology Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD‐CSIC) Seville Spain
| | - Rémi Foussadier
- Entente InterdépartementaleRhône‐Alpes pour la Démoustication Chindrieux France
| | | | | | - Martina Schäfer
- Biologisk Myggkontroll Nedre Dalälven Utvecklings AB Gysinge Sweden
| | | | - Jodey M. Peyton
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Wallingford Wallingford UK
| | - Bethan V. Purse
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Wallingford Wallingford UK
| | | | - Helen E. Roy
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Wallingford Wallingford UK
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8
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Hocaoglu MB, Gurkas S, Karaderi T, Taneri B, Erguler K, Barin B, Bilgin EM, Eralp G, Allison M, Findikli N, Boynukalin K, Bahceci M, Naci H, Vincent K, Missmer SA, Becker CM, Zondervan KT, Rahmioglu N. Cyprus Women's Health Research (COHERE) initiative: determining the relative burden of women's health conditions and related co-morbidities in an Eastern Mediterranean population. BMC Womens Health 2019; 19:50. [PMID: 30943949 PMCID: PMC6446287 DOI: 10.1186/s12905-019-0750-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2018] [Accepted: 03/25/2019] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- M B Hocaoglu
- Department of Palliative Care, Policy and Rehabilitation, Cicely Saunders Institute, King's College London, London, UK.,Faculty of Medicine and Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Department of Psychology, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Northern Cyprus
| | - S Gurkas
- Istanbul Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - T Karaderi
- DTU Health Technology, Technical University of Denmark, 2800, Lyngby, Denmark.,Novo Nordisk Foundation Center for Protein Research, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, 2200, Copenhagen, Denmark.,Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Department of Biological Sciences, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Northern Cyprus.,Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - B Taneri
- Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Department of Biological Sciences, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Northern Cyprus.,Institute for Public Health Genomics (IPHG), Department of Genetics and Cell Biology, Research Institute GROW, Faculty of Health, Medicine & Life Sciences, University of Maastricht, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - K Erguler
- Cyprus Women's Health Research Society (CoHERS), Nicosia, Northern Cyprus
| | - B Barin
- EMMES Corporation, Rockville, MD, USA
| | - E M Bilgin
- Bahceci IVF Hospital Cyprus, Bahceci Health Group, Nicosia, Northern Cyprus
| | - G Eralp
- Gunes Women's Health Clinic, Nicosia, Northern Cyprus
| | - M Allison
- Jinomer Women's Health Clinic, Kyrenia, Northern Cyprus
| | | | | | - M Bahceci
- Bahceci Health Group, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - H Naci
- London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK
| | - K Vincent
- Oxford Endometriosis CaRe Centre, Nuffield Department of Women's and Reproductive Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - S A Missmer
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.,Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Biology, College of Human Medicine, Michigan State University, Grand Rapids, MI, USA
| | - C M Becker
- Oxford Endometriosis CaRe Centre, Nuffield Department of Women's and Reproductive Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - K T Zondervan
- Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.,Oxford Endometriosis CaRe Centre, Nuffield Department of Women's and Reproductive Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - N Rahmioglu
- Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. .,Oxford Endometriosis CaRe Centre, Nuffield Department of Women's and Reproductive Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
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9
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Erguler K, Pontiki I, Zittis G, Proestos Y, Christodoulou V, Tsirigotakis N, Antoniou M, Kasap OE, Alten B, Lelieveld J. A climate-driven and field data-assimilated population dynamics model of sand flies. Sci Rep 2019; 9:2469. [PMID: 30792449 PMCID: PMC6385250 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-38994-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2018] [Accepted: 01/10/2019] [Indexed: 01/31/2023] Open
Abstract
Sand flies are responsible for the transmission of leishmaniasis, a neglected tropical disease claiming more than 50,000 lives annually. Leishmaniasis is an emerging health risk in tropical and Mediterranean countries as well as temperate regions in North America and Europe. There is an increasing demand for predicting population dynamics and spreading of sand flies to support management and control, yet phenotypic diversity and complex environmental dependence hamper model development. Here, we present the principles for developing predictive species-specific population dynamics models for important disease vectors. Based on these principles, we developed a sand fly population dynamics model with a generic structure where model parameters are inferred using a surveillance dataset collected from Greece and Cyprus. The model incorporates distinct life stages and explicit dependence on a carefully selected set of environmental variables. The model successfully replicates the observations and demonstrates high predictive capacity on the validation dataset from Turkey. The surveillance datasets inform about biological processes, even in the absence of laboratory experiments. Our findings suggest that the methodology can be applied to other vector species to predict abundance, control dispersion, and help to manage the global burden of vector-borne diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kamil Erguler
- Energy, Environment and Water Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 2121, Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus.
| | - Irene Pontiki
- Energy, Environment and Water Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 2121, Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - George Zittis
- Energy, Environment and Water Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 2121, Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Yiannis Proestos
- Energy, Environment and Water Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 2121, Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Vasiliki Christodoulou
- Laboratory of Clinical Bacteriology, Parasitology, Zoonoses and Geographical Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Crete, Heraklion, Crete, Greece
| | - Nikolaos Tsirigotakis
- Laboratory of Clinical Bacteriology, Parasitology, Zoonoses and Geographical Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Crete, Heraklion, Crete, Greece
| | - Maria Antoniou
- Laboratory of Clinical Bacteriology, Parasitology, Zoonoses and Geographical Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Crete, Heraklion, Crete, Greece
| | - Ozge Erisoz Kasap
- Faculty of Science, Department of Biology, Ecology Section, Hacettepe University, 06800, Beytepe-Ankara, Turkey
| | - Bulent Alten
- Faculty of Science, Department of Biology, Ecology Section, Hacettepe University, 06800, Beytepe-Ankara, Turkey
| | - Jos Lelieveld
- Energy, Environment and Water Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 2121, Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus.,Department of Atmospheric Chemistry, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, D-55128, Mainz, Germany
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10
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Abstract
This article describes the sPop packages implementing the deterministic and stochastic versions of an age-structured discrete-time population dynamics model. The packages enable mechanistic modelling of a population by monitoring the age and development stage of each individual. Survival and development are included as the main effectors and they progress at a user-defined pace: follow a fixed rate, delay for a given time, or progress at an age-dependent manner. The model is implemented in C, Python, and R with a uniform design to ease usage and facilitate adoption. Early versions of the model were previously employed for investigating climate-driven population dynamics of the tiger mosquito and the chikungunya disease spread by this vector. The sPop packages presented in this article enable the use of the model in a range of applications extending from vector-borne diseases towards any age-structured population including plant and animal populations, microbial dynamics, host-pathogen interactions, infectious diseases, and other time-dependent epidemiological processes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kamil Erguler
- The Cyprus Institute, Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, 2121, Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus
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11
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Yamaci RF, Fraser SP, Battaloglu E, Kaya H, Erguler K, Foster CS, Djamgoz MB. Neonatal Nav1.5 protein expression in normal adult human tissues and breast cancer. Pathol Res Pract 2017; 213:900-907. [DOI: 10.1016/j.prp.2017.06.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2016] [Revised: 05/03/2017] [Accepted: 06/04/2017] [Indexed: 01/15/2023]
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12
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Erguler K, Chandra NL, Proestos Y, Lelieveld J, Christophides GK, Parham PE. A large-scale stochastic spatiotemporal model for Aedes albopictus-borne chikungunya epidemiology. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0174293. [PMID: 28362820 PMCID: PMC5375158 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0174293] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2016] [Accepted: 03/07/2017] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Chikungunya is a viral disease transmitted to humans primarily via the bites of infected Aedes mosquitoes. The virus caused a major epidemic in the Indian Ocean in 2004, affecting millions of inhabitants, while cases have also been observed in Europe since 2007. We developed a stochastic spatiotemporal model of Aedes albopictus-borne chikungunya transmission based on our recently developed environmentally-driven vector population dynamics model. We designed an integrated modelling framework incorporating large-scale gridded climate datasets to investigate disease outbreaks on Reunion Island and in Italy. We performed Bayesian parameter inference on the surveillance data, and investigated the validity and applicability of the underlying biological assumptions. The model successfully represents the outbreak and measures of containment in Italy, suggesting wider applicability in Europe. In its current configuration, the model implies two different viral strains, thus two different outbreaks, for the two-stage Reunion Island epidemic. Characterisation of the posterior distributions indicates a possible relationship between the second larger outbreak on Reunion Island and the Italian outbreak. The model suggests that vector control measures, with different modes of operation, are most effective when applied in combination: adult vector intervention has a high impact but is short-lived, larval intervention has a low impact but is long-lasting, and quarantining infected territories, if applied strictly, is effective in preventing large epidemics. We present a novel approach in analysing chikungunya outbreaks globally using a single environmentally-driven mathematical model. Our study represents a significant step towards developing a globally applicable Ae. albopictus-borne chikungunya transmission model, and introduces a guideline for extending such models to other vector-borne diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kamil Erguler
- Energy, Environment and Water Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus
- * E-mail: (KE); (PEP)
| | - Nastassya L. Chandra
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom
| | - Yiannis Proestos
- Energy, Environment and Water Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Jos Lelieveld
- Energy, Environment and Water Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus
- Department of Atmospheric Chemistry, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, D-55128 Mainz, Germany
| | - George K. Christophides
- Department of Life Sciences, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
- Computation-based Science and Technology Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Paul E. Parham
- Department of Public Health and Policy, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3GL, United Kingdom
- * E-mail: (KE); (PEP)
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Erguler K, Smith-Unna SE, Waldock J, Proestos Y, Christophides GK, Lelieveld J, Parham PE. Large-Scale Modelling of the Environmentally-Driven Population Dynamics of Temperate Aedes albopictus (Skuse). PLoS One 2016; 11:e0149282. [PMID: 26871447 PMCID: PMC4752251 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0149282] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2015] [Accepted: 01/03/2016] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a highly invasive vector species. It is a proven vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses, with the potential to host a further 24 arboviruses. It has recently expanded its geographical range, threatening many countries in the Middle East, Mediterranean, Europe and North America. Here, we investigate the theoretical limitations of its range expansion by developing an environmentally-driven mathematical model of its population dynamics. We focus on the temperate strain of Ae. albopictus and compile a comprehensive literature-based database of physiological parameters. As a novel approach, we link its population dynamics to globally-available environmental datasets by performing inference on all parameters. We adopt a Bayesian approach using experimental data as prior knowledge and the surveillance dataset of Emilia-Romagna, Italy, as evidence. The model accounts for temperature, precipitation, human population density and photoperiod as the main environmental drivers, and, in addition, incorporates the mechanism of diapause and a simple breeding site model. The model demonstrates high predictive skill over the reference region and beyond, confirming most of the current reports of vector presence in Europe. One of the main hypotheses derived from the model is the survival of Ae. albopictus populations through harsh winter conditions. The model, constrained by the environmental datasets, requires that either diapausing eggs or adult vectors have increased cold resistance. The model also suggests that temperature and photoperiod control diapause initiation and termination differentially. We demonstrate that it is possible to account for unobserved properties and constraints, such as differences between laboratory and field conditions, to derive reliable inferences on the environmental dependence of Ae. albopictus populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kamil Erguler
- Energy, Environment and Water Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus
- * E-mail: (KE); (PEP)
| | - Stephanie E. Smith-Unna
- Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EA, United Kingdom
- Sainsbury Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Bateman Street, Cambridge, CB2 1LR, United Kingdom
| | - Joanna Waldock
- Energy, Environment and Water Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus
- Department of Life Sciences, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
| | - Yiannis Proestos
- Computation-based Science and Technology Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - George K. Christophides
- Department of Life Sciences, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
- Computation-based Science and Technology Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Jos Lelieveld
- Energy, Environment and Water Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus
- Department of Atmospheric Chemistry, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, D-55128 Mainz, Germany
| | - Paul E. Parham
- Department of Public Health and Policy, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3GL, United Kingdom
- Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St. Mary’s campus, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom
- * E-mail: (KE); (PEP)
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14
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Pieri M, Stefanou C, Zaravinos A, Erguler K, Stylianou K, Lapathitis G, Karaiskos C, Savva I, Paraskeva R, Dweep H, Sticht C, Anastasiadou N, Zouvani I, Goumenos D, Felekkis K, Saleem M, Voskarides K, Gretz N, Deltas C. Evidence for activation of the unfolded protein response in collagen IV nephropathies. J Am Soc Nephrol 2013; 25:260-75. [PMID: 24262798 DOI: 10.1681/asn.2012121217] [Citation(s) in RCA: 63] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Thin-basement-membrane nephropathy (TBMN) and Alport syndrome (AS) are progressive collagen IV nephropathies caused by mutations in COL4A3/A4/A5 genes. These nephropathies invariably present with microscopic hematuria and frequently progress to proteinuria and CKD or ESRD during long-term follow-up. Nonetheless, the exact molecular mechanisms by which these mutations exert their deleterious effects on the glomerulus remain elusive. We hypothesized that defective trafficking of the COL4A3 chain causes a strong intracellular effect on the cell responsible for COL4A3 expression, the podocyte. To this end, we overexpressed normal and mutant COL4A3 chains (G1334E mutation) in human undifferentiated podocytes and tested their effects in various intracellular pathways using a microarray approach. COL4A3 overexpression in the podocyte caused chain retention in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) that was associated with activation of unfolded protein response (UPR)-related markers of ER stress. Notably, the overexpression of normal or mutant COL4A3 chains differentially activated the UPR pathway. Similar results were observed in a novel knockin mouse carrying the Col4a3-G1332E mutation, which produced a phenotype consistent with AS, and in biopsy specimens from patients with TBMN carrying a heterozygous COL4A3-G1334E mutation. These results suggest that ER stress arising from defective localization of collagen IV chains in human podocytes contributes to the pathogenesis of TBMN and AS through activation of the UPR, a finding that may pave the way for novel therapeutic interventions for a variety of collagenopathies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Myrtani Pieri
- Molecular Medicine Research Center, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus
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15
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Legendre C, Cohen D, Delmas Y, Feldkamp T, Fouque D, Furman R, Gaber O, Greenbaum L, Goodship T, Haller H, Herthelius M, Hourmant M, Licht C, Moulin B, Sheerin N, Trivelli A, Bedrosian CL, Loirat C, Legendre C, Babu S, Cohen D, Delmas Y, Furman R, Gaber O, Greenbaum L, Hourmant M, Jungraithmayr T, Lebranchu Y, Riedl M, Sheerin N, Bedrosian CL, Loirat C, Sheerin N, Legendre C, Greenbaum L, Furman R, Cohen D, Gaber AO, Bedrosian C, Loirat C, Haller H, Licht C, Muus P, Legendre C, Douglas K, Hourmant M, Herthelius M, Trivelli A, Goodship T, Remuzzi G, Bedrosian C, Loirat C, Kourouklaris A, Ioannou K, Athanasiou I, Demetriou K, Panagidou A, Zavros M, Rodriguez C NY, Blasco M, Arcal C, Quintana LF, Rodriguez de Cordoba S, Campistol JM, Bachmann N, Eisenberger T, Decker C, Bolz HJ, Bergmann C, Pesce F, Cox SN, Serino G, De Palma G, Sallustio FP, Schena F, Falchi M, Pieri M, Stefanou C, Zaravinos A, Erguler K, Lapathitis G, Dweep H, Sticht C, Anastasiadou N, Zouvani I, Voskarides K, Gretz N, Deltas CC, Ruiz A, Bonny O, Sallustio F, Serino G, Curci C, Cox S, De Palma G, Schena F, Kemter E, Sklenak S, Aigner B, Wanke R, Kitzler TM, Moskowitz JL, Piret SE, Lhotta K, Tashman A, Velez E, Thakker RV, Kotanko P, Leierer J, Rudnicki M, Perco P, Koppelstaetter C, Mayer G, Sa MJN, Alves S, Storey H, Flinter F, Willems PJ, Carvalho F, Oliveira J, Arsali M, Papazachariou L, Demosthenous P, Lazarou A, Hadjigavriel M, Stavrou C, Yioukkas L, Voskarides K, Deltas C, Zavros M, Pierides A, Arsali M, Demosthenous P, Papazachariou L, Voskarides K, Kkolou M, Hadjigavriel M, Zavros M, Deltas C, Pierides A, Toka HR, Dibartolo S, Lanske B, Brown EM, Pollak MR, Familiari A, Zavan B, Sanna Cherchi S, Fabris A, Cristofaro R, Gambaro G, D'Angelo A, Anglani F, Toka H, Mount D, Pollak M, Curhan G, Sengoge G, Bajari T, Kupczok A, von Haeseler A, Schuster M, Pfaller W, Jennings P, Weltermann A, Blake S, Sunder-Plassmann G, Kerti A, Csohany R, Wagner L, Javorszky E, Maka E, Tulassay T, Tory K, Kingswood J, Nikolskaya N, Mbundi J, Kingswood J, Jozwiak S, Belousova E, Frost M, Kuperman R, Bebin M, Korf B, Flamini R, Kohrman M, Sparagana S, Wu J, Brechenmacher T, Stein K, Bissler J, Franz D, Kingswood J, Zonnenberg B, Frost M, Cheung W, Wang J, Brechenmacher T, Lam D, Bissler J, Budde K, Ivanitskiy L, Sowershaewa E, Krasnova T, Samokhodskaya L, Safarikova M, Jana R, Jitka S, Obeidova L, Kohoutova M, Tesar V, Evrengul H, Ertan P, Serdaroglu E, Yuksel S, Mir S, Yang n Ergon E, Berdeli A, Zawada A, Rogacev K, Rotter B, Winter P, Fliser D, Heine G, Bataille S, Moal V, Berland Y, Daniel L, Rosado C, Bueno E, Fraile P, Lucas C, Garcoa-Cosmes P, Tabernero JM, Gonzalez R, Rosado C, Bueno E, Fraile P, Lucas C, Garcia-Cosmes P, Tabernero JM, Gonzalez R, Silska-Dittmar M, Zaorska K, Malke A, Musielak A, Ostalska-Nowicka D, Zachwieja J, K d r V, Uz E, Yigit A, Altuntas A, Yigit B, Inal S, Uz E, Sezer M, Yilmaz R, Visciano B, Porto C, Acampora E, Russo R, Riccio E, Capuano I, Parenti G, Pisani A, Feriozzi S, Perrin A, West M, Nicholls K, Sunder-Plassmann G, Torras J, Cybulla M, Conti M, Angioi A, Floris M, Melis P, Asunis AM, Piras D, Pani A, Warnock D, Guasch A, Thomas C, Wanner C, Campbell R, Vujkovac B, Okur I, Biberoglu G, Ezgu F, Tumer L, Hasanoglu A, Bicik Z, Akin Y, Mumcuoglu M, Ecder T, Paliouras C, Mattas G, Papagiannis N, Ntetskas G, Lamprianou F, Karvouniaris N, Alivanis P. Genetic diseases and molecular genetics. Nephrol Dial Transplant 2013. [DOI: 10.1093/ndt/gft126] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
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Erguler K, Pieri M, Deltas C. A mathematical model of the unfolded protein stress response reveals the decision mechanism for recovery, adaptation and apoptosis. BMC Syst Biol 2013; 7:16. [PMID: 23433609 PMCID: PMC3695880 DOI: 10.1186/1752-0509-7-16] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/22/2012] [Accepted: 01/28/2013] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
Background The unfolded protein response (UPR) is a major signalling cascade acting in the quality control of protein folding in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER). The cascade is known to play an accessory role in a range of genetic and environmental disorders including neurodegenerative and cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and kidney diseases. The three major receptors of the ER stress involved with the UPR, i.e. IRE1 α, PERK and ATF6, signal through a complex web of pathways to convey an appropriate response. The emerging behaviour ranges from adaptive to maladaptive depending on the severity of unfolded protein accumulation in the ER; however, the decision mechanism for the switch and its timing have so far been poorly understood. Results Here, we propose a mechanism by which the UPR outcome switches between survival and death. We compose a mathematical model integrating the three signalling branches, and perform a comprehensive bifurcation analysis to investigate possible responses to stimuli. The analysis reveals three distinct states of behaviour, low, high and intermediate activity, associated with stress adaptation, tolerance, and the initiation of apoptosis. The decision to adapt or destruct can, therefore, be understood as a dynamic process where the balance between the stress and the folding capacity of the ER plays a pivotal role in managing the delivery of the most appropriate response. The model demonstrates for the first time that the UPR is capable of generating oscillations in translation attenuation and the apoptotic signals, and this is supplemented with a Bayesian sensitivity analysis identifying a set of parameters controlling this behaviour. Conclusions This work contributes largely to the understanding of one of the most ubiquitous signalling pathways involved in protein folding quality control in the metazoan ER. The insights gained have direct consequences on the management of many UPR-related diseases, revealing, in addition, an extended list of candidate disease modifiers. Demonstration of stress adaptation sheds light to how preconditioning might be beneficial in manifesting the UPR outcome to prevent untimely apoptosis, and paves the way to novel approaches for the treatment of many UPR-related conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kamil Erguler
- Molecular Medicine Research Center and Laboratory of Molecular and Medical Genetics, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cyprus, Kallipoleos 75, 1678 Nicosia, Cyprus.
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17
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Papagregoriou G, Erguler K, Dweep H, Voskarides K, Koupepidou P, Athanasiou Y, Pierides A, Gretz N, Felekkis KN, Deltas C. A miR-1207-5p binding site polymorphism abolishes regulation of HBEGF and is associated with disease severity in CFHR5 nephropathy. PLoS One 2012; 7:e31021. [PMID: 22319602 PMCID: PMC3271095 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0031021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2011] [Accepted: 12/31/2011] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Heparin binding epidermal growth factor (HBEGF) is expressed in podocytes and was shown to play a role in glomerular physiology. MicroRNA binding sites on the 3′UTR of HBEGF were predicted using miRWalk algorithm and followed by DNA sequencing in 103 patients diagnosed with mild or severe glomerulopathy. A single nucleotide polymorphism, miRSNP C1936T (rs13385), was identified at the 3′UTR of HBEGF that corresponds to the second base of the hsa-miR-1207-5p seed region. When AB8/13 undifferentiated podocytes were transfected with miRNA mimics of hsa-miR-1207-5p, the HBEGF protein levels were reduced by about 50%. A DNA fragment containing the miRSNP allele-1936C was cloned into the pMIR-Report Luciferase vector and co-transfected with miRNA mimics of hsa-miR-1207-5p into AB8/13 podocytes. In agreement with western blot data, this resulted in reduced luciferase expression demonstrating the ability of hsa-miR-1207-5p to directly regulate HBEGF expression. On the contrary, in the presence of the miRSNP 1936T allele, this regulation was abolished. Collectively, these results demonstrate that variant 1936T of this miRSNP prevents hsa-miR-1207-5p from down-regulating HBEGF in podocytes. We hypothesized that this variant has a functional role as a genetic modifier. To this end, we showed that in a cohort of 78 patients diagnosed with CFHR5 nephropathy (also known as C3-glomerulopathy), inheritance of miRSNP 1936T allele was significantly increased in the group demonstrating progression to chronic renal failure on long follow-up. No similar association was detected in a cohort of patients with thin basement membrane nephropathy. This is the first report associating a miRSNP as genetic modifier to a monogenic renal disorder.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gregory Papagregoriou
- Molecular Medicine Research Center and Laboratory of Molecular and Medical Genetics, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Kamil Erguler
- Molecular Medicine Research Center and Laboratory of Molecular and Medical Genetics, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Harsh Dweep
- Medical Research Center, University of Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Konstantinos Voskarides
- Molecular Medicine Research Center and Laboratory of Molecular and Medical Genetics, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Panayiota Koupepidou
- Molecular Medicine Research Center and Laboratory of Molecular and Medical Genetics, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | | | - Alkis Pierides
- Department of Nephrology, Hippocrateon Hospital, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Norbert Gretz
- Medical Research Center, University of Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Kyriacos N. Felekkis
- Department of Life and Health Sciences, University of Nicosia, Nicosia, Cyprus
- * E-mail: (KNF); (CD)
| | - Constantinos Deltas
- Molecular Medicine Research Center and Laboratory of Molecular and Medical Genetics, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus
- * E-mail: (KNF); (CD)
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Erguler K, Stumpf MPH. Practical limits for reverse engineering of dynamical systems: a statistical analysis of sensitivity and parameter inferability in systems biology models. Mol Biosyst 2011; 7:1593-602. [PMID: 21380410 DOI: 10.1039/c0mb00107d] [Citation(s) in RCA: 75] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
The size and complexity of cellular systems make building predictive models an extremely difficult task. In principle dynamical time-course data can be used to elucidate the structure of the underlying molecular mechanisms, but a central and recurring problem is that many and very different models can be fitted to experimental data, especially when the latter are limited and subject to noise. Even given a model, estimating its parameters remains challenging in real-world systems. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of 180 systems biology models, which allows us to classify the parameters with respect to their contribution to the overall dynamical behaviour of the different systems. Our results reveal candidate elements of control in biochemical pathways that differentially contribute to dynamics. We introduce sensitivity profiles that concisely characterize parameter sensitivity and demonstrate how this can be connected to variability in data. Systematically linking data and model sloppiness allows us to extract features of dynamical systems that determine how well parameters can be estimated from time-course measurements, and associates the extent of data required for parameter inference with the model structure, and also with the global dynamical state of the system. The comprehensive analysis of so many systems biology models reaffirms the inability to estimate precisely most model or kinetic parameters as a generic feature of dynamical systems, and provides safe guidelines for performing better inferences and model predictions in the context of reverse engineering of mathematical models for biological systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kamil Erguler
- Centre for Bioinformatics, Imperial College London, UK.
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Liepe J, Barnes C, Cule E, Erguler K, Kirk P, Toni T, Stumpf MPH. ABC-SysBio--approximate Bayesian computation in Python with GPU support. Bioinformatics 2010; 26:1797-9. [PMID: 20591907 PMCID: PMC2894518 DOI: 10.1093/bioinformatics/btq278] [Citation(s) in RCA: 104] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2010] [Revised: 04/16/2010] [Accepted: 05/24/2010] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
MOTIVATION The growing field of systems biology has driven demand for flexible tools to model and simulate biological systems. Two established problems in the modeling of biological processes are model selection and the estimation of associated parameters. A number of statistical approaches, both frequentist and Bayesian, have been proposed to answer these questions. RESULTS Here we present a Python package, ABC-SysBio, that implements parameter inference and model selection for dynamical systems in an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework. ABC-SysBio combines three algorithms: ABC rejection sampler, ABC SMC for parameter inference and ABC SMC for model selection. It is designed to work with models written in Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML). Deterministic and stochastic models can be analyzed in ABC-SysBio. AVAILABILITY http://abc-sysbio.sourceforge.net
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Affiliation(s)
- Juliane Liepe
- Centre for Bioinformatics, Division of Molecular Biosciences, Imperial College London, London, UK
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20
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Mycielska ME, Broke-Smith TP, Palmer CP, Beckerman R, Nastos T, Erguler K, Djamgoz MBA. Citrate enhances in vitro metastatic behaviours of PC-3M human prostate cancer cells: Status of endogenous citrate and dependence on aconitase and fatty acid synthase. Int J Biochem Cell Biol 2006; 38:1766-77. [PMID: 16798056 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocel.2006.04.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2006] [Revised: 04/14/2006] [Accepted: 04/25/2006] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
Prostate is a unique organ that produces and releases large amounts of citrate. This is reduced significantly in cancer and it is possible that citrate is (re)taken up and used as a metabolite to enhance cellular activity. The main purpose of this study was to determine how cytosolic citrate might affect in vitro metastatic cell behaviours (lateral motility, endocytosis and adhesion). Normal (PNT2-C2) and metastatic (PC-3M) human prostate cancer cells were used in a comparative approach. As regards intermediary metabolic enzymes, aconitase and fatty acid synthase, already implicated in prostate cancer, were evaluated. The level of intracellular citrate was significantly higher in PNT2-C2 cells under both control conditions and following preincubation in extracellular citrate. Supply of exogenous citrate enhanced endocytosis, lateral motility, decreased cell adhesion of PC-3M cells but failed to produce any effect on normal cells. Real-time PCR measurements showed that the mRNA levels of mitochondrial and cytosolic aconitases and fatty acid synthase were significantly higher in PC-3M cells. Correspondingly, aconitase activity was also higher in PC-3M cells. Using cerulenin (an inhibitor of fatty acid synthase), oxalomalate and fluorocitrate (inhibiting aconitases), we investigated the dependence of citrate-induced down-regulation of cellular adhesion on aconitase and fatty acid synthase activities. It was concluded: (1) that strongly metastatic PC-3M cells stored less/utilised more cytosolic citrate than the normal PNT2-C2 cells and (2) that cancer cells could metabolise cytoplasmic citrate via aconitase and fatty acid synthase to enhance their metastatic behaviour.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria E Mycielska
- Divison of Cell & Molecular Biology, Neuroscience Solutions to Cancer Research Group, Sir Alexander Fleming Building, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, UK.
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